Testing Spatial Autocorrelation in Weighted Networks : the Modes Permutation Test

In a weighted spatial network, as specified by an exchange matrix, the variances of the spatial values are inversely proportional to the size of the regions. Spatial values are no more exchangeable under independence, thus weakening the rationale for ordinary permutation and bootstrap tests of spatial autocorrelation. We propose an alternative permutation test for spatial autocorrelation, based upon exchangeable spatial modes, constructed as linear orthogonal combinations of spatial values. The coefficients obtain as eigenvectors of the standardised exchange matrix appearing in spectral clustering, and generalise to the weighted case the concept of spatial filtering for connectivity matrices. Also, two proposals aimed at transforming an acessibility matrix into a exchange matrix with with a priori fixed margins are presented. Two examples (inter-regional migratory flows and binary adjacency networks) illustrate the formalism, rooted in the theory of spectral decomposition for reversible Markov chains.

Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

Analysis, modelling and visualisation of spatiotemporal data for urban studies

The proportion of population living in or around cites is more important than ever. Urban sprawl and car dependence have taken over the pedestrian-friendly compact city. Environmental problems like air pollution, land waste or noise, and health problems are the result of this still continuing process. The urban planners have to find solutions to these complex problems, and at the same time insure the economic performance of the city and its surroundings. At the same time, an increasing quantity of socio-economic and environmental data is acquired. In order to get a better understanding of the processes and phenomena taking place in the complex urban environment, these data should be analysed. Numerous methods for modelling and simulating such a system exist and are still under development and can be exploited by the urban geographers for improving our understanding of the urban metabolism. Modern and innovative visualisation techniques help in communicating the results of such models and simulations. This thesis covers several methods for analysis, modelling, simulation and visualisation of problems related to urban geography. The analysis of high dimensional socio-economic data using artificial neural network techniques, especially self-organising maps, is showed using two examples at different scales. The problem of spatiotemporal modelling and data representation is treated and some possible solutions are shown. The simulation of urban dynamics and more specifically the traffic due to commuting to work is illustrated using multi-agent micro-simulation techniques. A section on visualisation methods presents cartograms for transforming the geographic space into a feature space, and the distance circle map, a centre-based map representation particularly useful for urban agglomerations. Some issues on the importance of scale in urban analysis and clustering of urban phenomena are exposed. A new approach on how to define urban areas at different scales is developed, and the link with percolation theory established. Fractal statistics, especially the lacunarity measure, and scale laws are used for characterising urban clusters. In a last section, the population evolution is modelled using a model close to the well-established gravity model. The work covers quite a wide range of methods useful in urban geography. Methods should still be developed further and at the same time find their way into the daily work and decision process of urban planners. La part de personnes vivant dans une région urbaine est plus élevé que jamais et continue à croître. L'étalement urbain et la dépendance automobile ont supplanté la ville compacte adaptée aux piétons. La pollution de l'air, le gaspillage du sol, le bruit, et des problèmes de santé pour les habitants en sont la conséquence. Les urbanistes doivent trouver, ensemble avec toute la société, des solutions à ces problèmes complexes. En même temps, il faut assurer la performance économique de la ville et de sa région. Actuellement, une quantité grandissante de données socio-économiques et environnementales est récoltée. Pour mieux comprendre les processus et phénomènes du système complexe "ville", ces données doivent être traitées et analysées. Des nombreuses méthodes pour modéliser et simuler un tel système existent et sont continuellement en développement. Elles peuvent être exploitées par le géographe urbain pour améliorer sa connaissance du métabolisme urbain. Des techniques modernes et innovatrices de visualisation aident dans la communication des résultats de tels modèles et simulations. Cette thèse décrit plusieurs méthodes permettant d'analyser, de modéliser, de simuler et de visualiser des phénomènes urbains. L'analyse de données socio-économiques à très haute dimension à l'aide de réseaux de neurones artificiels, notamment des cartes auto-organisatrices, est montré à travers deux exemples aux échelles différentes. Le problème de modélisation spatio-temporelle et de représentation des données est discuté et quelques ébauches de solutions esquissées. La simulation de la dynamique urbaine, et plus spécifiquement du trafic automobile engendré par les pendulaires est illustrée à l'aide d'une simulation multi-agents. Une section sur les méthodes de visualisation montre des cartes en anamorphoses permettant de transformer l'espace géographique en espace fonctionnel. Un autre type de carte, les cartes circulaires, est présenté. Ce type de carte est particulièrement utile pour les agglomérations urbaines. Quelques questions liées à l'importance de l'échelle dans l'analyse urbaine sont également discutées. Une nouvelle approche pour définir des clusters urbains à des échelles différentes est développée, et le lien avec la théorie de la percolation est établi. Des statistiques fractales, notamment la lacunarité, sont utilisées pour caractériser ces clusters urbains. L'évolution de la population est modélisée à l'aide d'un modèle proche du modèle gravitaire bien connu. Le travail couvre une large panoplie de méthodes utiles en géographie urbaine. Toutefois, il est toujours nécessaire de développer plus loin ces méthodes et en même temps, elles doivent trouver leur chemin dans la vie quotidienne des urbanistes et planificateurs.

