Three essays on trade and investment

From H. G. Johnson's work (Review of Economic Studies, 1953–54) on tariff retaliation, the questions of whether a country can win a “tariff war” and how or even the broader question of what will affect a country's strategic position in setting bilateral tariff have been tackled in various situations. Although it is widely accepted that a country will have strategic advantages in winning the tariff war if its relative monopoly power is sufficiently large, it is unclear what are the forces behind such power formation. The goal of this research is to provide a unified framework and discuss various forces such as relative country size, absolute advantages and relative advantages simultaneously. In a two-country continuum-of-commodity neoclassical trade model, it is shown that sufficiently large relative country size is a sufficient condition for a country to choose a non-cooperative tariff Nash equilibrium over free trade. It is also shown that technology disparities such as absolute advantage, rate of technology disparity and the distribution of the technology disparity all contribute to a country's strategic position and interact with country size. ^ Leverage effect is usually used to explain the phenomenon of asymmetric volatility in equity returns. However, leverage itself can only account for parts of the asymmetry. In this research, it is shown that stock return volatility is related to firms’ financial status. Financially constrained firms tend to be more sensitive to the return changes. Financial constraint factor explains why some firms tend to be more volatile than others. I found that the financial constraint factor explains the stock return volatility independent of other factors such as firm size, industry affiliation and leverage. Firms’ industry affiliations are shown to be very weak in differentiating volatility. Firm size is proven to be a good factor in distinguishing the different levels of volatility and volatility-return sensitivity. Leverage hypothesis is also partly corroborated and the situation where leverage effect is not applicable is discussed. Finally, I examined the macroeconomic policy's effects on overall market volatility. ^

Three essays on market depth in futures markets

Liquidity is an important market characteristic for participants in every financial market. One of the three components of liquidity is market depth. Prior literature lacks a comprehensive analysis of depth in U.S. futures markets due to past limitations on the availability of data. However, recent innovations in data collection and dissemination provide new opportunities to investigate the depth dimension of liquidity. In this dissertation, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group proprietary database on depth is employed to study the dynamics of depth in the U.S. futures markets. This database allows for the analysis of depth along the entire limit order book rather than just at the first level. The first essay examines the characteristics of depth within the context of the five-deep limit order book. Results show that a large amount of depth is present in the book beyond the best level. Furthermore, the findings show that the characteristics of five-deep depth between day and night trading vary and that depth is unequal across levels within the limit order book. The second essay examines the link between the five-deep market depth and the bid-ask spread. The results suggest an inverse relation between the spread and the depth after adjusting for control factors. The third essay explores transitory volatility in relation to depth in the limit order book. Evidence supports the relation between an increase in volatility and a subsequent decrease in market depth. Overall, the results of this dissertation are consistent with limit order traders actively managing depth along the limit order book in electronic U.S. futures markets.

Origin and fate of surface drift in the oceanic convergence zones of the eastern Pacific

This study investigates the structure and intensity of the surface pathways connecting to and from the central areas of the large-scale convergence regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Surface waters are traced with numerical Lagrangian particles transported in the velocity field of three different ocean models with horizontal resolutions that range from ¼° to 1/32°. The connections resulting from the large-scale convergent Ekman dynamics agree qualitatively but are strongly modulated by eddy variability that introduces meridional asymmetry in the amplitude of transport. Lagrangian forward-in-time integrations are used to analyze the fate of particles originating from the central regions of the convergence zones and highlight specific outflows not yet reported for the southeastern Pacific when using the currents at the highest resolutions (1/12° and 1/32°). The meridional scales of these outflows are comparable to the characteristic width of the fine-scale striation of mean currents.

Distal limb osteoarthritis in the horse

The aim of this thesis was to study two objective methods of osteoarthritis (OA) diagnosis in horses and use them on the assessment of new intra-articular treatments. The studied methods were a new inertial-sensor based system of lameness detection and cartilage biomarkers in serum. It was found that distal limb flexion is significantly correlated to the presence of metacarpo-phalangeal OA in hind limbs and that inertial-sensors are sensitive in detecting asymmetry in these cases. A positive and significant correlation was observed between Coll2-1 concentration in serum and the presence of joint disease in males and young horses. Fib3-2 measurement has good potential to be used since it is not influenced by sex or age. Using an experimental model of OA, adipose stem cells pre-activated with interferon-gamma decreased joint inflammation and radiographic lesions. In clinical cases, a single injection of high-concentrated and high-molecular weight hyaluronic-acid decreased joint inflammation and biomarkers’ concentration; OSTEOARTRITE DO MEMBRO DISTAL NO CAVALO Resumo: A finalidade desta tese foi estudar dois métodos de diagnóstico objetivo de osteoartrite (OA) em equinos e aplicá-los na avaliação de novas terapias intra-articulares. Utilizou-se um sistema de sensores de movimento e foi avaliada a concentração de biomarcadores de cartilagem no soro. Concluiu-se que a flexão distal positiva está correlacionada com OA na articulação metacarpofalângica nos membros posteriores e que os sensores são sensíveis na detecção de assimetria nestes casos. Existe uma correlação positiva e significativa entre as concentrações de Coll2-1 e a presença de doença articular, sobretudo em machos e jovens. A dosagem de Fib3-2 tem utilidade por não ser influenciada pelo sexo nem idade. Num modelo experimental da doença, a terapia à base de células estaminais reduziu a inflamação articular e as lesões radiográficas. Em casos clínicos, o tratamento com ácido-hialurónico de alta concentração e peso molecular provoca uma diminuição da inflamação articular e dos biomarcadores no soro.

