Avaliaçāo preliminar do estado da exploraçāo de Kapenta (Limnothrissa miodon, Boulenger 1906), em cahora bassa com base em dados históricos de captura e esforço de 1995-2000

The fishing of kapenta (Limnothrissa miodon, Boulenger 1906) on the Cahora Bassa Dam started around 1992, when considerable stocks of this species were discovered in the lake. The species is believed to have successful established in the Dam following a natural introduction through a downstream movement from Kariba dam where it was introduced in 1967/68. Fisheries statistics on the kapenta fishery have been collected since 1993 by the Ministry of Fisheries through the Provincial Offices for Fisheries Administration of Tete (SPAP - Tete) but only data from 1995 onward are available on the database of the Ministry of Fisheries and these are the data that was used for compiling the present report on which trends of fishing effort, catch and CPUE are analyzed. Catch and effort have increased with time, from a minimum of the 4 thousand metric tons for an annual fishing effort of 36 fishing rigs in 1995 to a maximum of 12 tons for a fishing effort of 135 rigs while CPUE followed a decreasing trend during the same period. Correlation analysis between catch and effort suggests that probably environmental factors may have influence on catch variation than the increase on fishing effort. Two models were applied for calculating MSY and FMSY resulting in two pairs of roof leading to two scenario of fisheries management. 10137 tons and a FMSY of 177 fishing rigs were computed using Schaefer model while 11690 tons and a FMSY of 278 were obtained using Fox model. Considering the differences between the two results and considering the fact that the two models have no differences in terms of precision and the fact that their determination coefficient are not different it is suggested, using the precautionary principle that result from Schaefer model be a adopted for fisheries management purpose.

Rule-based grapheme-to-phoneme method for the Greek

This paper describes a trainable method for generating letter to sound rules for the Greek language, for producing the pronunciation of out-of-vocabulary words. Several approaches have been adopted over the years for grapheme-to-phoneme conversion, such as hand-seeded rules, finite state transducers, neural networks, HMMs etc, nevertheless it has been proved that the most reliable method is a rule-based one. Our approach is based on a semi-automatically pre-transcribed lexicon, from which we derived rules for automatic transcription. The efficiency and robustness of our method are proved by experiments on out-of-vocabulary words which resulted in over than 98% accuracy on a word-base criterion.

Analysis of the energies of the triple base triplets

Sixty-four sets of three-dimensional models of DNA triplex base triplets (TBT) were built up based on codons by homologous modeling method and their energies were minimized. According to sequence of TBT and orientation of the third ODN strand third, the energies of monomers and water-K+-TBT ternary complexes of TBT were analyzed. The results showed: (i) The energies of the symmetric parallel monomers are generally lower than those of the symmetric anti-parallel monomers of TBT, but the energies of the symmetric parallel ternary complexes are higher than those of the symmetric anti-parallel ternary complexes of TBT. (ii) No matter TBTs are monomers or ternary complexes, the energies of asymmetric parallel TBTs are generally lower than those of the asymmetric anti-parallel ones. (iii) Although the energies of the parallel TBTs are correlated with those of the anti-parallel ones, the energy differences are significant between them. The results here suggest the sequences of TBTs and the orientations of the third ODN strands are two of the key factors that can influence the formation and stability of TBT. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The comparative analysis of the energies of conjugated triple base triplets and their applications

We built 64 sets of 3D models of DNA triplex base triplets (TBT) and minimized their energies. The TBTs were divided into 32 pairs of conjugated ones on the basis of their sequence characteristic, and the energies of each pair of them were compared and analyzed, the results showed: (i) The duplex DNA of which any strand contains at least a couple of A or T, has a preference for selecting the oligodeoxyribonucleic acid (ODN) strand containing abundant T to form TBT. (ii) The duplex DNA of which any strand contains at least a couple of G or C has a preference for selecting ODN containing abundant G to form symmetric antiparallel TBT, but selecting ODN containing abundant C to form asymmetric parallel TBT. (iii) The duplex DNA of which any strand contains only one of A, T, G or C has a preference for selecting ODN containing abundant pyrimidines (T or C) to form antiparallel TBT. Additionally, two examples of TBTs applications, in designing ODN to form triplex with duplex were presented. The energy calculation result revealed that 15-TCG is the best ligand of the HIV PPT duplex. The comparative analysis of energies of the conjugated TBTs provides directive significance for designing ODN strand that is easy to form triplex in theory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Neuro-Fuzzy genetic system for selection of construction project managers

