Consistent phenological shifts in the making of a biodiversity hotspot: the Cape flora

Background The best documented survival responses of organisms to past climate change on short (glacial-interglacial) timescales are distributional shifts. Despite ample evidence on such timescales for local adaptations of populations at specific sites, the long-term impacts of such changes on evolutionary significant units in response to past climatic change have been little documented. Here we use phylogenies to reconstruct changes in distribution and flowering ecology of the Cape flora - South Africa's biodiversity hotspot - through a period of past (Neogene and Quaternary) changes in the seasonality of rainfall over a timescale of several million years. Results Forty-three distributional and phenological shifts consistent with past climatic change occur across the flora, and a comparable number of clades underwent adaptive changes in their flowering phenology (9 clades; half of the clades investigated) as underwent distributional shifts (12 clades; two thirds of the clades investigated). Of extant Cape angiosperm species, 14-41% have been contributed by lineages that show distributional shifts consistent with past climate change, yet a similar proportion (14-55%) arose from lineages that shifted flowering phenology. Conclusions Adaptive changes in ecology at the scale we uncover in the Cape and consistent with past climatic change have not been documented for other floras. Shifts in climate tolerance appear to have been more important in this flora than is currently appreciated, and lineages that underwent such shifts went on to contribute a high proportion of the flora's extant species diversity. That shifts in phenology, on an evolutionary timescale and on such a scale, have not yet been detected for other floras is likely a result of the method used; shifts in flowering phenology cannot be detected in the fossil record.

Separation of oligosaccharides from caprine milk whey, prior to prebiotic evaluation

Milk oligosaccharides are believed to have beneficial biological properties. Caprine milk has a relatively high concentration of oligosaccharides in comparison to other ruminant milks and has the closest oligosaccharide profile to human milk. The first stage in recovering oligosaccharides from caprine milk whey, a by-product of cheese making, was accomplished by ultrafiltration to remove proteins and fat globules, leaving more than 97% of the initial carbohydrates, mainly lactose, in the permeate. The ultrafiltered permeate was further processed using a 1 kDa ‘tight’ ultrafiltration membrane, which retained less than 7% of the remaining lactose. The final retentate was fractionated by preparative scale molecular size exclusion chromatography, to yield 28 fractions, of which oligosaccharide-rich fractions were detected somewhere between fractions 9/10 to 16/17, suitable for functionality and gut health promotion testing. All fractions were evaluated for their oligosaccharide and carbohydrate profiles using three complementary analytical methods.

Entrepreneurial opportunities, implicit contracts and market making for complex consumer goods

This article extends the theory of entrepreneurial opportunity exploitation, outlining how under certain conditions, opportunity exploitation is dependent on market making innovations. Where adverse selection and moral hazard characterize markets, consumers are likely to withdraw regardless of product quality. In order to overcome consumer resistance, entrepreneurs must signal credible commitments. But because consumers purchase without fully specifying requirements, entrepreneurs' commitments take the partial form of implicit contracts, creating strong mutual commitments to repeated transactions. These commitments enable novel markets to function, but introduce additional costs. This article illustrates the theory with the historic case of Singer in sewing machines

Collaboration of the weather and climate communities to advance subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have identified collaborations and scientific priorities to accelerate advances in analysis and prediction at subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales, which include i) advancing knowledge of mesoscale–planetary-scale interactions and their prediction; ii) developing high-resolution global–regional climate simulations, with advanced representation of physical processes, to improve the predictive skill of subseasonal and seasonal variability of high-impact events, such as seasonal droughts and floods, blocking, and tropical and extratropical cyclones; iii) contributing to the improvement of data assimilation methods for monitoring and predicting used in coupled ocean–atmosphere–land and Earth system models; and iv) developing and transferring diagnostic and prognostic information tailored to socioeconomic decision making. The document puts forward specific underpinning research, linkage, and requirements necessary to achieve the goals of the proposed collaboration.

Wave-breaking characteristics of midlatitude blocking

In this article, Northern Hemisphere winter midlatitude blocking is analysed through its wave-breaking characteristics. Rossby wave breaking is identified as a key process in blocking occurrence, as it provides the mechanism for the meridional reversal pattern typical of blocking. Two indices are designed to detect the major properties of wave breaking, i.e. the orientation (cyclonic/anticyclonic–direction of breaking or DB index) and the relative contribution of air masses (warm/cold–relative intensity or RI index). The use of the DB index differentiates between the anticyclonic cases over Europe and Asia and the cyclonic events over the oceanic basins. One of the three regions displaying cyclonic type was found over the Atlantic Ocean, the other two being over the Pacific Ocean. The first of these is located over the western side of the Pacific and is dominated by warm air extrusions, whereas the second is placed northward of the exit region of the jet stream, where the meridional θ gradient is much weaker. Two European blocking types have been detected using the RI index, which separates out the cases dominated by warm and cold air masses. The latter cases in particular exhibited a well-structured dipole, with associated strong anomalies in both temperature and precipitation. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

‘NSC 68 and the Soviet Threat: A New Perspective on Western Threat Perception and Policy Making’

It has been argued that the US strategy paper NSC 68 of 1950 which ushered in the great Cold War rearmament process first in the US and then in NATO was a vast overreaction. This paper argues, by contrast, that given the intelligence about the Soviet Union's and its satellites' military buildup and the role of China in that period, this was a reasonable strategy to embrace.

