Interações entre as políticas monetária e fiscal no Brasil sob a ótica da teoria fiscal do nível de preços

Este trabalho tem como objetivo identificar a predominância de um regime de Dominância Monetária ou Fiscal no Brasil no período Pós-Real. Para isto, o desenvolvimento desta análise é baseado em um modelo proposto por Canzoneri, Cumby e Diba (2000). O modelo propõe uma relação entre as séries dívida pública/PIB e superávit primário/PIB através da metodologia VAR (Vetores Autoregressivos) com análise sobre suas funções de impulso resposta. Outro objetivo é estender o artigo de Muscatelli et. al. (2002) sobre interações entre políticas monetária e fiscal utilizando o instrumental econométrico MS-VAR (Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Model) apresentado por Krolzig (1997), visto que o relacionamento entre as políticas pode não ser constante ao longo do tempo. Concluiu-se que a coordenação macroeconômica entre as políticas monetária e fiscal no Brasil foi praticamente de caráter substituta em todo período analisado e com regime predominantemente fiscal segundo o pressuposto de políticas não-ricardianas da Teoria Fiscal do Nível de Preços.

Evaluating the existence of structural change in the brazilian term structure of interest: evidence based on cointegration models with structural break

This paper investigates whether there is evidence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. Multivariate cointegration techniques are used to verify this evidence. Two econometrics models are estimated. The rst one is a Vector Autoregressive Model with Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) with smooth transition in the deterministic coe¢ cients (Ripatti and Saikkonen [25]). The second one is a VECM with abrupt structural change formulated by Hansen [13]. Two datasets were analysed. The rst one contains a nominal interest rate with maturity up to three years. The second data set focuses on maturity up to one year. The rst data set focuses on a sample period from 1995 to 2010 and the second from 1998 to 2010. The frequency is monthly. The estimated models suggest the existence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure. It was possible to document the existence of multiple regimes using both techniques for both databases. The risk premium for di¤erent spreads varied considerably during the earliest period of both samples and seemed to converge to stable and lower values at the end of the sample period. Long-term risk premiums seemed to converge to inter-national standards, although the Brazilian term structure is still subject to liquidity problems for longer maturities.

Determinantes do fluxo de fundos de investimento no Brasil

Nesse trabalho, procuramos identificar fatores sistemáticos que expliquem uma variação significativa nos fluxos destinados às diversas categorias de fundos de investimento brasileiros, a partir de análises de uma amostra de dados agregados de captações e resgates nesses produtos. O estudo buscou avaliar a existência de padrões de comportamento comuns aos investidores de fundos locais através da análise da migração de fluxos entre as diversas classes de fundos. Foram inicialmente tratados os fatores não comportamentais conhecidos que impactam o fluxo dos fundos, a variável dependente. Esses fatores conhecidos foram apurados através de uma revisão dos trabalhos acadêmicos dos mercados internacional e local. Após esse tratamento foi aplicado o método de decomposição de valores singulares (SVD - Singular Value Decomposition), com o objetivo de avaliarmos os efeitos comportamentais agrupados dos investidores. A decomposição em valores singulares sugere como principais fatores comuns comportamentos de entrada e saída de fundos em massa e migrações entre as classes de fundos de menor e as de maior risco, o que Baker e Wurgler (2007) chamaram de demanda especulativa, e que, segundo esses e outros autores pesquisados, poderia ser interpretada como uma proxy do sentimento dos investidores. Guercio e Tkac (2002) e Edelen et al. (2010), encontraram em suas pesquisas evidências da diferença de comportamento entre investidores de atacado e de varejo, o que foi detectado para a classes de fundos de Renda Variável no caso do presente estudo sobre o mercado brasileiro. O entendimento das variações na tolerância a risco dos investidores de fundos de investimento pode auxiliar na oferta de produtos mais compatíveis com a demanda. Isso permitiria projetar captações para os produtos com base nas características dessa oferta, o que também desenvolvemos nessa pesquisa para o caso das categorias de fundos Multimercado e Renda variável, através de um modelo de espaço de estados com sazonalidade determinística e inicialização SVD. O modelo proposto nesse trabalho parece ter conseguido capturar, na amostra avaliada (2005-2008), um comportamento que se manteve fora da amostra (2009-2011), validando, ao menos na amostra considerada, a proposta de extração dos componentes principais agregados do comportamento dos investidores de fundos brasileiros.

Previsão da estrutura a termo de taxa de juros aplicando o Filtro de Kalman ao modelo Vasicek: o caso brasileiro

Este trabalho tem o objetivo de testar a qualidade preditiva do Modelo Vasicek de dois fatores acoplado ao Filtro de Kalman. Aplicado a uma estratégia de investimento, incluímos um critério de Stop Loss nos períodos que o modelo não responde de forma satisfatória ao movimento das taxas de juros. Utilizando contratos futuros de DI disponíveis na BMFBovespa entre 01 de março de 2007 a 30 de maio de 2014, as simulações foram realizadas em diferentes momentos de mercado, verificando qual a melhor janela para obtenção dos parâmetros dos modelos, e por quanto tempo esses parâmetros estimam de maneira ótima o comportamento das taxas de juros. Os resultados foram comparados com os obtidos pelo Modelo Vetor-auto regressivo de ordem 1, e constatou-se que o Filtro de Kalman aplicado ao Modelo Vasicek de dois fatores não é o mais indicado para estudos relacionados a previsão das taxas de juros. As limitações desse modelo o restringe em conseguir estimar toda a curva de juros de uma só vez denegrindo seus resultados.