Choosing a project manager for a construction project—particularly, large projects—is a critical project decision. The selection process involves different criteria and should be in accordance with company policies and project specifications. Traditionally, potential candidates are interviewed and the most qualified are selected in compliance with company priorities and project conditions. Precise computing models that could take various candidates’ information into consideration and then pinpoint the most qualified person with a high degree of accuracy would be beneficial. On the basis of the opinions of experienced construction company managers, this paper, through presenting a fuzzy system, identifies the important criteria in selecting a project manager. The proposed fuzzy system is based on IF-THEN rules; a genetic algorithm improves the overall accuracy as well as the functions used by the fuzzy system to make initial estimates of the cluster centers for fuzzy c-means clustering. Moreover, a back-propagation neutral network method was used to train the system. The optimal measures of the inference parameters were identified by calculating the system’s output error and propagating this error within the system. After specifying the system parameters, the membership function parameters—which by means of clustering and projection were approximated—were tuned with the genetic algorithm. Results from this system in selecting project managers show its high capability in making high-quality personnel predictions

Transducer and base compliance alter the in situ 6 dof force measured from muscle during an isometric contraction in a multi-joint limb.

Although musculoskeletal models are commonly used, validating the muscle actions predicted by such models is often difficult. In situ isometric measurements are a possible solution. The base of the skeleton is immobilized and the endpoint of the limb is rigidly attached to a 6-axis force transducer. Individual muscles are stimulated and the resulting forces and moments recorded. Such analyses generally assume idealized conditions. In this study we have developed an analysis taking into account the compliances due to imperfect fixation of the skeleton, imperfect attachment of the force transducer, and extra degrees of freedom (dof) in the joints that sometimes become necessary in fixed end contractions. We use simulations of the rat hindlimb to illustrate the consequences of such compliances. We show that when the limb is overconstrained, i.e., when there are fewer dof within the limb than are restrained by the skeletal fixation, the compliances of the skeletal fixation and of the transducer attachment can significantly affect measured forces and moments. When the limb dofs and restrained dofs are matched, however, the measured forces and moments are independent of these compliances. We also show that this framework can be used to model limb dofs, so that rather than simply omitting dofs in which a limb does not move (e.g., abduction at the knee), the limited motion of the limb in these dofs can be more realistically modeled as a very low compliance. Finally, we discuss the practical implications of these results to experimental measurements of muscle actions.

An example of the use of neural computing techniques in materials science - The modelling of fatigue thresholds in Ni-base superalloys

Two adaptive numerical modelling techniques have been applied to prediction of fatigue thresholds in Ni-base superalloys. A Bayesian neural network and a neurofuzzy network have been compared, both of which have the ability to automatically adjust the network's complexity to the current dataset. In both cases, despite inevitable data restrictions, threshold values have been modelled with some degree of success. However, it is argued in this paper that the neurofuzzy modelling approach offers real benefits over the use of a classical neural network as the mathematical complexity of the relationships can be restricted to allow for the paucity of data, and the linguistic fuzzy rules produced allow assessment of the model without extensive interrogation and examination using a hypothetical dataset. The additive neurofuzzy network structure means that redundant inputs can be excluded from the model and simple sub-networks produced which represent global output trends. Both of these aspects are important for final verification and validation of the information extracted from the numerical data. In some situations neurofuzzy networks may require less data to produce a stable solution, and may be easier to verify in the light of existing physical understanding because of the production of transparent linguistic rules. © 1999 Elsevier Science S.A.

Base isolated buildings

Appropriate models are essential for guiding the effective design of base-isolated buildings. While simple models suggest some guiding principles, these are often too simple for making any useful predictions of isolation performance. A modeling approach by which predictions of isolation performance may be made is proposed, along with suggestions of how this may be implemented in practice. Use of the approach can lead to better predictions of isolation performance and more effective designs.

Coalition and distribution in fuzzy dynamic supply chain systems

In this paper, two models of coalition and income's distribution in FSCS (fuzzy supply chain systems) are proposed based on the fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cooperative game theory. The fuzzy dynamic coalition choice's recursive equations are constructed in terms of sup-t composition of fuzzy relations, where t is a triangular norm. The existence of the fuzzy relations in FSCS is also proved. On the other hand, the approaches to ascertain the fuzzy coalition through the choice's recursive equations and distribute the fuzzy income in FSCS by the fuzzy Shapley values are also given. These models are discussed in two parts: the fuzzy dynamic coalition choice of different units in FSCS; the fuzzy income's distribution model among different participators in the same coalition. Furthermore, numerical examples are given aiming at illustrating these models., and the results show that these models are feasible and validity in FSCS.

