Electricity load and price forecasting with influential factors in a deregulated power industry

With the emergence of smart power grid and distributed generation technologies in recent years, there is need to introduce new advanced models for forecasting. Electricity load and price forecasts are two primary factors needed in a deregulated power industry. The performances of the demand response programs are likely to be deteriorated in the absence of accurate load and price forecasting. Electricity generation companies, system operators, and consumers are highly reliant on the accuracy of the forecasting models. However, historical prices from the financial market, weekly price/load information, historical loads and day type are some of the explanatory factors that affect the accuracy of the forecasting. In this paper, a neural network (NN) model that considers different influential factors as feedback to the model is presented. This model is implemented with historical data from the ISO New England. It is observed during experiments that price forecasting is more complicated and hence less accurate than the load forecasting.

Rationale for the use of DC microgrids: feasibility, efficiency and protection analysis

Electrical power systems are undergoing highly significant changes in their structures. The emergence of renewable energy units in the power generation sector, the use of high-voltage DC in the power transmission sector, and the prevalence of islanded or integrated microgrids in the distribution sector are the strongest evidence supporting this claim. These changes are mostly the consequences of the increasing energy demand rate, climate change, and environmental challenges, as well as the high investment and maintenance cost of the previous structures. Considering these new conditions and according to the recent development in DC/DC conversion topologies and control techniques, different studies have been conducted on how and why DC microgrids outperform AC microgrids. This study discusses the feasibility of the DC microgrid system according to recent developments in power systems. The efficiency and power loss reduction in DC distribution systems are then analyzed, some of the common strategies and devices for protection systems in such networks are reviewed, and the possible and existing challenges in developing the DC microgrids are highlighted. The mathematical calculations and theories for this evaluation are presented to determine the reliable justification for selecting the appropriate microgrid systems.

Maximização da penetração da geração distribuída através do algoritmo de otimização nuvem de partículas

This work develops a methodology for defining the maximum active power being injected into predefined nodes in the studied distribution networks, considering the possibility of multiple accesses of generating units. The definition of these maximum values is obtained from an optimization study, in which further losses should not exceed those of the base case, i.e., without the presence of distributed generation. The restrictions on the loading of the branches and voltages of the system are respected. To face the problem it is proposed an algorithm, which is based on the numerical method called particle swarm optimization, applied to the study of AC conventional load flow and optimal load flow for maximizing the penetration of distributed generation. Alternatively, the Newton-Raphson method was incorporated to resolution of the load flow. The computer program is performed with the SCILAB software. The proposed algorithm is tested with the data from the IEEE network with 14 nodes and from another network, this one from the Rio Grande do Norte State, at a high voltage (69 kV), with 25 nodes. The algorithm defines allowed values of nominal active power of distributed generation, in percentage terms relative to the demand of the network, from reference values

Perspectivas de inserção da energia solar fotovoltaica na geração de energia elétrica no Rio Grande do Norte

The generation of electricity in Brazil is predominantly renewable, with internal hydraulic generation being more than 70% of its energy matrix. The electricity rationing occurred in 2001 due to lack of rain, led the country to increase the participation of alternative energy sources. This need for new sources of energy makes the regional potential to be exploited, which configures the change of generation model from centralized generation to distributed generation. Among the alternative sources of energy, the solar energy is presented as very promising for Brazil, given that most of its territory is located near to the equator line, which implies days with greater number of hours of solar radiation. The state of Rio Grande do Norte (RN) has one of the highest levels of solar irradiation of the Brazilian territory, making it eligible to receive investments for the installation of photovoltaic solar plants. This thesis will present the state-of-the-art in solar photovoltaic power generation and will examine the potential for generation of solar photovoltaic power in Brazil and RN, based on solarimetrics measurements conducted by various institutions and also measurements performed in Natal, the state capital

Network reconfiguration and loss allocation in a deregulated environment of distribution systems

Low flexibility and reliability in the operation of radial distribution networks make those systems be constructed with extra equipment as sectionalising switches in order to reconfigure the network, so the operation quality of the network can be improved. Thus, sectionalising switches are used for fault isolation and for configuration management (reconfiguration). Moreover, distribution systems are being impacted by the increasing insertion of distributed generators. Hence, distributed generation became one of the relevant parameters in the evaluation of systems reconfiguration. Distributed generation may affect distribution networks operation in various ways, causing noticeable impacts depending on its location. Thus, the loss allocation problem becomes more important considering the possibility of open access to the distribution networks. In this work, a graphic simulator for distribution networks with reconfiguration and loss allocation functions, is presented. Reconfiguration problem is solved through a heuristic methodology, using a robust power flow algorithm based on the current summation backward-forward technique, considering distributed generation. Four different loss allocation methods (Zbus, Direct Loss Coefficient, Substitution and Marginal Loss Coefficient) are implemented and compared. Results for a 32-bus medium voltage distribution network, are presented and discussed.

