995 resultados para action prediction


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This study examined the effect that venture creation action has on the outcomes of nascent entrepreneurship. A theoretical model was developed which proposes action as a fundamental mechanism in venture creation. Thus, action should rightly be considered as a means rather than an end in itself. In this respect, action transmits the effects of venture resource endowments on to venture creation outcomes. This conceptual model was empirically supported in a random sample of nascent ventures. Ventures with higher levels of human or social capital tend to be more active in venture creation. In turn, more active venture attempts are more likely to achieve improved results.

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To the action researcher, who laboriously spends his or her hours working within the local contexts of communities or organisations to co-generate meaningful research, and who’s theories are hardened on the anvil of creating meaningful social change; futures studies might seem the discipline the most peripheral to its interests, and the most ill equipped to deal with the local and intimate domain of community existence. To the futurist, who laboriously spends his or her hours understanding the nuances of history and social change, who through persistent work, begins to make sense of the weak signals and the subtle shifts, action research would seem as simply an auxiliary field, inappropriate for understanding the greater scheme. I invite the reader, however, whether they belong to one camp or the other, to let go of their respective disciplinary perspectives, and see both belonging to each other. [Introduction] .

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Action learning / research is a broad field of research with deep roots in the 20th century. Unlike futures studies, which is more content oriented (i.e., the futures of health, peace futures, global futures), action learning / research is process and methodology oriented – addressing the manner in which research is done, rather than what is researched. At its core it is collaborative learning for social change. This is particularly important because, in this age of heterogenous changes and multi-fold social challenges, we need to be able to bridge learning about our futures with action and innovation in the present, in a way that is effective and accessible for lay communities and organisations, not just experts. [Introduction]

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This paper explores the cultural interplay between Indigenous women from one geographic locality being on and within the locality of the women of another locality – in this case, Whakatāne, Aotearoa. The authors consider identity, gender and place within the processes of transformation and decolonisation. They argue that women need to be involved in ways that restore their power as women and ensure their rightful place. The authors draw on the female ancestor Wairaka and her courage to argue that Indigenous women need to respond, change and adapt to the places in which they live. They argue that decolonisation needs to include action and possibilities for Māori and Indigenous Australian women.

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Background: Integrating 3D virtual world technologies into educational subjects continues to draw the attention of educators and researchers alike. The focus of this study is the use of a virtual world, Second Life, in higher education teaching. In particular, it explores the potential of using a virtual world experience as a learning component situated within a curriculum delivered predominantly through face-to-face teaching methods. Purpose: This paper reports on a research study into the development of a virtual world learning experience designed for marketing students taking a Digital Promotions course. The experience was a field trip into Second Life to allow students to investigate how business branding practices were used for product promotion in this virtual world environment. The paper discusses the issues involved in developing and refining the virtual course component over four semesters. Methods: The study used a pedagogical action research approach, with iterative cycles of development, intervention and evaluation over four semesters. The data analysed were quantitative and qualitative student feedback collected after each field trip as well as lecturer reflections on each cycle. Sample: Small-scale convenience samples of second- and third-year students studying in a Bachelor of Business degree, majoring in marketing, taking the Digital Promotions subject at a metropolitan university in Queensland, Australia participated in the study. The samples included students who had and had not experienced the field trip. The numbers of students taking part in the field trip ranged from 22 to 48 across the four semesters. Findings and Implications: The findings from the four iterations of the action research plan helped identify key considerations for incorporating technologies into learning environments. Feedback and reflections from the students and lecturer suggested that an innovative learning opportunity had been developed. However, pedagogical potential was limited, in part, by technological difficulties and by student perceptions of relevance.