西峰油田特低渗透油藏渗流机理及开发对策研究

Micro-pore-throat, micro-fracture and low permeability are the most obvious characters of Xifeng ultra-low permeability reservoir, and threshold pressure gradient and medium deformation during the period of oilfield developing results non-linear seepage feature of the formation liquid flowing in the porous medium underground. It is impossible to solve some problems in the ultra-low permeability reservoir development by current Darcy filtration theory and development techniques. In the view of the characters of ultra-low permeability and powerful-diagenesis and fracture up-growth, the paper quantitatively characterizes of through-going scope for reservoir parameters together with some materials such as similarity field outcrop, rock core, drilling, well logging and production dynamic, which provides geological base for further development adjustment. Based on the displacement experiment of different kinds of seepage fluid and oil-water two phases, this paper proves the relationship between threshold pressure gradient and formation permeability in experiment and theory, which is power function and its index is about -1. The variation rule and the mechanism of oil-water two phases threshold pressure gradient are studied. At the same time, based on the experiment of medium deformation, the variation rule of formation physical property parameters and the deformation mechanism are researched, and the influential factors on the medium deformation are analyzed systematically. With elastic unsteady filtration theory, nonlinear mathematical models of the steady and unsteady flow of single phase as well as horizontal well flow and oil-water two phases flow are deduced with the influence of nonlinear factors including threshold pressure gradient and media deformation. The influences of nonlinear factors upon well deliverability and reservoir pressure distribution as well as the saturation variation pattern of oil-water front are analyzed. By means of the researches such as reasonable well pattern, reasonable well array ration, artificial fracture length optimization advisable water flood timing and feasibility of advanced water flooding, it is necessary to find out effective techniques in order to improve development result of this kind of reservoir. This research result develops and improves on low-velocity nonlinear seepage theory, and offers ways to study similar kind of reservoir; it is meaningful to the development of the ultra-low permeability oil and gas reservoir.

