Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

A constructive technology assessment of stationary energy storage systems: prospective life cycle orientated analysis

Based on the presentation and discussion at the 3rd Winter School on Technology Assessment, December 2012, Universidade Nova de Lisboa (Portugal), Caparica Campus, PhD programme on Technology Assessment

Assessing self-organization and emergence in Evolvable Assembly Systems (EAS)

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

The impact of the economic crisis on the quality of health services

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The role of qualitative data and systems thinking in addressing service decline in market towns

Retail services are a main contributor to municipal budget and are an activity that affects perceived quality-of-life, especially for those with mobility difficulties (e.g. the elderly, low income citizens). However, there is evidence of a decline in some of the services market towns provide to their citizens. In market towns, this decline has been reported all over the western world, from North America to Australia. The aim of this research was to understand retail decline and enlighten on some ways of addressing this decline, using a case study, Thornbury, a small town in the Southwest of England. Data collected came from two participatory approaches: photo-surveys and multicriteria mapping. The interpretation of data came from using participants as analysts, but also, using systems thinking (systems diagramming and social trap theory) for theory building. This research moves away from mainstream economic and town planning perspectives by making use of different methods and concepts used in anthropology and visual sociology (photo-surveys), decision-making and ecological economics (multicriteria mapping and social trap theory). In sum, this research has experimented with different methods, out of their context, to analyse retail decline in a small town. This research developed a conceptual model for retail decline and identified the existence of conflicting goals and interests and their implications for retail decline, as well as causes for these. Most of the potential causes have had little attention in the literature. This research also identified that some of the measures commonly used for dealing with retail decline may be contributing to the causes of retail decline itself. Additionally, this research reviewed some of the measures that can be used to deal with retail decline, implications for policy-making and reflected on the use of the data collection and analysis methods in the context of small to medium towns.

Prospective system analysis of stationary battery systems under the frame of Constructive Technology Assessment

Based on the report for the unit “Project IV” of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment under the supervision of Dr.-Ing. Marcel Weil and Prof. Dr. António Brandão Moniz. The report was presented and discussed at the Doctorate Conference on Technologogy Assessment in July 2013 at the University Nova Lisboa, Caparica campus.

Comparateive analysis: Public and private school management systems

The Portuguese educational system has counted, for many years, with the co-existence of both public and private schools. In fact, the country’s growth and development led, in the past, to an increasing demand for free of charge public education that could only be matched through the creation of “publicly-subsidized and privately owned and managed schools”. Still, the demographic evolution of Portugal recently generated a decrease on the demand for public educational services. This situation has raised doubts about the true contribution of this type of school for the public education system. This paper aims at answering this question by isolating the impact of different property and management schemes on the performance of students, resorting to cross-section data on 9th grade students from 2010. The results corroborate the well known result on the relevance of the family socio-economic background for students’ performance, but do also sustain the existence of a significant positive impact of private ownership and management schemes on the overall performance of students. These results suggest that there might be gains associated with the expansion of such schemes within the public education system.

New delivery systems for amphotericin B applied to the improvement of leishmaniasis treatment

Leishmaniasis is one of the six major tropical diseases targeted by the World Health Organization. It is a life-threatening disease of medical, social and economic importance in endemic areas. No vaccine is yet available for human use, and chemotherapy presents several problems. Pentavalent antimonials have been the drugs of choice to treat the disease for more than six decades; however, they exhibit high toxicity and are not indicated for children, for pregnant or breastfeeding women or for chronically ill patients. Amphotericin B (AmpB) is a second-line drug, and although it has been increasingly used to treat visceral leishmaniasis (VL), its clinical use has been hampered due to its high toxicity. This review focuses on the development and in vivo usage of new delivery systems for AmpB that aim to decrease its toxicity without altering its therapeutic efficacy. These new formulations, when adjusted with regard to their production costs, may be considered new drug delivery systems that promise to improve the treatment of leishmaniasis, by reducing the side effects and the number of doses while permitting a satisfactory cost-benefit ratio.

