A framework for adapting survey design through time for wildlife population assessment

Sampling strategies for monitoring the status and trends in wildlife populations are often determined before the first survey is undertaken. However, there may be little information about the distribution of the population and so the sample design may be inefficient. Through time, as data are collected, more information about the distribution of animals in the survey region is obtained but it can be difficult to incorporate this information in the survey design. This paper introduces a framework for monitoring motile wildlife populations within which the design of future surveys can be adapted using data from past surveys whilst ensuring consistency in design-based estimates of status and trends through time. In each survey, part of the sample is selected from the previous survey sample using simple random sampling. The rest is selected with inclusion probability proportional to predicted abundance. Abundance is predicted using a model constructed from previous survey data and covariates for the whole survey region. Unbiased design-based estimators of status and trends and their variances are derived from two-phase sampling theory. Simulations over the short and long-term indicate that in general more precise estimates of status and trends are obtained using this mixed strategy than a strategy in which all of the sample is retained or all selected with probability proportional to predicted abundance. Furthermore the mixed strategy is robust to poor predictions of abundance. Estimates of status are more precise than those obtained from a rotating panel design.

Measuring significant variability characteristics: An assessment of three UK renewables

The variability of renewable energy is widely recognised as a challenge for integrating high levels of renewable generation into electricity systems. However, to explore its implications effectively, variability itself should first be clearly understood. This is particularly true for national electricity systems with high planned penetration of renewables and limited interconnection such as the UK. Variability cannot be considered as a distinct resource property with a single measurable parameter, but is a multi-faceted concept best described by a range of distinct characteristics. This paper identifies relevant characteristics of variability, and considers their implications for energy research. This is done through analysis of wind, solar and tidal current resources, with a primary focus on the Bristol Channel region in the UK. The relationship with electricity demand is considered, alongside the potential benefits of resource diversity. Analysis is presented in terms of persistence, distribution, frequency and correlation between supply and demand. Marked differences are seen between the behaviours of the individual resources, and these give rise to a range of different implications for system integration. Wind shows strong persistence and a useful seasonal pattern, but also a high spread in energy levels at timescales beyond one or two days. The solar resource is most closely correlated with electricity demand, but is undermined by night-time zero values and an even greater spread of monthly energy delivered than wind. In contrast, the tidal resource exhibits very low persistence, but also much greater consistency in energy values assessed across monthly time scales. Whilst this paper focuses primarily on the behaviour of resources, it is noted that discrete variability characteristics can be related to different system impacts. Persistence and predictability are relevant for system balancing, whereas statistical distribution is more relevant when exploring issues of asset utilisation and energy curtailment. Areas of further research are also identified, including the need to assess the value of predictability in relation to other characteristics.

An evaluation of the spatiotemporal structure of large-scale European drought within the HiGEM climate model

We compare the characteristics of synthetic European droughts generated by the HiGEM1 coupled climate model run with present day atmospheric composition with observed drought events extracted from the CRU TS3 data set. The results demonstrate consistency in both the rate of drought occurrence and the spatiotemporal structure of the events. Estimates of the probability density functions for event area, duration and severity are shown to be similar with confidence > 90%. Encouragingly, HiGEM is shown to replicate the extreme tails of the observed distributions and thus the most damaging European drought events. The soil moisture state is shown to play an important role in drought development. Once a large-scale drought has been initiated it is found to be 50% more likely to continue if the local soil moisture is below the 40th percentile. In response to increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2, the modelled droughts are found to increase in duration, area and severity. The drought response can be largely attributed to temperature driven changes in relative humidity. 1 HiGEM is based on the latest climate configuration of the Met Office Hadley Centre Unified Model (HadGEM1) with the horizontal resolution increased to 1.25 x 0.83 degrees in longitude and latitude in the atmosphere and 1/3 x 1/3 degrees in the ocean.

