Earthquakes, influenza and cycles of Indian kala-azar.

It is suggested that previous data indicate 3 major epidemics of kala-azar in Assam between 1875 and 1950, with inter-epidemic periods of 30-45 and 20 years. This deviates from the popular view of regular cycles with a 10-20 year period. A deterministic mathematical model of kala-azar is used to find the simplest explanation for the timing of the 3 epidemics, paying particular attention to the role of extrinsic (drugs, natural disasters, other infectious diseases) versus intrinsic (host and vector dynamics, birth and death rates, immunity) processes in provoking the second. We conclude that, whilst widespread influenza in 1918-1919 may have magnified the second epidemic, intrinsic population processes provide the simplest explanation for its timing and synchrony throughout Assam. The model also shows that the second inter-epidemic period is expected to be shorter than the first, even in the absence of extrinsic agents, and highlights the importance of a small fraction of patients becoming chronically infectious (with post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis) after treatment during an epidemic.

Spawning cycles and habitats for ballyhoo (Hemiramphus brasiliensis) and balao (H. balao) in south Florida

Two halfbeak species, ballyhoo (Hemiramphus brasiliensis) and balao (H. balao), are harvested as bait in south Florida waters, and recent changes in fishing effort and regulations prompted this investigation of the overlap of halfbeak fishing grounds and spawning grounds. Halfbeaks were sampled aboard commercial fishing vessels, and during fishery-independent trips, to determine spatial and temporal spawning patterns of both species. Cyclic patterns of gonadosomatic indices (GSIs) indicated that both species spawned during spring and summer months. Histological analysis demonstrated that specific stages of oocyte development can be predicted from GSI values; for example, female ballyhoo with GSIs >6.0 had hydrated oocytes that were 2.0−3.5 mm diameter. Diel changes in oocyte diameters and histological criteria demonstrated that final oocyte maturation occurred over a 30- to 36-hour period and that ballyhoo spawned at dusk. Hydration of oocytes began in the morning, and ovulation occurred at sunset of that same day; therefore females with hydrated oocytes were ready to spawn within hours. We compared maps of all locations where fish were collected to maps of locations where spawning females (i.e. females with GSIs >6.0) were collected to determine the degree of overlap of halfbeak fishing and spawning grounds. We also used geographic information system (GIS) data to describe the depth and bottom type of halfbeak spawning grounds. Ballyhoo spawned all along the coral reef tract of the Atlantic Ocean, inshore of the reef tract, and in association with bank habitats within Florida Bay. In the Atlantic Ocean, balao spawned along the reef tract and in deeper, more offshore waters than did ballyhoo; balao were not found inshore of the coral reef tract or in Florida Bay. Both halfbeak species, considered together, spawned throughout the fishing grounds of south Florida.

A 139-year dendroclimatic cycle, cultural/environmental history, sunspots, and longer-term cycles

Higher resolution time-stratigraphic records suggest correlation of lower frequency paleoclimatic events with Milankovitch obliquity/precessional cycles and of higher frequency events with the evidently resonance-related Pettersson maximum tidal force (MTF) model. Subsequently published records, mainly pollen, seemingly confirm that atmospheric resonances may have modulated past climatic changes in phase with average MTF cycles of 1668, 1112, and 556 years, as calculated in anomalistic years from planetary movements by Stacey. Stacey accepts Pettersson's dating of AD 1433 (517 YBP) for the last major perihelian spring tide based solely on calculations of moon- and earth-orbital relations to the sun. Use of AD 1433 as an origin for the tidal resonance model seemingly continues to provide a best fit for the timing of cyclical patterns in the presented paleoclimate time series.

