Which is the optimal sampling strategy for habitat suitability modelling

Designing an efficient sampling strategy is of crucial importance for habitat suitability modelling. This paper compares four such strategies, namely, 'random', 'regular', 'proportional-stratified' and 'equal -stratified'- to investigate (1) how they affect prediction accuracy and (2) how sensitive they are to sample size. In order to compare them, a virtual species approach (Ecol. Model. 145 (2001) 111) in a real landscape, based on reliable data, was chosen. The distribution of the virtual species was sampled 300 times using each of the four strategies in four sample sizes. The sampled data were then fed into a GLM to make two types of prediction: (1) habitat suitability and (2) presence/ absence. Comparing the predictions to the known distribution of the virtual species allows model accuracy to be assessed. Habitat suitability predictions were assessed by Pearson's correlation coefficient and presence/absence predictions by Cohen's K agreement coefficient. The results show the 'regular' and 'equal-stratified' sampling strategies to be the most accurate and most robust. We propose the following characteristics to improve sample design: (1) increase sample size, (2) prefer systematic to random sampling and (3) include environmental information in the design'

Batch effect confounding leads to strong bias in performance estimates obtained by cross-validation.

BACKGROUND: With the large amount of biological data that is currently publicly available, many investigators combine multiple data sets to increase the sample size and potentially also the power of their analyses. However, technical differences ("batch effects") as well as differences in sample composition between the data sets may significantly affect the ability to draw generalizable conclusions from such studies. FOCUS: The current study focuses on the construction of classifiers, and the use of cross-validation to estimate their performance. In particular, we investigate the impact of batch effects and differences in sample composition between batches on the accuracy of the classification performance estimate obtained via cross-validation. The focus on estimation bias is a main difference compared to previous studies, which have mostly focused on the predictive performance and how it relates to the presence of batch effects. DATA: We work on simulated data sets. To have realistic intensity distributions, we use real gene expression data as the basis for our simulation. Random samples from this expression matrix are selected and assigned to group 1 (e.g., 'control') or group 2 (e.g., 'treated'). We introduce batch effects and select some features to be differentially expressed between the two groups. We consider several scenarios for our study, most importantly different levels of confounding between groups and batch effects. METHODS: We focus on well-known classifiers: logistic regression, Support Vector Machines (SVM), k-nearest neighbors (kNN) and Random Forests (RF). Feature selection is performed with the Wilcoxon test or the lasso. Parameter tuning and feature selection, as well as the estimation of the prediction performance of each classifier, is performed within a nested cross-validation scheme. The estimated classification performance is then compared to what is obtained when applying the classifier to independent data.

Uso de la estadística en la oncología y la hematología

En este artículo abordamos el uso y la importancia de las herramientas estadísticas que se utilizan principalmente en los estudios médicos del ámbito de la oncología y la hematología, pero aplicables a muchos otros campos tanto médicos como experimentales o industriales. El objetivo del presente trabajo es presentar de una manera clara y precisa la metodología estadística necesaria para analizar los datos obtenidos en los estudios rigurosa y concisamente en cuanto a las hipótesis de trabajo planteadas por los investigadores. La medida de la respuesta al tratamiento elegidas en al tipo de estudio elegido determinarán los métodos estadísticos que se utilizarán durante el análisis de los datos del estudio y también el tamaño de muestra. Mediante la correcta aplicación del análisis estadístico y de una adecuada planificación se puede determinar si la relación encontrada entre la exposición a un tratamiento y un resultado es casual o por el contrario, está sujeto a una relación no aleatoria que podría establecer una relación de causalidad. Hemos estudiado los principales tipos de diseño de los estudios médicos más utilizados, tales como ensayos clínicos y estudios observacionales (cohortes, casos y controles, estudios de prevalencia y estudios ecológicos). También se presenta una sección sobre el cálculo del tamaño muestral de los estudios y cómo calcularlo, ¿Qué prueba estadística debe utilizarse?, los aspectos sobre fuerza del efecto ¿odds ratio¿ (OR) y riesgo relativo (RR), el análisis de supervivencia. Se presentan ejemplos en la mayoría de secciones del artículo y bibliografía más relevante.