The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on a series of indicators of hydrological regimes across the global domain, using a global hydrological model run with climate scenarios constructed using pattern-scaling from 21 CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3) climate models. Changes are compared with natural variability, with a significant change being defined as greater than the standard deviation of the hydrological indicator in the absence of climate change. Under an SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1b emissions scenario, substantial proportions of the land surface (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) would experience significant changes in hydrological behaviour by 2050; under one climate model scenario (Hadley Centre HadCM3), average annual runoff increases significantly over 47% of the land surface and decreases over 36%; only 17% therefore sees no significant change. There is considerable variability between regions, depending largely on projected changes in precipitation. Uncertainty in projected river flow regimes is dominated by variation in the spatial patterns of climate change between climate models (hydrological model uncertainty is not included). There is, however, a strong degree of consistency in the overall magnitude and direction of change. More than two-thirds of climate models project a significant increase in average annual runoff across almost a quarter of the land surface, and a significant decrease over 14%, with considerably higher degrees of consistency in some regions. Most climate models project increases in runoff in Canada and high-latitude eastern Europe and Siberia, and decreases in runoff in central Europe, around the Mediterranean, the Mashriq, central America and Brasil. There is some evidence that projecte change in runoff at the regional scale is not linear with change in global average temperature change. The effects of uncertainty in the rate of future emissions is relatively small

Unconscious effects of grammatical gender during object categorisation

Does language modulate perception and categorisation of everyday objects? Here, we approach this question from the perspective of grammatical gender in bilinguals. We tested Spanish–English bilinguals and control native speakers of English in a semantic categorisation task on triplets of pictures in an all-in-English context while measuring event-related brain potentials (ERPs). Participants were asked to press a button when the third picture of a triplet belonged to the same semantic category as the first two, and another button when it belonged to a different category. Unbeknownst to them, in half of the trials, the gender of the third picture name in Spanish had the same gender as that of the first two, and the opposite gender in the other half. We found no priming in behavioural results of either semantic relatedness or gender consistency. In contrast, ERPs revealed not only the expected semantic priming effect in both groups, but also a negative modulation by gender inconsistency in Spanish–English bilinguals, exclusively. These results provide evidence for spontaneous and unconscious access to grammatical gender in participants functioning in a context requiring no access to such information, thereby providing support for linguistic relativity effects in the grammatical domain.

An investigation to enhance understanding of the stimulation of weed seedling emergence by soil disturbance

Enhanced understanding of soil disturbance effects on weed seedling recruitment will help guide improved management approaches. Field experiments were conducted at 16 site-years at 10 research farms across Europe and North America to (i) quantify superficial soil disturbance (SSD) effects on Chenopodium album emergence and (ii) clarify adaptive emergence behaviour in frequently disturbed environments. Each site-year contained factorial combinations of two seed populations (local and common, with the common population studied at all site-years) and six SSD timings [0, 50, 100, 150, 200 day-degrees (d°C, base temperature 3°C) after first emergence from undisturbed soil]. Analytical units in this study were emergence flushes. Flush magnitudes (maximum weekly emergence per count flush) and flush frequencies (flushes year 1) were compared between disturbed and undisturbed seedbanks. One year after burial, SSD promoted seedling emergence relative to undisturbed seedbanks by increasing flush magnitude rather than increasing flush frequency. Two years after burial, SSD promoted emergence through increased flush magnitude and flush frequency. The promotional effects of SSD on emergence were strongest within 500 d°C following SSD; however, low levels of SSDinduced emergence were detected as late as 3000 d°C following SSD. Accordingly, stale seedbed practices that eliminate weed seedlings should occur within 500 d°C of disturbance, because few seedlings emerge after this time. However, implementation of stale seedbed practices will probably cause slight increases in weed population densities throughout the year. Compared with the common population, local populations exhibited reduced variance in total emergence measured within sites and across SSD treatments, suggesting that C. album adaptation to local pedo-climatic conditions involves increased consistency in SSD-induced emergence.