Affine processes, arbitrage-Free Term structures of legendre polynomials,and option pricing

Multivariate Affine term structure models have been increasingly used for pricing derivatives in fixed income markets. In these models, uncertainty of the term structure is driven by a state vector, while the short rate is an affine function of this vector. The model is characterized by a specific form for the stochastic differential equation (SDE) for the evolution of the state vector. This SDE presents restrictions on its drift term which rule out arbitrages in the market. In this paper we solve the following inverse problem: Suppose the term structure of interest rates is modeled by a linear combination of Legendre polynomials with random coefficients. Is there any SDE for these coefficients which rules out arbitrages? This problem is of particular empirical interest because the Legendre model is an example of factor model with clear interpretation for each factor, in which regards movements of the term structure. Moreover, the Affine structure of the Legendre model implies knowledge of its conditional characteristic function. From the econometric perspective, we propose arbitrage-free Legendre models to describe the evolution of the term structure. From the pricing perspective, we follow Duffie et al. (2000) in exploring Legendre conditional characteristic functions to obtain a computational tractable method to price fixed income derivatives. Closing the article, the empirical section presents precise evidence on the reward of implementing arbitrage-free parametric term structure models: The ability of obtaining a good approximation for the state vector by simply using cross sectional data.

Os determinantes macroeconômicos do spread bancário para pessoas físicas e jurídicas no Brasil: uma análise do período pós plano real

Este trabalho tem por objetivo a análise empírica dos fatores macroeconômicos que determinaram os níveis de spread bancário para pessoas físicas e pessoas jurídicas no Brasil no período pós-adoção do Plano Real até dezembro de 2012. Para isso foi utilizado um modelo de auto regressão vetorial com variáveis representativas de fatores macroeconômicos. O Trabalho expõe ainda algumas características da indústria bancária no Brasil e as particularidades do mercado de crédito praticado para pessoas físicas e pessoas jurídicas. Os resultados deste trabalho evidenciaram que: (i) a taxa básica de juros foi o principal fator macroeconômico de influência do spread praticado tanto para pessoas físicas quanto para pessoas jurídicas; (ii) Enquanto um impacto no nível de inflação ocasionou maior influência no spread para pessoas físicas, um impacto na volatilidade da taxa básica de juros influenciou positivamente o spread para pessoas jurídicas.

Assessing interdependence among countries' fundamentals and its implications for exchange rate misalignment estimates: An empirical exercise based on GVAR

Exchange rates are important macroeconomic prices and changes in these rates a ect economic activity, prices, interest rates, and trade ows. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that the global vector autoregressions model (GVAR) proposed by Pesaran and co-authors can add relevant information to the literature on measuring exchange rate misalignment. Our empirical exercise suggests that the estimate exchange rate misalignment obtained from GVAR can be quite di erent to that using the traditional cointegrated time series techniques, which treat countries as detached entities. The di erences between the two approaches are more pronounced for small and developing countries. Our results also suggest a strong interdependence among eurozone countries, as expected

System identification and active vibration control of a flexible structure

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Structural damage identification and location using grammian matrices

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Parâmetro de regularização em problemas inversos: estudo numérico com a transformada de Radon

In general, an inverse problem corresponds to find a value of an element x in a suitable vector space, given a vector y measuring it, in some sense. When we discretize the problem, it usually boils down to solve an equation system f(x) = y, where f : U Rm ! Rn represents the step function in any domain U of the appropriate Rm. As a general rule, we arrive to an ill-posed problem. The resolution of inverse problems has been widely researched along the last decades, because many problems in science and industry consist in determining unknowns that we try to know, by observing its effects under certain indirect measures. Our general subject of this dissertation is the choice of Tykhonov´s regulaziration parameter of a poorly conditioned linear problem, as we are going to discuss on chapter 1 of this dissertation, focusing on the three most popular methods in nowadays literature of the area. Our more specific focus in this dissertation consists in the simulations reported on chapter 2, aiming to compare the performance of the three methods in the recuperation of images measured with the Radon transform, perturbed by the addition of gaussian i.i.d. noise. We choosed a difference operator as regularizer of the problem. The contribution we try to make, in this dissertation, mainly consists on the discussion of numerical simulations we execute, as is exposed in Chapter 2. We understand that the meaning of this dissertation lays much more on the questions which it raises than on saying something definitive about the subject. Partly, for beeing based on numerical experiments with no new mathematical results associated to it, partly for being about numerical experiments made with a single operator. On the other hand, we got some observations which seemed to us interesting on the simulations performed, considered the literature of the area. In special, we highlight observations we resume, at the conclusion of this work, about the different vocations of methods like GCV and L-curve and, also, about the optimal parameters tendency observed in the L-curve method of grouping themselves in a small gap, strongly correlated with the behavior of the generalized singular value decomposition curve of the involved operators, under reasonably broad regularity conditions in the images to be recovered