东海陆架盆地西南部烟囱构造与油气运聚关系研究

In recent years, chimney structure has been proved one of important indicators and a useful guide to major petroleum fields exploration through their exploration history both at home and abroad. Chimney structure, which has been called "gas chimney" or "seismic chimney", is the special fluid-filled fracture swarm, which results from the boiling of active thermal fluid caused by abruptly decreasing of high pressure and high temperature in sedimentary layers of upper lithosphere. Chimney structure is well developed in continental shelf basin of East China Sea, which indicates the great perspectives of petroleum resources there. However, the chimney structure also complicated the petroleum accumulation. So the study of chimney structure on its formation, its effect on occurrence and distribution of petroleum fields is very important not only on theoretical, but also on its applied research. It is for the first time to make a clear definition of chimney structure in this paper, and the existence and practical meaning of chimney structure are illustrated. Firstly, on the viewpoint of exploration, this will amplify exploration area or field, not only in marine, but also on continent. Secondly, this is very important to step-by-step exploration and development of petroleum fields with overpressure. Thirdly, this will provide reference for the study on complex petroleum system with multi-sources, commingled sources and accumulation, multi-stage accumulations, and multi-suits petroleum system in the overlay basin. Fourthly, when the thermal fluid enters the oceanic shallow layer, it can help form gas hydrate under favorable low-temperature and high-pressure conditions. Meanwhile, the thermal fluid with its particular component and thermal content will affect the physical, chemical and ecological environments, which will help solving the problem of global resources and environment. Beginning from the regional tectonic evolution characteristics, this paper discussed the tectonic evolution history of the Taibei depression, then made an dynamical analysis of the tectonic-sedimentary evolution during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic for the East China Sea basin. A numerical model of the tectonic-thermal evolution of the basin via the Basin-Mod technique was carried out and the subsidence-buried history and thermal history of the Taibei depression were inverse calculated: it had undergone a early rapid rift and sag, then three times of uplift and erosion, and finally depressed and been buried. The Taibei depression contains a huge thick clastic sedimentary rock of marine facies, transitional facies and continental facies on the complex basement of ante-Jurassic. It is a part of the back-arc rifting basins occurred during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. The author analyzed the diagenesis and thermal fluid evolution of this area via the observation of cathodoluminescence, scanning electron microscope and thin section, taking advantage of the evidences of magma activities, paleo-geothermics and structural movement, the author concluded that there were at least three tectonic-thermal events and three epochs of thermal-fluid activities; and the three epochs of thermal-fluid activities were directly relative to the first two tectonic-thermal events and were controlled by the generation and expulsion of hydrocarbon in the source rock simultaneously. Based on these, this paper established the corresponding model between the tectonic-thermal events and the thermal-fluid evolution of the Taibei Depression, which becomes the base for the study on the chimney structures. According to the analyses of the gas-isotope, LAM spectrum component of fluid inclusion, geneses of CO_2 components and geneses of hydrocarbon gases, the author preliminarily verified four sources of the thermal fluid in the Taibei Depression: ① dehydration of mud shale compaction, ② expulsion of hydrocarbon in the source rock; ③ CO_2 gas hydro-thermal decomposition of carbonatite; ④magma-derived thermal fluid including the mantle magma water and volatile components (such as H_2O, CO_2, H_2S, SO_2, N_2 and He etc.). On the basis of the vitrinite reflectance (Ro), homogenization temperature of fluid inclusion, interval transit time of major well-logging, mud density of the wells, measured pressure data and the results of previous studies, this paper analyzed the characteristics of the geothermal fields and geo-pressure fields for the various parts in this area, and discussed the transversal distribution of fluid pressure. The Taibei depression on the whole underwent a temperature-loss process from hot basin to cold basin; and locally high thermal anomalies occurred on the regional background of moderate thermal structure. The seal was primarily formed during the middle and late Paleocene. The overpressured system was formed during the middle and late Eocene. The formation of overpressured system in Lishui Sag underwent such an evolutionary process as "form-weaken-strengthen-weaken". Namely, it was formed during the middle and late Eocene, then was weakened in the Oligocene, even partly broken, then strengthened after the Miocene, and finally weakened. The existence of the thermal fluid rich in volatile gas is a physical foundation for the boiling of the fluid, and sharply pressure depletion was the major cause for the boiling of the fluid, which suggests that there exists the condition for thermal fluid to boil. According to the results of the photoelastic simulation and similarity physical experiments, the geological condition and the formation mechanism of chimnestructures are summarized: well compartment is the prerequisite for chimney formation; the boiling of active thermal fluid is the original physical condition for chimney formation; The local place with low stress by tension fault is easy for chimney formation; The way that thermal fluid migrates is one of the important factors which control the types of chimney structures. Based on where the thermal fluid come from and geometrical characteristics of the chimney structures, this paper classified the genetic types of chimney structures, and concluded that there existed three types and six subtypes chimney structures: organic chimney structures generated by the hydrocarbon-bearing thermal fluid in middle-shallow layers, inorganic and commingling-genetic chimney structures generated by thermal fluid in middle-deep layers. According to the seismic profiles interpretations, well logging response analysis and mineralogical and petrological characteristics in the study area, the author summarized the comprehensive identification marks for chimney structures. Especially the horizon velocity analysis method that is established in this paper and takes advantage of interval velocity anomaly is a semi-quantitative and reliable method of chimney structure s identification. It was pointed out in this paper that the occurrence of the chimney structures in the Taibei depression made the mechanism of accumulation complicated. The author provided proof of episodic accumulation of hydrocarbon in this area: The organic component in the boiling inclusion is the trail of petroleum migration, showing the causality between the boiling of thermal fluid and the chimney structures, meanwhile showing the paroxysmal accumulation is an important petroleum accumulation model. Based on the evolutionary characteristics of various types of chimney structures, this paper discussed their relationships with the migration-accumulation of petroleum respectively. At the same time, the author summarized the accumulating-dynamical models associated with chimney structures. The author analyzed such accumulation mechanisms as the facies state, direction, power of petroleum migration, the conditions of trap, the accumulation, leakage and reservation of petroleum, and the distribution rule of petroleum. The author also provides explanation for such practical problems the existence of a lot of mantle-derived CO_2, and its heterogeneous distribution on plane. By study on and recognition for chimney structure, the existence and distribution of much mantle-derived CO_2 found in this area are explained. Caused by tectonic thermal activities, the deep magma with much CO_2-bearing thermal fluid migrate upward along deep fault and chimney structures, which makes two wells within relatively short distance different gas composition, such as in well LF-1 and well LS36-1-1. Meanwhile, the author predicted the distribution of petroleum accumulation belt in middle-shallow layer for this area, pointed out the three favorable exploration areas in future, and provided the scientific and deciding references for future study on the commingling-genetic accumulation of petroleum in middle-deep layer and the new energy-gas hydrate.

