Clinical Coronary In-Stent Restenosis Follow-Up after Treatment and Analyses of Clinical Outcomes

Background: Clinical in-stent restenosis (CISR) is the main limitation of coronary angioplasty with stent implantation. Objective: Describe the clinical and angiographic characteristics of CISR and the outcomes over a minimum follow-up of 12 months after its diagnosis and treatment. Methods: We analyzed in 110 consecutive patients with CISR the clinical presentation, angiographic characteristics, treatment and combined primary outcomes (cardiovascular death, nonfatal acute myocardial infarction [AMI]) and combined secondary (unstable angina with hospitalization, target vessel revascularization and target lesion revascularization) during a minimal follow-up of one year. Results: Mean age was 61 ± 11 years (68.2% males). Clinical presentations included acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in 62.7% and proliferative ISR in 34.5%. CISR was treated with implantation of drug-eluting stents (DES) in 36.4%, Bare Metal Stent (BMS) in 23.6%, myocardial revascularization surgery in 18.2%, balloon angioplasty in 15.5% and clinical treatment in 6.4%. During a median follow-up of 19.7 months, the primary outcome occurred in 18 patients, including 6 (5.5%) deaths and 13 (11.8%) AMI events. Twenty-four patients presented a secondary outcome. Predictors of the primary outcome were CISR with DES (HR = 4.36 [1.44–12.85]; p = 0.009) and clinical treatment for CISR (HR = 10.66 [2.53–44.87]; p = 0.001). Treatment of CISR with BMS (HR = 4.08 [1.75–9.48]; p = 0.001) and clinical therapy (HR = 6.29 [1.35–29.38]; p = 0.019) emerged as predictors of a secondary outcome. Conclusion: Patients with CISR present in most cases with ACS and with a high frequency of adverse events during a medium-term follow-up.

I Brazilian Registry of Heart Failure - Clinical Aspects, Care Quality and Hospitalization Outcomes

Background:Heart failure (HF) is one of the leading causes of hospitalization in adults in Brazil. However, most of the available data is limited to unicenter registries. The BREATHE registry is the first to include a large sample of hospitalized patients with decompensated HF from different regions in Brazil.Objective:Describe the clinical characteristics, treatment and prognosis of hospitalized patients admitted with acute HF.Methods:Observational registry study with longitudinal follow-up. The eligibility criteria included patients older than 18 years with a definitive diagnosis of HF, admitted to public or private hospitals. Assessed outcomes included the causes of decompensation, use of medications, care quality indicators, hemodynamic profile and intrahospital events.Results:A total of 1,263 patients (64±16 years, 60% women) were included from 51 centers from different regions in Brazil. The most common comorbidities were hypertension (70.8%), dyslipidemia (36.7%) and diabetes (34%). Around 40% of the patients had normal left ventricular systolic function and most were admitted with a wet-warm clinical-hemodynamic profile. Vasodilators and intravenous inotropes were used in less than 15% of the studied cohort. Care quality indicators based on hospital discharge recommendations were reached in less than 65% of the patients. Intrahospital mortality affected 12.6% of all patients included.Conclusion:The BREATHE study demonstrated the high intrahospital mortality of patients admitted with acute HF in Brazil, in addition to the low rate of prescription of drugs based on evidence.

Maternal Factors and Adverse Perinatal Outcomes in Women with Preeclampsia in Maceió, Alagoas