Three Essays on Market Depth in Futures Markets

Liquidity is an important market characteristic for participants in every financial market. One of the three components of liquidity is market depth. Prior literature lacks a comprehensive analysis of depth in U.S. futures markets due to past limitations on the availability of data. However, recent innovations in data collection and dissemination provide new opportunities to investigate the depth dimension of liquidity. In this dissertation, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group proprietary database on depth is employed to study the dynamics of depth in the U.S. futures markets. This database allows for the analysis of depth along the entire limit order book rather than just at the first level. The first essay examines the characteristics of depth within the context of the five-deep limit order book. Results show that a large amount of depth is present in the book beyond the best level. Furthermore, the findings show that the characteristics of five-deep depth between day and night trading vary and that depth is unequal across levels within the limit order book. The second essay examines the link between the five-deep market depth and the bid-ask spread. The results suggest an inverse relation between the spread and the depth after adjusting for control factors. The third essay explores transitory volatility in relation to depth in the limit order book. Evidence supports the relation between an increase in volatility and a subsequent decrease in market depth. Overall, the results of this dissertation are consistent with limit order traders actively managing depth along the limit order book in electronic U.S. futures markets.

Mapping and modulating spatial attention asymmetries in young and older adults

Healthy young adults demonstrate a group-level, systematic preference for stimuli presented in the left side of space relative to the right (‘pseudoneglect’) (Bowers & Heilman, 1980). This results in an overestimation of features such as size, brightness, numerosity and spatial frequency in the left hemispace, probably as a result of right cerebral hemisphere dominance for visuospatial attention. This spatial attention asymmetry is reduced in the healthy older population, and can be shifted entirely into right hemispace under certain conditions. Although this rightward shift has been consistently documented in behavioural experiments, there is very little neuroimaging evidence to explain this effect at a neuroanatomical level. In this thesis, I used behavioural methodology and electroencephalography (EEG) to map spatial attention asymmetries in young and older adults. I then use transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) to modulate these spatial biases, with the aim of assessing age-related differences in response to tDCS. In the first of three experiments presented in this thesis, I report in Chapter Two that five different spatial attention tasks provide consistent intra-task measures of spatial bias in young adults across two testing days. There were, however, no inter-task correlations between the five tasks, indicating that pseudoneglect is at least partially driven by task-dependent patterns of neural activity. In Chapter Three, anodal tDCS was applied separately to the left (P5) and right (P6) posterior parietal cortex (PPC) in young and older adults, with an aim to improve the detection of stimuli appearing in the contralateral visual field. There were no age differences in response to tDCS, but there were significant differences depending on baseline performance. Relative to a sham tDCS protocol, tDCS applied to the right PPC resulted in maintained visual detection across both visual fields in adults who were good at the task at baseline. In contrast, left PPC tDCS resulted in reduced detection sensitivity across both visual fields in poor performers. Finally, in Chapter Four, I report a right-hemisphere lateralisation of EEG activity in young adults that was present for long (but not short) landmark task lines. In contrast, older adults demonstrated no lateralised activity for either line length, thus providing novel evidence of an age-related reduction of hemispheric asymmetry in older adults. The results of this thesis provide evidence of a highly complex set of factors that underlie spatial attention asymmetries in healthy young and older adults.

Urban-rural connections and development perspectives in Portugal

Portugal is characterized by a significant asymmetry in the population distribution/density and economic activity as well as in social and cultural dynamics. This means very diverse landscapes, differences in regional development, sustainability and quality of life, mainly between urban and rural areas. A consequence coherent with the contemporary dynamics: urbanization of many rural areas that loose their productive-agricultural identity and, simultaneously, the reintegration in urban areas of spaces and activities with more rural characteristics. In this process of increasing complexity of organization of the landscape is essential to restore the continuum naturale (between urban and rural areas) allowing closer links to both ways of life. A strategy supported in the landscape, which plays important functions for public interest, in the cultural, social, ecological and environmental fields. At the same time, constitutes an important resource for economic activity, as underlined in the European Landscape Convention. Based on this assumption, and using a multi-method approach, the study aims to analyse a) the links between urban and rural areas in Portugal and b) the reasons why these territories are chosen by individuals as places of work and mobility, residence or evasion, culture and leisure, tranquillity or excitement – meaning overall well-being. Primary information was obtained by a questionnaire survey applied to a convenience sample of the Portuguese population. Secondary data and information will be collected on the official Portuguese Statistics (INE and PORDATA). Understanding the urban-rural links is essential to support policy measures, take advantage from the global changes and challenge many of the existing myths.

