Can prospect theory explain risk-seeking behavior by terminally ill patients?

Patients with life-threatening conditions sometimes appear to make risky treatment decisions as their condition declines, contradicting the risk-averse behavior predicted by expected utility theory. Prospect theory accommodates such decisions by describing how individuals evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point and how they exhibit risk-seeking behavior over losses relative to that point. The authors show that a patient's reference point for his or her health is a key factor in determining which treatment option the patient selects, and they examine under what circumstances the more risky option is selected. The authors argue that patients' reference points may take time to adjust following a change in diagnosis, with implications for predicting under what circumstances a patient may select experimental or conventional therapies or select no treatment.

Crafting analytical tools to study institutional change

Most powerful analytical tools used in the social sciences are well suited for studying static situations. Static and mechanistic analysis, however, is not adequate to understand the changing world in which we live. In order to adequately address the most pressing social and environmental challenges looming ahead, we need to develop analytical tools for analyzing dynamic situations -particularly institutional change. In this paper, we develop an analytical tool to study institutional change, more specifically, the evolution of rules and norms. We believe that in order for such an analytical tool to be useful to develop a general theory of institutional change, it needs to enable the analyst to concisely record the processes of change in multiple specific settings so that lessons from such settings can eventually be integrated into a more general predictive theory of change. Copyright © The JOIE Foundation 2010.

Institutional change and coproduction of public services: The effect of charter schools on parental involvement

Recent discussions of school choice have revived arguments that the decentralization of governing institutions can enhance the quality of public services by increasing the participation of intended beneficiaries in the production of those services. We use data from the Schools and Staffing Survey to examine the extent to which the decentralization of authority to charter schools induces parents to become more involved in their children's schools. We find that parents are indeed more involved in charter schools than in observationally similar public schools, especially in urban elementary and middle schools. Although we find that this difference is partly attributable to measurable institutional and organizational factors, we also find that charter schools tend to be established in areas with above-average proportions of involved parents, and we find suggestive evidence that, within those areas, it is the more involved parents who tend to select into charter schools. Thus, while the institutional characteristics of charter schools do appear to induce parents to become more involved in their children's schools, such characteristics are only part of the explanation for the greater parental involvement in charter schools than in traditional public schools. © The Author 2005. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Questions of 'h' in Northern Ireland: Breathing New Life on the Aspiration Theory

This paper considers existing ideas concerning pronunciation of the letter name for (LNH) in Northern Irish English (NIE). Traditionally, the status of LNH realisation as an ethnic marker has gone unquestioned: Catholics are thought to say [het&Mac186;] while the Protestant norm is assumed to be [etS]. The phonetic difference between these realisations is consistently described as word-initial aspiration versus non-aspiration, with aspiration attributed exclusively to Irish language influence. Here, we show that an explanation based on aspiration alone is phonologically unsatisfying and question whether aspiration is, in fact, an Irish language or ethnically dictated phenomenon. It is further suggested here that the overwhelming stigmatisation of LNH realisation may be responsible for blocking a potential sound change in NIE. While this paper is not intended as a detailed account of ethnolinguistic differences in NI phonology, it engages critically with the over-simplistic and widespread notion that LNH realisation is a result of transfer from the Irish language to the English used by Catholics in Northern Ireland.

Linguistics and Information Theory: Analytic advantages

The analytic advantages of central concepts from linguistics and information theory, and the analogies demonstrated between them, for understanding patterns of retrieval from full-text indexes to documents are developed. The interaction between the syntagm and the paradigm in computational operations on written language in indexing, searching, and retrieval is used to account for transformations of the signified or meaning between documents and their representation and between queries and documents retrieved. Characteristics of the message, and messages for selection for written language, are brought to explain the relative frequency of occurrence of words and multiple word sequences in documents. The examples given in the companion article are revisited and a fuller example introduced. The signified of the sequence stood for, the term classically used in the definitions of the sign, as something standing for something else, can itself change rapidly according to its syntagm. A greater than ordinary discourse understanding of patterns in retrieval is obtained.

Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings

Abstract In theory, improvements in healthy life expectancy should generate increases in the average age of retirement, with little effect on savings rates. In many countries, however, retirement incentives in social security programs prevent retirement ages from keeping pace with changes in life expectancy, leading to an increased need for life-cycle savings. Analyzing a cross-country panel of macroeconomic data, we find that increased longevity raises aggregate savings rates in countries with universal pension coverage and retirement incentives, though the effect disappears in countries with pay-as-you-go systems and high replacement rates.

