Evaluating the performance of a EuroDivisia index using artificial intelligence techniques

We compare two methods in order to predict inflation rates in Europe. One method uses a standard back propagation neural network and the other uses an evolutionary approach, where the network weights and the network architecture is evolved. Results indicate that back propagation produces superior results. However, the evolving network still produces reasonable results with the advantage that the experimental set-up is minimal. Also of interest is the fact that the Divisia measure of money is superior as a predictive tool over simple sum.

Evaluating the performance of a EuroDivisia index using artificial intelligence techniques

This paper compares two methods to predict in°ation rates in Europe. One method uses a standard back propagation neural network and the other uses an evolutionary approach, where the network weights and the network architecture are evolved. Results indicate that back propagation produces superior results. However, the evolving network still produces reasonable results with the advantage that the experimental set-up is minimal. Also of interest is the fact that the Divisia measure of money is superior as a predictive tool over simple sum.

Online-questionnaire design:establishing guidelines and evaluating existing eupport

As a new medium for questionnaire delivery, the internet has the potential to revolutionise the survey process. Online (web-based) questionnaires provide several advantages over traditional survey methods in terms of cost, speed, appearance, flexibility, functionality, and usability [1, 2]. For instance, delivery is faster, responses are received more quickly, and data collection can be automated or accelerated [1- 3]. Online-questionnaires can also provide many capabilities not found in traditional paper-based questionnaires: they can include pop-up instructions and error messages; they can incorporate links; and it is possible to encode difficult skip patterns making such patterns virtually invisible to respondents. Like many new technologies, however, online-questionnaires face criticism despite their advantages. Typically, such criticisms focus on the vulnerability of online-questionnaires to the four standard survey error types: namely, coverage, non-response, sampling, and measurement errors. Although, like all survey errors, coverage error (“the result of not allowing all members of the survey population to have an equal or nonzero chance of being sampled for participation in a survey” [2, pg. 9]) also affects traditional survey methods, it is currently exacerbated in online-questionnaires as a result of the digital divide. That said, many developed countries have reported substantial increases in computer and internet access and/or are targeting this as part of their immediate infrastructural development [4, 5]. Indicating that familiarity with information technologies is increasing, these trends suggest that coverage error will rapidly diminish to an acceptable level (for the developed world at least) in the near future, and in so doing, positively reinforce the advantages of online-questionnaire delivery. The second error type – the non-response error – occurs when individuals fail to respond to the invitation to participate in a survey or abandon a questionnaire before it is completed. Given today’s societal trend towards self-administration [2] the former is inevitable, irrespective of delivery mechanism. Conversely, non-response as a consequence of questionnaire abandonment can be relatively easily addressed. Unlike traditional questionnaires, the delivery mechanism for online-questionnaires makes estimation of questionnaire length and time required for completion difficult1, thus increasing the likelihood of abandonment. By incorporating a range of features into the design of an online questionnaire, it is possible to facilitate such estimation – and indeed, to provide respondents with context sensitive assistance during the response process – and thereby reduce abandonment while eliciting feelings of accomplishment [6]. For online-questionnaires, sampling error (“the result of attempting to survey only some, and not all, of the units in the survey population” [2, pg. 9]) can arise when all but a small portion of the anticipated respondent set is alienated (and so fails to respond) as a result of, for example, disregard for varying connection speeds, bandwidth limitations, browser configurations, monitors, hardware, and user requirements during the questionnaire design process. Similarly, measurement errors (“the result of poor question wording or questions being presented in such a way that inaccurate or uninterpretable answers are obtained” [2, pg. 11]) will lead to respondents becoming confused and frustrated. Sampling, measurement, and non-response errors are likely to occur when an online-questionnaire is poorly designed. Individuals will answer questions incorrectly, abandon questionnaires, and may ultimately refuse to participate in future surveys; thus, the benefit of online questionnaire delivery will not be fully realized. To prevent errors of this kind2, and their consequences, it is extremely important that practical, comprehensive guidelines exist for the design of online questionnaires. Many design guidelines exist for paper-based questionnaire design (e.g. [7-14]); the same is not true for the design of online questionnaires [2, 15, 16]. The research presented in this paper is a first attempt to address this discrepancy. Section 2 describes the derivation of a comprehensive set of guidelines for the design of online-questionnaires and briefly (given space restrictions) outlines the essence of the guidelines themselves. Although online-questionnaires reduce traditional delivery costs (e.g. paper, mail out, and data entry), set up costs can be high given the need to either adopt and acquire training in questionnaire development software or secure the services of a web developer. Neither approach, however, guarantees a good questionnaire (often because the person designing the questionnaire lacks relevant knowledge in questionnaire design). Drawing on existing software evaluation techniques [17, 18], we assessed the extent to which current questionnaire development applications support our guidelines; Section 3 describes the framework used for the evaluation, and Section 4 discusses our findings. Finally, Section 5 concludes with a discussion of further work.

