Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

Model based experimental investigation on Powered Gait Orthosis (PGO)

Research on rehabilitation showed that appropriate and repetitive mechanical movements can help spinal cord injured individuals to restore their functional standing and walking. The objective of this paper was to achieve appropriate and repetitive joint movements and approximately normal gait through the PGO by replicating normal walking, and to minimize the energy consumption for both patients and the device. A model based experimental investigative approach is presented in this dissertation. First, a human model was created in Ideas and human walking was simulated in Adams. The main feature of this model was the foot ground contact model, which had distributed contact points along the foot and varied viscoelasticity. The model was validated by comparison of simulated results of normal walking and measured ones from the literature. It was used to simulate current PGO walking to investigate the real causes of poor function of the current PGO, even though it had joint movements close to normal walking. The direct cause was one leg moving at a time, which resulted in short step length and no clearance after toe off. It can not be solved by simply adding power on both hip joints. In order to find a better answer, a PGO mechanism model was used to investigate different walking mechanisms by locking or releasing some joints. A trade-off between energy consumption, control complexity and standing position was found. Finally a foot release PGO virtual model was created and simulated and only foot release mechanism was developed into a prototype. Both the release mechanism and the design of foot release were validated through the experiment by adding the foot release on the current PGO. This demonstrated an advancement in improving functional aspects of the current PGO even without a whole physical model of foot release PGO for comparison.

Holocene climatic change and the development of the lake-effect snowbelt in Michigan, USA

Lake-effect snow is an important constraint on ecological and socio-economic systems near the North American Great Lakes. Little is known about the Holocene history of lake-effect snowbelts, and it is difficult to decipher how lake-effect snowfall abundance affected ecosystem development. We conducted oxygen-isotope analysis of calcite in lake-sediment cores from northern Lower Michigan to infer Holocene climatic variation and assess snowbelt development. The two lakes experience the same synoptic-scale climatic systems, but only one of them (Huffman Lake) receives a significant amount of lake-effect snow. A 177-cm difference in annual snowfall causes groundwater inflow at Huffman Lake to be 18O-depleted by 2.3‰ relative to O'Brien Lake. To assess when the lake-effect snowbelt became established, we compared calcite-δ18O profiles of the last 11,500 years from these two sites. The chronologies are based on accelerator-mass-spectrometry 14C ages of 11 and 17 terrestrial-plant samples from Huffman and O'Brien lakes, respectively. The values of δ18O are low at both sites from 11,500 to 9500 cal yr BP when the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) exerted a dominant control over the regional climate and provided periodic pulses of meltwater to the Great Lakes basin. Carbonate δ18O increases by 2.6‰ at O'Brien Lake and by 1.4‰ at Huffman Lake between 9500 and 7000 cal yr BP, suggesting a regional decline in the proportion of runoff derived from winter precipitation. The Great Lakes snowbelt probably developed between 9500 and 5500 cal yr BP as inferred from the progressive 18O-depletion at Huffman Lake relative to O'Brien Lake, with the largest increase of lake-effect snow around 7000 cal yr BP. Lake-effect snow became possible at this time because of increasing contact between the Great Lakes and frigid arctic air. These changes resulted from enhanced westerly flow over the Great Lakes as the LIS collapsed, and from rapidly rising Great Lakes levels during the Nipissing Transgression. The δ18O difference between Huffman and O'Brien lakes declines after 5500 cal yr BP, probably because of a northward shift of the polar vortex that brought increasing winter precipitation to the entire region. However, δ18O remains depleted at Huffman Lake relative to O'Brien Lake because of the continued production of lake-effect snow.

