957 resultados para discrete choice theory


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The dynamic response of dry masonry columns can be approximated with finite-difference equations. Continuum models follow by replacing the difference quotients of the discrete model by corresponding differential expressions. The mathematically simplest of these models is a one-dimensional Cosserat theory. Within the presented homogenization context, the Cosserat theory is obtained by making ad hoc assumptions regarding the relative importance of certain terms in the differential expansions. The quality of approximation of the various theories is tested by comparison of the dispersion relations for bending waves with the dispersion relation of the discrete theory. All theories coincide with differences of less than 1% for wave-length-block-height (L/h) ratios bigger than 2 pi. The theory based on systematic differential approximation remains accurate up to L/h = 3 and then diverges rapidly. The Cosserat model becomes increasingly inaccurate for L/h < 2 pi. However, in contrast to the systematic approximation, the wave speed remains finite. In conclusion, considering its relative simplicity, the Cosserat model appears to be the natural starting point for the development of continuum models for blocky structures.

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HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

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Humans play a role in deciding the fate of species in the current extinction wave. Because of the previous Similarity Principle, physical attractiveness and likeability, it has been argued that public choice favours the survival of species that satisfy these criteria at the expense of other species. This paper empirically tests this argument by considering a hypothetical ‘Ark’ situation. Surveys of 204 members of the Australian public inquired whether they are in favour of the survival of each of 24 native mammal, bird and reptile species (prior to and after information provision about each species). The species were ranked by percentage of ‘yes’ votes received. Species composition by taxon in various fractions of the ranking was determined. If the previous Similarity Principle holds, mammals should rank highly and dominate the top fractions of animals saved in the hierarchical list. We find that although mammals would be over-represented in the ‘Ark’, birds and reptiles are unlikely to be excluded when social choice is based on numbers ‘voting’ for the survival of each species. Support for the previous Similarity Principle is apparent particularly after information provision. Public policy implications of this are noted and recommendations are given.

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This paper deals with non-Markovian behavior in atomic systems coupled to a structured reservoir of quantum electromagnetic field modes, with particular relevance to atoms interacting with the field in high-Q cavities or photonic band-gap materials. In cases such as the former, we show that the pseudomode theory for single-quantum reservoir excitations can be obtained by applying the Fano diagonalization method to a system in which the atomic transitions are coupled to a discrete set of (cavity) quasimodes, which in turn are coupled to a continuum set of (external) quasimodes with slowly varying coupling constants and continuum mode density. Each pseudomode can be identified with a discrete quasimode, which gives structure to the actual reservoir of true modes via the expressions for the equivalent atom-true mode coupling constants. The quasimode theory enables cases of multiple excitation of the reservoir to now be treated via Markovian master equations for the atom-discrete quasimode system. Applications of the theory to one, two, and many discrete quasimodes are made. For a simple photonic band-gap model, where the reservoir structure is associated with the true mode density rather than the coupling constants, the single quantum excitation case appears to be equivalent to a case with two discrete quasimodes.

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This paper proposes an alternative geometric framework for analysing the inter-relationship between domestic saving, productivity and income determination in discrete time. The framework provides a means of understanding how low saving economies like the United States sustained high growth rates in the 1990s whereas high saving Japan did not. It also illustrates how the causality between saving and economic activity runs both ways and that discrete changes in national output and income depend on both current and previous accumulation behaviour. The open economy analogue reveals how international capital movements can create external account imbalances that enhance income growth for both borrower and lender economies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Supply and demand largely determine the price of goods on human markets. It has been proposed that in animals, similar forces influence the payoff distribution between trading partners in Sexual selection, intraspecific cooperation and interspecific mutualism. Here we present the first experimental evidence supporting biological market theory in it study on cleaner fish, Labroides dimidiatus. Cleaners interact with two classes of clients: choosy client species with access to several cleaners usually do not queue for service and do not return if ignored, while resident client species with access to only one cleaning station do queue or return. We used plexiglas plates with equal amounts of food to stimulate these behaviours of the two client classes. Cleaners soon inspected 'choosy' plates before 'resident' plates. This supports previous field observations that suggest that client species with access to several cleaners exert choice to receive better(immediate) service.