Host genetic determinants of spontaneous hepatitis C clearance

Acute infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) induces a wide range of innate and adaptive immune responses. A total of 20-50% of acutely HCV-infected individuals permanently control the virus, referred to as 'spontaneous hepatitis C clearance', while the infection progresses to chronic hepatitis C in the majority of cases. Numerous studies have examined host genetic determinants of hepatitis C infection outcome and revealed the influence of genetic polymorphisms of human leukocyte antigens, killer immunoglobulin-like receptors, chemokines, interleukins and interferon-stimulated genes on spontaneous hepatitis C clearance. However, most genetic associations were not confirmed in independent cohorts, revealed opposing results in diverse populations or were limited by varying definitions of hepatitis C outcomes or small sample size. Coordinated efforts are needed in the search for key genetic determinants of spontaneous hepatitis C clearance that include well-conducted candidate genetic and genome-wide association studies, direct sequencing and follow-up functional studies.

Pediatric morphea (localized scleroderma): review of 136 patients.

BACKGROUND: Morphea is an autoimmune inflammatory sclerosing disorder that may cause permanent functional disability and disfigurement. OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine the clinical features of morphea in a large pediatric cohort. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective chart review of 136 pediatric patients with morphea from one center, 1989 to 2006. RESULTS: Most children showed linear morphea, with a disproportionately high number of Caucasian and female patients. Two patients with rapidly progressing generalized or extensive linear morphea and arthralgias developed restrictive pulmonary disease. Initial oral corticosteroid treatment and long-term methotrexate administration stabilized and/or led to disease improvement in most patients with aggressive disease. LIMITATIONS: Retrospective analysis, relatively small sample size, and risk of a selected referral population to the single site are limitations. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest an increased prevalence of morphea in Caucasian girls, and support methotrexate as treatment for problematic forms. Visceral manifestations rarely occur; the presence of progressive problematic cutaneous disease and arthralgias should trigger closer patient monitoring.

Blood pressure and LDL-cholesterol targets for prevention of recurrent strokes and cognitive decline in the hypertensive patient: design of the European Society of Hypertension-Chinese Hypertension League Stroke in Hypertension Optimal Treatment randomized trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The SBP values to be achieved by antihypertensive therapy in order to maximize reduction of cardiovascular outcomes are unknown; neither is it clear whether in patients with a previous cardiovascular event, the optimal values are lower than in the low-to-moderate risk hypertensive patients, or a more cautious blood pressure (BP) reduction should be obtained. Because of the uncertainty whether 'the lower the better' or the 'J-curve' hypothesis is correct, the European Society of Hypertension and the Chinese Hypertension League have promoted a randomized trial comparing antihypertensive treatment strategies aiming at three different SBP targets in hypertensive patients with a recent stroke or transient ischaemic attack. As the optimal level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level is also unknown in these patients, LDL-C-lowering has been included in the design. PROTOCOL DESIGN: The European Society of Hypertension-Chinese Hypertension League Stroke in Hypertension Optimal Treatment trial is a prospective multinational, randomized trial with a 3 × 2 factorial design comparing: three different SBP targets (1, <145-135; 2, <135-125; 3, <125 mmHg); two different LDL-C targets (target A, 2.8-1.8; target B, <1.8 mmol/l). The trial is to be conducted on 7500 patients aged at least 65 years (2500 in Europe, 5000 in China) with hypertension and a stroke or transient ischaemic attack 1-6 months before randomization. Antihypertensive and statin treatments will be initiated or modified using suitable registered agents chosen by the investigators, in order to maintain patients within the randomized SBP and LDL-C windows. All patients will be followed up every 3 months for BP and every 6 months for LDL-C. Ambulatory BP will be measured yearly. OUTCOMES: Primary outcome is time to stroke (fatal and non-fatal). Important secondary outcomes are: time to first major cardiovascular event; cognitive decline (Montreal Cognitive Assessment) and dementia. All major outcomes will be adjudicated by committees blind to randomized allocation. A Data and Safety Monitoring Board has open access to data and can recommend trial interruption for safety. SAMPLE SIZE CALCULATION: It has been calculated that 925 patients would reach the primary outcome after a mean 4-year follow-up, and this should provide at least 80% power to detect a 25% stroke difference between SBP targets and a 20% difference between LDL-C targets.