‘Modern Man’s Myths: The Influence of Historical Memory on Policy-Making’

Historical events are interpreted by collectivities in ways that are then instrumentalised in policy-making processes. This creates mythical "truths" and "rules of conduct" which in 20th (21st) century Western civilisations are not much different from those of pre-Enlightenment societies.

Making robust policy decision using global biodiversity indicators

In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change.

Making sense of survival: refining the treatment of state preferences in neorealist theory

The assumption that ‘states' primary goal is survival’ lies at the heart of the neorealist paradigm. A careful examination of the assumption, however, reveals that neorealists draw upon a number of distinct interpretations of the ‘survival assumption’ that are then treated as if they are the same, pointing towards conceptual problems that surround the treatment of state preferences. This article offers a specification that focuses on two questions that highlight the role and function of the survival assumption in the neorealist logic: (i) what do states have to lose if they fail to adopt self-help strategies?; and (ii) how does concern for relevant losses motivate state behaviour and affect international outcomes? Answering these questions through the exploration of governing elites' sensitivity towards regime stability and territorial integrity of the state, in turn, addresses the aforementioned conceptual problems. This specification has further implications for the debates among defensive and offensive realists, potential extensions of the neorealist logic beyond the Westphalian states, and the relationship between neorealist theory and policy analysis.

Wave-breaking characteristics of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking: a two-dimensional approach

This paper generalises and applies recently developed blocking diagnostics in a two- dimensional latitude-longitude context, which takes into consideration both mid- and high-latitude blocking. These diagnostics identify characteristics of the associated wave-breaking as seen in the potential temperature (θ) on the dynamical tropopause, in particular the cyclonic or anticyclonic Direction of wave-Breaking (DB index), and the Relative Intensity (RI index) of the air masses that contribute to blocking formation. The methodology is extended to a 2-D domain and a cluster technique is deployed to classify mid- and high-latitude blocking according to the wave-breaking characteristics. Mid-latitude blocking is observed over Europe and Asia, where the meridional gradient of θ is generally weak, whereas high-latitude blocking is mainly present over the oceans, to the north of the jet-stream, where the meridional gradient of θ is much stronger. They occur respectively on the equatorward and poleward flank of the jet- stream, where the horizontal shear ∂u/∂y is positive in the first case and negative in the second case. A regional analysis is also conducted. It is found that cold-anticyclonic and cyclonic blocking divert the storm-track respectively to the south and to the north over the East Atlantic and western Europe. Furthermore, warm-cyclonic blocking over the Pacific and cold-anticyclonic blocking over Europe are identified as the most persistent types and are associated with large amplitude anomalies in temperature and precipitation. Finally, the high-latitude, cyclonic events seem to correlate well with low- frequency modes of variability over the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean.

Neural and psychological maturation of decision-making in adolescence and young adulthood

We examined the maturation of decision-making from early adolescence to mid-adulthood using fMRI of a variant of the Iowa gambling task. We have previously shown that performance in this task relies on sensitivity to accumulating negative outcomes in ventromedial PFC and dorsolateral PFC. Here, we further formalize outcome evaluation (as driven by prediction errors [PE], using a reinforcement learning model) and examine its development. Task performance improved significantly during adolescence, stabilizing in adulthood. Performance relied on greater impact of negative compared with positive PEs, the relative impact of which matured from adolescence into adulthood. Adolescents also showed increased exploratory behavior, expressed as a propensity to shift responding between options independently of outcome quality, whereas adults showed no systematic shifting patterns. The correlation between PE representation and improved performance strengthened with age for activation in ventral and dorsal PFC, ventral striatum, and temporal and parietal cortices. There was a medial-lateral distinction in the prefrontal substrates of effective PE utilization between adults and adolescents: Increased utilization of negative PEs, a hallmark of successful performance in the task, was associated with increased activation in ventromedial PFC in adults, but decreased activation in ventrolateral PFC and striatum in adolescents. These results suggest that adults and adolescents engage qualitatively distinct neural and psychological processes during decision-making, the development of which is not exclusively dependent on reward-processing maturation.

Neural stem cells and cell replacement therapy: making the right cells

The past few years have seen major advances in the field of NSC (neural stem cell) research with increasing emphasis towards its application in cell-replacement therapy for neurological disorders. However, the clinical application of NSCs will remain largely unfeasible until a comprehensive understanding of the cellular and molecular mechanisms of NSC fate specification is achieved. With this understanding will come an increased possibility to exploit the potential of stem cells in order to manufacture transplantable NSCs able to provide a safe and effective therapy for previously untreatable neurological disorders. Since the pathology of each of these disorders is determined by the loss or damage of a specific neural cell population, it may be necessary to generate a range of NSCs able to replace specific neurons or glia rather than generating a generic NSC population. Currently, a diverse range of strategies is being investigated with this goal in mind. In this review, we focus on the relationship between NSC specification and differentiation and discuss how this information may be used to direct NSCs towards a particular fate.