Strategic mass killings

Since World War II there have been about fifty episodes of large-scale mass killings of civilians and massive forced displacements. They were usually meticulously planned and independent of military goals. We provide a model where conflict onset, conflict intensity and the decision to commit mass killings are all endogenous, with two main goals: (1) to identify the key variables and situations that make mass killings more likely to occur; and (2) to distinguish conditions under which mass killings and military conflict intensity reinforce each other from situations where they are substitute modes of strategic violence. We predict that mass killings are most likely in societies with large natural resources, significant proportionality constraints for rent sharing, low productivity and low state capacity. Further, massacres are more likely in a civil than in an interstate war, as in the latter group sizes matter less for future rents. In non polarized societies there are asymmetric equilibria with only the larger group wanting to engage in massacres. In such settings the smaller group compensates for this by fighting harder in the first place. In this case we can talk of mass killings and fighting efforts to be substitutes. In contrast, in polarized societies either both or none of the groups can be ready to do mass killings in case of victory. Under the "shadow of mass killings" groups fight harder. Hence, in this case massacres and fighting are complements. We also present novel empirical results on the role of natural resources in mass killings and on what kinds of ethnic groups are most likely to be victimized in massacres and forced resettlements, using group level panel data.

Can You Home Again? Desertion and Control of Hometowns in Civil Wars

What allows an armed group in a civil war to prevent desertion? This paper addresses this question with a focus on control in the rearguard. Most past studies focus on motivations for desertion. They explain desertion in terms of where soldiers stand in relation to the macro themes of the war, or in terms of an inability to provide positive incentives to overcome the collective action problem. However, since individuals decide whether and how to participate in civil wars for multiple reasons, responding to a variety of local conditions in an environment of threat and violence, a focus only on macro-level motivations is incomplete. The opportunities side of the ledger deserves more attention. I therefore turn my attention to how control by an armed group eliminates soldiers’ opportunities to desert. In particular, I consider the control that an armed group maintains over soldiers’ hometowns, treating geographic terrain as an important exogenous indicator of the ease of control. Rough terrain at home affords soldiers and their families and friends advantages in ease of hiding, the difficulty of using force, and local knowledge. Based on an original dataset of soldiers from Santander Province in the Spanish Civil War, gathered from archival sources, I find statistical evidence that the rougher the terrain in a soldier’s home municipality, the more likely he is to desert. I find complementary qualitative evidence indicating that soldiers from rough-terrain communities took active advantage of their greater opportunities for evasion. This finding has important implications for the way observers interpret different soldiers’ decisions to desert or remain fighting, for the prospect that structural factors may shape the cohesion of armed groups, and for the possibility that local knowledge may be a double-edged sword, making soldiers simultaneously good at fighting and good at deserting.

Anopheles darlingi bionomics and transmission of Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium malariae in Amerindian villages of the Upper-Maroni Amazonian forest, French Guiana

French Guiana is one of the areas in South America most affected by malaria and where the disease has become a serious public health problem. In spite of this situation, little recent entomological data are available from the main localities where the disease occurs, even though they are crucial for development of an effective vector control strategy. A longitudinal entomological survey was carried out from March 2000-February 2002 in three Amerindian villages, namely Twenké, Taluène and Cayodé, located in the Amazonian forest of the Upper-Maroni area, to assess anopheline mosquitoes and malaria transmission dynamics. Anopheles darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae) was the most abundant mosquito species caught during the study. This efficient American malaria vector was active the entire year, but showed an evident peak of abundance during the main rainfall season, from April-June, with an average human biting rate of 255.5 bites per person per night. Parity rates were homogeneous all year, indicating no significant seasonal variability in female survival rates. Estimated vectorial capacity indices were higher during the rainy season, even though the risk of transmission was present throughout the year (VCI > 1). A total of 14 An. darlingi were found infected with Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax or Plasmodium malariae. The annual circumsporozoite indices were 0.15, 0.14 and 0.05, and the entomological inoculation rates were 22.8, 27.4 and 14.4 infected bites per person per year in Twenké, Taluène and Cayodé, respectively. An. darlingiwas endo-exophagic and rather exophilic in these localities. The species was collected throughout the night but was more aggressive between 21:30-03:30 h and after 05:30 h. Parity rates were homogeneous during the entire night. Impregnated hammock and/or bed nets, coupled with the use of mosquito repellents, as well as the early treatment of malarial cases, appear to be the most suitable tools for fighting malaria in these Amerindian villages since the spraying of residual insecticides is inefficient because of vector biology and the housing structure.

