Complexity of chronic asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: implications for risk assessment, and disease progression and control

Although assessment of asthma control is important to guide treatment, it is difficult since the temporal pattern and risk of exacerbations are often unpredictable. In this Review, we summarise the classic methods to assess control with unidimensional and multidimensional approaches. Next, we show how ideas from the science of complexity can explain the seemingly unpredictable nature of bronchial asthma and emphysema, with implications for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We show that fluctuation analysis, a method used in statistical physics, can be used to gain insight into asthma as a dynamic disease of the respiratory system, viewed as a set of interacting subsystems (eg, inflammatory, immunological, and mechanical). The basis of the fluctuation analysis methods is the quantification of the long-term temporal history of lung function parameters. We summarise how this analysis can be used to assess the risk of future asthma episodes, with implications for asthma severity and control both in children and adults.

Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

Risk assessment for invasive exotic plants using multi-criteria risk models

Invasive exotic plants have altered natural ecosystems across much of North America. In the Midwest, the presence of invasive plants is increasing rapidly, causing changes in ecosystem patterns and processes. Early detection has become a key component in invasive plant management and in the detection of ecosystem change. Risk assessment through predictive modeling has been a useful resource for monitoring and assisting with treatment decisions for invasive plants. Predictive models were developed to assist with early detection of ten target invasive plants in the Great Lakes Network of the National Park Service and for garlic mustard throughout the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. These multi-criteria risk models utilize geographic information system (GIS) data to predict the areas at highest risk for three phases of invasion: introduction, establishment, and spread. An accuracy assessment of the models for the ten target plants in the Great Lakes Network showed an average overall accuracy of 86.3%. The model developed for garlic mustard in the Upper Peninsula resulted in an accuracy of 99.0%. Used as one of many resources, the risk maps created from the model outputs will assist with the detection of ecosystem change, the monitoring of plant invasions, and the management of invasive plants through prioritized control efforts.

Whole-body vibration exposure study in U.S. railroad locomotives--an ergonomic risk assessment

Whole-body vibration exposure of locomotive engineers and the vibration attenuation of seats in 22 U.S. locomotives (built between 1959 and 2000) was studied during normal revenue service and following international measurement guidelines. Triaxial vibration measurements (duration mean 155 min, range 84-383 min) on the seat and on the floor were compared. In addition to the basic vibration evaluation (aw rms), the vector sum (av), the maximum transient vibration value (MTVV/aw), the vibration dose value (VDV/(aw T1/4)), and the vibration seat effective transmissibility factor (SEAT) were calculated. The power spectral densities are also reported. The mean basic vibration level (aw rms) was for the fore-aft axis x = 0.18 m/sec2, the lateral axis y = 0.28 m/sec2, and the vertical axis z = 0.32 m/sec2. The mean vector sum was 0.59 m/sec2 (range 0.27 to 1.44). The crest factors were generally at or above 9 in the horizontal and vertical axis. The mean MTVV/aw was 5.3 (x), 5.1 (y), and 4.8 (z), and the VDV/(aw T1/4) values ranged from 1.32 to 2.3 (x-axis), 1.33 to 1.7 (y-axis), and 1.38 to 1.86 (z-axis), generally indicating high levels of shocks. The mean seat transmissibility factor (SEAT) was 1.4 (x) and 1.2 (y) and 1 (z), demonstrating a general ineffectiveness of any of the seat suspension systems. In conclusion, these data indicate that locomotive rides are characterized by relatively high shock content (acceleration peaks) of the vibration signal in all directions. Locomotive vertical and lateral vibrations are similar, which appears to be characteristic for rail vehicles compared with many road/off-road vehicles. Tested locomotive cab seats currently in use (new or old) appear inadequate to reduce potentially harmful vibration and shocks transmitted to the seated operator, and older seats particularly lack basic ergonomic features regarding adjustability and postural support.