A systematic review of longitudinal population-based studies on the predictors of smoking cessation in adolescent and young adult smokers.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the determinants of self-initiated smoking cessation of duration of at least 6 months as identified in longitudinal population-based studies of adolescent and young adult smokers. METHODS: A systematic search of the PubMed and EMBASE databases using smoking, tobacco, cessation, quit and stop as keywords was performed. Limits included articles related to humans, in English, published between January 1984 and August 2010, and study population aged 10-29 years. A total of 4502 titles and 871 abstracts were reviewed independently by 2 and 3 reviewers, respectively. Nine articles were retained for data abstraction. Data on study location, timeframe, duration of follow-up, number of data collection points, sample size, age/grade of participants, number of quitters, smoking status at baseline, definition of cessation, covariates and analytic method were abstracted from each article. The number of studies that reported a statistically significant association between each determinant investigated and cessation were tabulated, from among all studies that assessed the determinant. RESULTS: Despite heterogeneity in methods across studies, five factors robustly predicted quitting across studies in which the factor was investigated: not having friends who smoke, not having intentions to smoke in the future, resisting peer pressure to smoke, being older at first use of cigarette and having negative beliefs about smoking. CONCLUSIONS: The literature on longitudinal predictors of cessation in adolescent and young adult smokers is not well developed. Cessation interventions for this population will remain less than optimally effective until there is a solid evidence base on which to develop interventions.

Radiation therapy and concurrent plus adjuvant temsirolimus (CCI-779) versus chemoirradiation with temozolomide in newly diagnosed glioblastoma without methylation of the MGMT gene promoter.

Background: Preclinical data indicate activity of mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors and synergistic activity together with radiotherapy in glioblastoma. The aim of this trial is to assess the therapeutic activity of temsirolimus (CCI-779), an intravenous mTOR inhibitor, in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma with unmethylated O6 methlyguanine-DNA-methlytransferase (MGMT)promoter. Methods: Patients (n=257) with newly diagnosed glioblastoma after open surgical biopsy or resection fulfilling basic eligibility criteria underwent a central MGMT promoter analysis using quantitative methylation specific PCR. Patients with glioblastoma harboring an unmethylated MGMT promoter (n=111) were randomized 1:1 between radiotherapy (60 Gy; 5 times 2 Gy per week) plus concomitant and six cycles of maintenance temozolomide or radiotherapy plus weekly temsirolimus at 25 mg flat dose to be continued until progression or undue toxicity. Primary endpoint was overall survival at 12 months (OS12). Sample size of the investigational treatment arm required 54 patients to assess adequacy of temsirolimus activity set at 80%. More than 38 patients alive at 12 months in the per protocol population was considered a positive signal. A control arm of 54 patients treated with the standard of care was implemented to evaluate the assumptions on OS12. Results: Between December 2009 and October 2012, 111 pts in 14 centers were randomized and treated. Median age was 55 and 58 years in the temsirolimus and standard arm, respectively. Most patients (95.5%) had a WHO performance status of 0 or 1. Both therapies were properly administered with a median of 13 cycles of maintenance temsirolimus. In the per protocolpopulation, exactly 38 patients treated with temsirolimus (out of 54 eligible) reached OS12. In the intention to treat population OS12 was 72.2% [95% CI (58.2, 82.2)] in the temozolomide arm and 69.6% [95% CI (55.8, 79.9) in the temsirolimus arm [HR=1.16 95% CI (0.77, 1.76), p=0.47]. Conclusions: The therapeutic activity of temsirolimus in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma with an unmethylated MGMT promoter is too low.

Antibody-mediated and cellular immune responses induced in naive volunteers by vaccination with long synthetic peptides derived from the Plasmodium vivax circumsporozoite protein.