The effectiveness of laceback ligatures during initial orthodontic alignment: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Lacebacks may be used to limit unwanted incisor proclination during initial orthodontic alignment; however, their use has not met with universal approval. This systematic review aims to appraise the evidence in relation to the effectiveness of lacebacks in controlling incisor position during initial alignment. Electronic database searches of published literature (MEDLINE via Ovid, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, LILACS, and IBECS) and unpublished literature were performed. Search terms used included randomized controlled trial, controlled clinical trial, random allocation, double blind method, orthodontics, and laceback. Data were extracted using custom forms. Risk of bias assessment was made using the Cochrane Collaboration risk of bias tool. The quality of the evidence was also assessed using GRADE. Mean differences in incisor inclination and antero-posterior changes in incisor and molar position during alignment were calculated. Two studies involving 97 participants were found to be at low risk of bias and were included in the quantitative synthesis. The random effects meta-analysis demonstrated that the use of lacebacks was associated with 0.5 mm greater posterior movement of the incisors during alignment; this finding was of limited clinical importance and statistically non-significant [95 per cent confidence interval (CI): -1.25, 0.25, P = 0.19]. Little difference (0.46 mm) was also found between laceback and non-laceback groups with regards to mesial molar movement (95 per cent CI: -0.33, 1.24, P = 0.26). According to the GRADE assessment, the overall quality of evidence relating to the use of lacebacks was high. There is no evidence to support the use of lacebacks for the control of the sagittal position of the incisors during initial orthodontic alignment.

Is breast cancer risk the same for all progestogens?

The population-based case–control study CECILE investigated the impact of various menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) products on breast cancer (BC) risk in 1,555 postmenopausal women [1]. The case group (n = 739) included incident cases of in situ (!) or invasive BC in postmenopausal women. The control group (n = 816) included women from the general population within predefined quotas by age and socio-economic status (SES). While quotas by age were applied to obtain similar distributions by age among controls and among cases, quotas by SES in control women were applied to reflect the distribution by SES of women in the general population in the study area. Data of participants were obtained by a structured questionnaire during in-person interviews, and from pathology reports if applicable, respectively. Women were divided into current and past MHT user. MHTs were classified in estrogen-only therapy (ET), estrogen combined with progestin therapy (EPT) and tibolone. EPT was subdivided in three subtypes according to the progestogen constituent: natural micronized progesterone, progesterone derivatives, and testosterone derivatives. In comparison to never MHT users, any current or past MHT use (ET, EPT, tibolone) was not associated with an increased BC risk. However, in subanalysis BC risk was significantly increased for current use of EPT for 4 or more years (n = 73 cases and n = 56 controls, adjusted OR 1.55; 95 % CI 1.02–2.36). Within the group of current EPT users for 4 or more years, 14 cases had used estrogens combined with micronized progesterone (n = 17 controls), and 55 a combination with a synthetic progestogen (n = 34 controls), respectively. Compared to never MHT use, current use of EPT containing a synthetic progestogen for 4 or more years was associated with a significantly increased BC risk (adjusted OR 2.07; 95 % CI 1.26–3.39), but EPT containing micronized progesterone was not (adjusted OR 0.79; 95 % CI 0.37–1.71). 73 % of current MHT users started treatment within the first year of onset of menopause. Early EPT (n = 52 cases and n = 38 controls, adjusted OR 1.65; 95 % CI 1.02–2.69), but not early ET, starters had a significantly higher BC risk compared to never MHT users. In contrast, MHT initiation beyond 1 year after menopause was not associated with an increased BC risk. The authors concluded that: (1) ET and EPT containing natural progesterone did not increase BC risk whereas, (2) BC risk was increased in users of tibolone or EPT containing a synthetic progestogen, respectively, and that (3) MHT use early after onset of menopause was associated with an increased BC risk as compared to women who delay MHT beyond 1 or more years.

Heterogeneity in the Relationship between Happiness and Age: Evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel

This paper studies the evolution of life satisfaction over the life course in Germany. It clarifies the causal interpretation of the econometric model by discussing the choice of control variables and the underidentification between age, cohort and time effects. The empirical part analyzes the distribution of life satisfaction over the life course at the aggregated, subgroup and individual level. To the findings: On average, life satisfaction is mildly decreasing up to age 55 followed by a hump shape with a maximum at 70. The analysis at the lower levels suggests that people differ in their life satisfaction trends, whereas the hump shape after age 55 is robust. No important differences between men and women are found. In contrast, education groups differ in their trends: highly educated people become happier over the life cycle, where life satisfaction decreases for less-educated people.