Abstract Background: Preeclampsia has been associated with several risk factors and events. However, it still deserves further investigation, considering the multitude of related factors that affect different populations. Objective: To evaluate the maternal factors and adverse perinatal outcomes in a cohort of pregnant women with preeclampsia receiving care in the public health network of the city of Maceió. Methods: Prospective cohort study carried out in 2014 in the public health network of the city with a sample of pregnant women calculated based on a prevalence of preeclampsia of 17%, confidence level of 90%, power of 80%, and ratio of 1:1. We applied a questionnaire to collect socioeconomic, personal, and anthropometric data, and retrieved perinatal variables from medical records and certificates of live birth. The analysis was performed with Poisson regression and chi-square test considering p values < 0.05 as significant. Results: We evaluated 90 pregnant women with preeclampsia (PWP) and 90 pregnant women without preeclampsia (PWoP). A previous history of preeclampsia (prevalence ratio [PR] = 1.57, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.47 - 1.67, p = 0.000) and black skin color (PR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.00 - 1.33, p = 0.040) were associated with the occurrence of preeclampsia. Among the newborns of PWP and PWoP, respectively, 12.5% and 13.1% (p = 0.907) were small for gestational age and 25.0% and 23.2% (p = 0.994) were large for gestational age. There was a predominance of cesarean delivery. Conclusion: Personal history of preeclampsia and black skin color were associated with the occurrence of preeclampsia. There was a high frequency of birth weight deviations and cesarean deliveries.

Transition modes and institutional outcomes in El Salvador and Guatemala

Institutions affect key dimensions of the political process –policy, stability, and conflict. The choice of institutions is thus consequential. I argue that transition modes affect the choice of institutions in predictable and systematic ways. The more balanced power is between the two main bargaining forces –regime elite and opposition– the likelier that the resulting institutions will be pluralistic. Contrarily, the more unbalanced power is in favour of regime elites vis a vis the opposition, the likelier that institutions will be majoritarian. The argument is tested for El Salvador and Guatemala.

A proposal for a new specification for a conditionally heteroskedastic variance model: the Quadratic Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity and an application to the D. Mark-U.S. dollar Exchange Rate

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model [Engle(1982a)], an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged [i.e. Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH; Nelson's (1990) EGARCH]. This recent domain has achieved very successful developments. Nevertheless, several empirical studies seem to show that the performance of such models is not always appropriate [Boulier(1992)]. In this paper we propose a new specification: the Quadratic Moving Average Conditional heteroskedasticity model. Its statistical properties, such as the kurtosis and the symmetry, as well as two estimators (Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood) are studied. Two statistical tests are presented, the first one tests for homoskedasticity and the second one, discriminates between ARCH and QMACH specification. A Monte Carlo study is presented in order to illustrate some of the theoretical results. An empirical study is undertaken for the DM-US exchange rate.

Bidding for the surplus: realizing efficient outcomes in general economic environments

In this paper, we consider two classes of economic environments. In the first type, agents are faced with the task of providing local public goods that will benefit some or all of them. In the second type, economic activity takes place via formation of links. Agents need both to both form a network and decide how to share the output generated. For both scenarios, we suggest a bidding mechanism whereby agents bid for the right to decide upon the organization of the economic activity. The subgame perfect equilibria of this game generate efficient outcomes.

Learning from Shocks and the Decision to Open

Two claims pervade the literature on the political economy of market reforms: that economic crises cause reforms; and that crises matter because they bring into question the validity of the economic model held to be responsible for them. Economic crises are said to spur a process of learning that is conducive to the abandonment of failing models and to the adoption of successful models. But although these claims have become the conventional wisdom, they have been hardly tested empirically due to the lack of agreement on what constitutes a crisis and to difficulties in measuring learning from them. I propose a model of rational learning from experience and apply it to the decision to open the economy. Using data from 1964 through 1990, I show that learning from the 1982 debt crisis was relevant to the first wave of adoption of an export promotion strategy, but learning was conditional on the high variability of economic outcomes in countries that opened up to trade. Learning was also symbolic in that the sheer number of other countries that liberalized was a more important driver of others’ decisions to follow suit.

Freedom of choice as control over outcomes

As interactions between individuals are introduced into the freedom of choice literature by the mean of game forms, new issues appear. In particular, in this paper it is argued that individuals face uncertainty with respect to outcomes as they lose the control they implicitely exert over options in the opportunity set framework. A criterion is proposed as to compare alternative game forms in terms of the control they offer to individuals. The CardMin criterion suggests that any game form should be judged on the basis of the strategy offering the lowest number of pairwise different outcomes. An axiomatic characterization is provided in the case of two individuals.