Evaluating the evidence for targeting FOXO3a in breast cancer:a systematic review

Background: Tumour cells show greater dependency on glycolysis so providing a sufficient and rapid energy supply for fast growth. In many breast cancers, estrogen, progesterone and epidermal growth factor receptor-positive cells proliferate in response to growth factors and growth factor antagonists are a mainstay of treatment. However, triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) cells lack receptor expression, are frequently more aggressive and are resistant to growth factor inhibition. Downstream of growth factor receptors, signal transduction proceeds via phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3k), Akt and FOXO3a inhibition, the latter being partly responsible for coordinated increases in glycolysis and apoptosis resistance. FOXO3a may be an attractive therapeutic target for TNBC. Therefore we have undertaken a systematic review of FOXO3a as a target for breast cancer therapeutics. Methods: Articles from NCBI were retrieved systematically when reporting primary data about FOXO3a expression in breast cancer cells after cytotoxic drug treatment. Results: Increased FOXO3a expression is common following cytotoxic drug treatment and is associated with apoptosis and cell cycle arrest. There is some evidence that metabolic enzyme expression is also altered and that this effect is also elicited in TNBC cells. FOXO3a expression serves as a positive prognostic marker, especially in estrogen (ER) receptor positive cells. Discussion: FOXO3a is upregulated by a number of receptor-dependent and -independent anti-cancer drugs and associates with apoptosis. The identification of microRNA that regulate FOXO3a directly suggest that it offers a tangible therapeutic target that merits wider evaluation.

Development and psychometric evaluation of a new team effectiveness scale for all types of community adult mental health teams:a mixed-methods approach

Defining 'effectiveness' in the context of community mental health teams (CMHTs) has become increasingly difficult under the current pattern of provision required in National Health Service mental health services in England. The aim of this study was to establish the characteristics of multi-professional team working effectiveness in adult CMHTs to develop a new measure of CMHT effectiveness. The study was conducted between May and November 2010 and comprised two stages. Stage 1 used a formative evaluative approach based on the Productivity Measurement and Enhancement System to develop the scale with multiple stakeholder groups over a series of qualitative workshops held in various locations across England. Stage 2 analysed responses from a cross-sectional survey of 1500 members in 135 CMHTs from 11 Mental Health Trusts in England to determine the scale's psychometric properties. Based on an analysis of its structural validity and reliability, the resultant 20-item scale demonstrated good psychometric properties and captured one overall latent factor of CMHT effectiveness comprising seven dimensions: improved service user well-being, creative problem-solving, continuous care, inter-team working, respect between professionals, engagement with carers and therapeutic relationships with service users. The scale will be of significant value to CMHTs and healthcare commissioners both nationally and internationally for monitoring, evaluating and improving team functioning in practice.

Methods of Regularities Searching Based on Optimal Partitioning

The purpose of discussed optimal valid partitioning (OVP) methods is uncovering of ordinal or continuous explanatory variables effect on outcome variables of different types. The OVP approach is based on searching partitions of explanatory variables space that in the best way separate observations with different levels of outcomes. Partitions of single variables ranges or two-dimensional admissible areas for pairs of variables are searched inside corresponding families. Statistical validity associated with revealed regularities is estimated with the help of permutation test repeating search of optimal partition for each permuted dataset. Method for output regularities selection is discussed that is based on validity evaluating with the help of two types of permutation tests.