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The 31st TTRA conference was held in California’s San Fernando Valley, home of Hollywood and Burbank’s movie and television studios. The twin themes of Hollywood and the new Millennium promised and delivered “something old, yet something new”. The meeting offered a historical summary, not only of the year in review but also of many features of travel research since the first literature in the field appeared in the 1970s. Also, the millennium theme set the scene for some stimulating and forward thinking discussions. The Hollywood location offered an opportunity to ponder on the value of the movie-induced tourism for Los Angeles, at a time when Hollywood Boulevard was in the midst of a much needed redevelopment programme. Hollywood Chamber of Commerce speaker Oscar Arslanian acknowledged that the face of the famous district had become tired, and that its ability to continue to attract visitors in the future lay in redeveloping its past heritage. In line with the Hollywood theme a feature of the conference was a series of six special sessions with “Stars of Travel Research”. These sessions featured: Clare Gunn, Stanley Plog, Charles Gouldner, John Hunt, Brent Ritchie, Geoffrey Crouch, Peter Williams, Douglas Frechtling, Turgut Var, Robert Christie-Mill, and John Crotts. Delegates were indeed privileged to hear from many of the pioneers of tourism research. Clare Gunn, Charles Goeldner, Turgut Var and Stanley Plog, for example, traced the history of different aspects of the tourism literature, and in line with the millennium theme, offered some thought provoking discussion on the future challenges facing tourism. These included; the commodotisation of airlines and destinations, airport and traffic congestion, environment sustainability responsibility and the looming burst of the baby-boomer bubble. Included in the conference proceedings are four papers presented by five of the “Stars”. Brent Ritchie and Geoffrey Crouch discuss the critical success factors for destinations, Clare Gunn shares his concerns about tourism being a smokestack industry, Doug Frechtling provides forecasts of outbound travel from 20 countries, and Charles Gouldner, who has attended all 31 TTRA conferences, reflects on the changes that have taken place in tourism research over 35 years...

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Accurate reliability prediction for large-scale, long lived engineering is a crucial foundation for effective asset risk management and optimal maintenance decision making. However, a lack of failure data for assets that fail infrequently, and changing operational conditions over long periods of time, make accurate reliability prediction for such assets very challenging. To address this issue, we present a Bayesian-Marko best approach to reliability prediction using prior knowledge and condition monitoring data. In this approach, the Bayesian theory is used to incorporate prior information about failure probabilities and current information about asset health to make statistical inferences, while Markov chains are used to update and predict the health of assets based on condition monitoring data. The prior information can be supplied by domain experts, extracted from previous comparable cases or derived from basic engineering principles. Our approach differs from existing hybrid Bayesian models which are normally used to update the parameter estimation of a given distribution such as the Weibull-Bayesian distribution or the transition probabilities of a Markov chain. Instead, our new approach can be used to update predictions of failure probabilities when failure data are sparse or nonexistent, as is often the case for large-scale long-lived engineering assets.

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Focusing on the role within and between organizations of the project management discipline to design and implement strategy, as source of competitive advantage, leads us to question the scientific field behind this discipline. This science should be the basis for the development and use of bodies of knowledge, standards, certification programs, education, and competencies, and beyond this as a source of value for people, organizations, and society. Thus the importance to characterize, define, and understand this field and its underlying strength, basis, and development is paramount. For this purpose we propose to give some insights on the current situation. This will lead us to clarify our epistemological position and demonstrate that both constructivism and positivist approaches are required to seize the full dimension and dynamics of the field.We will referee to sociology of actor-networks and qualitative scientometrics leading to the choice of the co-word analysis method in enabling us to capture the project management field and its dynamics.Results of a study based on the analysis of ABI Inform database will be presented and some future trends and scenarios proposed.

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Traffic generated semi and non volatile organic compounds (SVOCs and NVOCs) pose a serious threat to human and ecosystem health when washed off into receiving water bodies by stormwater. Climate change influenced rainfall characteristics makes the estimation of these pollutants in stormwater quite complex. The research study discussed in the paper developed a prediction framework for such pollutants under the dynamic influence of climate change on rainfall characteristics. It was established through principal component analysis (PCA) that the intensity and durations of low to moderate rain events induced by climate change mainly affect the wash-off of SVOCs and NVOCs from urban roads. The study outcomes were able to overcome the limitations of stringent laboratory preparation of calibration matrices by extracting uncorrelated underlying factors in the data matrices through systematic application of PCA and factor analysis (FA). Based on the initial findings from PCA and FA, the framework incorporated orthogonal rotatable central composite experimental design to set up calibration matrices and partial least square regression to identify significant variables in predicting the target SVOCs and NVOCs in four particulate fractions ranging from >300-1 μm and one dissolved fraction of <1 μm. For the particulate fractions range >300-1 μm, similar distributions of predicted and observed concentrations of the target compounds from minimum to 75th percentile were achieved. The inter-event coefficient of variations for particulate fractions of >300-1 μm were 5% to 25%. The limited solubility of the target compounds in stormwater restricted the predictive capacity of the proposed method for the dissolved fraction of <1 μm.