Plasmodium vivax circumsporozoite (CS) protein is a leading malaria vaccine candidate. We describe the characterization of specific immune responses induced in 21 malaria-naive volunteers vaccinated with long synthetic peptides derived from the CS protein formulated in Montanide ISA 720. Both antibody- and cell-mediated immune responses were analyzed. Antibodies were predominantly of IgG1 and IgG3 isotypes, recognized parasite proteins on the immunofluorescent antibody test, and partially blocked sporozoite invasion of hepatoma cell lines in vitro. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells from most volunteers (94%) showed IFN-γ production in vitro upon stimulation with both long signal peptide and short peptides containing CD8+ T-cell epitopes. The relatively limited sample size did not allow conclusions about HLA associations with the immune responses observed. In summary, the inherent safety and tolerability together with strong antibody responses, invasion blocking activity, and the IFN-γ production induced by these vaccine candidates warrants further testing in a phase II clinical trial.

Magnetic resonance imaging correlates of first-episode psychosis in young adult male patients: combined analysis of grey and white matter.

Background: Several patterns of grey and white matter changes have been separately described in young adults with first-episode psychosis. Concomitant investigation of grey and white matter densities in patients with first-episode psychosis without other psychiatric comorbidities that include all relevant imaging markers could provide clues to the neurodevelopmental hypothesis in schizophrenia. Methods: We recruited patients with first-episode psychosis diagnosed according to the DSM-IV-TR and matched controls. All participants underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Voxel-based morphometry (VBM) analysis and mean diffusivity voxel-based analysis (VBA) were used for grey matter data. Fractional anisotropy and axial, radial and mean diffusivity were analyzed using tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) for white matter data. Results: We included 15 patients and 16 controls. The mean diffusivity VBA showed significantly greater mean diffusivity in the first-episode psychosis than in the control group in the lingual gyrus bilaterally, the occipital fusiform gyrus bilaterally, the right lateral occipital gyrus and the right inferior temporal gyrus. Moreover, the TBSS analysis revealed a lower fractional anisotropy in the first-episode psychosis than in the control group in the genu of the corpus callosum, minor forceps, corticospinal tract, right superior longitudinal fasciculus, left middle cerebellar peduncle, left inferior longitudinal fasciculus and the posterior part of the fronto-occipital fasciculus. This analysis also revealed greater radial diffusivity in the first-episode psychosis than in the control group in the right corticospinal tract, right superior longitudinal fasciculus and left middle cerebellar peduncle. Limitations: The modest sample size and the absence of women in our series could limit the impact of our results. Conclusion: Our results highlight the structural vulnerability of grey matter in posterior areas of the brain among young adult male patients with first-episode psychosis. Moreover, the concomitant greater radial diffusivity within several regions already revealed by the fractional anisotropy analysis supports the idea of a late myelination in patients with first-episode psychosis.

Test result-based sampling: an efficient design for estimating the accuracy of patient safety indicators.

OBJECTIVE: Accuracy studies of Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs) are critical but limited by the large samples required due to low occurrence of most events. We tested a sampling design based on test results (verification-biased sampling [VBS]) that minimizes the number of subjects to be verified. METHODS: We considered 3 real PSIs, whose rates were calculated using 3 years of discharge data from a university hospital and a hypothetical screen of very rare events. Sample size estimates, based on the expected sensitivity and precision, were compared across 4 study designs: random and VBS, with and without constraints on the size of the population to be screened. RESULTS: Over sensitivities ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 and PSI prevalence levels ranging from 0.02 to 0.2, the optimal VBS strategy makes it possible to reduce sample size by up to 60% in comparison with simple random sampling. For PSI prevalence levels below 1%, the minimal sample size required was still over 5000. CONCLUSIONS: Verification-biased sampling permits substantial savings in the required sample size for PSI validation studies. However, sample sizes still need to be very large for many of the rarer PSIs.