MADAP, a flexible clustering tool for the interpretation of one-dimensional genome annotation data.

A recurring task in the analysis of mass genome annotation data from high-throughput technologies is the identification of peaks or clusters in a noisy signal profile. Examples of such applications are the definition of promoters on the basis of transcription start site profiles, the mapping of transcription factor binding sites based on ChIP-chip data and the identification of quantitative trait loci (QTL) from whole genome SNP profiles. Input to such an analysis is a set of genome coordinates associated with counts or intensities. The output consists of a discrete number of peaks with respective volumes, extensions and center positions. We have developed for this purpose a flexible one-dimensional clustering tool, called MADAP, which we make available as a web server and as standalone program. A set of parameters enables the user to customize the procedure to a specific problem. The web server, which returns results in textual and graphical form, is useful for small to medium-scale applications, as well as for evaluation and parameter tuning in view of large-scale applications, requiring a local installation. The program written in C++ can be freely downloaded from ftp://ftp.epd.unil.ch/pub/software/unix/madap. The MADAP web server can be accessed at http://www.isrec.isb-sib.ch/madap/.

Spatial weights : constructing weight-compatible exchange matrices from proximity matrices

Exchange matrices represent spatial weights as symmetric probability distributions on pairs of regions, whose margins yield regional weights, generally well-specified and known in most contexts. This contribution proposes a mechanism for constructing exchange matrices, derived from quite general symmetric proximity matrices, in such a way that the margin of the exchange matrix coincides with the regional weights. Exchange matrices generate in turn diffusive squared Euclidean dissimilarities, measuring spatial remoteness between pairs of regions. Unweighted and weighted spatial frameworks are reviewed and compared, regarding in particular their impact on permutation and normal tests of spatial autocorrelation. Applications include tests of spatial autocorrelation with diagonal weights, factorial visualization of the network of regions, multivariate generalizations of Moran's I, as well as "landscape clustering", aimed at creating regional aggregates both spatially contiguous and endowed with similar features.

Documents : Dating a document

The determination of the age of a document is a very frequent query, however it is also one of the most challenging and controversial areas of questioned document examination. Several approaches were defined to address this problem. The first is based on the introduction date of raw constituents (like paper or ink) on the market. The second approach is based on the aging of documents, which is unfortunately not only influenced by passing time, but also by storage conditions and document composition. The third approach considers the relative age of documents and aims at reconstructing their chronology. The three approaches are equally complex to develop and encounter quantity of problems which are not negligible. This article aims to expose the potential applications and limitations of current ink dating methods. Method development and validation and the interpretation of evidence prove to be essential criteria for the dating of documents.

Interpretation: Printed Document Examination and Evidence

The literature dealing with the interpretation of results of examinations performed on "printed" documents is very limited. The absence of published literature reflects the absence of formal guidelines to help scientists assess the relationship between a questioned document and a particular printing technology. Generally, every printout, independent of the printing technology, may bear traces induced by characteristics of manufacture and/or acquired features of the printing device. A logical approach to help the scientist in the formal interpretation of such findings involves the consideration of a likelihood ratio. Three examples aim to show the application of this approach.

