Analysis of small signal stability margins using genetic optimization

Power system small signal stability analysis aims to explore different small signal stability conditions and controls, namely: (1) exploring the power system security domains and boundaries in the space of power system parameters of interest, including load flow feasibility, saddle node and Hopf bifurcation ones; (2) finding the maximum and minimum damping conditions; and (3) determining control actions to provide and increase small signal stability. These problems are presented in this paper as different modifications of a general optimization to a minimum/maximum, depending on the initial guesses of variables and numerical methods used. In the considered problems, all the extreme points are of interest. Additionally, there are difficulties with finding the derivatives of the objective functions with respect to parameters. Numerical computations of derivatives in traditional optimization procedures are time consuming. In this paper, we propose a new black-box genetic optimization technique for comprehensive small signal stability analysis, which can effectively cope with highly nonlinear objective functions with multiple minima and maxima, and derivatives that can not be expressed analytically. The optimization result can then be used to provide such important information such as system optimal control decision making, assessment of the maximum network's transmission capacity, etc. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Assisting decision-making in Queensland barley production through chance constrained programming

A chance constrained programming model is developed to assist Queensland barley growers make varietal and agronomic decisions in the face of changing product demands and volatile production conditions. Unsuitable or overlooked in many risk programming applications, the chance constrained programming approach nonetheless aptly captures the single-stage decision problem faced by barley growers of whether to plant lower-yielding but potentially higher-priced malting varieties, given a particular expectation of meeting malting grade standards. Different expectations greatly affect the optimal mix of malting and feed barley activities. The analysis highlights the suitability of chance constrained programming to this specific class of farm decision problem.

Qualitative assessment of stock prices listed on the Sao Paulo stock exchange: An approach from the perspective of homogeneity analysis

The stock market suffers uncertain relations throughout the entire negotiation process, with different variables exerting direct and indirect influence on stock prices. This study focuses on the analysis of certain aspects that may influence these values offered by the capital market, based on the Brazil Index of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa), which selects 100 stocks among the most traded on Bovespa in terms of number of trades and financial volume. The selected variables are characterized by the companies` activity area and the business volume in the month of data collection, i.e. April/2007. This article proposes an analysis that joins the accounting view of the stock price variables that can be influenced with the use of multivariate qualitative data analysis. Data were explored through Correspondence Analysis (Anacor) and Homogeneity Analysis (Homals). According to the research, the selected variables are associated with the values presented by the stocks, which become an internal control instrument and a decision-making tool when it comes to choosing investments.

Incorporating demand-side aspects into regional policy: variations in the importance of private investment decision factors across regions

Most regional programs focus on the supply side of regions, emphasizing the attraction conditions offered, such as infrastructure, labor skills, tax incentives, etc. This study analyzes one aspect of the demand side, that is, how investment decisions of private firms are made by asking the question: ""Do corporations decide the same way on investments in different parts of the territory?"" The paper analyzes the investments of 373 large Brazilian firms during 1996-2004. Based on the investment decisions of these firms, the role of sales, cash-flow, external financing, and working capital is investigated through regression analysis. The regional influence is captured by explanatory variables representing regional and firm characteristics, and by interaction dummies between the region and the main investment determinants. The results indicate significant differences across regions in the importance of investment determinants. This information is important for regional development policy, because different mechanisms should be used in different regions to foster private investments.

Are the recommendations from three-dimensional gait analysis associated with better postoperative outcomes in patients with cerebral palsy?

This study was performed to check if recommendations based on three-dimensional gait analysis (3DGA) are associated with better postoperative outcomes in patients with cerebral palsy (CP). Thirty-eight patients who underwent orthopedic surgery and assessment at the Gait Analysis Laboratory were evaluated retrospectively. The patients were divided in four groups according to the agreement between the recommendations from gait analysis and the procedures actually carried out. Fifteen patients with diplegic spastic cerebral palsy and indication for orthopedic surgery to improve walking - and whose surgical intervention was postponed - were also included in the study as a control group. Fourteen gait parameters recorded before and after treatment, were included in the statistical analysis. No gait improvement was noted in the control group or inh patients on whom no procedures recommended by the gait exam were performed (agreement of 0%). In the other groups, agreements averaged 46.71%, 72.2%, and 100%, respectively. Improvement of gait parameters after treatment was observed in these groups, with more significant values directly related to increased agreement percentage. Therefore, in this study the patients whose treatment matched the recommendations from three-dimensional gait analysis showed a more significant improvement in walking. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of routine rotavirus vaccination in Brazil

Objective. The objective of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of a universal rotavirus vaccination program among children : 5 years of age in Brazil. Methods. Considering a hypothetical annual cohort of approximately 3 300 000 newborns followed over 5 years, a decision-tree model was constructed to examine the possible clinical and economic effects of rotavirus infection with and without routine vaccination of children. Probabilities and unit costs were derived from published research and national administrative data. The impact of different estimates for key parameters was studied using sensitivity analysis. The analysis was conducted from both healthcare system and societal perspectives. Results. The vaccination program was estimated to prevent approximately 1735 351 (54%) of the 3 210 361 cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis and 703 (75%) of 933 rotavirus-associated deaths during the 5-year period. At a vaccine price of 18.6 Brazilian reais (R$) per dose, this program would cost R$121 673 966 and would save R$38 536 514 in direct costs to the public healthcare system and R$71 778 377 in direct and indirect costs to society. The program was estimated to cost R$1 028 and R$1 713 per life-years saved (LYS)from the societal and healthcare system perspectives, respectively. Conclusions. Universal rotavirus vaccination was a cost-effective strategy for both perspectives. However, these findings are highly sensitive to diarrhea incidence rate, proportion of severe cases, vaccine coverage, and vaccine price.