Sequential hydrocarbon biodegradation of a soil from arid coastal Australia oil-treated under laboratory controlled conditions

A general consistency in the sequential order of petroleum hydrocarbon reduction in previous biodegradation studies has led to the proposal of several molecularly based biodegradation scales. Few studies have investigated the biodegradation susceptibility of petroleum hydrocarbon products in soil media, however, and metabolic preferences can change with habitat type. A laboratory based study comprising gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) analysis of extracts of oil-treated soil samples incubated for up to 161 days was conducted to investigate the biodegradation of crude oil exposed to sandy soils of Barrow Island, home to both a Class ‘‘A” nature reserve and Australia’s largest on-shore oil field. Biodegradation trends of the hydrocarbon-treated soils were largely consistent with previous reports but some unusual behaviour was recognised both between and within hydrocarbon classes. For example, the n-alkanes persisted at trace levels from day 86 to 161 following the removal of typically more stable dimethyl naphthalenes and methyl phenanthrenes. The relative susceptibility to biodegradation of different di- tri- and tetramethylnaphthalene isomers also showed several features distinct from previous reports. The unique biodegradation behaviour of Barrow Is. soil likely reflects difference in microbial functioning with physiochemical variation in the environment. Correlation of molecular parameters, reduction rates of selected alkyl naphthalene isomers and CO2 respiration values with a delayed (61 d) oil-treated soil identified a slowing of biodegradation with microcosm incubation; a reduced function or population of incubated soil flora might also influence the biodegradation patterns observed.

Ratings of age of acquisition of 299 words across 25 languages: is there a cross-linguistic order of words?

We present a new set of subjective age-of-acquisition (AoA) ratings for 299 words (158 nouns, 141 verbs) in 25 languages from five language families (Afro-Asiatic: Semitic languages; Altaic: one Turkic language: Indo-European: Baltic, Celtic, Germanic, Hellenic, Slavic, and Romance languages; Niger-Congo: one Bantu language; Uralic: Finnic and Ugric languages). Adult native speakers reported the age at which they had learned each word. We present a comparison of the AoA ratings across all languages by contrasting them in pairs. This comparison shows a consistency in the orders of ratings across the 25 languages. The data were then analyzed (1) to ascertain how the demographic characteristics of the participants influenced AoA estimations and (2) to assess differences caused by the exact form of the target question (when did you learn vs. when do children learn this word); (3) to compare the ratings obtained in our study to those of previous studies; and (4) to assess the validity of our study by comparison with quasi-objective AoA norms derived from the MacArthur–Bates Communicative Development Inventories (MB-CDI). All 299 words were judged as being acquired early (mostly before the age of 6 years). AoA ratings were associated with the raters’ social or language status, but not with the raters’ age or education. Parents reported words as being learned earlier, and bilinguals reported learning them later. Estimations of the age at which children learn the words revealed significantly lower ratings of AoA. Finally, comparisons with previous AoA and MB-CDI norms support the validity of the present estimations. Our AoA ratings are available for research or other purposes.

Comprometimento organizacional: uma construção a partir da autenticidade do líder e do contexto psicológico

Buscar desempenho superior do capital humano é fator chave para as organizações exercerem maior competitividade e atingir níveis superiores ao da concorrência. Para este intento, conquistar o maior comprometimento dos trabalhadores é fundamental para aumentar o desempenho individual e, se destaca como a principal via para construção de vantagem competitiva duradoura nas organizações onde, ao líder, é delegado o papel de motivador. Estudos recentes desvendam uma nova abordagem para compreender o impacto da liderança sobre os subordinados. A autenticidade. O líder autêntico tem por mérito gerar auto-eficiência em seus liderados, é através do respeito com que trata seus subordinados, demonstra elevada consistência em seus atos, avalia os pontos de vista de seus comandados, provê retorno sobre desempenho e possue valores que o levam a ser justo, tendo ainda, a capacidade de extrair de seus liderados esforço adicional. Portanto, quanto mais “autêntica como pessoa”, mais poderá impactar diretamente na eficácia de seus seguidores. Mas, este estudo revelou que há um componente de mediação entre o líder autêntico e o maior comprometimento organizacional. O contrato psicológico. Em sua dimensão relacional, principalmente, que trata de lealdade e estabilidade, o contrato psicológico se destacou por mediar a relação entre a autenticidade do líder e o maior comprometimento da equipe, ou seja, a autenticidade do líder molda a forma como o indivíduo se vincula à organização, sendo assim uma descoberta relevante a qual nos auxilia a compreender quais são os verdadeiros fatores que influenciam no maior comprometimento e, conseqüente, aumento no desempenho dos trabalhadores.