认知电位时空模式研究

This report mainly focused on methodology of spatiotemporal patterns (STP) of cognitive potentials or event-related potentials (ERP). The representation of STP of brain wave is an important issue in the research of neural assemblies. This paper described methods of parametric 3D head or brain modeling and its corresponding interpolation for functional imaging based on brain waves. The 3D interpolation method is an extension of cortical imaging technique. It can be used with transformed domain features of brain wave on realistic head or brain models. The simulating results suggests that it is a better method in comparison with the global nearest neighbor technique. A stable and definite STP of brainwave referred as microstate may become basic element for comprehending sophisticated cognitive processes. Fuzzy c-mean algorithm was applied to segmentation STPs of ERP into microstates and corresponding membership functions. The optimal microstate number was estimated with both the trends of objective function against increasing clustering number and the decorrelation technique base don microstate shape similarity. Comparable spatial patterns may occur at different moments in time with fuzzy indices and thus the serial processing limit generated from behavioral methods has been break through. High-resolution frequency domain analysis was carried out with multivariate autoregressive model. Bases on a 3D interpolation mentioned above, visualization of dynamical coordination of cerebral network was realized with magnitude-squared partial coherence. Those technique illustrated with multichannel ERP of 9 subjects when they undertook Strop task. Stroop effects involves several regions during post-perception stage with technique of statistical parameter mapping based F-test [SPM(F)]. As SPM(F) suggested task effects occurred within 100 ms after stimuli presentation involved several sensory regions, it may reflect the top-down processing effect.

Learning World Models in Environments with Manifest Causal Structure

This thesis examines the problem of an autonomous agent learning a causal world model of its environment. Previous approaches to learning causal world models have concentrated on environments that are too "easy" (deterministic finite state machines) or too "hard" (containing much hidden state). We describe a new domain --- environments with manifest causal structure --- for learning. In such environments the agent has an abundance of perceptions of its environment. Specifically, it perceives almost all the relevant information it needs to understand the environment. Many environments of interest have manifest causal structure and we show that an agent can learn the manifest aspects of these environments quickly using straightforward learning techniques. We present a new algorithm to learn a rule-based causal world model from observations in the environment. The learning algorithm includes (1) a low level rule-learning algorithm that converges on a good set of specific rules, (2) a concept learning algorithm that learns concepts by finding completely correlated perceptions, and (3) an algorithm that learns general rules. In addition this thesis examines the problem of finding a good expert from a sequence of experts. Each expert has an "error rate"; we wish to find an expert with a low error rate. However, each expert's error rate and the distribution of error rates are unknown. A new expert-finding algorithm is presented and an upper bound on the expected error rate of the expert is derived.

Description and Theoretical Analysis (Using Schemata) of Planner: A Language for Proving Theorems and Manipulating Models in a Robot

Planner is a formalism for proving theorems and manipulating models in a robot. The formalism is built out of a number of problem-solving primitives together with a hierarchical multiprocess backtrack control structure. Statements can be asserted and perhaps later withdrawn as the state of the world changes. Under BACKTRACK control structure, the hierarchy of activations of functions previously executed is maintained so that it is possible to revert to any previous state. Thus programs can easily manipulate elaborate hypothetical tentative states. In addition PLANNER uses multiprocessing so that there can be multiple loci of changes in state. Goals can be established and dismissed when they are satisfied. The deductive system of PLANNER is subordinate to the hierarchical control structure in order to maintain the desired degree of control. The use of a general-purpose matching language as the basis of the deductive system increases the flexibility of the system. Instead of explicitly naming procedures in calls, procedures can be invoked implicitly by patterns of what the procedure is supposed to accomplish. The language is being applied to solve problems faced by a robot, to write special purpose routines from goal oriented language, to express and prove properties of procedures, to abstract procedures from protocols of their actions, and as a semantic base for English.

Towards Fuzzy Compositional Modelling

X. Fu, Q. Shen and R. Zhao. 'Towards fuzzy compositional modelling,' In Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Fuzzy Systems, 2007, pp. 1233-1238. Sponsorship: EPSRC