Essays in Financial Econometrics

The first paper sheds light on the informational content of high frequency data and daily data. I assess the economic value of the two family models comparing their performance in forecasting asset volatility through the Value at Risk metric. In running the comparison this paper introduces two key assumptions: jumps in prices and leverage effect in volatility dynamics. Findings suggest that high frequency data models do not exhibit a superior performance over daily data models. In the second paper, building on Majewski et al. (2015), I propose an affine-discrete time model, labeled VARG-J, which is characterized by a multifactor volatility specification. In the VARG-J model volatility experiences periods of extreme movements through a jump factor modeled as an Autoregressive Gamma Zero process. The estimation under historical measure is done by quasi-maximum likelihood and the Extended Kalman Filter. This strategy allows to filter out both volatility factors introducing a measurement equation that relates the Realized Volatility to latent volatility. The risk premia parameters are calibrated using call options written on S&P500 Index. The results clearly illustrate the important contribution of the jump factor in the pricing performance of options and the economic significance of the volatility jump risk premia. In the third paper, I analyze whether there is empirical evidence of contagion at the bank level, measuring the direction and the size of contagion transmission between European markets. In order to understand and quantify the contagion transmission on banking market, I estimate the econometric model by Aït-Sahalia et al. (2015) in which contagion is defined as the within and between countries transmission of shocks and asset returns are directly modeled as a Hawkes jump diffusion process. The empirical analysis indicates that there is a clear evidence of contagion from Greece to European countries as well as self-contagion in all countries.

New strongly coupled sector at the Tevatron and the LHC

We examine the possibility that a new strong interaction is accessible to the Tevatron and the LHC. In an effective theory approach, we consider a scenario with a new color-octet interaction with strong couplings to the top quark, as well as the presence of a strongly coupled fourth generation which could be responsible for electroweak symmetry breaking. We apply several constraints, including the ones from flavor physics. We study the phenomenology of the resulting parameter space at the Tevatron, focusing on the forward-backward asymmetry in top pair production, as well as in the production of the fourth-generation quarks. We show that if the excess in the top production asymmetry is indeed the result of this new interaction, the Tevatron could see the first hints of the strongly coupled fourth-generation quarks. Finally, we show that the LHC with root s = 7 TeV and 1 fb(-1) integrated luminosity should observe the production of fourth-generation quarks at a level at least 1 order of magnitude above the QCD prediction for the production of these states.

Description of a new species of Asymmetrione (Isopoda: Bopyridae: Pseudioninae) infesting the hermit crab Paguristes tomentosus (Anomura: Diogenidae) from Peru, with a key to species and a review of southeastern Pacific bopyrids

A new species of bopyrid isopod is described from a host hermit crab Paguristes tomentosus collected from Pisco, Peru and assigned to the pseudionine isopod genus Asymmetrione Codreanu, Codreanu and Pike, 1965. This is the second species in the genus with less than 20 asymmetry in females, but agrees with all other species in the genus in having the characteristic ""socket"" on the propodus of the female`s pereopods, and in all characters of the males. A key is provided to the 10 species now in Asymmetrione. New records of an Anathelges sp. from Pagurus villosus collected in central Chile are given but additional material is required to determine whether these specimens represent the eastern Pacific A. thompsoni or the western Atlantic A. hyptius. A review of all the bopyrid species known from the western South American coast, with remarks on their taxonomy and biology, is provided.

Parity measurement of one- and two-electron double well systems

We outline a scheme to accomplish measurements of a solid state double well system (DWS) with both one and two electrons in nonlocalized bases. We show that, for a single particle, measuring the local charge distribution at the midpoint of a DWS using a SET as a sensitive electrometer amounts to performing a projective measurement in the parity (symmetric/antisymmetric) eigenbasis. For two-electrons in a DWS, a similar configuration of SET results in close-to-projective measurement in the singlet/triplet basis. We analyze the sensitivity of the scheme to asymmetry in the SET position for some experimentally relevant parameter, and show that it is experimentally realizable.