How the Euro divides the union: the effect of economic adjustment on support for democracy in Europe

As often pointed out in the literature on the European debt crisis, the policy programme of austerity and internal devaluation imposed on countries in the Eurozone's periphery exhibits a lack of democratic legitimacy. This article analyses the consequences these developments have for democratic support at both the European and national levels. We show that through the policies of economic adjustment, a majority of citizens in crisis countries has become ‘detached’ from their democratic political system. By cutting loose the Eurozone's periphery from the rest of Europe in terms of democratic legitimacy, the Euro has divided the union, instead of uniting it as foreseen by its architects. Our results are based on aggregated Eurobarometer surveys conducted in 28 European Union (EU) member states between 2002 and 2014. We employ quantitative time-series cross-sectional regression analyses. Moreover, we estimate the causal effect of economic adjustment in a comparative case study of four cases using the synthetic control method.

Body mass index of Vietnamese children ages 6--15 years old

Childhood overweight can increase the risk of chronic diseases later in life. To determine the prevalence, trends and determinants of overweight among children ages 6-15 years old in Vietnam, we assessed data on body mass index (BMI) and demographic and socio-economic characteristics obtained from the 1992 Vietnam Living Standard Survey (1992 VLSS), the 1997 Vietnam Living Standard Survey (1997 VLSS), and the 2000 General Nutrition Survey (2000 GNS). These surveys used multi-stage cluster sample designs to produce nationally representative samples of Vietnamese children ages 6-15 years in 1992-1993, 1997-1998 and 2000. BMI classification was determined using cut-off values set by the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF). The mean prevalence of at risk of overweight and overweight among Vietnamese children rapidly increased from 0.4% in 1992 to 2.0% in 2000, along with a high prevalence of underweight (33.4% in 2000). Increases in weight, height and BMI varied according to gender, area of residence and socioeconomic status. Age, areas of residence and education of the household head are statistically significant predictors of at risk of overweight and overweight. This study identified the prevalence and trends of weight among children crucial to understanding the prevention of child overweight in Vietnam. ^

Helicobacter pylori infection and the effect on growth in a cohort of children in the US/Mexico border

Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) is an S-shaped or curved gram-negative bacterium that is mostly found in the human stomach. H. pylori causes gastritis in adults and children, which can lead to gastric ulcers or risk of cancer. Transmission of this bacterial infection remains to be unknown but is mostly acquired during childhood. Little is known about the effect H. pylori has on growth in children. Although some studies have reported that H. pylori is associated with subnormal growth, the association of H. pylori with growth retardation and malnutrition is poorly described. Data from this study comes from The Pasitos Cohort Study which draws its population from three border communities which include Socorro and San Elizario in Texas, as well as Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico. Birth documentation was obtained for 803 infants and 472 entered follow-up. This cohort study allowed us to assess the growth of children from 6 months to the seventh anniversary, and describe the prevalence of underweight, short stature and overweight in the study population. We also tested the hypothesis that children in the Pasitos Cohort Study who were ever infected with H. pylori show an increased risk of growth retardation or malnutrition at 66 months of age. Using the 2000 CDC Growth Reference, we found that the mean BMI of the study population increased as children grew older, while the mean of their height for age decreased slightly. The proportion of children who were classified as of short stature was under 5%, while those considered underweight were less than 10% at selected six-months of age intervals. Using the subset of children who were 66 months of age we found that the risk of underweight was higher among those who ever tested positive for H. pylori infection using the urea breath test; however, due to small numbers of children with 'wasting' this difference was not statistically significant. Moreover, since the six cases of under weight occurred among children of low socio-economic status we could not rule out potential confounding. The risk of developing short stature was not different among those ever infected and those who never tested positive for H. pylori infection. ^