Cardiovascular response to beta-adrenergic blockade or activation in 23 inbred mouse strains.

We report the characterisation of 27 cardiovascular-related traits in 23 inbred mouse strains. Mice were phenotyped either in response to chronic administration of a single dose of the beta-adrenergic receptor blocker atenolol or under a low and a high dose of the beta-agonist isoproterenol and compared to baseline condition. The robustness of our data is supported by high trait heritabilities (typically H(2)>0.7) and significant correlations of trait values measured in baseline condition with independent multistrain datasets of the Mouse Phenome Database. We then focused on the drug-, dose-, and strain-specific responses to beta-stimulation and beta-blockade of a selection of traits including heart rate, systolic blood pressure, cardiac weight indices, ECG parameters and body weight. Because of the wealth of data accumulated, we applied integrative analyses such as comprehensive bi-clustering to investigate the structure of the response across the different phenotypes, strains and experimental conditions. Information extracted from these analyses is discussed in terms of novelty and biological implications. For example, we observe that traits related to ventricular weight in most strains respond only to the high dose of isoproterenol, while heart rate and atrial weight are already affected by the low dose. Finally, we observe little concordance between strain similarity based on the phenotypes and genotypic relatedness computed from genomic SNP profiles. This indicates that cardiovascular phenotypes are unlikely to segregate according to global phylogeny, but rather be governed by smaller, local differences in the genetic architecture of the various strains.

Clustering in complex networks. I. General formalism

We develop a full theoretical approach to clustering in complex networks. A key concept is introduced, the edge multiplicity, that measures the number of triangles passing through an edge. This quantity extends the clustering coefficient in that it involves the properties of two¿and not just one¿vertices. The formalism is completed with the definition of a three-vertex correlation function, which is the fundamental quantity describing the properties of clustered networks. The formalism suggests different metrics that are able to thoroughly characterize transitive relations. A rigorous analysis of several real networks, which makes use of this formalism and the metrics, is also provided. It is also found that clustered networks can be classified into two main groups: the weak and the strong transitivity classes. In the first class, edge multiplicity is small, with triangles being disjoint. In the second class, edge multiplicity is high and so triangles share many edges. As we shall see in the following paper, the class a network belongs to has strong implications in its percolation properties.

Clustering in complex networks. II. Percolation properties

The percolation properties of clustered networks are analyzed in detail. In the case of weak clustering, we present an analytical approach that allows us to find the critical threshold and the size of the giant component. Numerical simulations confirm the accuracy of our results. In more general terms, we show that weak clustering hinders the onset of the giant component whereas strong clustering favors its appearance. This is a direct consequence of the differences in the k-core structure of the networks, which are found to be totally different depending on the level of clustering. An empirical analysis of a real social network confirms our predictions.

Tuning clustering in random networks with arbitrary degree distributions

We present a generator of random networks where both the degree-dependent clustering coefficient and the degree distribution are tunable. Following the same philosophy as in the configuration model, the degree distribution and the clustering coefficient for each class of nodes of degree k are fixed ad hoc and a priori. The algorithm generates corresponding topologies by applying first a closure of triangles and second the classical closure of remaining free stubs. The procedure unveils an universal relation among clustering and degree-degree correlations for all networks, where the level of assortativity establishes an upper limit to the level of clustering. Maximum assortativity ensures no restriction on the decay of the clustering coefficient whereas disassortativity sets a stronger constraint on its behavior. Correlation measures in real networks are seen to observe this structural bound.

Les méthodes d'ajustement dans les modèles d'évaluation de la mortalité hospitalière. Partie 1, Etude descriptive : document de travail

