Microbial communities in Cerrado soils under native vegetation subjected to prescribed fire and under pasture

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of fire regimes and vegetation cover on the structure and dynamics of soil microbial communities, through phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis. Comparisons were made between native areas with different woody covers ("cerrado stricto sensu" and "campo sujo"), under different fire regimes, and a 20-year-old active palisadegrass pasture in the Central Plateau of Brazil. Microbial biomass was higher in the native plots than in the pasture, and the highest monthly values were observed during the rainy season in the native plots. No significant differences were observed between fire regimes or between communities from the two native vegetation types. However, the principal component (PC) analysis separated the microbial communities by vegetation cover (native x pasture) and season (wet x dry), accounting for 45.8% (PC1 and PC3) and 25.6% (PC2 and PC3), respectively, of the total PLFA variability. Changes in land cover and seasonal rainfall in Cerrado ecosystems have significant effects on the total density of soil microorganisms and on the abundance of microbial groups, especially Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria.

Survival-time analysis of white spruce during spruce budworm defoliation

Abstract

Thyroid antibody status, subclinical hypothyroidism, and the risk of coronary heart disease: an individual participant data analysis.

CONTEXT: Subclinical hypothyroidism has been associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), particularly with thyrotropin levels of 10.0 mIU/L or greater. The measurement of thyroid antibodies helps predict the progression to overt hypothyroidism, but it is unclear whether thyroid autoimmunity independently affects CHD risk. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to compare the CHD risk of subclinical hypothyroidism with and without thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAbs). DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: A MEDLINE and EMBASE search from 1950 to 2011 was conducted for prospective cohorts, reporting baseline thyroid function, antibodies, and CHD outcomes. DATA EXTRACTION: Individual data of 38 274 participants from six cohorts for CHD mortality followed up for 460 333 person-years and 33 394 participants from four cohorts for CHD events. DATA SYNTHESIS: Among 38 274 adults (median age 55 y, 63% women), 1691 (4.4%) had subclinical hypothyroidism, of whom 775 (45.8%) had positive TPOAbs. During follow-up, 1436 participants died of CHD and 3285 had CHD events. Compared with euthyroid individuals, age- and gender-adjusted risks of CHD mortality in subclinical hypothyroidism were similar among individuals with and without TPOAbs [hazard ratio (HR) 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87-1.53 vs HR 1.26, CI 1.01-1.58, P for interaction = .62], as were risks of CHD events (HR 1.16, CI 0.87-1.56 vs HR 1.26, CI 1.02-1.56, P for interaction = .65). Risks of CHD mortality and events increased with higher thyrotropin, but within each stratum, risks did not differ by TPOAb status. CONCLUSIONS: CHD risk associated with subclinical hypothyroidism did not differ by TPOAb status, suggesting that biomarkers of thyroid autoimmunity do not add independent prognostic information for CHD outcomes.

Is the adiposity-associated FTO gene variant related to all-cause mortality independent of adiposity? Meta-analysis of data from 169,551 Caucasian adults.

Previously, a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs9939609, in the FTO gene showed a much stronger association with all-cause mortality than expected from its association with body mass index (BMI), body fat mass index (FMI) and waist circumference (WC). This finding implies that the SNP has strong pleiotropic effects on adiposity and adiposity-independent pathological pathways that leads to increased mortality. To investigate this further, we conducted a meta-analysis of similar data from 34 longitudinal studies including 169,551 adult Caucasians among whom 27,100 died during follow-up. Linear regression showed that the minor allele of the FTO SNP was associated with greater BMI (n = 169,551; 0.32 kg m(-2) ; 95% CI 0.28-0.32, P < 1 × 10(-32) ), WC (n = 152,631; 0.76 cm; 0.68-0.84, P < 1 × 10(-32) ) and FMI (n = 48,192; 0.17 kg m(-2) ; 0.13-0.22, P = 1.0 × 10(-13) ). Cox proportional hazard regression analyses for mortality showed that the hazards ratio (HR) for the minor allele of the FTO SNPs was 1.02 (1.00-1.04, P = 0.097), but the apparent excess risk was eliminated after adjustment for BMI and WC (HR: 1.00; 0.98-1.03, P = 0.662) and for FMI (HR: 1.00; 0.96-1.04, P = 0.932). In conclusion, this study does not support that the FTO SNP is associated with all-cause mortality independently of the adiposity phenotypes.

