Modeling random effect and excess zeros in road traffic accident prediction

Poisson distribution has often been used for count like accident data. Negative Binomial (NB) distribution has been adopted in the count data to take care of the over-dispersion problem. However, Poisson and NB distributions are incapable of taking into account some unobserved heterogeneities due to spatial and temporal effects of accident data. To overcome this problem, Random Effect models have been developed. Again another challenge with existing traffic accident prediction models is the distribution of excess zero accident observations in some accident data. Although Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is capable of handling the dual-state system in accident data with excess zero observations, it does not accommodate the within-location correlation and between-location correlation heterogeneities which are the basic motivations for the need of the Random Effect models. This paper proposes an effective way of fitting ZIP model with location specific random effects and for model calibration and assessment the Bayesian analysis is recommended.

Bayesian hierarchical analysis on crash prediction models

Traditional crash prediction models, such as generalized linear regression models, are incapable of taking into account the multilevel data structure, which extensively exists in crash data. Disregarding the possible within-group correlations can lead to the production of models giving unreliable and biased estimates of unknowns. This study innovatively proposes a -level hierarchy, viz. (Geographic region level – Traffic site level – Traffic crash level – Driver-vehicle unit level – Vehicle-occupant level) Time level, to establish a general form of multilevel data structure in traffic safety analysis. To properly model the potential cross-group heterogeneity due to the multilevel data structure, a framework of Bayesian hierarchical models that explicitly specify multilevel structure and correctly yield parameter estimates is introduced and recommended. The proposed method is illustrated in an individual-severity analysis of intersection crashes using the Singapore crash records. This study proved the importance of accounting for the within-group correlations and demonstrated the flexibilities and effectiveness of the Bayesian hierarchical method in modeling multilevel structure of traffic crash data.

Prediction of pull-out force of multi-walled carbon nanotube (MWCNT) in sword-in-sheath mode

The pull-out force of some outer walls against other inner walls in multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) was systematically studied by molecular mechanics simulations. The obtained results reveal that the pull-out force is proportional to the square of the diameter of the immediate outer wall on the sliding interface, which highlights the primary contribution of the capped section of MWCNT to the pull-out force. A simple empirical formula was proposed based on the numerical results to predict the pull-out force for an arbitrary pull-out in a given MWCNT directly from the diameter of the immediate outer wall on the sliding interface. Moreover, tensile tests for MWCNTs with and without acid-treatment were performed with a nanomanipulator inside a vacuum chamber of a scanning electron microscope (SEM) to validate the present empirical formula. It was found that the theoretical pull-out forces agree with the present and some previous experimental results very well.

Community wide interventions for increasing physical activity

Not having enough physical activity leads to poorer health. Regular physical activity can reduce the risk of chronic disease and improve one's health and well being. The lack of physical activity is a common and growing health problem. To address this, 25 studies have used improvement activities directed at communities using more than one approach in a single program. When we looked at the available research, we observed that there was a lack of good studies which could show whether this approach was or wasn't beneficial. For example, some research studies claimed that community wide programs improved physical activities and other studies did not. It was not possible to determine what might work. Future research is needed with improved designs, measures of outcomes and larger samples of participants.

Transition to intensive care nursing: A state-wide, workplace centred program-12 years on

In November 1999, the Queensland Health (QH) Transition to Practice Nurse Education Program - Intensive Care (TPNEP-IC) was initiated in QH Intensive Care Units (ICUs) across Queensland. This 12-month, state-wide, workplace based education program has set minimum standards for intensive care nursing education and therefore minimum standards for intensive care nursing practice in QH. In the 12 years of operation, 824 nurses have completed TPNEP-IC, 761 achieving academic credit status and 453 utilising this academic credit status to undertake postgraduate study in critical/intensive care nursing at three Queensland universities. These outcomes were achieved through the appointment of nurse educators within ICUs who, through a united and strong commitment to this state-wide approach formed collaborative professional networks, which resulted in the development, implementation and maintenance of the program. Furthermore, these networks enabled a framework of support for discussion and dissemination of evidence based practice, to endorse quality processes for TPNEP-IC and to nurture leadership potential among educators. Challenges to overcome included obtaining adequate resources to support all aspects of the program, gaining local management and administrative support, and embedding TPNEP-IC within ICU culture. The 12 years of operation of the program have demonstrated its long term sustainability. The program is being launched through a new blended learning approach utilising e-learning strategies. To capitalise on the current success, a strong commitment by all stakeholders will be required to ensure the ongoing sustainability of the program.

