Teoria de carteiras e a alocação de parques eólicos offshore

The consumption of energy on the planet is currently based on fossil fuels. They are responsible for adverse effects on the environment. Renewables propose solutions for this scenario, but must face issues related to the capacity of the power supply. Wind energy offshore emerging as a promising alternative. The speed and stability are greater winds over oceans, but the variability of these may cause inconvenience to the generation of electric power fluctuations. To reduce this, a combination of wind farms geographically distributed was proposed. The greater the distance between them, the lower the correlation between the wind velocity, increasing the likelihood that together achieve more stable power system with less fluctuations in power generation. The efficient use of production capacity of the wind park however, depends on their distribution in marine environments. The objective of this research was to analyze the optimal allocation of wind farms offshore on the east coast of the U.S. by Modern Portfolio Theory. The Modern Portfolio Theory was used so that the process of building portfolios of wind energy offshore contemplate the particularity of intermittency of wind, through calculations of return and risk of the production of wind farms. The research was conducted with 25.934 observations of energy produced by wind farms 11 hypothetical offshore, from the installation of 01 simulated ocean turbine with a capacity of 5 MW. The data show hourly time resolution and covers the period between January 1, 1998 until December 31, 2002. Through the Matlab R software, six were calculated minimum variance portfolios, each for a period of time distinct. Given the inequality of the variability of wind over time, set up four strategies rebalancing to evaluate the performance of the related portfolios, which enabled us to identify the most beneficial to the stability of the wind energy production offshore. The results showed that the production of wind energy for 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 should be considered by the portfolio weights calculated for the same periods, respectively. Energy data for 2002 should use the weights derived from the portfolio calculated in the previous time period. Finally, the production of wind energy in the period 1998-2002 should also be weighted by 1/11. It follows therefore that the portfolios found failed to show reduced levels of variability when compared to the individual production of wind farms hypothetical offshore

Explaining dinophysis cf. acuminata abundance in Antifer (Normandy, France) using dynamic linear regression

Classical regression analysis can be used to model time series. However, the assumption that model parameters are constant over time is not necessarily adapted to the data. In phytoplankton ecology, the relevance of time-varying parameter values has been shown using a dynamic linear regression model (DLRM). DLRMs, belonging to the class of Bayesian dynamic models, assume the existence of a non-observable time series of model parameters, which are estimated on-line, i.e. after each observation. The aim of this paper was to show how DLRM results could be used to explain variation of a time series of phytoplankton abundance. We applied DLRM to daily concentrations of Dinophysis cf. acuminata, determined in Antifer harbour (French coast of the English Channel), along with physical and chemical covariates (e.g. wind velocity, nutrient concentrations). A single model was built using 1989 and 1990 data, and then applied separately to each year. Equivalent static regression models were investigated for the purpose of comparison. Results showed that most of the Dinophysis cf. acuminata concentration variability was explained by the configuration of the sampling site, the wind regime and tide residual flow. Moreover, the relationships of these factors with the concentration of the microalga varied with time, a fact that could not be detected with static regression. Application of dynamic models to phytoplankton time series, especially in a monitoring context, is discussed.

Teoria de carteiras e a alocação de parques eólicos offshore

The consumption of energy on the planet is currently based on fossil fuels. They are responsible for adverse effects on the environment. Renewables propose solutions for this scenario, but must face issues related to the capacity of the power supply. Wind energy offshore emerging as a promising alternative. The speed and stability are greater winds over oceans, but the variability of these may cause inconvenience to the generation of electric power fluctuations. To reduce this, a combination of wind farms geographically distributed was proposed. The greater the distance between them, the lower the correlation between the wind velocity, increasing the likelihood that together achieve more stable power system with less fluctuations in power generation. The efficient use of production capacity of the wind park however, depends on their distribution in marine environments. The objective of this research was to analyze the optimal allocation of wind farms offshore on the east coast of the U.S. by Modern Portfolio Theory. The Modern Portfolio Theory was used so that the process of building portfolios of wind energy offshore contemplate the particularity of intermittency of wind, through calculations of return and risk of the production of wind farms. The research was conducted with 25.934 observations of energy produced by wind farms 11 hypothetical offshore, from the installation of 01 simulated ocean turbine with a capacity of 5 MW. The data show hourly time resolution and covers the period between January 1, 1998 until December 31, 2002. Through the Matlab R software, six were calculated minimum variance portfolios, each for a period of time distinct. Given the inequality of the variability of wind over time, set up four strategies rebalancing to evaluate the performance of the related portfolios, which enabled us to identify the most beneficial to the stability of the wind energy production offshore. The results showed that the production of wind energy for 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 should be considered by the portfolio weights calculated for the same periods, respectively. Energy data for 2002 should use the weights derived from the portfolio calculated in the previous time period. Finally, the production of wind energy in the period 1998-2002 should also be weighted by 1/11. It follows therefore that the portfolios found failed to show reduced levels of variability when compared to the individual production of wind farms hypothetical offshore