Risk Assessment of the Introduction of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus via Boar Semen into Switzerland as an Example of a PRRSV-Free Country

Switzerland is currently porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) free, but semen imports from PRRSV-infected European countries are increasing. As the virus can be transmitted via semen, for example, when a free boar stud becomes infected, and the risk of its import in terms of PRRSV introduction is unknown, the annual probability to accidentally import the virus into Switzerland was estimated in a risk assessment. A quantitative stochastic model was set up with data comprised by import figures of 2010, interviews with boar stud owners and expert opinion. It resulted in an annual median number of 0.18 imported ejaculates (= imported semen doses from one collection from one donor) from PRRSV-infected boars. Hence, one infected ejaculate would be imported every 6 years and infect a mean of 10 sows. These results suggest that under current circumstances, there is a substantial risk of PRRSV introduction into Switzerland via imported boar semen and that measures to enhance safety of imports should be taken. The time from infection of a previously negative boar stud to its detection had the highest impact on the number of imported 'positive' ejaculates. Therefore, emphasis should be placed on PRRSV monitoring protocols in boar studs. Results indicated that a substantial increase in safety could only be achieved with much tighter sampling protocols than currently performed. Generally, the model could easily be customized for other applications like other countries or regions or even sow farms that want to estimate their risk when purchasing semen from a particular boar stud.

Identifying Distinct Quitting Trajectories after an Unassisted Smoking Cessation Attempt: An Ecological Momentary Assessment Study

Objectives: This study aimed at identifying distinct quitting trajectories over 29 days after an unassisted smoking ces- sation attempt by ecological momentary assessment (EMA). In order to validate these trajectories we tested if they predict smoking frequency up to six months later. Methods: EMA via mobile phones was used to collect real time data on smoking (yes/no) after an unassisted quit attempt over 29 days. Smoking frequency one, three and six months after the quit attempt was assessed with online questionnaires. Latent class growth modeling was used to analyze the data of 230 self-quitters. Results: Four different quitting trajectories emerged: quitter (43.9%), late quitter (11.3%), returner (17%) and persistent smoker (27.8%). The quitting trajectories predicted smoking frequency one, three and six months after the quit attempt (all p < 0.001). Conclusions: Outcome after a smoking cessation attempt is better described by four distinct trajectories instead of a binary variable for abstinence or relapse. In line with the relapse model by Marlatt and Gordon, late quitter may have learned how to cope with lapses during one month after the quitting attempt. This group would have been allocated to the relapse group in traditional outcome studies.

Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PAHs and oxygenated PAHs) and trace metals in fish species from Ghana (West Africa): Bioaccumulation and health risk assessment

We report the concentrations of 28 PAHs, 15 oxygenated PAHs (OPAHs) and 11 trace metals/metalloids (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Se, and Zn) in muscle and gut + gill tissues of demersal fishes (Drapane africana, Cynoglossus senegalensis and Pomadasys peroteti) from three locations along the coast of the Gulf of Guinea (Ghana). The concentrations of ∑ 28PAHs in muscle tissues averaged 192 ng g− 1 dw (range: 71–481 ng g− 1 dw) and were not statistically different between locations. The concentrations of ∑ 28 PAHs were higher in guts + gills than in muscles. The PAH composition pattern was dominated by low molecular weight compounds (naphthalene, alkyl-naphthalenes and phenanthrene). All fish tissues had benzo[a]pyrene concentrations lower than the EU limit for food safety. Excess cancer risk from consumption of some fish was higher than the guideline value of 1 × 10− 6. The concentrations of ∑ 15 OPAHs in fish muscles averaged 422 ng g− 1 dw (range: 28–1715 ng g− 1dw). The ∑ 15 OPAHs/∑ 16 US-EPA PAHs concentration ratio was > 1 in 68% of the fish muscles and 100% of guts + gills. The log-transformed concentrations of PAHs and OPAHs in muscles, guts + gills were significantly (p < 0.05) correlated with their octanol–water partitioning coefficients, strongly suggesting that equilibrium partitioning from water/sediment into fish tissue was the main mechanism of bioaccumulation. The trace metal concentrations in the fish tissues were in the medium range when compared to fish from other parts of the world. The concentrations of some trace metals (Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn) were higher in guts + gills than in muscle tissues. The target hazard quotients for metals were < 1 and did not indicate a danger to the local population. We conclude that the health risk arising from the consumption of the studied fish (due to their PAHs and trace metals content) is minimal.