Suite à la demande du Président de la République de disposer d'indicateurs de mortalité en établissements de santé » (discours du 18 septembre 2008 sur le thème de la politique de la santé et de la réforme du système de soins), la Direction de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiques (DREES) a piloté en 2009, en lien avec la Direction générale de l'offre de soins (DGOS) et la Haute autorité de santé (HAS), l'instruction des aspects méthodologiques relatifs à la construction de ces indicateurs de mortalité. Cette revue de littérature portant sur les différentes méthodes d'ajustement a été réalisée dans ce cadre, à la demande conjointe de la DREES et de la HAS.Ce rapport décrit les méthodes et modèles d'estimation et d'ajustement de la mortalité hospitalière identifiées dans la littérature.Il ressort de cette revue, que d'une manière générale, trois questions méthodologiques majeures préoccupent les épidémiologistes, les chercheurs et les décideurs s'intéressant à l'indicateur de la mortalité hospitalière : i) premièrement, sur l'opportunité d'établir l'indicateur de mortalité hospitalière à partir de groupes de population de patients homogènes définis par des pathologies et/ou des procédures médicales/chirurgicales cibles ; ii) deuxièmement, sur le type d'approche analytique et de l'intérêt de prendre en compte plusieurs niveaux dans l'analyse statistique ; iii) enfin troisièmement, sur le choix des variables d'ajustement permettant de contrôler les différences de case-mix entre plusieurs établissements ou groupes de patients pour réaliser des comparaisons. [Ed.]

Identification of different heart tissues from MRI C-SENC images using an unsupervised multi-stage fuzzy clustering technique.

PURPOSE: To objectively characterize different heart tissues from functional and viability images provided by composite-strain-encoding (C-SENC) MRI. MATERIALS AND METHODS: C-SENC is a new MRI technique for simultaneously acquiring cardiac functional and viability images. In this work, an unsupervised multi-stage fuzzy clustering method is proposed to identify different heart tissues in the C-SENC images. The method is based on sequential application of the fuzzy c-means (FCM) and iterative self-organizing data (ISODATA) clustering algorithms. The proposed method is tested on simulated heart images and on images from nine patients with and without myocardial infarction (MI). The resulting clustered images are compared with MRI delayed-enhancement (DE) viability images for determining MI. Also, Bland-Altman analysis is conducted between the two methods. RESULTS: Normal myocardium, infarcted myocardium, and blood are correctly identified using the proposed method. The clustered images correctly identified 90 +/- 4% of the pixels defined as infarct in the DE images. In addition, 89 +/- 5% of the pixels defined as infarct in the clustered images were also defined as infarct in DE images. The Bland-Altman results show no bias between the two methods in identifying MI. CONCLUSION: The proposed technique allows for objectively identifying divergent heart tissues, which would be potentially important for clinical decision-making in patients with MI.

Conserved chromosomal clustering of genes governed by chromatin regulators in Drosophila

Background: The trithorax group (trxG) and Polycomb group (PcG) proteins are responsible for the maintenance of stable transcriptional patterns of many developmental regulators. They bind to specific regions of DNA and direct the post-translational modifications of histones, playing a role in the dynamics of chromatin structure.Results: We have performed genome-wide expression studies of trx and ash2 mutants in Drosophila melanogaster. Using computational analysis of our microarray data, we have identified 25 clusters of genes potentially regulated by TRX. Most of these clusters consist of genes that encode structural proteins involved in cuticle formation. This organization appears to be a distinctive feature of the regulatory networks of TRX and other chromatin regulators, since we have observed the same arrangement in clusters after experiments performed with ASH2, as well as in experiments performed by others with NURF, dMyc, and ASH1. We have also found many of these clusters to be significantly conserved in D. simulans, D. yakuba, D. pseudoobscura and partially in Anopheles gambiae.Conclusion: The analysis of genes governed by chromatin regulators has led to the identification of clusters of functionally related genes conserved in other insect species, suggesting this chromosomal organization is biologically important. Moreover, our results indicate that TRX and other chromatin regulators may act globally on chromatin domains that contain transcriptionally co-regulated genes.

Guidance Document for Executive Order Number 17, March 25, 2010

Executive Order 17, signed by Governor Chester J. Culver on September 25, 2009, emphasizes revitalization of historic properties and cultural and entertainment districts and also supports safe and healthy work places, sustainable design and cost effective use of state resources. Specifically, the Executive Order requires that State entities managing or leasing real estate on behalf of the State shall give priority to the needs of public entities and the populations they serve consistent with the cost effective use of state revenues. It also indicates that existing resources and facilities shall be used where adequate, cost competitive and appropriate for efficient and effective current state operations.