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Nurses play a pivotal role in responding to the changing needs of community health care. Therefore, nursing education must be relevant, responsive, and evidence based. We report a case study of curriculum development in a community nursing unit embedded within an undergraduate nursing degree. We used action research to develop, deliver, evaluate, and redesign the curriculum. Feedback was obtained through self-reflection, expert opinion from community stakeholders, formal student evaluation, and critical review. Changes made, especially in curriculum delivery, led to improved learner focus and more clearly linked theory and practice. The redesigned unit improved performance, measured with the university's student evaluation of feedback instrument (increased from 0.3 to 0.5 points below to 0.1 to 0.5 points above faculty mean in all domains), and was well received by teaching staff. The process confirmed that improved pedagogy can increase student engagement with content and perception of a unit as relevant to future practice.

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This report summarises the participatory action research (PAR) undertaken by the Brisbane North and West (BNW) Youth Connections Consortium service during 2010 and 2011. The objective of the service, which is funded by the Australian Government Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEEWR), is to re-engage young people who have disengaged from education and are at risk of not achieving Year 12 attainment.The PAR element is facilitated by Queensland University of Technology, School of Public Health and Social Work (QUT). The PAR identifies key elements of the model of service as well as provides summary narratives of the PAR inquiries undertaken by Youth Connections staff and their co-participants during this period.

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This paper presents the benefits and issues related to travel time prediction on urban network. Travel time information quantifies congestion and is perhaps the most important network performance measure. Travel time prediction has been an active area of research for the last five decades. The activities related to ITS have increased the attention of researchers for better and accurate real-time prediction of travel time. Majority of the literature on travel time prediction is applicable to freeways where, under non-incident conditions, traffic flow is not affected by external factors such as traffic control signals and opposing traffic flows. On urban environment the problem is more complicated due to conflicting areas (intersections), mid-link sources and sinks etc. and needs to be addressed.

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For the further noise reduction in the future, the traffic management which controls traffic flow and physical distribution is important. To conduct the measure by the traffic management effectively, it is necessary to apply the model for predicting the traffic flow in the citywide road network. For this purpose, the existing model named AVENUE was used as a macro-traffic flow prediction model. The traffic flow model was integrated with the road vehicles' sound power model, and the new road traffic noise prediction model was established. By using this prediction model, the noise map of entire city can be made. In this study, first, the change of traffic flow on the road network after the establishment of new roads was estimated, and the change of the road traffic noise caused by the new roads was predicted. As a result, it has been found that this prediction model has the ability to estimate the change of noise map by the traffic management. In addition, the macro-traffic flow model and our conventional micro-traffic flow model were combined, and the coverage of the noise prediction model was expanded.

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Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) has recently conducted a technology demonstration of a novel fixed wireless broadband access system in rural Australia. The system is based on multi user multiple-input multiple-output orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MU-MIMO-OFDM). It demonstrated an uplink of six simultaneous users with distances ranging from 10 m to 8.5 km from a central tower, achieving 20 bits s/Hz spectrum efficiency. This paper reports on the analysis of channel capacity and bit error probability simulation based on the measured MUMIMO-OFDM channels obtained during the demonstration, and their comparison with the results based on channels simulated by a novel geometric optics based channel model suitable for MU-MIMO OFDM in rural areas. Despite its simplicity, the model was found to predict channel capacity and bit error rate probability accurately for a typical MU-MIMO-OFDM deployment scenario.