Semiclassical treatment of Wannier's theory when the exponent diverges

We consider a non-standard application of the Wannier model. A physical example is the single ionization of a hydrogenic beryllium ion with a fully stripped beryllium ion, where the ratio of the charge of the third particle to the charges of the escaping particles is 1/4; we investigate the single ionization by an electron of an atom comprising an electron and a nucleus of charge 1/4. An infinite exponent is obtained suggesting that this process is not tractable within the Wannier model. A modified version of Crothers' uniform semiclassical wavefunction for the outgoing particles has been adopted, since the Wannier exponents and are infinite for an effective charge of Z = 1/4. We use Bessel functions to describe the Peterkop functions u and u and derive a new turning point ?. Since u is well behaved at infinity, there exists only the singularity in u at infinity, thus we employ a one- (rather than two-) dimensional change of dependent variable, ensuring that a uniform solution is obtained that avoids semiclassical breakdown on the Wannier ridge. The regularized final-state asymptotic wavefunction is employed, along with a continuum-distorted-wave approximation for the initial-state wavefunction to obtain total cross sections on an absolute scale. © 2006 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Retrospective assessment of dryland soil stability in relation to grazing and climate change

Accelerated soil erosion is an aspect of dryland degradation that is affected by repeated intense drought events and land management activities such as commercial livestock grazing. A soil stability index (SSI) that detects the erosion status and susceptibility of a landscape at the pixel level, i.e., stable, erosional, or depositional pixels, was derived from the spectral properties of an archived time series (from 1972 to 1997) of Landsat satellite data of a commercial ranch in northeastern Utah. The SSI was retrospectively validated with contemporary field measures of soil organic matter and erosion status that was surveyed by US federal land management agencies. Catastrophe theory provided the conceptual framework for retrospective assessment of the impact of commercial grazing and soil water availability on the SSI. The overall SSI trend was from an eroding landscape in the early drier 1970s towards stable conditions in the wetter mid-1980s and late 1990s. The landscape catastrophically shifted towards an extreme eroding state that was coincident with the “The Great North American Drought of 1988”. Periods of landscape stability and trajectories toward stability were coincident with extremely wet El Niño events. Commercial grazing had less correlation with soil stability than drought conditions. However, the landscape became more susceptible to erosion events under multiple droughts and grazing. Land managers now have nearly a year warning of El Niño and La Niña events and can adjust their management decisions according to predicted landscape erosion conditions.

Resolution of an ancient surface science anomaly: Work function change induced by N adsorption on W{100}

For many decades it has been assumed that an adsorbate centered above a metal surface and with a net negative charge should increase the work function of the surface. However, despite their electronegativity, N adatoms on W{100} cause a significant work function decrease. Here we present a resolution of this anomaly. Using density functional theory, we demonstrate that while the N atom carries a negative charge, of overriding importance is a reduction in the surface overspill electron density into the vacuum, when that charge is engaged in bonding to the adatom. This novel interpretation is fundamentally important in the general understanding of work function changes induced by atomic adsorbates.

A density functional theory study of the surface relaxation and reactivity of Cu2O(100)

Density functional theory has been used to investigate the surface relaxation of Cu2O(100) and the adsorption of NO. The calculations indicate the formation of surface copper dimers on relaxation coupled with a large contraction of the spacing between the first and second layers. Local density of states for atoms in the top three layers shows that the third layer copper atoms have the greatest change in bonding character. Adsorption energies have been calculated for the N-down and O-down adsorption of NO on the Cu2O(100) surface. These indicate that N-down adsorption is favoured and that in this case NO-lattice oxygen interactions dominate the adsorbate structure. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Entrepreneurial and Business Growth and the Quest for a “Comprehensive Theory”: Tilting at Windmills?

Even though there has been sustained interest in growth for almost 50 years, relatively little is known about this phenomenon and much confusion and misunderstanding surrounds it. Based on a literature review and the articles in this special issue we make three recommendations that we believe will allow theory to advance and be applicable in practice. First, that discourse between key stakeholders is encouraged in order to achieve greater understanding. Second, that focus is placed on " growth as a process," rather than as a " change in amount." Third, that knowledge production requires inclusivity and pluralism in research perspectives and approaches. © 2010 Baylor University.