Atividade antiplasmódica e toxicológica de plantas medicinais usadas popularmente no Brasil : uma abordagem etnobotânica

Malaria is a disease of global distribution, recognized by governments around the world as a serious public health problem, affecting more than 109 countries and territories and endangering more than 3.3 billion people. The economic costs of this disease are also relevant: the African continent itself has malaria-related costs of about $ 12 billion annually. Nowadays, in addition to chloroquine, Plasmodium falciparum is resistant to many drugs used in the treatment of malaria, such as amodiaquine, mefloquine, quinine and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine; resistance of Plasmodium vivax to treatments, although less studied, is also reported. Nature, in general, is responsible for the production of most known organic substances, and the plant kingdom is responsible for the most of the chemical diversity known and reported in the literature. Most medicinal plants commercialized in Brazil, however, are of exotic origin, which makes the search for endemic medicinal plants, besides a patent necessity, a fascinating subject of academic research and development. This study aimed to: (i) verify the antimalarial activity of ethanolic and hydroalcoholic extracts of Boerhavia paniculata Rich. And acetonic extract of Clethra scabra Pers. in Swiss albino mice infected by Plasmodium berghei NK65, (ii) observe possible combined effects between the course of infection by P. berghei NK65 and administration of these extracts in Swiss albino mice, and (iii) conduct a preliminary study of the acute toxicity of these extracts in Swiss albino mice. All extracts notable pharmacological activities - with parasite infections inhibitions ranging from 22% to 54%.These characteristics suggest that the activities are relevant, although comparatively lower than the activity displayed by the positive control group (always above 90%). The general framework of survival analysis demonstrates an overall reduction in survival times for all groups. Necroscopy has not pointed no change in color, shape, size and/or consistency in the evaluated organs - the only exception was the livers of rats submitted to treatment to hydroalcoholic extracts: these organs have been presented in a slightly congestive aspect with mass increasing roughly 28% higher than the other two groups and a p-value of 0.0365. The 250 mg/Kg ethanolic group has been pointed out by the Dunn s post test, as the only class with simultaneous inequalities (p<0.05) between positive and negative control groups. The extracts, notably ethanol extract, have, in fact, a vestigial antimalarial activity, although well below from the ones perceived to chloroquine-treated groups; nevertheless, the survival times of the animals fed with the extracts do not rise by presence of such therapy. Both the toxicopharmacological studies of the synergism between the clinical course of malaria and administration of extracts and the isolated evaluation of toxicity allow us to affirm the absence of toxicity of the extracts at the level of CNS and ANS, as well as their non-influence on food and water consumption patterns, until dosages of 500 mg/Kg. Necroscopic analysis leads us to deduct a possible hepatotoxic effect of hydroalcoholic extract at dosages of 500 mg/Kg, and an innocuous tissue activity of the ethanol extract, in the same dosage. We propose a continuation of the studies of these extracts, with protocol modifications capable of addressing more clearly and objectively their pharmacological and toxicological aspects

Estimadores do tipo núcleo para Variávei s I.I.D. com espaço de estados geral

In this work, the paper of Campos and Dorea [3] was detailed. In that article a Kernel Estimator was applied to a sequence of random variables with general state space, which were independent and identicaly distributed. In chapter 2, the estimator´s properties such as asymptotic unbiasedness, consistency in quadratic mean, strong consistency and asymptotic normality were verified. In chapter 3, using R software, numerical experiments were developed in order to give a visual idea of the estimate process

Validade e confiabilidade da versão informatizada do inventário Million de estilos de personalidade