Pulmonary metastasectomy in colorectal cancer patients with previously resected liver metastasis: pooled analysis.

BACKGROUND: Data addressing the outcomes and patterns of recurrence after pulmonary metastasectomy (PM) in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) and previously resected liver metastasis are limited. METHODS: We searched the PubMed database for studies assessing PM in CRC and gathered individual data for patients who had PM and a previous curative liver resection. The influence of potential factors on overall survival (OS) was analyzed through univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Between 1983 and 2009, 146 patients from five studies underwent PM and had previous liver resection. The median interval from resection of liver metastasis until detection of lung metastasis and the median follow-up from PM were 23 and 48 months, respectively. Five-year OS and recurrence-free survival rates calculated from the date of PM were 54.4 and 29.3 %, respectively. Factors predicting inferior OS in univariate analysis included thoracic lymph node (LN) involvement and size of largest lung nodule ≥2 cm. Adjuvant chemotherapy and whether lung metastasis was detected synchronous or metachronous to liver metastasis had no influence on survival. In multivariate analysis, thoracic LN involvement emerged as the only independent factor (hazard ratio 4.86, 95 % confidence interval 1.56-15.14, p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: PM offers a chance for long-term survival in selected patients with CRC and previously resected liver metastasis. Thoracic LN involvement predicted poor prognosis; therefore, significant efforts should be undertaken for adequate staging of the mediastinum before PM. In addition, adequate intraoperative LN sampling allows proper prognostic stratification and enrollment in novel adjuvant therapy trials.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and fracture risk: a meta-analysis.

IMPORTANCE: Associations between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and fractures are unclear and clinical trials are lacking. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of subclinical thyroid dysfunction with hip, nonspine, spine, or any fractures. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: The databases of MEDLINE and EMBASE (inception to March 26, 2015) were searched without language restrictions for prospective cohort studies with thyroid function data and subsequent fractures. DATA EXTRACTION: Individual participant data were obtained from 13 prospective cohorts in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Japan. Levels of thyroid function were defined as euthyroidism (thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH], 0.45-4.49 mIU/L), subclinical hyperthyroidism (TSH <0.45 mIU/L), and subclinical hypothyroidism (TSH ≥4.50-19.99 mIU/L) with normal thyroxine concentrations. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was hip fracture. Any fractures, nonspine fractures, and clinical spine fractures were secondary outcomes. RESULTS: Among 70,298 participants, 4092 (5.8%) had subclinical hypothyroidism and 2219 (3.2%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. During 762,401 person-years of follow-up, hip fracture occurred in 2975 participants (4.6%; 12 studies), any fracture in 2528 participants (9.0%; 8 studies), nonspine fracture in 2018 participants (8.4%; 8 studies), and spine fracture in 296 participants (1.3%; 6 studies). In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, the hazard ratio (HR) for subclinical hyperthyroidism vs euthyroidism was 1.36 for hip fracture (95% CI, 1.13-1.64; 146 events in 2082 participants vs 2534 in 56,471); for any fracture, HR was 1.28 (95% CI, 1.06-1.53; 121 events in 888 participants vs 2203 in 25,901); for nonspine fracture, HR was 1.16 (95% CI, 0.95-1.41; 107 events in 946 participants vs 1745 in 21,722); and for spine fracture, HR was 1.51 (95% CI, 0.93-2.45; 17 events in 732 participants vs 255 in 20,328). Lower TSH was associated with higher fracture rates: for TSH of less than 0.10 mIU/L, HR was 1.61 for hip fracture (95% CI, 1.21-2.15; 47 events in 510 participants); for any fracture, HR was 1.98 (95% CI, 1.41-2.78; 44 events in 212 participants); for nonspine fracture, HR was 1.61 (95% CI, 0.96-2.71; 32 events in 185 participants); and for spine fracture, HR was 3.57 (95% CI, 1.88-6.78; 8 events in 162 participants). Risks were similar after adjustment for other fracture risk factors. Endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism (excluding thyroid medication users) was associated with HRs of 1.52 (95% CI, 1.19-1.93) for hip fracture, 1.42 (95% CI, 1.16-1.74) for any fracture, and 1.74 (95% CI, 1.01-2.99) for spine fracture. No association was found between subclinical hypothyroidism and fracture risk. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Subclinical hyperthyroidism was associated with an increased risk of hip and other fractures, particularly among those with TSH levels of less than 0.10 mIU/L and those with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism. Further study is needed to determine whether treating subclinical hyperthyroidism can prevent fractures.