Estudo da atividade sísmica em São Caetano-PE em 2007

In this dissertation we studied the seismic activity in the São Caetano county, Pernambuco State, Northeastern Brazil, located near the Pernambuco Lineament. The Pernambuco Lineament is a one of Neoproterozoic continental-scale shear zones that deforms the Borborema province. The seismicity estudied occurred in a NE trending branch of Pernambuco Lineament. The seismic activity in São Caetano started in 2006 and in May 20th, 2006 a 4,0 mb earthquake hit there. This was the largest earthquake ever reported in Pernambuco State. This dissertation is the result of a campaign done in the period from Februay 1th 2007 to July 31 th 2007. In this campaign up to nine three-component digital seismographic stations were deployed and the collected data was used to determine hypocenters and focal mechanism. A total of 214 earthquakes, recorded at least by three stations, were analyzed. To determine hypocenters and time origin the HYPO71 program was used assuming a half-space model with parameters : VP (P-wave velocity) equal to 5.90 km/s and the ratio VP/VS 1.70, where VS is the S-wave velocity. The earthquakes hypocentral distribution was approximately 4 km long and agrees with the NE-SW direction of the Pernambuco Lineamento branch. Hypocentres depth range from 2 to 8 km. The composed focal mechanism was made from a group of 14 selected earthquakes. We try firstly to find the fault plane solution matching the polarity distribution at stations, using the FPFIT program. The result was 43 deg ± 15 deg for strike, 59 deg ± 9 deg for dip and -142 deg ± 15 deg for rake. We also fitted a plane using the hypocentral distribution to obtain the dip and azimuth of the hypocentral distribution. The results obtained by this fit were 58 deg for the azimuth, 55 deg for the dip and -155 deg for rake. This result shows a mechanism of a strike-slip dextral fault with a normal component. This dissertation shows, once more, that there is a good correlation between the seismic activity and geological features in the region near the Pernambuco Lineament and its NE branches

Estudoda sismicidade na região de Sobral - CE em 2008

The town of Sobral is located at the northwest part of the Ceará State, 250 km away from its capital, Fortaleza. In January 2008, an intense seismic activity began near Sobral with one event with magnitude 4,2mb on May 21. Since the start of its seismic activity, all events were recorded by the SBBR station (located on EMBRAPA Caprinos Farm), which operates in the region since August 2007. After this event, monitoring the seismic activity was carried out with the deployment of a local three component digital seismographic network, from June 5, 2008 until September 24. Initially, this network was composed of six seismographic stations. Later additional five stations were deployed until August 26 2008. This local network detected approximately 2,800 earthquakes. In this study we analyzed 581 earthquakes recorded by at least three stations for hypocentral and focal mechanism determination, and to contribute to a better explanation of the seismicity which in this region. To determine the hypocenters, we used a half-space model, with vP = 6,00 km/s and vP/vS = 1,71. From the hypocentral determination, it was revealed an active seismic zone with depth ranging between 1 and 8 km, 6 km long in E - W direction. The determination of fault planes and focal mechanism was obtained using the programs FPFIT and PLAN, which allowed comparison between their respective results in order to obtain more accurate results. A set of 24 earthquakes were selected to determine fault using PLAN planes and focal mechanisms using FPFIT. With the aid of detailed map of hypocenters this set, it was possible to identify three structures. Therefore, the set of 24 earthquakes were divided into three subsets. The type of mechanism was predominantly strike-slip with a dextral direction. Although the region has two tectonic structures near the site of the study area: the Café- Ipueiras Fault (normal fault) and the Sobral-Pedro II Lineament (dextral strike-slip fault) it was not possible to correlate the seismicity founded with those structures

Brunnian and Efimov N-Body States

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Digital filtering of oscillations intrinsic to transmission line modeling based on lumped parameters

A correction procedure based on digital signal processing theory is proposed to smooth the numeric oscillations in electromagnetic transient simulation results from transmission line modeling based on an equivalent representation by lumped parameters. The proposed improvement to this well-known line representation is carried out with an Finite Impulse Response (FIR) digital filter used to exclude the high-frequency components associated with the spurious numeric oscillations. To prove the efficacy of this correction method, a well-established frequency-dependent line representation using state equations is modeled with an FIR filter included in the model. The results obtained from the state-space model with and without the FIR filtering are compared with the results simulated by a line model based on distributed parameters and inverse transforms. Finally, the line model integrated with the FIR filtering is also tested and validated based on simulations that include nonlinear and time-variable elements. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cohomology ring of the brst operator associated to the sum of two pure spinors

In the study of the Type II superstring, it is useful to consider the BRST complex associated to the sum of two pure spinors. The cohomology of this complex is an infinite-dimensional vector space. It is also a finite-dimensional algebra over the algebra of functions of a single pure spinor. In this paper we study the multiplicative structure. © 2013 World Scientific Publishing Company.