A comparison of environmental licensing systems in operation in the wood panel manufacturing industry in the Northern Hemisphere

The objective of this thesis is to compare and contrast environmental licensing systems, for the wood panel industry, in a number of countries in order to determine which system is the best from an environmental and economic point of view. The thesis also examines the impact which government can have on industry and the type of licensing system in operation in a country. Initially, the thesis investigates the origins of the various environmental licensing systems which are in operation in Ireland, Scotland, Wales, France, USA and Canada. It then examines the Environmental Agencies which control and supervise industry in these countries. The impact which the type of government (i.e. unitary or federal) in charge in any particular country has on industry and the Regulatory Agency in that country is then described. Most of the mills in the thesis make a product called OSB (Oriented Strand Board) and the manufacturing process is briefly described in order to understand where the various emissions are generated. The main body of the thesis examines a number of environmental parameters which have emission limit values in the licenses examined, although not all of these parameters have emission limit values in all of the licenses. All of these parameters are used as indicators of the potential impact which the mill can have on the environment. They have been set at specific levels by the Environmental Agencies in the individual countries to control the impact of the mill. Following on from this, the two main types of air pollution control equipment (WESPs and RTOs) are described in regard to their function and capabilities. The mill licenses are then presented in the form of results tables which compare air results and water results separately. This is due to the fact that the most significant emission from this type of industry is to air. A matrix system is used to compare the licenses so that the comparison can be as objective as possible. The discussion examines all of the elements previously described and from this it was concluded that the IPC licensing system is the best from an environmental and economic point of view. It is a much more expensive system to operate than the other systems examined, but it is much more comprehensive and looks at the mill as a whole rather than fragmenting it. It was also seen that the type of environmental licensing system which is in place in a country can play a role in the locating of an industry as certain systems were seen to have more stringent standards attached to them. The type of standard in place in a country is in turn influenced by the type of government which is in place in that country.

Energy from waste (EfW): a feasibility study on the economic and the environmental co-benefits of biogas production within rural communities

Energy from waste (E/W) technologies in the form o f biogas plants, CHP plants and other municipal solid waste (MSW) conversion technologies, have been gaining steady ground in the provision o f energy throughout Europe and the UK. Urban Waste Water Treatment Plants (UWWTP) are utilising much o f the same biochemical processes common to these E/W plants. Previous studies on Centralised Anaerobic Digestion (CAD) within Ireland found that the legislative and economic conditions were not conducive to such an operation on the grounds o f low energy price for electric and heat energy, and due to the restrictive nature o f the allowable feedstocks. Recent changes to the Irish REFIT tariff on energy produced from Anaerobic digestion; alterations to the regulation o f the allowable use o f animal by products(ABP); the recent enactment o f the Renewable Energy D irective (09/28/EC) and a subsequent review o f the draft Biowaste Directive (2001) required that the issue o f decentralised energy production in Ireland be reassessed. In this instance the feasibility study is based on a extant rural community, centred around the village o f Woodford Co Galway. The review found that the prevailing conditions were now such that it was technically and economically feasible for this biochemical process to provide energy and waste treatment facilities at the above location. The review also outlines the last item which is preventing this process from becoming achievable, specifically the lack o f a digestate regulation on land spreading which deals specifically with biowaste. The study finds that the implementation o f the draft EU biowaste regulations, with amendments for Cr and Hg levels to match the proposed Irish regulation for compost, would ensure that Ireland has some o f the most restrictive regulations in Europe for this application. The delay in completing this piece o f legislation is preventing national energy and waste issues from being resolved in a planned and stepwise fashion. A proposed lay out for the new Integrated Waste from Energy Plant (IW/EP) is presented. Budget economic projections and alternative revenue streams are outlined. Finally a review o f the national policies regarding the Rural Development Plan (RDP), the Rural Planning Guidelines (RPG) and the National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) are examined against the relevant EU directives.