Integrated health prediction of bridge systems using dynamic object oriented Bayesian networks (DOOBNS)

The serviceability and safety of bridges are crucial to people’s daily lives and to the national economy. Every effort should be taken to make sure that bridges function safely and properly as any damage or fault during the service life can lead to transport paralysis, catastrophic loss of property or even casualties. Nonetheless, aggressive environmental conditions, ever-increasing and changing traffic loads and aging can all contribute to bridge deterioration. With often constrained budget, it is of significance to identify bridges and bridge elements that should be given higher priority for maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement, and to select optimal strategy. Bridge health prediction is an essential underpinning science to bridge maintenance optimization, since the effectiveness of optimal maintenance decision is largely dependent on the forecasting accuracy of bridge health performance. The current approaches for bridge health prediction can be categorised into two groups: condition ratings based and structural reliability based. A comprehensive literature review has revealed the following limitations of the current modelling approaches: (1) it is not evident in literature to date that any integrated approaches exist for modelling both serviceability and safety aspects so that both performance criteria can be evaluated coherently; (2) complex system modelling approaches have not been successfully applied to bridge deterioration modelling though a bridge is a complex system composed of many inter-related bridge elements; (3) multiple bridge deterioration factors, such as deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, observed information, maintenance actions and environmental effects have not been considered jointly; (4) the existing approaches are lacking in Bayesian updating ability to incorporate a variety of event information; (5) the assumption of series and/or parallel relationship for bridge level reliability is always held in all structural reliability estimation of bridge systems. To address the deficiencies listed above, this research proposes three novel models based on the Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Networks (DOOBNs) approach. Model I aims to address bridge deterioration in serviceability using condition ratings as the health index. The bridge deterioration is represented in a hierarchical relationship, in accordance with the physical structure, so that the contribution of each bridge element to bridge deterioration can be tracked. A discrete-time Markov process is employed to model deterioration of bridge elements over time. In Model II, bridge deterioration in terms of safety is addressed. The structural reliability of bridge systems is estimated from bridge elements to the entire bridge. By means of conditional probability tables (CPTs), not only series-parallel relationship but also complex probabilistic relationship in bridge systems can be effectively modelled. The structural reliability of each bridge element is evaluated from its limit state functions, considering the probability distributions of resistance and applied load. Both Models I and II are designed in three steps: modelling consideration, DOOBN development and parameters estimation. Model III integrates Models I and II to address bridge health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects jointly. The modelling of bridge ratings is modified so that every basic modelling unit denotes one physical bridge element. According to the specific materials used, the integration of condition ratings and structural reliability is implemented through critical failure modes. Three case studies have been conducted to validate the proposed models, respectively. Carefully selected data and knowledge from bridge experts, the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) and existing literature were utilised for model validation. In addition, event information was generated using simulation to demonstrate the Bayesian updating ability of the proposed models. The prediction results of condition ratings and structural reliability were presented and interpreted for basic bridge elements and the whole bridge system. The results obtained from Model II were compared with the ones obtained from traditional structural reliability methods. Overall, the prediction results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed modelling approach for bridge health prediction and underpin the assertion that the three models can be used separately or integrated and are more effective than the current bridge deterioration modelling approaches. The primary contribution of this work is to enhance the knowledge in the field of bridge health prediction, where more comprehensive health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects are addressed jointly. The proposed models, characterised by probabilistic representation of bridge deterioration in hierarchical ways, demonstrated the effectiveness and pledge of DOOBNs approach to bridge health management. Additionally, the proposed models have significant potential for bridge maintenance optimization. Working together with advanced monitoring and inspection techniques, and a comprehensive bridge inventory, the proposed models can be used by bridge practitioners to achieve increased serviceability and safety as well as maintenance cost effectiveness.

'It ain't over till it's over' : Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets

The recent expansion of prediction markets provides a great opportunity to test the market efficiency hypothesis and the calibration of trader judgements. Using a large database of observed prices, this article studies the calibration of prediction markets prices on sporting events using both nonparametric and parametric methods. While only minor bias can be observed during most of the lifetime of the contracts, the calibration of prices deteriorates very significantly in the last moments of the contracts’ lives. Traders tend to overestimate the probability of the losing team to reverse the situation in the last minutes of the game.

Wide-field assessment of the human corneal subbasal nerve plexus in diabetic neuropathy using a novel mapping technique

To develop a rapid optimized technique of wide-field imaging of the human corneal subbasal nerve plexus. A dynamic fixation target was developed and, coupled with semiautomated tiling software, a rapid method of capturing and montaging multiple corneal confocal microscopy images was created. To illustrate the utility of this technique, wide-field maps of the subbasal nerve plexus were produced in 2 participants with diabetes, 1 with and 1 without neuropathy. The technique produced montages of the central 3 mm of the subbasal corneal nerve plexus. The maps seem to show a general reduction in the number of nerve fibers and branches in the diabetic participant with neuropathy compared with the individual without neuropathy. This novel technique will allow more routine and widespread use of subbasal nerve plexus mapping in clinical and research situations. The significant reduction in the time to image the corneal subbasal nerve plexus should expedite studies of larger groups of diabetic patients and those with other conditions affecting nerve fibers. The inferior whorl and the surrounding areas may show the greatest loss of nerve fibers in individuals with diabetic neuropathy, but this should be further investigated in a larger cohort.