Chemotherapy and radiotherapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: an update of the MAC-NPC meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: A previous individual patient data meta-analysis by the Meta-Analysis of Chemotherapy in Nasopharynx Carcinoma (MAC-NPC) collaborative group to assess the addition of chemotherapy to radiotherapy showed that it improves overall survival in nasopharyngeal carcinoma. This benefit was restricted to patients receiving concomitant chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The aim of this study was to update the meta-analysis, include recent trials, and to analyse separately the benefit of concomitant plus adjuvant chemotherapy. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Controlled Trials meta-register, ClinicalTrials.gov, and meeting proceedings to identify published or unpublished randomised trials assessing radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy in patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma and obtained updated data for previously analysed studies. The primary endpoint of interest was overall survival. All trial results were combined and analysed using a fixed-effects model. The statistical analysis plan was pre-specified in a protocol. All data were analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. FINDINGS: We analysed data from 19 trials and 4806 patients. Median follow-up was 7·7 years (IQR 6·2-11·9). We found that the addition of chemotherapy to radiotherapy significantly improved overall survival (hazard ratio [HR] 0·79, 95% CI 0·73-0·86, p<0·0001; absolute benefit at 5 years 6·3%, 95% CI 3·5-9·1). The interaction between treatment effect (benefit of chemotherapy) on overall survival and the timing of chemotherapy was significant (p=0·01) in favour of concomitant plus adjuvant chemotherapy (HR 0·65, 0·56-0·76) and concomitant without adjuvant chemotherapy (0·80, 0·70-0·93) but not adjuvant chemotherapy alone (0·87, 0·68-1·12) or induction chemotherapy alone (0·96, 0·80-1·16). The benefit of the addition of chemotherapy was consistent for all endpoints analysed (all p<0·0001): progression-free survival (HR 0·75, 95% CI 0·69-0·81), locoregional control (0·73, 0·64-0·83), distant control (0·67, 0·59-0·75), and cancer mortality (0·76, 0·69-0·84). INTERPRETATION: Our results confirm that the addition of concomitant chemotherapy to radiotherapy significantly improves survival in patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma. To our knowledge, this is the first analysis that examines the effect of concomitant chemotherapy with and without adjuvant chemotherapy as distinct groups. Further studies on the specific benefits of adjuvant chemotherapy after concomitant chemoradiotherapy are needed. FUNDING: French Ministry of Health (Programme d'actions intégrées de recherche VADS), Ligue Nationale Contre le Cancer, and Sanofi-Aventis.

Subclinical Hypothyroidism and the Risk of Stroke Events and Fatal Stroke: An Individual Participant Data Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to determine the risk of stroke associated with subclinical hypothyroidism. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: Published prospective cohort studies were identified through a systematic search through November 2013 without restrictions in several databases. Unpublished studies were identified through the Thyroid Studies Collaboration. We collected individual participant data on thyroid function and stroke outcome. Euthyroidism was defined as TSH levels of 0.45-4.49 mIU/L, and subclinical hypothyroidism was defined as TSH levels of 4.5-19.9 mIU/L with normal T4 levels. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: We collected individual participant data on 47 573 adults (3451 subclinical hypothyroidism) from 17 cohorts and followed up from 1972-2014 (489 192 person-years). Age- and sex-adjusted pooled hazard ratios (HRs) for participants with subclinical hypothyroidism compared to euthyroidism were 1.05 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91-1.21) for stroke events (combined fatal and nonfatal stroke) and 1.07 (95% CI, 0.80-1.42) for fatal stroke. Stratified by age, the HR for stroke events was 3.32 (95% CI, 1.25-8.80) for individuals aged 18-49 years. There was an increased risk of fatal stroke in the age groups 18-49 and 50-64 years, with a HR of 4.22 (95% CI, 1.08-16.55) and 2.86 (95% CI, 1.31-6.26), respectively (p trend 0.04). We found no increased risk for those 65-79 years old (HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.86-1.18) or ≥ 80 years old (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.79-2.18). There was a pattern of increased risk of fatal stroke with higher TSH concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Although no overall effect of subclinical hypothyroidism on stroke could be demonstrated, an increased risk in subjects younger than 65 years and those with higher TSH concentrations was observed.