Stochastic control strategies and adaptive critic methods

Adaptive critic methods have common roots as generalizations of dynamic programming for neural reinforcement learning approaches. Since they approximate the dynamic programming solutions, they are potentially suitable for learning in noisy, nonlinear and nonstationary environments. In this study, a novel probabilistic dual heuristic programming (DHP) based adaptive critic controller is proposed. Distinct to current approaches, the proposed probabilistic (DHP) adaptive critic method takes uncertainties of forward model and inverse controller into consideration. Therefore, it is suitable for deterministic and stochastic control problems characterized by functional uncertainty. Theoretical development of the proposed method is validated by analytically evaluating the correct value of the cost function which satisfies the Bellman equation in a linear quadratic control problem. The target value of the critic network is then calculated and shown to be equal to the analytically derived correct value.

Statistical Numerical Methods for Eigenvalue Problem. Parallel Implementation

MSC subject classification: 65C05, 65U05.

Evaluating techniques to improve visual performance with and assessment of premium intraocular lenses

Premium Intraocular Lenses (IOLs) such as toric IOLs, multifocal IOLs (MIOLs) and accommodating IOLs (AIOLs) can provide better refractive and visual outcomes compared to standard monofocal designs, leading to greater levels of post-operative spectacle independence. The principal theme of this thesis relates to the development of new assessment techniques that can help to improve future premium IOL design. IOLs designed to correct astigmatism form the focus of the first part of the thesis. A novel toric IOL design was devised to decrease the effect of toric rotation on patient visual acuity, but found to have neither a beneficial or detrimental impact on visual acuity retention. IOL tilt, like rotation, may curtail visual performance; however current IOL tilt measurement techniques require the use of specialist equipment not readily available in most ophthalmological clinics. Thus a new idea that applied Pythagoras’s theory to digital images of IOL optic symmetricality in order to calculate tilt was proposed, and shown to be both accurate and highly repeatable. A literature review revealed little information on the relationship between IOL tilt, decentration and rotation and so this was examined. A poor correlation between these factors was found, indicating they occur independently of each other. Next, presbyopia correcting IOLs were investigated. The light distribution of different MIOLs and an AIOL was assessed using perimetry, to establish whether this could be used to inform optimal IOL design. Anticipated differences in threshold sensitivity between IOLs were not however found, thus perimetry was concluded to be ineffective in mapping retinal projection of blur. The observed difference between subjective and objective measures of accommodation, arising from the influence of pseudoaccommodative factors, was explored next to establish how much additional objective power would be required to restore the eye’s focus with AIOLs. Blur tolerance was found to be the key contributor to the ocular depth of focus, with an approximate dioptric influence of 0.60D. Our understanding of MIOLs may be limited by the need for subjective defocus curves, which are lengthy and do not permit important additional measures to be undertaken. The use of aberrometry to provide faster objective defocus curves was examined. Although subjective and objective measures related well, the peaks of the MIOL defocus curve profile were not evident with objective prediction of acuity, indicating a need for further refinement of visual quality metrics based on ocular aberrations. The experiments detailed in the thesis evaluate methods to improve visual performance with toric IOLs. They also investigate new techniques to allow more rapid post-operative assessment of premium IOLs, which could allow greater insights to be obtained into several aspects of visual quality, in order to optimise future IOL design and ultimately enhance patient satisfaction.