Do creative industries cluster? mapping creative local production systems in Italy

An important debate on the role of creativity and culture as factors of local economic development is distinctly emerging. Despite the emphasis put on the theoretical definition of these concepts, it is necessary to strengthen comparative research for the identification and analysis of the kind of creativity embedded in the territory as well as its determinants. Creative local production systems are identified in Italy and Spain departing from local labour markets as territorial units, and focusing on two different kinds of creative

Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated. As in any survey conducted on a sample the question of the measurement of the sample error of the results has to be addressed, since the error influences both the reliability of the results and the calculation of the sample size adequate for a desired confidence interval. The results presented here are based on data from the Survey of the Business Climate (Encuesta de Clima Empresarial) developed through the collaboration of the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya) with the Chambers of Commerce (Cámaras de Comercio) of Sabadell and Terrassa.

Consumption Expenditures in Economic Impact Studies: An Application to University Students

This paper examines how appropriately to attribute economic impact to consumption expenditures. Consumption expenditures are often treated as either wholly endogenous or wholly exogenous, following a distinction from Input-Output analysis. For many applications, such as those focusing on the impacts of tourism or benefits systems, such binomial assumptions are not satisfactory. We argue that consumption is neither wholly endogenous nor wholly exogenous but that the degree of this distinction is rather an empirical matter. We set out a general model for the treatment of consumption expenditures and illustrate its application through the case of university students. We examine individual student groups and how the impacts of students at particular institutions. Furthermore we take into account the binding budget constraint of public expenditures (as is the case for devolved regions in the UK)and examine how this affects the impact attributed to students' consumption expenditures.

Cost evaluation of cardiovascular magnetic resonance versus coronary angiography for the diagnostic work-up of coronary artery disease: Application of the European Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance registry data to the German, United Kingdom, Swiss, and United States health care systems.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) has favorable characteristics for diagnostic evaluation and risk stratification of patients with known or suspected CAD. CMR utilization in CAD detection is growing fast. However, data on its cost-effectiveness are scarce. The goal of this study is to compare the costs of two strategies for detection of significant coronary artery stenoses in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD): 1) Performing CMR first to assess myocardial ischemia and/or infarct scar before referring positive patients (defined as presence of ischemia and/or infarct scar to coronary angiography (CXA) versus 2) a hypothetical CXA performed in all patients as a single test to detect CAD. METHODS: A subgroup of the European CMR pilot registry was used including 2,717 consecutive patients who underwent stress-CMR. From these patients, 21% were positive for CAD (ischemia and/or infarct scar), 73% negative, and 6% uncertain and underwent additional testing. The diagnostic costs were evaluated using invoicing costs of each test performed. Costs analysis was performed from a health care payer perspective in German, United Kingdom, Swiss, and United States health care settings. RESULTS: In the public sectors of the German, United Kingdom, and Swiss health care systems, cost savings from the CMR-driven strategy were 50%, 25% and 23%, respectively, versus outpatient CXA. If CXA was carried out as an inpatient procedure, cost savings were 46%, 50% and 48%, respectively. In the United States context, cost savings were 51% when compared with inpatient CXA, but higher for CMR by 8% versus outpatient CXA. CONCLUSION: This analysis suggests that from an economic perspective, the use of CMR should be encouraged as a management option for patients with suspected CAD.

Monopolistic competition and different wage setting systems

In this paper we match the static disequilibrium unemployment model without frictions in the labor market and monopolistic competition with an infinite horizon model of growth. We compare the wages set at the firm, sector and national (centralized) levels, their unemployment rates and growth of the economic variables, for the Cobb-Douglas production function, in order to see under wich conditions the inverse U hypothesis between unemployment and centralization of wage bargain is confirmed. We also analyze, in the three wage setting systems, the effect of an increase in the monopoly power on employment and growth.