Embolic Strokes of Undetermined Source in the Athens Stroke Registry: an Outcome Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Information about outcomes in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (ESUS) patients is unavailable. This study provides a detailed analysis of outcomes of a large ESUS population. METHODS: Data set was derived from the Athens Stroke Registry. ESUS was defined according to the Cryptogenic Stroke/ESUS International Working Group criteria. End points were mortality, stroke recurrence, functional outcome, and a composite cardiovascular end point comprising recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, aortic aneurysm rupture, systemic embolism, or sudden cardiac death. We performed Kaplan-Meier analyses to estimate cumulative probabilities of outcomes by stroke type and Cox-regression to investigate whether stroke type was outcome predictor. RESULTS: 2731 patients were followed-up for a mean of 30.5±24.1months. There were 73 (26.5%) deaths, 60 (21.8%) recurrences, and 78 (28.4%) composite cardiovascular end points in the 275 ESUS patients. The cumulative probability of survival in ESUS was 65.6% (95% confidence intervals [CI], 58.9%-72.2%), significantly higher compared with cardioembolic stroke (38.8%, 95% CI, 34.9%-42.7%). The cumulative probability of stroke recurrence in ESUS was 29.0% (95% CI, 22.3%-35.7%), similar to cardioembolic strokes (26.8%, 95% CI, 22.1%-31.5%), but significantly higher compared with all types of noncardioembolic stroke. One hundred seventy-two (62.5%) ESUS patients had favorable functional outcome compared with 280 (32.2%) in cardioembolic and 303 (60.9%) in large-artery atherosclerotic. ESUS patients had similar risk of composite cardiovascular end point as all other stroke types, with the exception of lacunar strokes, which had significantly lower risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.52-0.94]). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term mortality risk in ESUS is lower compared with cardioembolic strokes, despite similar rates of recurrence and composite cardiovascular end point. Recurrent stroke risk is higher in ESUS than in noncardioembolic strokes.

Predictive ability of heel quantitative ultrasound for incident fractures: an individual-level meta-analysis.

UNLABELLED: The relationship between bone quantitative ultrasound (QUS) and fracture risk was estimated in an individual level data meta-analysis of 9 prospective studies of 46,124 individuals and 3018 incident fractures. Low QUS is associated with an increase in fracture risk, including hip fracture. The association with osteoporotic fracture decreases with time. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this meta-analysis was to investigate the association between parameters of QUS and risk of fracture. METHODS: In an individual-level analysis, we studied participants in nine prospective cohorts from Asia, Europe and North America. Heel broadband ultrasonic attenuation (BUA dB/MHz) and speed of sound (SOS m/s) were measured at baseline. Fractures during follow-up were collected by self-report and in some cohorts confirmed by radiography. An extension of Poisson regression was used to examine the gradient of risk (GR, hazard ratio per 1 SD decrease) between QUS and fracture risk adjusted for age and time since baseline in each cohort. Interactions between QUS and age and time since baseline were explored. RESULTS: Baseline measurements were available in 46,124 men and women, mean age 70 years (range 20-100). Three thousand and eighteen osteoporotic fractures (787 hip fractures) occurred during follow-up of 214,000 person-years. The summary GR for osteoporotic fracture was similar for both BUA (1.45, 95 % confidence intervals (CI) 1.40-1.51) and SOS (1.42, 95 % CI 1.36-1.47). For hip fracture, the respective GRs were 1.69 (95 % CI, 1.56-1.82) and 1.60 (95 % CI, 1.48-1.72). However, the GR was significantly higher for both fracture outcomes at lower baseline BUA and SOS (p < 0.001). The predictive value of QUS was the same for men and women and for all ages (p > 0.20), but the predictive value of both BUA and SOS for osteoporotic fracture decreased with time (p = 0.018 and p = 0.010, respectively). For example, the GR of BUA for osteoporotic fracture, adjusted for age, was 1.51 (95 % CI 1.42-1.61) at 1 year after baseline, but at 5 years, it was 1.36 (95 % CI 1.27-1.46). CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that quantitative ultrasound is an independent predictor of fracture for men and women particularly at low QUS values.