The relationship of anthropometric measures of Hispanic children up to the age 5, to economic status and parental stature

Using data from the Hispanic Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1982-1984 (HHANES) of the Nutritional Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), the heights, weights and arm circumferences of 217 Mexican-American children ranging in age from six to sixty months were examined to assess whether birth weight, parental stature, and economic status greatly influenced growth patterns of Mexican-American children living with both parents.^ Heights, weights, and arm circumferences were converted to standardized values of height-for-age, weight-for-age, and arm circumference-for-age using norms developed for Anglo-American children (NCHS, 1977).^ Correlation and contingency table analysis were performed to test hypotheses concerning factors found associated with the stature of children in earlier studies.^ While relationships among childhood stature and birth weight, parental stature, and economic status were in the expected direction, few were statistically significant due to the small number of cases in the analyses. Reliable conclusions concerning these relationships require a much longer sample of families. ^

SEVERITY OF IRON DEFICIENCY ANEMIA AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO GROWTH AND MORBIDITY IN A POPULATION OF PRE-SCHOOLERS IN RURAL GUATEMALA (IRON DEFICIENCY, MORBIDITY, GROWTH)

The objectives of this study were to determine the nature of the relationship between severity of iron deficiency anemia, response to iron treatment, respiratory and gastrointestinal illness and weight change. Seventy-five pre-school children from rural Guatemala received daily oral iron therapy for an eleven week period, and were classified into one of three groups having different degrees of iron deficiency anemia. Anthropometric and biochemical data were collected prior and after iron treatment; morbidity data were collected throughout the period of treatment. The outcome variables were percentage weight change, percentage of total days ill with any type of symptom, percentage of total days ill with gastrointestinal symptoms, percentage of total days ill with respiratory symptoms, percentage of total days ill with combination syndrome symptoms. Age, sex and socio-economic status, were independent of any of the independent or outcome variables used. On the other hand, the level of hemoglobin covaried with the height of the children, the smallest children were the most severely anemic. The relationships between hemoglobin levels and weight change, frequency of morbidity (gastrointestinal, respiratory and combination syndrome) and total number of days ill with any symptomatology were investigated. No statistical significance was found in these analyses except when contrasting children with normal hemoglobin levels to iron deficient children, where the findings indicated the normal children experienced more gastrointestinal morbidity. The same relationship were again analyzed but including delta hemoglobin as covariate in the analysis, this latter one was found to be significant at 7% when the percentage of days ill from gastrointestinal morbidity was tested against the hemoglobin groups. The relationship found indicates that, all other covariates accounted for, the percentage of days ill from gastrointestinal morbidity will decrease approximately 1% for each 1% increase in delta of hemoglobin. ^

La educación, base para el desarrollo y la seguridad a escala humana

Las teorías sobre el desarrollo son en realidad un dinámico debate acerca de la relación población/recursos, de las condiciones de inequidad a escala planetaria y al interior de las naciones, y de las formas de superarlas. Para avanzar hacia el desarrollo humano, es prioritario enfocar las acciones en la superación de las carencias que afectan la situación personal de los ciudadanos y eliminar los obstáculos que impiden su bienestar en relación con las condiciones medioambientales en las que transcurre su vida. La educación es comprendida como el eje fundamental para alcanzar niveles de desarrollo aceptables, asegurando superar situaciones de exclusión social. Sobre la base de encuestas en cuatro establecimientos educativos del Gran Mendoza, se analizan las relaciones existentes entre las representaciones, de los adolescentes y sus familias sobre la importancia de la educación como medio optimizador de las situaciones socioeconómicas y los proyectos de capacitación futura, tanto a nivel terciario como universitario.