Hybrid simulation of ion cyclotron resonance in the solar wind: evolution of velocity distribution functions

Li, Xing; Habbal, S.R., (2005) 'Hybrid simulation of ion cyclotron resonance in the solar wind: evolution of velocity distribution functions', Journal of Geophysical Research 110(A10) pp.A10109 RAE2008

Experimental enquiry concerning the natural powers of wind and water to turn mills and other machines depending on a circular motion. And An experimental examination of the quantity and proportion of mechanic power necessary to be employed in giving different degrees of velocity to heavy bodies from a state of rest. Also New fundamental experiments upon the collision of bodies. With five plates of machines.

Goldsmiths'-Kress no. 16657.1.

Numerical investigation of the influence of topography on simulated downburst wind fields

A, dry, non-hydrostatic sub-cloud model is used to simulate an isolated stationary downburst wind event to study the influence topographic features have on the near-ground wind structure of these storms. It was generally found that storm maximum wind speeds could be increased by up to 30% because of the presence of a topographic feature at the location of maximum wind speeds. Comparing predicted velocity profile amplification with that of a steady flow impinging jet, similar results were found despite the simplifications made in the impinging jet model. Comparison of these amplification profiles with those found in the simulated boundary layer winds reveal reductions of up to 30% in the downburst cases. Downburst and boundary layer amplification profiles were shown to become more similar as the topographic feature height was reduced with respect to the outflow depth.

Influence of tilt and surface roughness on the outflow wind field of an impinging jet

A physical and numerical steady flow impinging jet has been used to simulate the bulk characteristics of a downburst-like wind field. The influence of downdraft tilt and surface roughness on the ensuing wall jet flow has been investigated. It was found that a simulated downdraft impinging the surface at a non-normal angle has the potential for causing larger structural loads than the normal impingement case. It was also found that for the current impinging jet simulations, surface roughness played a minor role in determining the storm maximum wind structure, but this influence increased as the wall jet diverged. However, through comparison with previous research it was found that the influence of surface roughness is Reynolds number dependent and therefore may differ from that reported herein for full-scale downburst cases. Using the current experimental results an empirical model has been developed for laboratory-scale impinging jet velocity structure that includes the influence of both jet tilt and surface roughness.

Numerical simulation of idealised three-dimensional downburst wind fields

Convective downburst wind storms generate the peak annual gust wind speed for many parts of the non-cyclonic world at return periods of importance for ultimate limit state design. Despite this there is little clear understanding of how to appropriately design for these wind events given their significant dissimilarities to boundary layer winds upon which most design is based. To enhance the understanding of wind fields associated with these storms a three-dimensional numerical model was developed to simulate a multitude of idealised downburst scenarios and to investigate their near-ground wind characteristics. Stationary and translating downdraft wind events in still and sheared environments were simulated with baseline results showing good agreement with previous numerical work and full-scale observational data. Significant differences are shown in the normalised peak wind speed velocity profiles depending on the environmental wind conditions in the vicinity of the simulated event. When integrated over the height of mid- to high rise structures, all simulated profiles are shown to produce wind loads smaller than an equivalent 10 m height matched open terrain boundary layer profile. This suggests that for these structures the current design approach is conservative from an ultimate loading standpoint. Investigating the influence of topography on the structure of the simulated near-ground downburst wind fields, it is shown that these features amplify wind speeds in a manner similar to that expected for boundary layer winds, but the extent of amplification is reduced. The level of reduction is shown to be dependent on the depth of the simulated downburst outflow.