Repetitive Deliberate Fires: Critical Review of the Situation and Proposal of a Follow-Up Process and Systematic Analysis

Deliberate fires appear to be borderless and timeless events creating a serious security problem. There have been many attempts to develop approaches to tackle this problem, but unfortunately acting effectively against deliberate fires has proven a complex challenge. This article reviews the current situation relating to deliberate fires: what do we know, how serious is the situation, how is it being dealt with, and what challenges are faced when developing a systematic and global methodology to tackle the issues? The repetitive nature of some types of deliberate fires will also be discussed. Finally, drawing on the reality of repetition within deliberate fires and encouraged by successes obtained in previous repetitive crimes (such as property crimes or drug trafficking), we will argue that the use of the intelligence process cycle as a framework to allow a follow-up and systematic analysis of fire events is a relevant approach. This is the first article of a series of three articles. This first part is introducing the context and discussing the background issues in order to provide a better underpinning knowledge to managers and policy makers planning on tackling this issue. The second part will present a methodology developed to detect and identify repetitive fire events from a set of data, and the third part will discuss the analyses of these data to produce intelligence.

An interactive web-GIS tool for risk analysis: a case study in the Fella River basin, Italy

This paper presents a prototype of an interactive web-GIS tool for risk analysis of natural hazards, in particular for floods and landslides, based on open-source geospatial software and technologies. The aim of the presented tool is to assist the experts (risk managers) in analysing the impacts and consequences of a certain hazard event in a considered region, providing an essential input to the decision-making process in the selection of risk management strategies by responsible authorities and decision makers. This tool is based on the Boundless (OpenGeo Suite) framework and its client-side environment for prototype development, and it is one of the main modules of a web-based collaborative decision support platform in risk management. Within this platform, the users can import necessary maps and information to analyse areas at risk. Based on provided information and parameters, loss scenarios (amount of damages and number of fatalities) of a hazard event are generated on the fly and visualized interactively within the web-GIS interface of the platform. The annualized risk is calculated based on the combination of resultant loss scenarios with different return periods of the hazard event. The application of this developed prototype is demonstrated using a regional data set from one of the case study sites, Fella River of northeastern Italy, of the Marie Curie ITN CHANGES project.