A decision support system to facilitate management of patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding

Objective: To develop a model to predict the bleeding source and identify the cohort amongst patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) who require urgent intervention, including endoscopy. Patients with acute GIB, an unpredictable event, are most commonly evaluated and managed by non-gastroenterologists. Rapid and consistently reliable risk stratification of patients with acute GIB for urgent endoscopy may potentially improve outcomes amongst such patients by targeting scarce health-care resources to those who need it the most. Design and methods: Using ICD-9 codes for acute GIB, 189 patients with acute GIB and all. available data variables required to develop and test models were identified from a hospital medical records database. Data on 122 patients was utilized for development of the model and on 67 patients utilized to perform comparative analysis of the models. Clinical data such as presenting signs and symptoms, demographic data, presence of co-morbidities, laboratory data and corresponding endoscopic diagnosis and outcomes were collected. Clinical data and endoscopic diagnosis collected for each patient was utilized to retrospectively ascertain optimal management for each patient. Clinical presentations and corresponding treatment was utilized as training examples. Eight mathematical models including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), shrunken centroid (SC), random forest (RF), logistic regression, and boosting were trained and tested. The performance of these models was compared using standard statistical analysis and ROC curves. Results: Overall the random forest model best predicted the source, need for resuscitation, and disposition with accuracies of approximately 80% or higher (accuracy for endoscopy was greater than 75%). The area under ROC curve for RF was greater than 0.85, indicating excellent performance by the random forest model Conclusion: While most mathematical models are effective as a decision support system for evaluation and management of patients with acute GIB, in our testing, the RF model consistently demonstrated the best performance. Amongst patients presenting with acute GIB, mathematical models may facilitate the identification of the source of GIB, need for intervention and allow optimization of care and healthcare resource allocation; these however require further validation. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A decision support process to compare Riparian revegetation options in Scheu Creek catchment in North Queensland

While riparian vegetation can play a major role in protecting land, water and natural habitat in catchments, there are high costs associated with tree planting and establishment and in diverting land from cropping. The distribution of costs and benefits of riparian revegetation creates conflicts in the objectives of various stakeholder groups. Multicriteria analysis provides an appropriate tool to evaluate alternative riparian revegetation options, and to accommodate the conflicting views of various stakeholder groups. This paper discusses an application of multicriteria analysis in an evaluation of riparian revegetation policy options for Scheu Creek, a small sub-catchment in the Johnstone River catchment in north Queensland, Australia. Clear differences are found in the rankings of revegetation options for different stakeholder groups with respect to environmental, social and economic impacts. Implementation of a revegetation option will involve considerable cost for landholders for the benefits of society. Queensland legislation does not provide a means to require farmers to implement riparian revegetation, hence the need for subsidies, tau incentives and moral suasion. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Work domain analysis and sensors II: Pasteurizer II case study

In this paper we use sensor-annotated abstraction hierarchies (Reising & Sanderson, 1996, 2002a,b) to show that unless appropriately instrumented, configural displays designed according to the principles of ecological interface design (EID) might be vulnerable to misinterpretation when sensors become unreliable or are unavailable. Building on foundations established in Reising and Sanderson (2002a) we use a pasteurization process control example to show how sensor-annotated AHs help the analyst determine the impact of different instrumentation engineering policies on a configural display that is part of an ecological interface. Our analyses suggest that configural displays showing higher-order properties of a system are especially vulnerable under some conservative instrumentation configurations. However, sensor-annotated AHs can be used to indicate where corrective instrumentation might be placed. We argue that if EID is to be effectively employed in the design of displays for complex systems, then the information needs of the human operator need to be considered while instrumentation requirements are being formulated. Rasmussen's abstraction hierarchy-and particularly its extension to the analysis of information captured by sensors and derived from sensors-may therefore be a useful adjunct to up-stream instrumentation design. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A probabilistic analysis of Clostridium perfringens growth during food service operations

The purpose of this study was threefold: first, the study was designed to illustrate the use of data and information collected in food safety surveys in a quantitative risk assessment. In this case, the focus was on the food service industry; however, similar data from other parts of the food chain could be similarly incorporated. The second objective was to quantitatively describe and better understand the role that the food service industry plays in the safety of food. The third objective was to illustrate the additional decision-making information that is available when uncertainty and variability are incorporated into the modelling of systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting the HER2 status of breast cancer from basic histopathology data: an analysis of 1500 breast cancers as part of the HER2000 International Study