Currently, several psychological and non-psychological tests can be found in publishes without standardization on procedures set in different psychological areas, like intelligence, emotional states, attitudes, social skills, vocation, preferences and others. The computerized psychological testing is a extension of traditional testing psychological practices. However, it has own psychometrics qualities, either by its matching in a computerized environment or by the extension that can be developed in it. The current research, developed from a necessity to study process of validity and reliability on a computerized test, drew a methodological structure to provide parallel applications in numerous kinds of operational groups, evaluating the influences of the time and approach in the computerization process. This validity refers to normative values groups, reproducibility in computerized applications process and data processing. Not every psychological test can be computerized. Therefore, our need to find a good test, with quality and plausible properties to transform in computerized application, leaded us to use The Millon Personality Inventory, created by Theodore Millon. This Inventory assesses personality according to 12 bipolarities distributed in 24 factors, distributed in categories motivational styles, cognitive targets and interpersonal relations. This instrument doesn t diagnose pathological features, but test normal and non adaptive aspects in human personality, comparing with Theodore Millon theory of personality. In oder to support this research in a Brazilian context in psychological testing, we discuss the theme, evaluating the advantages and disadvantages of such practices. Also we discuss the current forms in computerization of psychological testing and the main specific criteria in this psychometric specialized area of knowledge. The test was on-line, hosted in the site http://www.planetapsi.com, during the years of 2007 and 2008, which was available a questionnaire to describe social characteristics before test. A report was generated from the data entry of each user. An application of this test was conducted in a linear way through a national coverage in all Brazil regions, getting 1508 applications. Were organized nine groups, reaching 180 applications in test and retest subject, where three periods of time and three forms of retests for studies of on-line tests were separated. Parallel to this, we organized multi-application session offline group, 20 subjects who received tests by email. The subjects of this study were generally distributed by the five Brazilian regions, and were noticed about the test via the Internet. The performance application in traditional and on-line tested groups subsidies us to conclude that on-line application provides significantly consistency in all criteria for validity studied and justifies its use. The on-line test results were related not only among themselves but were similar to those data of tests done on pencil and paper (0,82). The retests results demonstrated correlation, between 0,92 and, 1 while multisessions had a good correlation in these comparisons. Moreover, were assessed the adequacy of operational criteria used, such as security, the performance of users, the environmental characteristics, the organization of the database, operational costs and limitations in this on-line inventory. In all these five items, there were excellent performances, concluding, also, that it s possible a self-applied psychometric test. The results of this work are a guide to question and establish of methodologies studies for computerization psychological testing software in the country

O ensino de procedimentos de política de indexação na perspectiva do conhecimento organizacional: uma proposta de programa para a educação à distância do bibliotecário

A política de indexação deve ser constituída de estratégias que permitam o alcance dos objetivos de recuperação do sistema de informação. O indexador tem a função primordial de compreender o documento ao realizar uma análise conceitual que represente adequadamente seu conteúdo. Utilizando a leitura como evento social/protocolo verbal em grupo, nosso objetivo é contribuir com a literatura sobre política de indexação e apresentar propostas de ensino de política de indexação direcionadas a alunos de graduação e pós-graduação, além de uma experiência de educação à distância com vistas à formação do bibliotecário em serviço. Os resultados obtidos demonstraram que a metodologia pode ser utilizada por sistemas de informação para que se tenha acesso ao conhecimento do indexador. Conclui que o indexador deve ser o alvo de investimento dos sistemas de informação e sugere aos sistemas de informação que a experiência do indexador também seja utilizada como parâmetro para política de indexação.

Utilizando Pesos estáticos e dinâmicos em sistemas multi-classificadores com diferentes níveis de diversidade