Impacto de un programa de alfabetización temprana en niños de sectores urbano marginales

Este trabajo tiene como objetivos contribuir al conocimiento del proceso de alfabetización temprana en español en niños de sectores sociales desfavorecidos, y analizar los resultados de la implementación de un programa destinado al desarrollo de habilidades y conocimientos relativos a la lectura y la escritura inicial. El tipo de intervención propuesta, surge del programa ECOS , ya probado en español, pero no replicado suficientemente en niños de edades preescolares. Se ha estudiado el impacto de la aplicación de dicho programa, destinado a niños de 4, 5 y 6 años de edad, pertenecientes a sectores en desventaja socio económica, que concurrían a jardines de infantes de la Provincia de Buenos Aires (Argentina). Esta tesis se enmarca en los modelos de investigación proporcionados desde la Psicología Cognitiva y la corriente sociocultural, y sustenta la hipótesis de que el presente programa incrementa, en mayor medida que la curricula escolar las habilidades de conciencia fonológica, el reconocimiento y escritura de palabras y textos, así como también las habilidades de comprensión y producción oral de textos narrativos, en el corto y mediano plazo. Su originalidad reside en la especificidad del programa seleccionado y en haber considerado de manera conjunta la evaluación de su impacto, a través de un seguimiento longitudinal, que permitió no sólo verificar la persistencia de sus efectos a mediano plazo, sino también las relaciones que guardan entre sí las variables evaluadas, el poder predictivo de unas sobre otras, el momento en el que se produce el impacto y sobre cuáles de las variables y el tamaño de ese impacto. La investigación se realizó comparando el desempeño de dos grupos de niños uno experimental en el cual se aplicó dicho programa y uno control. Al inicio de la investigación los niños fueron homologados en cuanto al estrato social de procedencia (identificado por el nivel educacional y ocupacional de los padres), a las características de los establecimientos educativos a los que concurrían y a la de los contextos alfabetizadores hogareños así como respecto de sus conocimientos y habilidades iniciales. Las variables a ser consideradas en la evaluación de los desempeños fueron las siguientes: habilidades de conciencia fonológica, conocimientos sobre material impreso y sobre el sistema de escritura, lectura y escritura de palabras de diferente longitud y complejidad, lectura de pseudopalabras, lectura y escritura de textos y comprensión y renarración oral de textos narrativos. Los niños fueron evaluados en cuatro oportunidades diferentes, comparándose los desempeños de ambos grupos en el transcurso de dos años y medio: Se aplicó un modelo de medidas repetidas y se calculó el estadístico Effect Size para todas las variables al finalizar la intervención y mediano plazo. Las conclusiones extraídas de esta investigación ponen en evidencia el impacto positivo del programa de intervención. A mediano plazo se verifica una diferencia promedio de alrededor del 30 entre los niños de ambos grupos, en los porcentajes de aciertos en las pruebas que evalúan las habilidades de conciencia fonológica, lectura y escritura de palabras y comprensión de textos

Pulperos y pulperías rurales bonaerenses : Su influencia en la campaña y los pueblos, 1780-1820