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This paper tests the explanatory capacities of different versions of new institutionalism by examining the Australian case of a general transition in central banking practice and monetary politics: namely, the increased emphasis on low inflation and central bank independence. Standard versions of rational choice institutionalism largely dominate the literature on the politics of central banking, but this approach (here termed RC1) fails to account for Australian empirics. RC1 has a tendency to establish actor preferences exogenously to the analysis; actors' motives are also assumed a priori; actor's preferences are depicted in relatively static, ahistorical terms. And there is the tendency, even a methodological requirement, to assume relatively simple motives and preference sets among actors, in part because of the game theoretic nature of RC1 reasoning. It is possible to build a more accurate rational choice model by re-specifying and essentially updating the context, incentives and choice sets that have driven rational choice in this case. Enter RC2. However, this move subtly introduces methodological shifts and new theoretical challenges. By contrast, historical institutionalism uses an inductive methodology. Compared with deduction, it is arguably better able to deal with complexity and nuance. It also utilises a dynamic, historical approach, and specifies (dynamically) endogenous preference formation by interpretive actors. Historical institutionalism is also able to more easily incorporate a wider set of key explanatory variables and incorporate wider social aggregates. Hence, it is argued that historical institutionalism is the preferred explanatory theory and methodology in this case.

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The outer-sphere redox behaviour of a series of [LnCoIII-NCFeII(CN)(5)](-) (L-n = n-membered pentadentate aza-macrocycle) complexes have been studied as a function of pH and oxidising agent. All the dinuclear complexes show a double protonation process at pH approximate to 2 that produces a shift in their UV/Vis spectra. Oxidation of the different non-protonated and diprotonated complexes has been carried out with peroxodisulfate, and of the non-protonated complexes also with trisoxalatocobaltate(III). The results are in agreement with predictions from the Marcus theory. The oxidation of [Fe(phen)(3)](3+) and [IrCl6](2-) is too fast to be measured, although for the latter the transient observation of the process has been achieved at pH = 0. The study of the kinetics of the outer-sphere redox process, with the S2O82- and [Co(ox)(3)](3-) oxidants, has been carried out as a function of pH, temperature, and pressure. As a whole, the values found for the activation volumes, entropies, and enthalpies are in the following margins, for the diprotonated and non-protonated dinuclear complexes, respectively: DeltaV(not equal) from 11 to 13 and 15 to 20 cm(3) mol(-1); DeltaS(not equal) from 110 to 30 and -60 to -90 J K-1 mol(-1); DeltaH(not equal) from 115 to 80 and 50 to 65 kJ.mol(-1). The thermal activation parameters are clearly dominated by the electrostriction occurring on outer-sphere precursor formation, while the trends found for the values of the volume of activation indicate an important degree of tuning due to the charge distribution during the electron transfer process. The special arrangement on the amine ligands in the isomer trans[(L14CoNCFeII)-N-III(CN)(5)](-) accounts for important differences in solvent-assisted hydrogen bonding occurring within the outer-sphere redox process, as has been established in redox reactions of similar compounds. ((C) Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, 69451 Weinheim, Germany, 2003).

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Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

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Nonlinear Dynamics, Vol. 29

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Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Computational Cybernetics, Vienna University of Technology, August 30 - September 1, 2004

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Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

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A theory of free vibrations of discrete fractional order (FO) systems with a finite number of degrees of freedom (dof) is developed. A FO system with a finite number of dof is defined by means of three matrices: mass inertia, system rigidity and FO elements. By adopting a matrix formulation, a mathematical description of FO discrete system free vibrations is determined in the form of coupled fractional order differential equations (FODE). The corresponding solutions in analytical form, for the special case of the matrix of FO properties elements, are determined and expressed as a polynomial series along time. For the eigen characteristic numbers, the system eigen main coordinates and the independent eigen FO modes are determined. A generalized function of visoelastic creep FO dissipation of energy and generalized forces of system with no ideal visoelastic creep FO dissipation of energy for generalized coordinates are formulated. Extended Lagrange FODE of second kind, for FO system dynamics, are also introduced. Two examples of FO chain systems are analyzed and the corresponding eigen characteristic numbers determined. It is shown that the oscillatory phenomena of a FO mechanical chain have analogies to electrical FO circuits. A FO electrical resistor is introduced and its constitutive voltage–current is formulated. Also a function of thermal energy FO dissipation of a FO electrical relation is discussed.