A környezeti teljesítményértékelés módszerei (Environmental performance evaluation methods)

A környezeti teljesítmény mérésére számtalan módszer létezik. A cikk a környezeti teljesítményértékelési eszközök útvesztőjében kínál némi eligazítást azáltal, hogy hat, a gyakorlatban is többé-kevésbé használt módszert mutat be és értékel. A szerző kísérletet tesz a bemutatott módszerek összehasonlítására is aszerint, hogy kitérnek-e a környezeti és a vállalati teljesítmény kapcsolatának vizsgálatára, illetve a környezeti teljesítményt kellően átfogóan vizsgálják-e. Nagyító alá kerül az a kérdés is, hogy vajon a teljesítményértékelési módszerek alapján jól teljesítő vállalatok valóban tekinthetők-e fenntarthatónak. ________ There are numerous methods existing for evaluating corporate environmental performance. The article offers some guidance in this labyrinth by introducing and evaluating six, in practice also used methods. The author makes an attempt to compare the different methods, whether they cover the relationship between environmental and company performance, and whether they analyse different components of environmental performance comprehensively enough. The question is also covered, whether companies with excellent performance based on the methods analysed can really be regarded as sustainable companies.

Comparison of different space indexing methods for ecological evaluation of urban openspaces

Nowadays we meet many different evaluation methods regarding the ecological performance of green surfaces and parks. All these methods are extremely valuable in determining how well a green surface performs from ecological aspect and to what extent the environment were damaged if these sites would be built or would be developed any other way causing reduction of green surfaces. The goal of the article is to clarify the differences between two evaluation methods (GSI – Green Space Intensity, BARC – Biological Activity Rate Calculation) suitable for urban green infrastructure analysis and to see if any significant difference can be observed evaluating the same site by these methods. Our research sites are in Budapest and their sizes vary between 2,5-8 acres. The most important aspects of site analysis are the following: size and boundaries of the park, existence or lack of water features, the characteristics of their surfaces and the complexity of vegetation. We summarize the data of the site analysis in tables, make a summarizing diagram for visual representation and draw conclusions from the results. As a final step, we evaluate how these two evaluation systems relate to urban open space developments.

The possible selves method in evaluating youth development interventions: The use of Integrated Qualitative /Quantitative Data Analytic Strategies (IQ -DAS)

This study investigated the feasibility of using qualitative methods to provide empirical documentation of the long-term qualitative change in the life course trajectories of “at risk” youth in a school based positive youth development program (the Changing Lives Program—CLP). This work draws from life course theory for a developmental framework and from recent advances in the use of qualitative methods in general and a grounded theory approach in particular. Grounded theory provided a methodological framework for conceptualizing the use of qualitative methods for assessing qualitative life change. The study investigated the feasibility of using the Possible Selves Questionnaire-Qualitative Extension (PSQ-QE) for evaluating the impact of the program on qualitative change in participants' life trajectory relative to a non-intervention control group. Integrated Qualitative/Quantitative Data Analytic Strategies (IQ-DAS) that we have been developing a part of our program of research provided the data analytic framework for the study. ^ Change was evaluated in 85 at risk high school students in CLP high school counseling groups over three assessment periods (pre, post, and follow-up), and a non-intervention control group of 23 students over two assessment periods (pre and post). Intervention gains and maintenance and the extent to which these patterns of change were moderated by gender and ethnicity were evaluated using a mixed design Repeated Measures Multivariate Analysis of Variance (RMANOVA) in which Time (pre, post) was the within (repeated) factor and Condition, Gender, and Ethnicity the between group factors. The trends for the direction of qualitative change were positive from pre to post and maintained at the year-end follow-up. More important, the 3-way interaction for Time x Gender x Ethnicity was significant, Roy's Θ =. 205, F(2, 37) = 3.80, p <.032, indicating that the overall pattern of positive change was significantly moderated by gender and ethnicity. Thus, the findings also provided preliminary evidence for a positive impact of the youth development program on long-term change in life course trajectory, and were suggestive with respect to the issue of amenability to treatment, i.e., the identification of subgroups of individuals in a target population who are likely to be the most amenable or responsive to a treatment. ^

Evaluating High-Resolution Aerial Photography Acquired by Unmanned Aerial Systems for Use in Mapping Everglades Wetland Plant Associations

Mapping of vegetation patterns over large extents using remote sensing methods requires field sample collections for two different purposes: (1) the establishment of plant association classification systems from samples of relative abundance estimates; and (2) training for supervised image classification and accuracy assessment of satellite data derived maps. One challenge for both procedures is the establishment of confidence in results and the analysis across multiple spatial scales. Continuous data sets that enable cross-scale studies are very time consuming and expensive to acquire and such extensive field sampling can be invasive. The use of high resolution aerial photography (hrAP) offers an alternative to extensive, invasive, field sampling and can provide large volume, spatially continuous, reference information that can meet the challenges of confidence building and multi-scale analysis.