War and Natural Resource Exploitation

We build a theoretical framework that allows for endogenous conflict behaviour (i.e., fighting efforts) and for endogenous natural resource exploitation (i.e., speed, ownership, and investments). While depletion is spread in a balanced Hotelling fashion during peace, the presence of conflict creates incentives for rapacious extraction, as this lowers the stakes of future contest. This voracious extraction depresses total oil revenue, especially if world oil demand is relatively elastic and the government's weapon advantage is weak. Some of these political distortions can be overcome by bribing rebels or by government investment in weapons. The shadow of conflict can also make less efficient nationalized oil extraction more attractive than private extraction, as insecure property rights create a holdup problem for the private firm and lead to a lower license fee. Furthermore, the government fights less intensely than the rebels under private exploitation, which leads to more government turnover. Without credible commitment to future fighting efforts, private oil depletion is only lucrative if the government's non-oil office rents are large and weaponry powerful, which guarantees the government a stronger grip on office and makes the holdup problem less severe.

Seeds of distrust: conflict in Uganda

We study the effect of civil conflict on social capital, focusing on Uganda's experience during the last decade. Using individual and county-level data, we document large causal effects on trust and ethnic identity of an exogenous outburst of ethnic conflicts in 2002-2005. We exploit two waves of survey data from Afrobarometer (Round 4 Afrobarometer Survey in Uganda, 2000, 2008), including information on socioeconomic characteristics at the individual level, and geo-referenced measures of fighting events from ACLED. Our identification strategy exploits variations in the both the spatial and ethnic intensity of fighting. We find that more intense fighting decreases generalized trust and increases ethnic identity. The effects are quantitatively large and robust to a number of control variables, alternative measures of violence, and different statistical techniques involving ethnic and spatial fixed effects and instrumental variables. Controlling for the intensity of violence during the conflict, we also document that post-conflict economic recovery is slower in ethnically fractionalized counties. Our findings are consistent with the existence of a self-reinforcing process between conflicts and ethnic cleavages.

The combination of social and personal contexts affects dominance hierarchy development in shore crabs, Carcinus maenas

Many animals that live in groups maintain competitive relationships, yet avoid continual fighting, by forming dominance hierarchies. We compare predictions of stochastic, individual-based models with empirical experimental evidence using shore crabs to test competing hypotheses regarding hierarchy development. The models test (1) what information individuals use when deciding to fight or retreat, (2) how past experience affects current resource-holding potential, and (3) how individuals deal with changes to the social environment. First, we conclude that crabs assess only their own state and not their opponent's when deciding to fight or retreat. Second, willingness to enter, and performance in, aggressive contests are influenced by previous contest outcomes. Winning increases the likelihood of both fighting and winning future interactions, while losing has the opposite effect. Third, when groups with established dominance hierarchies dissolve and new groups form, individuals reassess their ranks, showing no memory of previous rank or group affiliation. With every change in group composition, individuals fight for their new ranks. This iterative process carries over as groups dissolve and form, which has important implications for the relationship between ability and hierarchy rank. We conclude that dominance hierarchies emerge through an interaction of individual and social factors, and discuss these findings in terms of an underlying mechanism. Overall, our results are consistent with crabs using a cumulative assessment strategy iterated across changes in group composition, in which aggression is constrained by an absolute threshold in energy spent and damage received while fighting.

Desarrollo y gestión del videojuego The Condemned

The Condemned es un juego de lucha en dos dimensiones desarrollado en Flash CS4 y ActionScript 3. El juego consta de cuatro pantallas, en cada una de ellas el jugador se enfrenta a un enemigo controlado por el ordenador a través de una inteligencia artificial. En la creación de este videojuego se ha pasado por todas las fases de desarrollo: diseño gráfico de personajes y escenarios, programación y control de errores.

Oral Terbinafine and Itraconazole Treatments against Dermatophytes Appear Not to Favor the Establishment of Fusarium spp. in Nail.

Background: Fusarium onychomycoses are weakly responsive or unresponsive to standard onychomycosis treatments with oral terbinafine and itraconazole. Objective: To examine whether the use of terbinafine and itraconazole, which are highly effective in fighting Trichophyton onychomycoses, could be a cause of the high incidence of Fusarium nail infections. Methods: Polymerase chain reaction methods were used to detect both Fusarium spp. and Trichophyton spp. in nails of patients who had either received treatment previously or not. Results: No significant microbiological differences were found between treated and untreated patients. In 24 of 79 cases (30%), Fusarium spp. was detected in samples of patients having had no previous antifungal therapy and when Trichophyton spp. grew in culture. Conclusion: Oral terbinafine and itraconazole treatments do not appear to favor the establishment of Fusarium spp. in onychomycosis. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A Walrasian theory of commodity money: Paradoxical results

The objective of this note is to analyze some implications of the model of commodity money described in Banerjee and Maskin (1996) which may seem paradoxical. In order to do this, we incorporate a general production cost structure into the model. We focus on two different results. First, the existence of technologies that make counterfeiting a commodity more difficult may exclude it from being used as medium of exchange. Second, allocative distortions due to problems of asymmetric information may become larger in the presence of such technologies.

DIGITAL LIBRARY FOR DIGITAL DIVIDE AND ENVIRONMENT OF SCARCE ACCESS TO PRINTED MATERIALS: THE CASE OF UNIVERSITY JEAN PIAGET OF CAPE VERDE

With the failure of the traditional mechanisms of distributing bibliographic materials into developing countries, digital libraries show up as a strong alternative in accomplishing such job, despite the challenges of the digital divide. This paper discusses the challenges of building a digital library (DL) in a developing country. The case of Cape Verde as a digital divide country is analyzed, in terms of current digital library usage and its potentiality for fighting the difficulties in accessing bibliographic resources in the country. The paper also introduces an undergoing project of building a digital library at the University Jean Piaget of Cape Verde.

Jugando con Android : acciones

El proyecto global está enfocado al aprendizaje del desarrollo de aplicaciones para el sistema operativo Android. Para ello, se pretende realizar una aplicación a través de la cual se puedan adquirir conocimientos de los diversos componentes que forman la estructura de la plataforma. Con ello, este proyecto pretende también ser una pequeña guía para aquellas personas que, cómo nosotros, pretenden iniciarse en el desarrollo de aplicaciones para Android. La aplicación desarrollada será un juego del género lucha, para uno o dos jugadores en el mismo terminal.

Profiling of counterfeit medicines by vibrational spectroscopy

Counterfeit pharmaceutical products have become a widespread problem in the last decade. Various analytical techniques have been applied to discriminate between genuine and counterfeit products. Among these, Near-infrared (NIR) and Raman spectroscopy provided promising results.The present study offers a methodology allowing to provide more valuable information fororganisations engaged in the fight against counterfeiting of medicines.A database was established by analyzing counterfeits of a particular pharmaceutical product using Near-infrared (NIR) and Raman spectroscopy. Unsupervised chemometric techniques (i.e. principal component analysis - PCA and hierarchical cluster analysis - HCA) were implemented to identify the classes within the datasets. Gas Chromatography coupled to Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) and Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FT-IR) were used to determine the number of different chemical profiles within the counterfeits. A comparison with the classes established by NIR and Raman spectroscopy allowed to evaluate the discriminating power provided by these techniques. Supervised classifiers (i.e. k-Nearest Neighbors, Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis, Probabilistic Neural Networks and Counterpropagation Artificial Neural Networks) were applied on the acquired NIR and Raman spectra and the results were compared to the ones provided by the unsupervised classifiers.The retained strategy for routine applications, founded on the classes identified by NIR and Raman spectroscopy, uses a classification algorithm based on distance measures and Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves. The model is able to compare the spectrum of a new counterfeit with that of previously analyzed products and to determine if a new specimen belongs to one of the existing classes, consequently allowing to establish a link with other counterfeits of the database.

Male body size and breeding tubercles are both linked to intra-sexual dominance and reproductive success in the minnow

Male dominance hierarchies are usually linked to relative body size and to weapon size, that is, to determinants of fighting ability. Secondary sexual characters that are not directly used as weapons could still be linked to dominance if they reveal determination or overall health and vigour and hence, indirectly, fighting ability. We studied the mating behaviour of the minnow, Phoxinus phoxinus, a cyprinid fish in which males develop breeding tubercles during the spawning season. The function of these breeding tubercles is still not clear. Using microsatellite markers, we determined male reproductive success under controlled conditions. The minnows were territorial and quickly established a dominance hierarchy at the beginning of the spawning season. Dominance was strongly and positively linked to fertilization success. Although body size and number of breeding tubercles were not significantly correlated in our sample, both large males and males with many breeding tubercles were more dominant and achieved higher fertilization success than small males or males with few tubercles. We found multimale fertilization in most clutches, suggesting that sperm competition is important in this species. Females showed behaviour that may be linked to spawning decision, that is, male dominance might not be the only determinant of male reproductive success in minnows

Highway Maintenance Concept Vehicle, June 2002

This report documents Phase IV of the Highway Maintenance Concept Vehicle (HMCV) project, a pooled fund study sponsored by the Departments of Transportation of Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This report provides the background, including a brief history of the earlier phases of the project, a systems overview, and descriptions of the research conducted in Phase IV. Finally, the report provides conclusions and recommendations for future research. Background The goal of the Highway Maintenance Concept Vehicle Pooled Fund Study is to provide travelers with the level of service defined by policy during the winter season at the least cost to taxpayers. This goal is to be accomplished by using information regarding actual road conditions to facilitate and adjust snow and ice control activities. The approach used in this study was to bring technology applications from other industries to the highway maintenance vehicle. This approach is evolutionary in that as emerging technologies and applications are found to be acceptable to the pooled fund states and as they appear that to have potential for supporting the study goals they become candidates for our research. The objective of Phase IV is to: Conduct limited deployment of selected technologies from Phase III by equipping a vehicle with proven advanced technologies and creating a mobile test laboratory for collecting road weather data. The research quickly pointed out that investments in winter storm maintenance assets must be based on benefit/cost analysis and related to improving level of service. For example, Iowa has estimated the average cost of fighting a winter storm to be about $60,000 to $70,000 per hour typically. The maintenance concept vehicle will have advanced technology equipment capable of applying precisely the correct amount of material, accurately tailored to the existing and predicted pavement conditions. Hence, a state using advanced technology could expect to have a noticeable impact on the average time taken to establish the winter driving service level. If the concept vehicle and data produced by the vehicle are used to support decision-making leading to reducing material usage and the average time by one hour, a reasonable benefit/cost will result. Data from the friction meter can be used to monitor and adjust snow and ice control activities and inform travelers of pavement surface conditions. Therefore, final selection of successfully performing technologies will be based on the foundation statements and criteria developed by the study team.

The Iowa State Capitol Fire 1904, November 2012

The twenty-first century Iowa State Capitol contains state-of-the-art fire protection. Sprinklers and smoke detectors are located in every room and all public hallways are equipped with nearby hydrants. The Des Moines Fire Department is able to fight fires at nearly any height. However, on Monday morning, January 4, 1904, the circumstances were much different. By the beginning of 1904, the Capitol Improvement Commission had been working in the Capitol for about two years. The commissioners were in charge of decorating the public areas of the building, installing the artwork in the public areas, installing a new copper roof, re-gilding the dome, replacing windows, and connecting electrical lines throughout. Electrician H. Frazer had been working that morning in Committee Room Number Five behind the House Chamber, drilling into the walls to run electrical wires and using a candle to light his way. The investigating committee determined that Frazer had left his work area and had neglected to extinguish his candle. The initial fire alarm sounded at approximately 10 a.m. Many citizen volunteers came to help the fire department. Capitol employees and state officials also assisted in fighting the fire, including Governor Albert Cummins. The fire was finally brought under control around 6 p.m., although some newspaper accounts at the time reported that the fire continued smoldering for several days. Crampton Linley was the engineer working with the Capitol Improvement Commission. He was in the building at the time of the fire and was credited with saving the building. Linley crawled through attic areas to close doors separating wings of the Capitol, an action which smothered the flames and brought the fire under control. Sadly, Linley did not live long enough to be recognized for his heroism. The day after the fire, while examining the damage, Linley fell through the ceiling of the House Chamber and died instantly from severe head injuries. The flames had burned through the ceiling and caused much of it to collapse to the floor below, while the lower areas of the building had been damaged by smoke and water. Elmer Garnsey was the artist hired by the Capitol Improvement Commission to decorate the public areas of the building. Therefore, he seemed the logical candidate to be given the additional responsibility of redecorating the areas damaged by the fire. Garnsey had a very different vision for the decoration, which is why the House Chamber, the old Supreme Court Room, and the old Agriculture offices directly below the House Chamber have a design that is very different from the areas of the building untouched by the fire.