Search space pruning and global optimisation of Multiple Gravity Assist spacecraft trajectories

We introduce and describe the Multiple Gravity Assist problem, a global optimisation problem that is of great interest in the design of spacecraft and their trajectories. We discuss its formalization and we show, in one particular problem instance, the performance of selected state of the art heuristic global optimisation algorithms. A deterministic search space pruning algorithm is then developed and its polynomial time and space complexity derived. The algorithm is shown to achieve search space reductions of greater than six orders of magnitude, thus reducing significantly the complexity of the subsequent optimisation.

The indirect global warming potential and global temperature change potential due to methane oxidation

Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere next to carbon dioxide. Its global warming potential (GWP) for a time horizon of 100 years is 25, which makes it an attractive target for climate mitigation policies. Although the methane GWP traditionally includes the methane indirect effects on the concentrations of ozone and stratospheric water vapour, it does not take into account the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation. We argue here that this CO2-induced effect should be included for fossil sources of methane, which results in slightly larger GWP values for all time horizons. If the global temperature change potential is used as an alternative climate metric, then the impact of the CO2-induced effect is proportionally much larger. We also discuss what the correction term should be for methane from anthropogenic biogenic sources.

Infrared absorption spectra, radiative efficiencies, and global warming potentials of perfluorocarbons: Comparison between experiment and theory

Experimentally and theoretically determined infrared spectra are reported for a series of straight-chain perfluorocarbons: C2F6, C3F8, C4F10, C5F12, C6F14, and C8F18. Theoretical spectra were determined using both density functional (DFT) and ab initio methods. Radiative efficiencies (REs) were determined using the method of Pinnock et al. (1995) and combined with atmospheric lifetimes from the literature to determine global warming potentials (GWPs). Theoretically determined absorption cross sections were within 10% of experimentally determined values. Despite being much less computationally expensive, DFT calculations were generally found to perform better than ab initio methods. There is a strong wavenumber dependence of radiative forcing in the region of the fundamental C-F vibration, and small differences in wavelength between band positions determined by theory and experiment have a significant impact on the REs. We apply an empirical correction to the theoretical spectra and then test this correction on a number of branched chain and cyclic perfluoroalkanes. We then compute absorption cross sections, REs, and GWPs for an additional set of perfluoroalkenes.

Radiative efficiencies and global warming potentials using theoretically determined absorption cross-sections for several hydrofluoroethers (HFEs) and hydrofluoropolyethers (HFPEs)

Integrated infrared cross-sections and wavenumber positions for the vibrational modes of a range of hydrofluoroethers (HFEs) and hydrofluoropolyethers (HFPEs) have been calculated. Spectra were determined using a density functional method with an empirically derived correction for the wavenumbers of band positions. Radiative efficiencies (REs) were determined using the Pinnock et al. method and were used with atmospheric lifetimes from the literature to determine global warming potentials (GWPs). For the HFEs and the majority of the molecules in the HG series HFPEs, theoretically determined absorption cross-sections and REs lie within ca. 10% of those determined using measured spectra. For the larger molecules in the HG series and the HG′ series of HFPEs, agreement is less good, with theoretical values for the integrated cross-sections being up to 35% higher than the experimental values; REs are up to 45% higher. Our method gives better results than previous theoretical approaches, because of the level of theory chosen and, for REs, because an empirical wavenumber correction derived for perfluorocarbons is effective in predicting the positions of C–F stretching frequencies at around 1250 cm−1 for the molecules considered here.

Spin-up and adjustment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and global pycnocline

A theory is presented for the adjustment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and global pycnocline to a sudden and sustained change in wind forcing. The adjustment timescale is controlled by the mesoscale eddy diffusivity across the ACC, the mean width of the ACC, the surface area of the ocean basins to the north, and deep water formation in the North Atlantic. In particular, northern sinking may have the potential to shorten the timescale and reduce its sensitivity to Southern Ocean eddies, but the relative importance of northern sinking and Southern Ocean eddies cannot be determined precisely, largely due to limitations in the parameterization of northern sinking. Although it is clear that the main processes that control the adjustment timescale are those which counteract the deepening of the global pycnocline, the theory also suggests that the timescale can be subtly modified by wind forcing over the ACC and global diapycnal mixing. Results from calculations with a reduced-gravity model compare well with the theory. The multidecadal-centennial adjustment timescale implies that long observational time series will be required to detect dynamic change in the ACC due to anthropogenic forcing. The potential role of Southern Ocean mesoscale eddy activity in determining both the equilibrium state of the ACC and the timescale over which it adjusts suggests that the response to anthropogenic forcing may be different in coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models that parameterize and resolve mesoscale eddies.