Estimating arterial blood gases with the EABC® System (“Earlobe Arterialized Blood Collector”) in critically ill patients. A validation study.

The Earlobe Arterialized Blood Collector® is a minimally invasive system able to perform arterialized capillary blood gas analysis from the earlobe (EL). A prospective validation study was performed in 55 critical ill patients. Sampling failure rate was high (53.6%). Risk factors were age > 65 years, diabetes, vasoactive drug therapy and noradrenaline (NA) doses above 0.22 μg / kg / min. Multivariate analysis showed age > 65 years was the only factor independently associated with failure. Concordance analysis with arterial blood gases and Bland-Altman agreement evaluation were insufficient for validating the new system for all gasometrical variables.

Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of geophysical data for the purpose of estimating the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) has the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties of the vadose zone because of their strong sensitivity to soil water content. In particular, recent evidence has suggested that the stochastic inversion of crosshole GPR data within a coupled geophysical-hydrological framework may allow for effective estimation of subsurface van-Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. An important and still unresolved issue, however, is how to best integrate GPR data into a stochastic inversion in order to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first introduce a fully Bayesian inversion called Markov-chain-Monte-carlo (MCMC) strategy to perform the stochastic inversion of steady-state GPR data to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties. Within this study, the choice of the prior parameter probability distributions from which potential model configurations are drawn and tested against observed data was also investigated. Analysis of both synthetic and field data collected at the Eggborough (UK) site indicates that the geophysical data alone contain valuable information regarding the VGM parameters. However, significantly better results are obtained when these data are combined with a realistic, informative prior. A subsequent study explore in detail the dynamic infiltration case, specifically to what extent time-lapse ZOP GPR data, collected during a forced infiltration experiment at the Arrenaes field site (Denmark), can help to quantify VGM parameters and their uncertainties using the MCMC inversion strategy. The findings indicate that the stochastic inversion of time-lapse GPR data does indeed allow for a substantial refinement in the inferred posterior VGM parameter distributions. In turn, this significantly improves knowledge of the hydraulic properties, which are required to predict hydraulic behaviour. Finally, another aspect that needed to be addressed involved the comparison of time-lapse GPR data collected under different infiltration conditions (i.e., natural loading and forced infiltration conditions) to estimate the VGM parameters using the MCMC inversion strategy. The results show that for the synthetic example, considering data collected during a forced infiltration test helps to better refine soil hydraulic properties compared to data collected under natural infiltration conditions. When investigating data collected at the Arrenaes field site, further complications arised due to model error and showed the importance of also including a rigorous analysis of the propagation of model error with time and depth when considering time-lapse data. Although the efforts in this thesis were focused on GPR data, the corresponding findings are likely to have general applicability to other types of geophysical data and field environments. Moreover, the obtained results allow to have confidence for future developments in integration of geophysical data with stochastic inversions to improve the characterization of the unsaturated zone but also reveal important issues linked with stochastic inversions, namely model errors, that should definitely be addressed in future research.

Identification concept and the use of probabilities in forensic odontology--an approach by philosophical discussion.

This paper questions the practitioners' deterministic approach(es) in forensic identification and notes the limits of their conclusions in order to encourage a discussion to question current practices. With this end in view, a hypothetical discussion between an expert in dentistry and an enthusiastic member of a jury, eager to understand the scientific principles of evidence interpretation, is presented. This discussion will lead us to regard any argument aiming at identification as probabilistic.

Conditional and syllogistic deductive tasks dissociate functionally during premise integration.

Deduction allows us to draw consequences from previous knowledge. Deductive reasoning can be applied to several types of problem, for example, conditional, syllogistic, and relational. It has been assumed that the same cognitive operations underlie solutions to them all; however, this hypothesis remains to be tested empirically. We used event-related fMRI, in the same group of subjects, to compare reasoning-related activity associated with conditional and syllogistic deductive problems. Furthermore, we assessed reasoning-related activity for the two main stages of deduction, namely encoding of premises and their integration. Encoding syllogistic premises for reasoning was associated with activation of BA 44/45 more than encoding them for literal recall. During integration, left fronto-lateral cortex (BA 44/45, 6) and basal ganglia activated with both conditional and syllogistic reasoning. Besides that, integration of syllogistic problems additionally was associated with activation of left parietal (BA 7) and left ventro-lateral frontal cortex (BA 47). This difference suggests a dissociation between conditional and syllogistic reasoning at the integration stage. Our finding indicates that the integration of conditional and syllogistic reasoning is carried out by means of different, but partly overlapping, sets of anatomical regions and by inference, cognitive processes. The involvement of BA 44/45 during both encoding (syllogisms) and premise integration (syllogisms and conditionals) suggests a central role in deductive reasoning for syntactic manipulations and formal/linguistic representations.