Evaluating the spatial transferability and temporal repeatability of remote-sensing-based lake water quality retrieval algorithms at the European scale: a meta-analysis approach

Many studies have shown the considerable potential for the application of remote-sensing-based methods for deriving estimates of lake water quality. However, the reliable application of these methods across time and space is complicated by the diversity of lake types, sensor configuration, and the multitude of different algorithms proposed. This study tested one operational and 46 empirical algorithms sourced from the peer-reviewed literature that have individually shown potential for estimating lake water quality properties in the form of chlorophyll-a (algal biomass) and Secchi disc depth (SDD) (water transparency) in independent studies. Nearly half (19) of the algorithms were unsuitable for use with the remote-sensing data available for this study. The remaining 28 were assessed using the Terra/Aqua satellite archive to identify the best performing algorithms in terms of accuracy and transferability within the period 2001–2004 in four test lakes, namely Vänern, Vättern, Geneva, and Balaton. These lakes represent the broad continuum of large European lake types, varying in terms of eco-region (latitude/longitude and altitude), morphology, mixing regime, and trophic status. All algorithms were tested for each lake separately and combined to assess the degree of their applicability in ecologically different sites. None of the algorithms assessed in this study exhibited promise when all four lakes were combined into a single data set and most algorithms performed poorly even for specific lake types. A chlorophyll-a retrieval algorithm originally developed for eutrophic lakes showed the most promising results (R2 = 0.59) in oligotrophic lakes. Two SDD retrieval algorithms, one originally developed for turbid lakes and the other for lakes with various characteristics, exhibited promising results in relatively less turbid lakes (R2 = 0.62 and 0.76, respectively). The results presented here highlight the complexity associated with remotely sensed lake water quality estimates and the high degree of uncertainty due to various limitations, including the lake water optical properties and the choice of methods.

How Much Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts? Evaluating Interactions Between Complex Policies

This presentation focuses on methods for the evaluation of complex policies. In particular, it focuses on evaluating interactions between policies and the extent to which two or more interacting policies mutually reinforce or hinder one another, in the area of environmental sustainability. Environmental sustainability is increasingly gaining recognition as a complex policy area, requiring a more systemic perspective and approach (e.g. European Commission, 2011). Current trends in human levels of resource consumption are unsustainable, and single solutions which target isolated issues independently of the broader context have so far fallen short. Instead there is a growing call among both academics and policy practitioners for systemic change which acknowledges and engages with the complex interactions, barriers and opportunities across the different actors, sectors, and drivers of production and consumption. Policy mixes, and the combination and ordering of policies within, therefore become an important focus for those aspiring to design and manage transitions to sustainability. To this end, we need a better understanding of the interactions, synergies and conflicts between policies (Cunningham et al., 2013; Geels, 2014). As a contribution to this emerging field of research and to inform its next steps, I present a review on what methods are available to try to quantify the impacts of complex policy interactions, since there is no established method among practitioners, and I explore the merits or value of such attempts. The presentation builds on key works in the field of complexity science (e.g. Anderson, 1972), revisiting and combining these with more recent contributions in the emerging field of policy and complex systems, and evaluation (e.g. Johnstone et al., 2010). With a coalition of UK Government departments, agencies and Research Councils soon to announce the launch of a new internationally-leading centre to pioneer, test and promote innovative and inclusive methods for policy evaluation across the energy-environment-food nexus, the contribution is particularly timely.