The tests that are currently available for the measurement of overexpression of the human epidermal growth factor-2 (HER2) in breast cancer have shown considerable problems in accuracy and interlaboratory reproducibility. Although these problems are partly alleviated by the use of validated, standardised 'kits', there may be considerable cost involved in their use. Prior to testing it may therefore be an advantage to be able to predict from basic pathology data whether a cancer is likely to overexpress HER2. In this study, we have correlated pathology features of cancers with the frequency of HER2 overexpression assessed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) using HercepTest (Dako). In addition, fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) has been used to re-test the equivocal cancers and interobserver variation in assessing HER2 overexpression has been examined by a slide circulation scheme. Of the 1536 cancers, 1144 (74.5%) did not overexpress HER2. Unequivocal overexpression (3+ by IHC) was seen in 186 cancers (12%) and an equivocal result (2+ by IHC) was seen in 206 cancers (13%). Of the 156 IHC 3+ cancers for which complete data was available, 149 (95.5%) were ductal NST and 152 (97%) were histological grade 2 or 3. Only 1 of 124 infiltrating lobular carcinomas (0.8%) showed HER2 overexpression. None of the 49 'special types' of carcinoma showed HER2 overexpression. Re-testing by FISH of a proportion of the IHC 2+ cancers showed that only 25 (23%) of those assessable exhibited HER2 gene amplification, but 46 of the 47 IHC 3+ cancers (98%) were confirmed as showing gene amplification. Circulating slides for the assessment of HER2 score showed a moderate level of agreement between pathologists (kappa 0.4). As a result of this study we would advocate consideration of a triage approach to HER-2 testing. Infiltrating lobular and special types of carcinoma may not need to be routinely tested at presentation nor may grade 1 NST carcinomas in which only 1.4% have been shown to overexpress HER2. Testing of these carcinomas may be performed when HER2 status is required to assist in therapeutic or other clinical/prognostic decision-making. The highest yield of HER2 overexpressing carcinomas is seen in the grade 3 NST subgroup in which 24% are positive by IHC. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reviewing horizontalization: the challenge of analysis in Brazilian foreign policy

Abstract This article presents the increasing demands over the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Itamaraty) for opening its doors to other actors. This discussion will be followed by relevant theoretical and methodological analysis. We will defend the need to overcome problems related to: 1) conceptual vagueness about what the concept of participation means; 2) lack of clarity in the baseline to which comparisons are made; 3) fragile empirical basis; 4) limitations on the use of sources; and 5) how to understand the impact exerted by systemic forces.

Economic Analysis of Occupational Risk Prevention in the Construction Sector

The construction sector has one of the worst occupational safety and health records in Europe. The costs of this scenario are very high, namely costs for workers and their families, costs to organizations, resulting from the absence of workers due to illness, insurance premiums, costs resulting from reduced productivity, cost of replacement and training of workers, etc., and costs to society, which in turn increases the costs of health systems. This paper presents and discusses the development of a methodology for economic evaluation in the context of risk management, which will allow senior management to support decision making. The possible application of this methodology to the construction sector is discussed.

Analysis of the return on preventive measures in musculoskeletal disorders through the benefitecost ratio: A case study in a hospital

Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) are among the most costly health problems that society is facing today. Prevention involves investments and it is important for organizations to make a cost ebenefit analysis of ergonomic projects. Return on prevention is a recent concern in the domain of occupational safety and health (OSH). There are many studies concerning the return on the prevention of WMSDs, in terms of the benefits for the organization in which the preventive measures are implemented. However, it is also important to perform an analysis of the impact of each measure on society (externalities). A model to perform a financial and economic costebenefit analysis related to OSH projects was developed and it was applied in the case of the prevention of WMSDs in a Portuguese hospital. An analysis of the accidents and corresponding costs has been made in six of the services of the hospital. Financial and an economic costebenefit analysis have been made and the benefitecost ratio (B/C) has been calculated. While the B/C financial ratio, considering only the benefits to the hospital, is around 2, the economic B/C ratio, taking into account all the external benefits that have been quantified, is higher than 14. Relevance to industry: Both the economic and the financial B/C ratio are important support tools for decision makers in public and private organizations, helping them to define which preventive measures should be implemented, taking into account the costs involved and the resulting quantified benefits, for the organization, for the workers and for the society.

Do stakeholders matter in strategic decision making of a sports organization?

This study aims to identify and prioritize the stakeholders involved in making decisions in a sports organization. A multiple linear regression analysis was used to assess the influence of the attributes of power, legitimacy and urgency on the salience of the various stakeholders. The results showed a convergence of external and internal decision makers' perceptions, concerning the three main stakeholder groups: top management, sponsors and member association. Pearson correlations identified four types of stakeholder: definitive, dangerous, demanding and non-stakeholders. A generalized differentiation was also found in stakeholder classification, regarding evaluation of attributes, between external and internal decision makers. In addition, the study suggests the success of organizations' management will depend on correct identification of stakeholders and consequent assessment of their relevance, in order to highlight who should get priority, and how, in strategic decision making.