Thermogravimetric Analysis of Carbonate Aggregate, HR-336, 1994

Research has shown that one of the major contributing factors in early joint deterioration of portland cement concrete (PCC) pavement is the quality of the coarse aggregate. Conventional physical and freeze/thaw tests are slow and not satisfactory in evaluating aggregate quality. In the last ten years the Iowa DOT has been evaluating X-ray analysis and other new technologies to predict aggregate durability in PCC pavement. The objective of this research is to evaluate thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) of carbonate aggregate. The TGA testing has been conducted with a TA 2950 Thermogravimetric Analyzer. The equipment is controlled by an IBM compatible computer. A "TA Hi-RES" (trademark) software package allows for rapid testing while retaining high resolution. The carbon dioxide is driven off the dolomite fraction between 705 deg C and 745 deg C and off the calcite fraction between 905 deg C and 940 deg C. The graphical plot of the temperature and weight loss using the same sample size and test procedure demonstrates that the test is very accurate and repeatable. A substantial number of both dolomites and limestones (calcites) have been subjected to TGA testing. The slopes of the weight loss plot prior to the dolomite and calcite transitions does correlate with field performance. The noncarbonate fraction, which correlates to the acid insolubles, can be determined by TGA for most calcites and some dolomites. TGA has provided information that can be used to help predict the quality of carbonate aggregate.

EV01: a phase I trial in healthy HIV negative volunteers to evaluate a clade C HIV vaccine, NYVAC-C undertaken by the EuroVacc Consortium.

NYVAC-C (vP2010), a recombinant vector expressing HIV subtype C gag, pol, env and nef antigens, was tested in a phase I study in healthy, HIV negative volunteers in London and Lausanne. Twenty-four participants were randomised to receive NYVAC-C (20) or matching placebo (4) at weeks 0 and 4, and assessed for safety and immunogenicity over 48 weeks. There were no serious adverse events, and no clinical or laboratory abnormalities or other events that led to withdrawal, interruption or dose reduction of the NYVAC-C/placebo. Half of the 10 assessed responded in the ELISpot assay under stringent criteria, which informed the sample size for a DNA-NYVAC-C comparison to NYVAC-C alone.

Gait and foot clearance parameters obtained using shoe-worn inertial sensors in a large-population sample of older adults

In order to distinguish dysfunctional gait; clinicians require a measure of reference gait parameters for each population. This study provided normative values for widely used parameters in more than 1400 able-bodied adults over the age of 65. We also measured the foot clearance parameters (i.e., height of the foot above ground during swing phase) that are crucial to understand the complex relationship between gait and falls as well as obstacle negotiation strategies. We used a shoe-worn inertial sensor on each foot and previously validated algorithms to extract the gait parameters during 20 m walking trials in a corridor at a self-selected pace. We investigated the difference of the gait parameters between male and female participants by considering the effect of age and height factors. Besides; we examined the inter-relation of the clearance parameters with the gait speed. The sample size and breadth of gait parameters provided in this study offer a unique reference resource for the researchers.

Investigation of Electromagnetic Gauges for Determination of In-Place Density of HMA Pavements, TR-576, 2009

This study evaluated the use of electromagnetic gauges to determine the adjusted densities of HMA pavements. Field measurements were taken with two electromagnetic gauges, the Pavement Quality Indicator (PQI) 301 and the Pavetracker Plus 2701B. Seven projects were included in the study with 3 to 5 consecutive paving days. For each day/lot 20 randomly selected locations were tested along with seven core locations. The analysis of PaveTracker and PQI density consisted of determining which factors are statistically significant, and core density residuals and a regression analysis of core as a function of PaveTracker and PQI readings. The following key conclusions can be stated: 1. Core density, traffic and binder content were all found to be significant for both electromagnetic gauges studied, 2. Core density residuals are normally distributed and centered at zero for both electromagnetic gauges, 3. For PaveTracker readings, statistically one third of the lots do not have an intercept that is zero and two thirds of the lots do not rule out a scaler correction factor of zero, 4. For PQI readings, statistically the 95% confidence interval rules out the intercept being zero for all seven projects and six of the seven projects do not rule out the scaler correction factor being zero, 5. The PQI 301 gauge should not be used for quality control or quality assurance, and 6. The Pavetracker 2701B gauge can be used for quality control but not quality assurance. This study has found that with the limited sample size, the adjusted density equations for both electromagnetic gauges were determined to be inadequate. The PaveTracker Plus 2701B was determined to be better than the PQI 301. The PaveTracker 2701B could still be applicable for quality assurance if the number of core locations per day is reduced and supplemented with additional PaveTracker 2701B readings. Further research should be done to determine the minimum number of core locations to calibrate the gauges each day/lot and the number of additional PaveTracker 2701B readings required.