Tidal influence on behaviour of a coastal aquifer adjacent to a low-relief estuary

The tidal influence on groundwater hydrodynamics, salt-water intrusion and submarine groundwater discharge from coastal/estuarine aquifers is poorly quantified for systems with a mildly sloping beach, in contrast to the case where a vertical beach face is assumed. We investigated the effect of beach slope for a coastal aquifer adjacent to a low-relief estuary, where industrial waste was emplaced over the aquifer. The waste was suspected to discharge leachate towards the estuary. Field observations at various locations showed that tidally induced groundwater head fluctuations were skewed temporally. Frequency analysis suggested that the fluctuation amplitudes decreased exponentially and the phase-tags increased Linearly for the primary tidal signals as they propagated inland. Salinisation zones were observed in the bottom part of the estuary and near the beach surface. Flow and transport processes in a cross-section perpendicular to the estuary were simulated using SEAWAT-2000, which is capable of depicting density-dependent flow and multi-species transport. The simulations showed that the modelled water table fluctuations were in good agreement with the monitored data. Further simulations were conducted to gain insight into the effects of beach slope. In particular the limiting case of a vertical beach face was considered. The simulations showed that density difference and tidal forcing drive a more complex hydrodynamic pattern for the mildly sloping beach than the vertical beach, as well as a profound asymmetry in tidally induced water table fluctuations and enhanced salt-water intrusion. The simulation results also indicated that contaminant transport from the aquifer to the estuary was affected by the tide, where for the mildly sloping beach, the tide tended to intensify the vertical mass exchange in the vicinity of the shorelines, (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Surface electromyographic assessment of patients with long lasting temporomandibular joint disorder pain

The normalized electromyographic characteristics of masticatory muscles in patients with temporomandibular joint disorders (TMD) and healthy controls were compared. Thirty TMD patients (15 men, 15 women, mean age 23 years) with long lasting pain (more than 6 months), and 20 control subjects matched for sex and age were examined. All patients had arthrogenous TMD according to the Research Diagnostic Criteria for TMD (RDC/TMD). Surface electromyography of masseter and temporal muscles was performed during maximum teeth clenching either on cotton rolls or in intercuspal position. Standardized EMG indices and the median power frequency were obtained, and compared between the two groups and sexes using ANOVAs. During clenching, the TMD patients had larger asymmetry in their temporalis muscles, larger temporalis activity relative to masseter, and reduced mean power frequencies than the control subjects (p < 0.05, ANOVA). In both groups, the mean power frequencies of the temporalis muscles were larger than those of the masseter muscles (p < 0.001). No sex related differences, and no sex x group interactions were found. In conclusion, young adult patients with long lasting TMD have an increased and more asymmetric standardized activity of their temporalis anterior muscle, and reduced mean power frequencies, relative to healthy controls. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uma solução da equação difusão-advecção com o termo contragradiente

Neste trabalho, apresenta­se uma solução para equação de difusão­advecção considerando o  termo  contragradiente  que  é um termo  adicional. Esse termo  adicional  contém informações  sobre a assimetria, escala de tempo Lagrangeana e velocidade turbulenta vertical. A solução  da equação foi obtida pela utilização da técnica de Transformada de Laplace, considerando a  Camada  Limite  Planetária  (CLP)  como  um  sistema  de  multicamadas.  Os  parâmetros  turbulentos foram derivados da teoria de difusão estatística de Taylor, combinada com a teoria  da similaridade. Assim, são apresentadas simulações para diferentes valores de assimetria, o  que  propiciou  a  obtenção  de  uma  concentração  de  contaminantes  em  diferentes  alturas,  em  uma  camada  limite  convectiva.  A  avaliação  do  desempenho  do  modelo,  considerando  a  assimetria  no  processo  de  dispersão  de  poluentes  atmosféricos, foi realizada  através  de  um  experimento  de  tanque  convectivo  tradicional.  Nesse  experimento,  o  termo  contragradiente  influenciou a concentração de poluentes para uma camada limite convectiva. Entretanto, com  as  parametrizações  utilizadas,  o  modelo  não  conseguiu  captar  de  forma  eficiente  o  comportamento da concentração em pontos mais distantes da fonte.

New physics contributions to A(FB)(t(t)over-bar) at the Tevatron

The Tevatron has measured a discrepancy relative to the standard model prediction in the forward-backward asymmetry in top quark pair production. This asymmetry grows with the rapidity difference of the two top quarks. It also increases with the invariant mass of the t (t) over bar pair, reaching, for high invariant masses, 3.4 standard deviations above the next-to-leading order prediction for the charge asymmetry of QCD. However, perfect agreement between experiment and the standard model was found in both total and differential cross section of top quark pair production. As this result could be a sign of new physics we have parametrized this new physics in terms of a complete set of dimension six operators involving the top quark. We have then used a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach in order to find the best set of parameters that fits the data, using all available data regarding top quark pair production at the Tevatron. We have found that just a very small number of operators are able to fit the data better than the standard model.