A comparison of random sequence reads versus 16S rDNA sequences for estimating the biodiversity of a metagenomic library

The construction of metagenomic libraries has permitted the study of microorganisms resistant to isolation and the analysis of 16S rDNA sequences has been used for over two decades to examine bacterial biodiversity. Here, we show that the analysis of random sequence reads (RSRs) instead of 16S is a suitable shortcut to estimate the biodiversity of a bacterial community from metagenomic libraries. We generated 10,010 RSRs from a metagenomic library of microorganisms found in human faecal samples. Then searched them using the program BLASTN against a prokaryotic sequence database to assign a taxon to each RSR. The results were compared with those obtained by screening and analysing the clones containing 16S rDNA sequences in the whole library. We found that the biodiversity observed by RSR analysis is consistent with that obtained by 16S rDNA. We also show that RSRs are suitable to compare the biodiversity between different metagenomic libraries. RSRs can thus provide a good estimate of the biodiversity of a metagenomic library and, as an alternative to 16S, this approach is both faster and cheaper.

Estimating the basic reproductive number from viral sequence data.

Epidemiological processes leave a fingerprint in the pattern of genetic structure of virus populations. Here, we provide a new method to infer epidemiological parameters directly from viral sequence data. The method is based on phylogenetic analysis using a birth-death model (BDM) rather than the commonly used coalescent as the model for the epidemiological transmission of the pathogen. Using the BDM has the advantage that transmission and death rates are estimated independently and therefore enables for the first time the estimation of the basic reproductive number of the pathogen using only sequence data, without further assumptions like the average duration of infection. We apply the method to genetic data of the HIV-1 epidemic in Switzerland.

The Ins and Outs of Unemployment: A Conditional Analysis

We analyze how unemployment, job finding and job separation rates react to neutral and investment-specific technology shocks. Neutral shocks increase unemployment and explain a substantial portion of unemployment volatility; investment-specific shocks expand employment and hours worked and mostly contribute to hours worked volatility. Movements in the job separation rates are responsible for the impact response of unemployment while job finding rates for movements along its adjustment path. Our evidence qualifies the conclusions by Hall (2005) and Shimer (2007) and warns against using search models with exogenous separation rates to analyze the effects of technology shocks.

U.S. Universities’ Net Returns from Patenting and Licensing: A Quantile Regression Analysis, September 2006

In line with the rights and incentives provided by the Bayh-Dole Act of 1980, U.S. universities have increased their involvement in patenting and licensing activities through their own technology transfer offices. Only a few U.S. universities are obtaining large returns, however, whereas others are continuing with these activities despite negligible or negative returns. We assess the U.S. universities’ potential to generate returns from licensing activities by modeling and estimating quantiles of the distribution of net licensing returns conditional on some of their structural characteristics. We find limited prospects for public universities without a medical school everywhere in their distribution. Other groups of universities (private, and public with a medical school) can expect significant but still fairly modest returns only beyond the 0.9th quantile. These findings call into question the appropriateness of the revenue-generating motive for the aggressive rate of patenting and licensing by U.S. universities.

Intravitreal chemotherapy for vitreous disease in retinoblastoma revisited: from prohibition to conditional indications.

BACKGROUND: Tumour control of vitreous seeds remains challenging owing to their resistance to radiation and systemic chemotherapy. OBJECTIVE: To describe the short-term efficacy of intravitreal melphalan for vitreous disease in retinoblastoma using a new injection technique and dose. METHODS: This study is a retrospective non-comparative review of 23 consecutive heavily pretreated patients (23 eyes) with active vitreous seeding and eligible for intravitreous chemotherapy (IViC). They received a total of 122 intravitreal injections of melphalan (20-30 μg) given every 7-10 days. The ocular status was objectively monitored under anaesthesia with fundus photography. RESULTS: All patients are alive without evidence of extraocular spread (95% CI 82.19% to 100%). Concomitant treatments, including other chemotherapeutic modalities, were used until complete sterilisation of the retinal seeding source and subretinal seeds. Globe retention was achieved in 87% (20/23) of cases. All retained eyes were in complete remission after a median follow-up period of 22 months (range 9-31 months). The Kaplan-Meier estimate of ocular survival rates at 2 years was 84.14% (95% CI 62.48% to 95.28%). A localised peripheral salt-and-pepper retinopathy was noted in 10 eyes (43%) at the site of injection. CONCLUSIONS: This study reports the first clinically documented case series of patients with retinoblastoma treated with IViC. Despite a possible confounding effect of concomitant chemotherapy prescription using other routes of administration in four of the successfully treated eyes (20%), IViC achieved an unprecedented success rate of tumour control in the presence of vitreous seeding. Of note, none of the treated eyes required external beam irradiation to control the vitreous seeding. Further studies are required to assess IViC retinal toxicity and to better delineate its role in the management of retinoblastoma.