Notch1 and T-cell development: insights from conditional knockout mice.

Notch proteins influence cell-fate decisions in many developmental systems. Gain-of-function studies have suggested a crucial role for Notch1 signaling at several stages during lymphocyte development, including the B/T, alphabeta/gammadelta and CD4/CD8 lineage choices. Here, we critically re-evaluate these conclusions in the light of recent studies that describe inducible and tissue-specific targeting of the Notch1 gene.

Co-movements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and time-series varying conditional correlations

This paper provides evidence on the sources of co-movement in monthly US and UK stock price movements by investigating the role of macroeconomic and financial variables in a bivariate system with time-varying conditional correlations. Crosscountry communality in response is uncovered, with changes in the US Federal Funds rate, UK bond yields and oil prices having similar negative effects in both markets. Other variables also play a role, especially for the UK market. These effects do not, however, explain the marked increase in cross-market correlations observed from around 2000, which we attribute to time variation in the correlations of shocks to these markets. A regime-switching smooth transition model captures this time variation well and shows the correlations increase dramatically around 1999-2000. JEL classifications: C32, C51, G15 Keywords: international stock returns, DCC-GARCH model, smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH model, model evaluation.

Appropriateness criteria for surgery improve clinical outcomes in patients with low back pain and/or sciatica.

STUDY DESIGN: Prospective, controlled, observational outcome study using clinical, radiographic, and patient/physician-based questionnaire data, with patient outcomes at 12 months follow-up. OBJECTIVE: To validate appropriateness criteria for low back surgery. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Most surgical treatment failures are attributed to poor patient selection, but no widely accepted consensus exists on detailed indications for appropriate surgery. METHODS: Appropriateness criteria for low back surgery have been developed by a multispecialty panel using the RAND appropriateness method. Based on panel criteria, a prospective study compared outcomes of patients appropriately and inappropriately treated at a single institution with 12 months follow-up assessment. Included were patients with low back pain and/or sciatica referred to the neurosurgical department. Information about symptoms, neurologic signs, the health-related quality of life (SF-36), disability status (Roland-Morris), and pain intensity (VAS) was assessed at baseline, at 6 months, and at 12 months follow-up. The appropriateness criteria were administered prospectively to each clinical situation and outside of the clinical setting, with the surgeon and patients blinded to the results of the panel decision. The patients were further stratified into 2 groups: appropriate treatment group (ATG) and inappropriate treatment group (ITG). RESULTS: Overall, 398 patients completed all forms at 12 months. Treatment was considered appropriate for 365 participants and inappropriate for 33 participants. The mean improvement in the SF-36 physical component score at 12 months was significantly higher in the ATG (mean: 12.3 points) than in the ITG (mean: 6.8 points) (P = 0.01), as well as the mean improvement in the SF-36 mental component score (ATG mean: 5.0 points; ITG mean: -0.5 points) (P = 0.02). Improvement was also significantly higher in the ATG for the mean VAS back pain (ATG mean: 2.3 points; ITG mean: 0.8 points; P = 0.02) and Roland-Morris disability score (ATG mean: 7.7 points; ITG mean: 4.2 points; P = 0.004). The ATG also had a higher improvement in mean VAS for sciatica (4.0 points) than the ITG (2.8 points), but the difference was not significant (P = 0.08). The SF-36 General Health score declined in both groups after 12 months, however, the decline was worse in the ITG (mean decline: 8.2 points) than in the ATG (mean decline: 1.2 points) (P = 0.04). Overall, in comparison to ITG patients, ATG patients had significantly higher improvement at 12 months, both statistically and clinically. CONCLUSION: In comparison to previously reported literature, our study is the first to assess the utility of appropriateness criteria for low back surgery at 1-year follow-up with multiple outcome dimensions. Our results confirm the hypothesis that application of appropriateness criteria can significantly improve patient outcomes.

Impact of low-level viremia on clinical and virological outcomes in treated HIV-1-infected patients.