The Decline of the Cow: Agricultural and Settlement Change in Early Medieval Ireland

This article considers cows and dairying as the basis a17of value system in early societies, particularly in Ireland. Only in a very few instances is it possible to demonstrate that such systems existed. When it does, it can be shown that cows and dairying were imbedded in the social or religious institutions of these cultures. Cattle had a value and meaning much greater than their economic worth in terms of food, hides, tallow etc. Such a systems, however, does not allow economic development as dairy produce does not easily lend itself to the production, and accumulation, of significant surplus nor is dairy produce particularly suitable for economic expansion based on trade. Its perishable nature militates against both roles. In order to develop political power that is based on economic power and wealth it is necessary to change the emphasis from livestock to cereal production.

Accounting change: Explaining the outcomes, interpreting the process

Purpose: The issue of accounting change, why and how accounting evolves through time and within specific organisational settings, has been addressed by an important body of literature. This paper aims to explain why, in processes of accounting change, organisations confronting similar environmental pressures show different outcomes of change.

Design/methodology/approach: Drawing on archetype theory, the paper analyses the case of two Italian local governments. Comparative case studies were carried out, reconstructing a period of 15 years.

Findings: Although confronted with similar environmental pressures, the two cases show two different patterns of accounting change, where only one case is able to finally reach radical change. Accounting change can be prompted by external stimuli, but, once the change is prompted, the outcomes of the change are explained by the dynamics of intra-organisational conditions.

Originality/value: The study contributes to accounting change literature by adopting an approach (i.e. archetype theory) that overcomes some of the limitations of previous studies in explaining variations in organisational change. Through this, the authors are able to explain different outcomes and paces of accounting change and point out the intra-organisational factors also affecting them in the presence of similar environmental pressures. A specification of the theoretical framework in a particular setting is also provided.

Bridging Jeffrey's Rule, AGM Revision and Dempster Conditioning in the Theory of Evidence

Belief revision characterizes the process of revising an agent’s beliefs when receiving new evidence. In the field of artificial intelligence, revision strategies have been extensively studied in the context of logic-based formalisms and probability kinematics. However, so far there is not much literature on this topic in evidence theory. In contrast, combination rules proposed so far in the theory of evidence, especially Dempster rule, are symmetric. They rely on a basic assumption, that is, pieces of evidence being combined are considered to be on a par, i.e. play the same role. When one source of evidence is less reliable than another, it is possible to discount it and then a symmetric combination operation
is still used. In the case of revision, the idea is to let prior knowledge of an agent be altered by some input information. The change problem is thus intrinsically asymmetric. Assuming the input information is reliable, it should be retained whilst the prior information should be changed minimally to that effect. To deal with this issue, this paper defines the notion of revision for the theory of evidence in such a way as to bring together probabilistic and logical views. Several revision rules previously proposed are reviewed and we advocate one of them as better corresponding to the idea of revision. It is extended to cope with inconsistency between prior and input information. It reduces to Dempster
rule of combination, just like revision in the sense of Alchourron, Gardenfors, and Makinson (AGM) reduces to expansion, when the input is strongly consistent with the prior belief function. Properties of this revision rule are also investigated and it is shown to generalize Jeffrey’s rule of updating, Dempster rule of conditioning and a form of AGM revision.

Determination of the Tolman length in the improved Derjaguin-Broekhoff-de Boer theory for capillary condensation of ethanol in mesoporous thin films by ellipsometric porosimetry

Ethanol adsorption-desorption isotherms on well-organized mesoporous silica and titania films with hexagonal pores structure were studied by ellipsometric porosimetry. The mesopore volume Was calculated from the change of the effective refractive index at the end points of the isotherm. An improved Derjaguin-Broekhoff-de Boer (IDBdB) model for cylindrical pores is proposed for the determination of the pore size. In this model, the disjoining pressure isotherms were obtained by measuring the thickness of the ethanol film on a non-porous film with the same chemical composition. This approach eliminates uncertainties related to the application of the statistical film thickness determined via t-plots in previous versions of the DBdB model. The deviation in the surface tension of ethanol in the mesopores from that of a flat interface was described by the Tolman parameter in the Gibbs-Tolman-Koening-Buff equation. A positive value of the Tolman parameter of 0.2 nm was found from the fitting of the desorption branch of the isotherms to the experimental data obtained by Low Angle X-ray Diffraction (LA-XRD) and Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) measurements in the range of pore diameters between 2.1 and 8.3 nm. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.