Although some individual techniques of supervised Machine Learning (ML), also known as classifiers, or algorithms of classification, to supply solutions that, most of the time, are considered efficient, have experimental results gotten with the use of large sets of pattern and/or that they have a expressive amount of irrelevant data or incomplete characteristic, that show a decrease in the efficiency of the precision of these techniques. In other words, such techniques can t do an recognition of patterns of an efficient form in complex problems. With the intention to get better performance and efficiency of these ML techniques, were thought about the idea to using some types of LM algorithms work jointly, thus origin to the term Multi-Classifier System (MCS). The MCS s presents, as component, different of LM algorithms, called of base classifiers, and realized a combination of results gotten for these algorithms to reach the final result. So that the MCS has a better performance that the base classifiers, the results gotten for each base classifier must present an certain diversity, in other words, a difference between the results gotten for each classifier that compose the system. It can be said that it does not make signification to have MCS s whose base classifiers have identical answers to the sames patterns. Although the MCS s present better results that the individually systems, has always the search to improve the results gotten for this type of system. Aim at this improvement and a better consistency in the results, as well as a larger diversity of the classifiers of a MCS, comes being recently searched methodologies that present as characteristic the use of weights, or confidence values. These weights can describe the importance that certain classifier supplied when associating with each pattern to a determined class. These weights still are used, in associate with the exits of the classifiers, during the process of recognition (use) of the MCS s. Exist different ways of calculating these weights and can be divided in two categories: the static weights and the dynamic weights. The first category of weights is characterizes for not having the modification of its values during the classification process, different it occurs with the second category, where the values suffers modifications during the classification process. In this work an analysis will be made to verify if the use of the weights, statics as much as dynamics, they can increase the perfomance of the MCS s in comparison with the individually systems. Moreover, will be made an analysis in the diversity gotten for the MCS s, for this mode verify if it has some relation between the use of the weights in the MCS s with different levels of diversity

Avaliação de impacto ambiental e gestão dos recursos natuarias no estuário Apodi Mossoró, nordeste do Brasil

The aim of this study is to investigate the eco-environmental vulnerability, its changes, and its causes to develop a management system for application of eco-environmental vulnerability and risk assessment in the Apodi-Mossory estuary, Northeast Brazil. This analysis is focused on the interference of the landscape conditions, and its changes, due to the following factors: the oil and natural gas industry, tropical fruits industry, shrimp farms, marine salt industry, occupation of the sensitive areas; demand for land, vegetation degradation, siltation in rivers, severe flooding, sea level rise (SLR), coastal dynamics, low and flat topography, high ecological value and tourism in the region and the rapid growth of urbanization. Conventional and remote sensing data were analyzed using modeling techniques based on ArcGIS, ER-Mapper, ERDAS Imagine and ENVI software. Digital images were initially processed by Principal Component Analysis and transformation of the maximum fraction of noise, and then all bands were normalized to reduce errors caused by bands of different sizes. They were integrated in a Geographic Information System analysis to detect changes, to generate digital elevation models, geomorphic indices and other variables of the study area. A three band color combination of multispectral bands was used to monitor changes of land and vegetation cover from 1986 to 2009. This task also included the analysis of various secondary data, such as field data, socioeconomic data, environmental data and prospects growth. The main objective of this study was to improve our understanding of eco-environmental vulnerability and risk assessment; it´s causes basically show the intensity, its distribution and human-environment effect on the ecosystem, and identify the high and low sensitive areas and area of inundation due to future SLR, and the loss of land due to coastal erosion in the Apodi-Mossoró estuary in order to establish a strategy for sustainable land use. The developed model includes some basic factors such as geology, geomorphology, soils, land use / land cover, vegetation cover, slope, topography and hydrology. The numerical results indicate that 9.86% of total study area was under very high vulnerability, 29.12% high vulnerability, 52.90% moderate vulnerability and 2.23% were in the category of very low vulnerability. The analysis indicates that 216.1 km² and 362.8 km² area flooded on 1m and 10m in sea levels respectively. The sectors most affected were residential, industrial and recreational areas, agricultural land, and ecosystems of high environmental sensitivity. The results showed that changes in eco-environmental vulnerability have a significant impact on the sustainable development of the RN state, since the indicator is a function of sensitivity, exposure and status in relation to a level of damage. The model were presented as a tool to assist in indexing vulnerability in order to optimize actions and assess the implications of decisions makers and policies regarding the management of coastal and estuarine areas. In this context aspects such as population growth, degradation of vegetation, land use / land cover, amount and type of industrialization, SLR and government policies for environmental protection were considered the main factors that affect the eco-environmental changes over the last three decades in the Apodi-Mossoró estuary.