BACKGROUND: The goal of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is to reduce HIV-related morbidity and mortality by suppressing HIV replication. The prognostic value of persistent low-level viremia (LLV), particularly for clinical outcomes, is unknown. OBJECTIVE: Assess the association of different levels of LLV with virological failure, AIDS event, and death among HIV-infected patients receiving combination ART. METHODS: We analyzed data from 18 cohorts in Europe and North America, contributing to the ART Cohort Collaboration. Eligible patients achieved viral load below 50 copies/ml within 3-9 months after ART initiation. LLV50-199 was defined as two consecutive viral loads between 50 and 199 copies/ml and LLV200-499 as two consecutive viral loads between 50 and 499 copies/ml, with at least one between 200 and 499 copies/ml. We used Cox models to estimate the association of LLV with virological failure (two consecutive viral loads at least 500 copies/ml or one viral load at least 500 copies/ml, followed by a modification of ART) and AIDS event/death. RESULTS: Among 17 902 patients, 624 (3.5%) experienced LLV50-199 and 482 (2.7%) LLV200-499. Median follow-up was 2.3 and 3.1 years for virological and clinical outcomes, respectively. There were 1903 virological failure, 532 AIDS events and 480 deaths. LLV200-499 was strongly associated with virological failure [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 3.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.05-5.17]. LLV50-199 was weakly associated with virological failure (aHR 1.38, 95% CI 0.96-2.00). LLV50-199 and LLV200-499 were not associated with AIDS event/death (aHR 1.19, 95% CI 0.78-1.82; and aHR 1.11, 95% CI 0.72-1.71, respectively). CONCLUSION: LLV200-499 was strongly associated with virological failure, but not with AIDS event/death. Our results support the US guidelines, which define virological failure as a confirmed viral load above 200 copies/ml.

Can a Lucas model with habit generate realistic conditional volatility in exchange rate returns?

In this paper, we attempt to give a theoretical underpinning to the well established empirical stylized fact that asset returns in general and the spot FOREX returns in particular display predictable volatility characteristics. Adopting Moore and Roche s habit persistence version of Lucas model we nd that both the innovation in the spot FOREX return and the FOREX return itself follow "ARCH" style processes. Using the impulse response functions (IRFs) we show that the baseline simulated FOREX series has "ARCH" properties in the quarterly frequency that match well the "ARCH" properties of the empirical monthly estimations in that when we scale the x-axis to synchronize the monthly and quarterly responses we find similar impulse responses to one unit shock in variance. The IRFs for the ARCH processes we estimate "look the same" with an approximately monotonic decreasing fashion. The Lucas two-country monetary model with habit can generate realistic conditional volatility in spot FOREX return.

Measuring Avoidable Health Inequality with Realization of Conditional Potential Life Years (RCPLY)

In a series of papers (Tang, Chin and Rao, 2008; and Tang, Petrie and Rao 2006 & 2007), we have tried to improve on a mortality-based health status indicator, namely age-at-death (AAD), and its associated health inequality indicators that measure the distribution of AAD. The main contribution of these papers is to propose a frontier method to separate avoidable and unavoidable mortality risks. This has facilitated the development of a new indicator of health status, namely the Realization of Potential Life Years (RePLY). The RePLY measure is based on the concept of a “frontier country” that, by construction, has the lowest mortality risks for each age-sex group amongst all countries. The mortality rates of the frontier country are used as a proxy for the unavoidable mortality rates, and the residual between the observed mortality rates and the unavoidable mortality rates are considered as avoidable morality rates. In this approach, however, countries at different levels of development are benchmarked against the same frontier country without considering their heterogeneity. The main objective of the current paper is to control for national resources in estimating (conditional) unavoidable and avoidable mortality risks for individual countries. This allows us to construct a new indicator of health status – Realization of Conditional Potential Life Years (RCPLY). The paper presents empirical results from a dataset of life tables for 167 countries from the year 2000, compiled and updated by the World Health Organization. Measures of national average health status and health inequality based on RePLY and RCPLY are presented and compared.