Conditional Involvement of CONSTITUTIVE PHOTOMORPHOGENIC1 in the Degradation of Phytochrome A.

All higher plants possess multiple phytochrome photoreceptors, with phytochrome A (phyA) being light labile and other members of the family being relatively light stable (phyB-phyE in Arabidopsis [Arabidopsis thaliana]). phyA also differs from other members of the family because it enables plants to deetiolate in far-red light-rich environments typical of dense vegetational cover. Later in development, phyA counteracts the shade avoidance syndrome. Light-induced degradation of phyA favors the establishment of a robust shade avoidance syndrome and was proposed to be important for phyA-mediated deetiolation in far-red light. phyA is ubiquitylated and targeted for proteasome-mediated degradation in response to light. Cullin1 and the ubiquitin E3 ligase CONSTITUTIVE PHOTOMORPHOGENIC1 (COP1) have been implicated in this process. Here, we systematically analyze the requirement of cullins in this process and show that only CULLIN1 plays an important role in light-induced phyA degradation. In addition, the role of COP1 in this process is conditional and depends on the presence of metabolizable sugar in the growth medium. COP1 acts with SUPPRESSOR OF PHYTOCHROME A (SPA) proteins. Unexpectedly, the light-induced decline of phyA levels is reduced in spa mutants irrespective of the growth medium, suggesting a COP1-independent role for SPA proteins.

A subsampling approach to estimating the distribution of diversing statistics with application to assessing financial market risks

In this paper we propose a subsampling estimator for the distribution ofstatistics diverging at either known rates when the underlying timeseries in strictly stationary abd strong mixing. Based on our results weprovide a detailed discussion how to estimate extreme order statisticswith dependent data and present two applications to assessing financialmarket risk. Our method performs well in estimating Value at Risk andprovides a superior alternative to Hill's estimator in operationalizingSafety First portofolio selection.

Transition probabilities and duration analysis among disability states: Some evidence from Spanish data

In this paper we study the disability transition probabilities (as well as the mortalityprobabilities) due to concurrent factors to age such as income, gender and education. Althoughit is well known that ageing and socioeconomic status influence the probability ofcausing functional disorders, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the combined effectof those factors along the individuals' life and how this affects the transition from one degreeof disability to another. The assumption that tomorrow's disability state is only a functionof the today's state is very strong, since disability is a complex variable that depends onseveral other elements than time. This paper contributes into the field in two ways: (1) byattending the distinction between the initial disability level and the process that leads tohis course (2) by addressing whether and how education, age and income differentially affectthe disability transitions. Using a Markov chain discrete model and a survival analysis, weestimate the probability by year and individual characteristics that changes the state of disabilityand the duration that it takes its progression in each case. We find that people withan initial state of disability have a higher propensity to change and take less time to transitfrom different stages. Men do that more frequently than women. Education and incomehave negative effects on transition. Moreover, we consider the disability benefits associatedto those changes along different stages of disability and therefore we offer some clues onthe potential savings of preventive actions that may delay or avoid those transitions. Onpure cost considerations, preventive programs for improvement show higher benefits thanthose for preventing deterioration, and in general terms, those focussing individuals below65 should go first. Finally the trend of disability in Spain seems not to change among yearsand regional differences are not found.

Estimating the effect of transitory economic shocks on civil conflict

This note tries to clarify some remaining issues in the debate on the effect of income shocks oncivil conflict. Section 1 discusses the discrepant findings on the effect of rainfall shocks oncivil conflict in Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011) and Ciccone (2011). Section 2 develops aninstrumental variables approach to estimate the effect of transitory (rainfall-driven) incomeshocks on civil conflict and contrasts the conclusions with those of Miguel, Satyanath, andSergenti (2004) and Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011). Throughout, the note uses the data ofMiguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti to focus on the methodological issues at the core of the debate(for results using the latest data see Ciccone, 2011).