Analysis of space-time environmental data in complex regions

This thesis develops a comprehensive and a flexible statistical framework for the analysis and detection of space, time and space-time clusters of environmental point data. The developed clustering methods were applied in both simulated datasets and real-world environmental phenomena; however, only the cases of forest fires in Canton of Ticino (Switzerland) and in Portugal are expounded in this document. Normally, environmental phenomena can be modelled as stochastic point processes where each event, e.g. the forest fire ignition point, is characterised by its spatial location and occurrence in time. Additionally, information such as burned area, ignition causes, landuse, topographic, climatic and meteorological features, etc., can also be used to characterise the studied phenomenon. Thereby, the space-time pattern characterisa- tion represents a powerful tool to understand the distribution and behaviour of the events and their correlation with underlying processes, for instance, socio-economic, environmental and meteorological factors. Consequently, we propose a methodology based on the adaptation and application of statistical and fractal point process measures for both global (e.g. the Morisita Index, the Box-counting fractal method, the multifractal formalism and the Ripley's K-function) and local (e.g. Scan Statistics) analysis. Many measures describing the space-time distribution of environmental phenomena have been proposed in a wide variety of disciplines; nevertheless, most of these measures are of global character and do not consider complex spatial constraints, high variability and multivariate nature of the events. Therefore, we proposed an statistical framework that takes into account the complexities of the geographical space, where phenomena take place, by introducing the Validity Domain concept and carrying out clustering analyses in data with different constrained geographical spaces, hence, assessing the relative degree of clustering of the real distribution. Moreover, exclusively to the forest fire case, this research proposes two new methodologies to defining and mapping both the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) described as the interaction zone between burnable vegetation and anthropogenic infrastructures, and the prediction of fire ignition susceptibility. In this regard, the main objective of this Thesis was to carry out a basic statistical/- geospatial research with a strong application part to analyse and to describe complex phenomena as well as to overcome unsolved methodological problems in the characterisation of space-time patterns, in particular, the forest fire occurrences. Thus, this Thesis provides a response to the increasing demand for both environmental monitoring and management tools for the assessment of natural and anthropogenic hazards and risks, sustainable development, retrospective success analysis, etc. The major contributions of this work were presented at national and international conferences and published in 5 scientific journals. National and international collaborations were also established and successfully accomplished. -- Cette thèse développe une méthodologie statistique complète et flexible pour l'analyse et la détection des structures spatiales, temporelles et spatio-temporelles de données environnementales représentées comme de semis de points. Les méthodes ici développées ont été appliquées aux jeux de données simulées autant qu'A des phénomènes environnementaux réels; nonobstant, seulement le cas des feux forestiers dans le Canton du Tessin (la Suisse) et celui de Portugal sont expliqués dans ce document. Normalement, les phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être modélisés comme des processus ponctuels stochastiques ou chaque événement, par ex. les point d'ignition des feux forestiers, est déterminé par son emplacement spatial et son occurrence dans le temps. De plus, des informations tels que la surface bru^lée, les causes d'ignition, l'utilisation du sol, les caractéristiques topographiques, climatiques et météorologiques, etc., peuvent aussi être utilisées pour caractériser le phénomène étudié. Par conséquent, la définition de la structure spatio-temporelle représente un outil puissant pour compren- dre la distribution du phénomène et sa corrélation avec des processus sous-jacents tels que les facteurs socio-économiques, environnementaux et météorologiques. De ce fait, nous proposons une méthodologie basée sur l'adaptation et l'application de mesures statistiques et fractales des processus ponctuels d'analyse global (par ex. l'indice de Morisita, la dimension fractale par comptage de boîtes, le formalisme multifractal et la fonction K de Ripley) et local (par ex. la statistique de scan). Des nombreuses mesures décrivant les structures spatio-temporelles de phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être trouvées dans la littérature. Néanmoins, la plupart de ces mesures sont de caractère global et ne considèrent pas de contraintes spatiales com- plexes, ainsi que la haute variabilité et la nature multivariée des événements. A cet effet, la méthodologie ici proposée prend en compte les complexités de l'espace géographique ou le phénomène a lieu, à travers de l'introduction du concept de Domaine de Validité et l'application des mesures d'analyse spatiale dans des données en présentant différentes contraintes géographiques. Cela permet l'évaluation du degré relatif d'agrégation spatiale/temporelle des structures du phénomène observé. En plus, exclusif au cas de feux forestiers, cette recherche propose aussi deux nouvelles méthodologies pour la définition et la cartographie des zones périurbaines, décrites comme des espaces anthropogéniques à proximité de la végétation sauvage ou de la forêt, et de la prédiction de la susceptibilité à l'ignition de feu. A cet égard, l'objectif principal de cette Thèse a été d'effectuer une recherche statistique/géospatiale avec une forte application dans des cas réels, pour analyser et décrire des phénomènes environnementaux complexes aussi bien que surmonter des problèmes méthodologiques non résolus relatifs à la caractérisation des structures spatio-temporelles, particulièrement, celles des occurrences de feux forestières. Ainsi, cette Thèse fournit une réponse à la demande croissante de la gestion et du monitoring environnemental pour le déploiement d'outils d'évaluation des risques et des dangers naturels et anthro- pogéniques. Les majeures contributions de ce travail ont été présentées aux conférences nationales et internationales, et ont été aussi publiées dans 5 revues internationales avec comité de lecture. Des collaborations nationales et internationales ont été aussi établies et accomplies avec succès.

A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Erwinia amylovora Novel Plasmid pEI70: Complete Sequence, Biogeography, and Role in Aggressiveness in the Fire Blight Phytopathogen

Comparative genomics of several strains of Erwinia amylovora, a plant pathogenic bacterium causal agent of fire blight disease, revealed that its diversity is primarily attributable to the flexible genome comprised of plasmids. We recently identified and sequenced in full a novel 65.8 kb plasmid, called pEI70. Annotation revealed a lack of known virulence-related genes, but found evidence for a unique integrative conjugative element related to that of other plant and human pathogens. Comparative analyses using BLASTN showed that pEI70 is almost entirely included in plasmid pEB102 from E. billingiae, an epiphytic Erwinia of pome fruits, with sequence identities superior to 98%. A duplex PCR assay was developed to survey the prevalence of plasmid pEI70 and also that of pEA29, which had previously been described in several E. amylovora strains. Plasmid pEI70 was found widely dispersed across Europe with frequencies of 5–92%, but it was absent in E. amylovora analyzed populations from outside of Europe. Restriction analysis and hybridization demonstrated that this plasmid was identical in at least 13 strains. Curing E. amylovora strains of pEI70 reduced their aggressiveness on pear, and introducing pEI70 into low-aggressiveness strains lacking this plasmid increased symptoms development in this host. Discovery of this novel plasmid offers new insights into the biogeography, evolution and virulence determinants in E. amylovora