锡林河流域温带草地植物VOC释放及其对草地生态系统碳循环的贡献

植物源挥发性有机碳化合物（Volitale organic compounds, VOC）是大气VOC的主要来源，与对流层大气质量、大气化学密切相关。鉴于温带草地的分布范围很广，草地植物VOC释放潜力某种程度上影响植物源VOC的总释放量。另外，植物源VOC也是光合作用固定碳素的损失方式之一，可能在特定区域或生态系统中具有重要意义。基于上述想法，本文设计了四个方面的实验作为研究内容：1） 温带草地物种水平VOC释放潜力、及其与植物功能群的关系？2) 沙地植物物种水平VOC释放潜力、及其与植物功能群的关系？3) 沙地植物-草地植物VOC释放潜力存在显著性差异吗？4) 温带典型草地和退化草地的VOC释放速率如何？在生态系统水平，植物源VOC对温带草地碳循环的贡献多大？ 在所测定的175种温带草地植物中，不同植物间异戊二烯和单萜释放潜力差异很大;除少数物种外，大多数植物的异戊二烯和单萜释放潜力都较低，尤其是典型草地的优势物种。在此基础上，作者探讨了分类学赋值方法对温带草地植被的可行性，并初步建立了锡林河流域温带草地植物的VOC释放目录（共277种植物）。另外，温带草地植物的异戊二烯和单萜释放潜力与植物功能群（植物生活型和水分功能群）具有一定的联系，尤其是植物生活型。总的来说，温带草原的优势生活型（物种），即多年生根茎禾草（或多年生丛生禾草），具有较低的异戊二烯和单萜释放潜力。各水分功能群间差异不显著，但中旱生植物、旱中生植物 (温带草原的优势功能群)，具有较低的异戊二烯、单萜释放潜力。因此，温带草原退化过程中，那些具有较高VOC释放潜力的植物，重要性将会增加。 沙地植物种类组成非常丰富，不同物种间的异戊二烯和单萜释放潜力变异也很大。另外，沙地植物的异戊二烯和单萜释放潜力与其功能群间关系较密切，不同植物生活型间差异显著;其中也以多年生根茎禾草、多年生从生禾草的释放潜力最低，而乔木的释放潜力相对最高;该结论基本与草地的研究结论一致。然而，沙地植物的异戊二烯和单萜释放潜力与其水分功能群的关系比较模糊，中生植物具有更高的释放潜力，湿生植物的释放潜力较小。 通过对比沙地植物和草地植物的释放潜力，发现沙地植物的异戊二烯和单萜释放潜力比草地植物高，且这种差异整体上显著。另外，这种显著性差异，在不同植物生活型、水分功能群间也同样存在。沙地植物比对应的草地植物具有更高的异戊二烯和单萜释放潜力，最可能的原因：沙地正午的温度明显比草地温度高，前者实测温度可超过 45 ℃,这种经常性、周期性高温，促使沙地植物采用与草地植物不同的适应策略，即沙地植物通过释放更多的异戊二烯或单萜来减少其可能遭的热胁迫或热伤害，这种长期适应策略，使沙地植物具有更高的萜类化合物释放潜力。 本文还调查了温带典型草地生态系统和退化草地生态系统的异戊二烯和单萜释放速率，结果表明典型草地的标准异戊二烯和单萜释放速率分别为0.50 μgC g-1 h-1和0.69 μgC g-1 h-1;退化草地的标准异戊二烯和单萜释放潜力分别为0.32 μgC g-1 h-1和1.59 μgC g-1 h-1。总的来说，温带草地的异戊二烯和单萜释放速率都比较低，尤其是典型草地。整个生长季，典型草地释放的异戊二烯和单萜分别为31.6 mgC•m-2　和 70.4 mgC•m-2;退化草地的异戊二烯和单萜释放量分别为20.8 mgC•m-2 和 168.8 mgC•m-2。退化草地萜类化合物总释放速率远高于典型草地，尤其是单萜释放能力。过度放牧引起的草地退化，通过改变植被种类组成，对温带草地的异戊二烯和单萜释放速率产生显著影响;总体而言，温带草地退化将会使草地释放更多萜类化合物。 在温带草地生态系统中，Clost as VOC相对其NPP而言很小，在环境PAR和温度高时,它的贡献率相对较大;Clost as VOC约占典型草地生态系统NEP的5.32 %，退化草地生态系统NEP的0.23 %。植物源VOC释放所损失的碳素相对草地生态系统NPP而言几乎可以忽略不计;但是，相对其NEP，Clost as VOC还是具有一定的相关性。虽然，草地生态系统Clost as VOC对NPP或NEP的贡献率较小，但考虑到全球尺度植物源VOC的巨大释放速率，它在碳循环中的贡献率仍然不容忽视;在某些特殊的生态系统中，仍可能扮演重要角色。