En las últimas décadas se ha construido una nueva imagen del mundo rural pampeano que ha complejizado el análisis con nuevos temas, métodos y fuentes. En estos estudios si bien los pulperos y pulperías están presentes siempre figuran de manera lateral o complementaria. En este trabajo me propuse profundizar el estudio de pulperos y pulperías rurales una vez reconocida su influencia en materia económica, política y social tanto en la campaña en su conjunto como hacia el interior de los pueblos. El tema elegido entonces responde a la necesidad de un estudio exclusivo y exhaustivo sobre un grupo que entendemos ha cumplido una función muy relevante como elemento central en la expansión, ocupación y estructuración de la sociedad rural bonaerense al igual que lo fueron las estancias, los fuertes y las parroquias. La expansión y consolidación de la campaña bonaerense ha sido acompañada por el despliegue comercial en las últimas décadas del siglo XVIII. Podemos hablar de un fenómeno de retroalimentación entre comerciantes y explotaciones ganaderas protagonizado con frecuencia por las mismas personas. En este sentido las pulperías contribuyeron a la formación de pueblos, la ocupación de nuevas tierras y el desarrollo de relaciones pacíficas con los pueblos originarios, aunque a veces fueron agentes disruptores. Nos queda claro que las pulperías eran engranajes importantes dentro de la economía local y ubicaban a sus propietarios por encima de la mayoría de los productores. Sin embargo muchos pulperos también eran productores o viceversa y esa diversificación les permitía disminuir los riesgos y las posibilidades de "naufragio". Creemos haber matizado y en algunos casos rechazado algunas de las imágenes literarias que en general configuraron una visión muy negativa de los pulperos y sus negocios. El pulpero no era muy distinto a su clientela y formaba parte de las costumbres predominantes de la campaña más allá de tener, en muchos casos, una posición económica más holgada. En este sentido, muchos pulperos fueron vecinos referentes en sus pueblos cumpliendo distintas funciones más allá de la fundamental que era el abastecimiento de bienes básicos, ocuparon cargos en el andamiaje institucional y se erigieron en la "voz del pueblo". La posición privilegiada de algunos pulperos les permitía evadir el peso de la justicia y cuando ocupaban cargos sacar provecho de ellos. Esto refuerza la idea de connivencia entre comercializadores locales y el aparato institucional local en torno al usufructo del tráfico de cueros que cada vez se hacía más rentable.

Reestructuración productiva y configuración territorial : Pequeña industria metalmecánica en la Ciudad de Córdoba 2002-2012

El desarrollo de esta investigación se conforma como la búsqueda de vinculaciones territoriales a escala urbana en la Ciudad de Córdoba frente a un proceso de carácter global, como es el de la reestructuración productiva. Este concreto real se aborda desde un caso, el de la pequeña industria metalmecánica, que por presencia histórica y peso en el producto bruto geográfico de la ciudad se constituye en uno de los sostenes de la economía urbana. El abordaje del proceso de reestructuración productiva se realiza desde el análisis de las prácticas de los agentes. Por un lado, las del gobierno como agente que regula las relaciones productivas a través de políticas públicas industriales en el marco de un régimen de acumulación capitalista, y por otro lado, las prácticas de las pequeñas industrias metalmecánicas como agentes que se desenvuelven en el procesos de producción en una dialéctica entre las tendencias de producción de reestructuración de escala global y un entorno inmediato de relaciones productivas con otros agentes, procesos de producción, marco regulatorio y políticas públicas. Esta dialéctica se materializa en el territorio y da lugar a una configuración territorial industrial a escala urbana, que no solo se explica por las prácticas de los agentes industriales sino además por el juego de otros agentes que producen territorio. En el período postconvertibilidad a partir del 2002, el crecimiento de las actividades productivas en su conjunto, imprimen una dinámica compleja de expansión urbana y de relaciones entre agentes de distintos sectores, con distintos intereses y poder de actuar en el campo. Aquí se avanza en comprender las dimensiones de la expansión urbana que inciden en la configuración territorial industrial. La configuración territorial como vínculo indisociable entre las prácticas de agentes (sistema de acciones) y la estructura productiva territorial (sistema de objetos) muta permanentemente en el contexto postconvertibilidad debido al intenso dinamismo que adquiere la actividad industrial, entre habitus construidos históricamente y nuevas prácticas, que se encuentran en tensión permanente. Este concreto real va conformando un campo socio económico que discurre entre viejas y nuevas prácticas y configura un territorio fragmentado y disociado. El trabajo parte de la consideración de las políticas públicas industriales y las prácticas específicas de los agentes de las pequeñas industrias para luego analizar a escala urbana la configuración territorial, en donde las dimensiones de la expansión urbana interactúan con la especificidad de las prácticas de los agentes analizados. El cambio paulatino en las políticas destinadas al sector industrial postconvertibilidad manifiesta una presencia cada vez más relevante de PyMEs. No obstante la inercia heredada del periodo anterior revela, en la gestión de las políticas industriales y las prácticas empresarias, un camino caracterizado por la desconfianza e incertidumbre de las pequeñas empresas