PM2.5-bound oxygenated PAHs, nitro-PAHs and parent-PAHs from the atmosphere of a Chinese megacity: seasonal variation, sources and cancer risk assessment

Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) in air particulate matter contribute considerably to the health risk of air pollution. The objectives of this study were to assess the occurrence and variation in concentrations and sources of PM2.5-bound PACs [Oxygenated PAHs (OPAHs), nitro-PAHs and parent-PAHs] sampled from the atmosphere of a typical Chinese megacity (Xi'an), to study the influence of meteorological conditions on PACs and to estimate the lifetime excess cancer risk to the residents of Xi'an (from inhalation of PM2.5-bound PACs). To achieve these objectives, we sampled 24-h PM2.5 aerosols (once in every 6 days, from 5 July 2008 to 8 August 2009) from the atmosphere of Xi'an and measured the concentrations of PACs in them. The PM2.5-bound concentrations of Σcarbonyl-OPAHs, ∑ hydroxyl + carboxyl-OPAHs, Σnitro-PAHs and Σalkyl + parent-PAHs ranged between 5–22, 0.2–13, 0.3–7, and 7–387 ng m− 3, respectively, being markedly higher than in most western cities. This represented a range of 0.01–0.4% and 0.002–0.06% of the mass of organic C in PM2.5 and the total mass of PM2.5, respectively. The sums of the concentrations of each compound group had winter-to-summer ratios ranging from 3 to 8 and most individual OPAHs and nitro-PAHs had higher concentrations in winter than in summer, suggesting a dominant influence of emissions from household heating and winter meteorological conditions. Ambient temperature, air pressure, and wind speed explained a large part of the temporal variation in PACs concentrations. The lifetime excess cancer risk from inhalation (attributable to selected PAHs and nitro-PAHs) was six fold higher in winter (averaging 1450 persons per million residents of Xi'an) than in summer. Our results call for the development of emission control measures.

Risk assessment for the design of a risk-based surveillance programme for fish farms in Switzerland (in accordance with Council Directive 2006/88/EC of the European Union).

Swiss aquaculture farms were assessed according to their risk of acquiring or spreading viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS) and infectious haematopoietic necrosis (IHN). Risk factors for the introduction and spread of VHS and IHN were defined and assessed using published data and expert opinions. Among the 357 aquaculture farms identified in Switzerland, 49.3% were categorised as high risk, 49.0% as medium risk and 1.7% as low risk. According to the new Directive 2006/88/EC for aquaculture of the European Union, the frequency of farm inspections must be derived from their risk levels. A sensitivity analysis showed that water supply and fish movements were highly influential on the output of the risk assessment regarding the introduction of VHS and IHN. Fish movements were also highly influential on the risk assessment output regarding the spread of these diseases.

Risk assessment and causal preventive measures.

A prerequisite for preventive measures is to diagnose erosive tooth wear and to evaluate the different etiological factors in order to identify persons at risk. No diagnostic device is available for the assessment of erosive defects. Thus, they can only be detected clinically. Consequently, erosion not diagnosed at an early stage may render timely preventive measures difficult. In order to assess the risk factors, patients should record their dietary intake for a distinct period of time. Then a dentist can determine the erosive potential of the diet. A table with common beverages and foodstuffs is presented for judging the erosive potential. Particularly, patients with more than 4 dietary acid intakes have a higher risk for erosion when other risk factors are present. Regurgitation of gastric acids is a further important risk factor for the development of erosion which has to be taken into account. Based on these analyses, an individually tailored preventive program may be suggested to the patients. It may comprise dietary advice, use of calcium-enriched beverages, optimization of prophylactic regimes, stimulation of salivary flow rate, use of buffering medicaments and particular motivation for nondestructive toothbrushing habits with an erosive-protecting toothpaste as well as rinsing solutions. Since erosion and abrasion often occur simultaneously, all of the causative components must be taken into consideration when planning preventive strategies but only those important and feasible for an individual should be communicated to the patient.