Evaluating the effects of high penetrations of roof-top wind Turbines on secondary distribution circuits

Incentives for using wind power and the increasing price of energy might generate in a relatively short time a scenario where low voltage customers opt to install roof-top wind turbines. This paper focuses on evaluating the effects of such situation in terms of energy consumption, loss reduction, reverse power flow and voltage profiles. Various commercially-available roof-top wind turbines are installed in two secondary distribution circuits considering real-life wind speed data and seasonal load demand. Results are presented and discussed. © 2006 IEEE.

Minimal cross-subsidies approach for loss allocation in distribution networks with open access

Open access philosophy applied by regulatory agencies may lead to a scenario where captive consumers will solely face the responsibility on distribution network's losses even with Independent Energy Producers (also known as Distributed Generation) and Independent Energy Consumers connected to the system. This work proposes the utilization of a loss allocation method in distribution systems where open access is allowed, in which cross-subsidies, that appear due to the influence the generators have over the system losses, are minimized. Thus, guaranteeing to some extent the efficiency and transparency of the economic signals of the market. Results obtained through the Zbus loss allocation method adapted for distribution networks are processed in such a way that the corresponding allocation to the generation buses is divided among the consumer buses, while still considering consumers spatial characteristics. © 2007 IEEE.

Economical analysis of ethanol steam reformer for hydrogen production associated with a sugarcane industry

An expressive amount of produced hydrogen is generated by customers in-situ such as petrochemical, fertilizer and sugarcane industries. However, the most utilized feedstock is natural gas, a non-renewable and fossil fuel. The introduction of biohydrogen production process associated in a sugarcane industry is an alternative to diminish emissions and contribute to create a CO2 cycle, where the plants capture this gas by photosynthesis process and produces sucrose for ethanol production. The cost of production of ethanol has dramatically decreased (from about US$ 700/m3 in 1970s to US$ 200/m3 today), becoming this a good option at near term, inclusively for its utilization by customers localized in main regions (localized especially in regions such as Southeastern Brazil) Also in near future, it will possible the utilization of fuel cells as form of distributed generation. Its utilization could occur specially in peak hours, diminishing the cost of investments in newer transmission systems. A technical and economic analysis of steam reformer of ethanol to hydrogen production associated with sugarcane industry was recently performed. This technique will also allow the use of ethanol when its price is relatively low. This study was based on a previous R&D study (sponsored by CEMIG - State of Minas Gerais Electricity Company) where thermodynamic and economic analyses were developed, based in the development of two ethanol steam reformers prototypes.x In this study an analysis was performed considering the use of bagasse as source of heat in the steam reforming process. Its use could to diminish the costs of hydrogen production, especially at large scale, obtaining cost-competitive production and permitting that sugarcane industry produces hydrogen in large scale beyond ethylic alcohol, anhydrous alcohol (or ethanol) and sugar.

Distribution system restoration in a DG environment using a heuristic constructive multi-start algorithm

This paper proposes a heuristic constructive multi-start algorithm (HCMA) to distribution system restoration in real time considering distributed generators installed in the system. The problem is modeled as nonlinear mixed integer and considers the two main goals of the restoration of distribution networks: minimizing the number of consumers without power and the number of switching. The proposed algorithm is implemented in C++ programming language and tested using a large real-life distribution system. The results show that the proposed algorithm is able to provide a set of feasible and good quality solutions in a suitable time for the problem. © 2011 IEEE.

A set of linear equations to calculate the steady-state operation of an electrical distribution system

In this paper, the calculation of the steady-state operation of a radial/meshed electrical distribution system (EDS) through solving a system of linear equations (non-iterative load flow) is presented. The constant power type demand of the EDS is modeled through linear approximations in terms of real and imaginary parts of the voltage taking into account the typical operating conditions of the EDS's. To illustrate the use of the proposed set of linear equations, a linear model for the optimal power flow with distributed generator is presented. Results using some test and real systems show the excellent performance of the proposed methodology when is compared with conventional methods. © 2011 IEEE.

Power electronics courses for the new paradigms of the electrical system

This paper presents a historical perspective of the Power Electronics education that has lead to the present situation in which such technology is indispensable for the exploitation of almost all type of clean energy primary sources. Some academic initiatives in Brazil are here discussed focusing the institutions grouped in a CAPES-Pró-Engenharia program. The curricula aspects and innovations are presented, emphasizing the multidisciplinary character of this field of Power Electronics application. © 2011 IEEE.

Design of biogas pipeline - Energy and sanitation

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Mini-inversores para aproveitamento de energia fotovoltaica, com técnicas de MPPT, sincronismo e conexão com a rede de CA em BT, proteção de ilhamento, gerenciamento da energia e da operação

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS