Environmental assessment and biomonitoring of the Twelve Mile Creek watershed, Niagara Peninsula, Ontario

In light of the heavy reliance of the people of the Niagara Peninsula on the T\\'elve Mile Creek (TMC) watershed for recreational activities and for municipal and industrial uses ( e.g., drinking water, shipping and discharge of effluents), it was deemed prudent to assess the envirol1tnental health of the system by analysing the sediments total and exchangeable metal, and TPH contents. The MOEE has set guidelines with limits for the protection and management of aquatic sediments, and the sediments from the headwaters of the TMC have total metal and TPH (subset of O&G) contents well below the lower provincial limits. Areas of environmental concern where total metal contents in sediments, either individually or collectively, exceed the guideline, are the south side of Lake Gibson, the Old WeIland Canal, a segment of TMC just south of the QEW and Martindale Pond. The total metal content of sediments does not in all instances identify areas of biological concern. Instead, it has been found that the exchangeable metal fraction of sediments is a better indicator of metal availability and thus potential accumulation in organisms. In some instances, the exchangeable metal fraction agrees with the total metal fraction defining areas of environmental concern, but it does vary from site to site reflecting the natural variability of the ambient environment. Overall, the exchangeable metal fraction of sediments appears to be a better indicator of anthropogenic pollution and ecosystem impact. A histochemical study of Anodon.ta sp., Elliptio sp. and zebra mussels (Dreissena polyn'101pha) was done in conjunction with passive biomonitoring of zebra and quagga mussels (Dreissena bugensis) from the Twelve Mile Creek watershed and Lake 51. Clair (Jeanette's Creek, Chatham, Ontario). The highest concentrations of divalent metals such as Cu, Ni, Cd, and Zn, and trivalent Al appear to accumulate in gill and kidney tissues. Metal contents of organ tissues in Anodonta sp. vary with size class. Organ metal content varies among size classes, thus requiring consideration of size in biomonitoring studies. Shucked zebra and quagga mussel tissues, exhibited similar size class to Al content trends. In addition they reflected the Al content trends of top (approximately 10 cm) most sediments in the Twelve Mile Creek watershed. Quagga mussels appear to have higher Al concentrations than zebra mussels, thus suggesting that quagga mussels may be better passive biomonitors of AI. Cd content in zebra mussel tissues, seemed to increase with size class trends. This was not demonstrated in the quagga mussel tissues. This suggests that Cd may be regulated by quagga mussels and not by zebra mussels, and that zebra mussels may be better passivebiomonitors of Cd than are quagga mussels. Zebra mussel, quagga mussel, Anodonta sp., and Elliptio sp. were used in a two part, active (translocated) biomonitoring study of the Twelve Mile Creek watershed. There was no statistical difference in death rates between zebra and quagga mussels after 65 days of biomonitoring. However there does appear to be a difference of death rates between sites. Unfortunately the data base did not permit us to differentiate between sites. Relative to Port Colborne Harbour (Port Colborne, Ontario), the Twelve Mile Creek watershed appears to be elevated in bioavailable AI. An area near the terminus of the Twelve Mile Creek appears to be an area of environmental concern since mussels seemed to have accumulated relatively large concentrations of Cd, Zn, and Pb. In addition to possible metal loading from a nearby outfalls, or possible upstream outfalls, road salt runoff from storm sewers may have contributed to metal accumulation through cation exchanges processes. Similar trends in cumulative quagga mussel metal concentrations during the two time periods (65 and 159 days), suggest that quagga mussels may reach equilibrium within 65 days of translocation. Differences in bioaccumulated metal concentrations of the two dreissenid species demonstrate that active biomonitoring studies must use a variety of organisms to adequately assess the environmental situation of specific waterways and/or bodies.

Proprioceptive Neuromuscular Facilitation of the Wrist Flexors

The present study examined a wrist extension-to-flexion contraction pattern that was theorized to result in proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation. However, the “reversal of antagonists” contraction pattern may have, alternatively, interfered with motor learning-related increases in strength. Participants (N=24) were matched on predicted strength and randomly assigned to either the control or experimental group. Training occurred during three test sessions within a one-week period. Retention and transfer (crossed-condition) tests were administered during a fourth test session two- weeks later. Both groups exhibited comparable increases in strength (20.2%) and decreases in muscle coactivation (35.2%), which were retained and transferred. Decreases in error and variability of the torque traces were associated with parallel decreases in variability of muscle activity. The reversal of antagonists technique did not interfere with motor learning-related increases in strength and decreases in variability. However, the more complex contraction pattern failed to result in proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation of strength.

Localization and function of the endocannabinoid system throughout the retinogeniculate pathway of vervet monkeys

Le système endocannabinoïde (eCB) est présent dans le système nerveux central (SNC) de mammifères, incluant la rétine, et est responsable de la régulation de nombreux processus physiologiques. Bien que la présence du récepteur cannabinoïde de type 1 (CB1R) a bien été documenté dans la rétine de rongeurs et primates, il y a encore une controverse quant à la présence du récepteur cannabinoïde de type 2 (CB2R) au niveau du SNC. En utilisant la microscopie confocale, nous sommes les premiers à signaler les patrons d’expression du CB2R dans la rétine de singe. Nos résultats démontrent que le CB2R est exprimé exclusivement dans les cellules de Müller de la rétine du singe. En outre, nous avons comparé les différents patrons d’expression du système eCB dans la rétine de la souris, du toupaye, ainsi que du singe vervet et macaque. Nous rapportons que les distributions de CB1R, FAAH (fatty acid amid hydrolase), MAGL (monoacylglycerol lipase) et DAGLα (diacylglycerol lipase alpha) sont hautement conservées parmi ces espèces alors que CB2R et NAPE-PLD (N-acyl phosphatidylethanolamine phospholipase D) présentent différents profils d'expression. CB2R n'a pas été détecté dans les cellules neuronales de la rétine des primates. L’immunoréactivité de NAPE-PLD est présente dans les couches de la rétine de souris et toupayes, mais a été limitée à la couche des photorécepteurs des singes vervet et macaque. Pour étudier les corrélats neuronaux et le rôle de la signalisation du système eCB dans la rétine, nous avons établi un protocole standard pour l'électrorétinographie (ERG), puis enregistré la réponse ERG de la rétine après le blocage des récepteurs avec des antagonistes spécifiques pour CB1R (AM251) et CB2R (AM630). Comparé au témoin, dans des conditions photopiques, et à certaines intensités faibles du stimulus, le blocage de CB1R diminue l'amplitude de l'onde-b, alors qu’à des intensités plus élevées, le blocage de CB2R augmente l'amplitude des deux-ondes a et b. De plus, le blocage des récepteurs cannabinoïdes provoque une augmentation de la latence des deux ondes a et b. Dans des conditions d’adaptation à l'obscurité, le blocage de CB1R et CB2R réduit l’amplitudes de l'onde a seulement à des intensités plus élevées et réduit l’onde b à intensités plus faibles. Des augmentations significatives de latence ont été observées dans les deux cas. Ces résultats indiquent que les récepteurs CB1 et CB2 chez les primates non humains sont impliqués dans la fonction rétinienne conditions photopiques. En outre, nous avons évalué le profil d'expression du CB1R, de FAAH et de NAPE-PLD au-delà de la rétine dans le corps géniculé latéral des singes et nous rapportons pour la première fois que CB1R et FAAH sont exprimés davantage dans les couches magnocellulaires. La NAPE-PLD a été localisée à travers les couches magno- et parvocellulaires. Aucune de ces composantes n’est exprimée dans les couches koniocellulaires. Ces résultats nous aident à mieux comprendre les effets des cannabinoïdes sur le système visuel qui pourraient nous mener à trouver éventuellement de nouvelles cibles thérapeutiques.

Sea Surface Temperature-Convection Relationship in Tropical Oceans with Special Emphasis to Intraseasonal Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon

The SST convection relation over tropical ocean and its impact on the South Asian monsoon is the first part of this thesis. Understanding the complicated relation between SST and convection is important for better prediction of the variability of the Indian monsoon in subseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales. Improved global data sets from satellite scatterometer observations of SST, precipitation and refined reanalysis of global wind fields have made it possible to do a comprehensive study of the SST convection relation. Interaction of the monsoon and Indian ocean has been discussed. A coupled feedback process between SST and the Active-Break cycle of the Asian summer monsoon is a central theme of the thesis. The relation between SST and convection is very important in the field of numerical modeling of tropical rainfall. It is well known that models generally do very well simulating rainfall in areas of tropical convergence zones but are found unable to do satisfactory simulation in the monsoon areas. Thus in this study we critically examined the different mechanisms of generation of deep convection over these two distinct regions.The study reported in chapter 3 has shown that SST - convection relation over the warm pool regions of Indian and west Pacific oceans (monsoon areas) is in such a way that convection increases with SST in the SST range 26-29 C and for SST higher than 29-30 C convection decreases with increase of SST (it is called Waliser type). It is found that convection is induced in areas with SST gradients in the warm pool areas of Indian and west Pacific oceans. Once deep convection is initiated in the south of the warmest region of warm pool, the deep tropospheric heating by the latent heat released in the convective clouds produces strong low level wind fields (Low level Jet - LLJ) on the equatorward side of the warm pool and both the convection and wind are found to grow through a positive feedback process. Thus SST through its gradient acts only as an initiator of convection. The central region of the warm pool has very small SST gradients and large values of convection are associated with the cyclonic vorticity of the LLJ in the atmospheric boundary layer. The conditionally unstable atmosphere in the tropics is favorable for the production of deep convective clouds.

Yield gap analysis and assessment of climate-induced yield trends of irrigated rice in selected provinces of the Philippines

This study describes a combined empirical/modeling approach to assess the possible impact of climate variability on rice production in the Philippines. We collated climate data of the last two decades (1985-2002) as well as yield statistics of six provinces of the Philippines, selected along a North-South gradient. Data from the climate information system of NASA were used as input parameters of the model ORYZA2000 to determine potential yields and, in the next steps, the yield gaps defined as the difference between potential and actual yields. Both simulated and actual yields of irrigated rice varied strongly between years. However, no climate-driven trends were apparent and the variability in actual yields showed no correlation with climatic parameters. The observed variation in simulated yields was attributable to seasonal variations in climate (dry/wet season) and to climatic differences between provinces and agro-ecological zones. The actual yield variation between provinces was not related to differences in the climatic yield potential but rather to soil and management factors. The resulting yield gap was largest in remote and infrastructurally disfavored provinces (low external input use) with a high production potential (high solar radiation and day-night temperature differences). In turn, the yield gap was lowest in central provinces with good market access but with a relatively low climatic yield potential. We conclude that neither long-term trends nor the variability of the climate can explain current rice yield trends and that agroecological, seasonal, and management effects are over-riding any possible climatic variations. On the other hand the lack of a climate-driven trend in the present situation may be superseded by ongoing climate change in the future.

Tropical and extratropical responses of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation to a sustained weakening of the MOC

The tropospheric response to a forced shutdown of the North Atlantic Ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is investigated in a coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM [the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3)]. The strength of the boreal winter North Atlantic storm track is significantly increased and penetrates much farther into western Europe. The changes in the storm track are shown to be consistent with the changes in near-surface baroclinicity, which can be linked to changes in surface temperature gradients near regions of sea ice formation and in the open ocean. Changes in the SST of the tropical Atlantic are linked to a strengthening of the subtropical jet to the north, which, combined with the enhanced storm track, leads to a pronounced split in the jet structure over Europe. EOF analysis and stationary box indices methods are used to analyze changes to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). There is no consistent signal of a change in the variability of the NAO, and while the changes in the mean flow project onto the positive NAO phase, they are significantly different from it. However, there is a clear eastward shift of the NAO pattern in the shutdown run, and this potentially has implications for ocean circulation and for the interpretation of proxy paleoclimate records.

Evaluation of the sea ice simulation in a new coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model (HadGEM1)

[ 1] A rapid increase in the variety, quality, and quantity of observations in polar regions is leading to a significant improvement in the understanding of sea ice dynamic and thermodynamic processes and their representation in global climate models. We assess the simulation of sea ice in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) against the latest available observations. The HadGEM1 sea ice component uses elastic-viscous-plastic dynamics, multiple ice thickness categories, and zero-layer thermodynamics. The model evaluation is focused on the mean state of the key variables of ice concentration, thickness, velocity, and albedo. The model shows good agreement with observational data sets. The variability of the ice forced by the North Atlantic Oscillation is also found to agree with observations.

Development and experimental identification of a biomechanical model of the trunk for functional electrical stimulation control in paraplegia

Objectives. Theoretic modeling and experimental studies suggest that functional electrical stimulation (FES) can improve trunk balance in spinal cord injured subjects. This can have a positive impact on daily life, increasing the volume of bimanual workspace, improving sitting posture, and wheelchair propulsion. A closed loop controller for the stimulation is desirable, as it can potentially decrease muscle fatigue and offer better rejection to disturbances. This paper proposes a biomechanical model of the human trunk, and a procedure for its identification, to be used for the future development of FES controllers. The advantage over previous models resides in the simplicity of the solution proposed, which makes it possible to identify the model just before a stimulation session ( taking into account the variability of the muscle response to the FES). Materials and Methods. The structure of the model is based on previous research on FES and muscle physiology. Some details could not be inferred from previous studies, and were determined from experimental data. Experiments with a paraplegic volunteer were conducted in order to measure the moments exerted by the trunk-passive tissues and artificially stimulated muscles. Data for model identification and validation also were collected. Results. Using the proposed structure and identification procedure, the model could adequately reproduce the moments exerted during the experiments. The study reveals that the stimulated trunk extensors can exert maximal moment when the trunk is in the upright position. In contrast, previous studies show that able-bodied subjects can exert maximal trunk extension when flexed forward. Conclusions. The proposed model and identification procedure are a successful first step toward the development of a model-based controller for trunk FES. The model also gives information on the trunk in unique conditions, normally not observable in able-bodied subjects (ie, subject only to extensor muscles contraction).

Trends in the start of the wet season over Africa

A quarter of a century of daily rainfall data from the Global Telecommunications System are used to define the temporal and spatial variability of the start of the wet season over Africa and surrounding extreme south of Europe and parts of the Middle East. From 1978 to 2002, the start of the wet season arrived later in the year for the majority of the region, as time progressed. In some parts of the continent, there was an annual increase in the start date of up to 4 days per year. On average, the start of the wet season arrived 9–21 days later from 1978 to 2002, depending on the threshold used to define the start of the rains (varying from 10–30 mm over 2 days, with no dry period in the following 10 days). It is noted that the inter-annual variability of the start of the wet season is high with the range of start dates varying on average from 116 to 142 days dependent on the threshold used to determine the start date. These results may have important implications for agriculturists on all levels (from the individual farmer to those responsible for regional food supply), as knowledge of potential future climate changes starts to play an increasingly important role in the agricultural decision-making process, such as sowing and harvesting times.

The impact of real estate on the terminal wealth of the UK mixed-asset portfolio

The argument for the inclusion of real estate in the mixed-asset portfolio has concentrated on examining its effect in reducing the portfolio risk - the time series standard deviation (TSSD), mainly using ex-post time series data. However, the past as such is not really relevant to the long-term institutional investors, such as the insurance companies and pension funds, who are more concerned the terminal wealth (TW) of their investments and the variability of this wealth, the terminal wealth standard deviation (TWSD), since it is from the TW of their investment portfolio that policyholders and pensioners will derive their benefits. These kinds of investors with particular holding period requirements will be less concerned about the within period volatility of their portfolios and more by the possibility that their portfolio returns will fail to finance their liabilities. This variability in TW will be closely linked to the risk of shortfall in the quantity of assets needed to match the institution’s liabilities. The question remains therefore can real estate enhance the TW of the mixed-asset portfolio and/or reduce the variability of the TW. This paper uses annual data from the United Kingdom (UK) for the period 1972-2001 to test whether real estate is an asset class that not only reduces ex-post portfolio risk but also enhances portfolio TW and/or reduces the variability of TW.

New results on the thermodynamical properties of the climate system

In this paper the authors exploit two equivalent formulations of the average rate of material entropy production in the climate system to propose an approximate splitting between contributions due to vertical and eminently horizontal processes. This approach is based only on 2D radiative fields at the surface and at the top of atmosphere. Using 2D fields at the top of atmosphere alone, lower bounds to the rate of material entropy production and to the intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle are derived. By introducing a measure of the efficiency of the planetary system with respect to horizontal thermodynamic processes, it is possible to gain insight into a previous intuition on the possibility of defining a baroclinic heat engine extracting work from the meridional heat flux. The approximate formula of the material entropy production is verified and used for studying the global thermodynamic properties of climate models (CMs) included in the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI)/phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) dataset in preindustrial climate conditions. It is found that about 90% of the material entropy production is due to vertical processes such as convection, whereas the large-scale meridional heat transport contributes to only about 10% of the total. This suggests that the traditional two-box models used for providing a minimal representation of entropy production in planetary systems are not appropriate, whereas a basic—but conceptually correct—description can be framed in terms of a four-box model. The total material entropy production is typically 55 mW m−2 K−1, with discrepancies on the order of 5%, and CMs’ baroclinic efficiencies are clustered around 0.055. The lower bounds on the intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle featured by CMs are found to be around 1.0–1.5 W m−2, which implies that the derived inequality is rather stringent. When looking at the variability and covariability of the considered thermodynamic quantities, the agreement among CMs is worse, suggesting that the description of feedbacks is more uncertain. The contributions to material entropy production from vertical and horizontal processes are positively correlated, so that no compensation mechanism seems in place. Quite consistently among CMs, the variability of the efficiency of the system is a better proxy for variability of the entropy production due to horizontal processes than that of the large-scale heat flux. The possibility of providing constraints on the 3D dynamics of the fluid envelope based only on 2D observations of radiative fluxes seems promising for the observational study of planets and for testing numerical models.

Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model

The mechanisms involved in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) decadal variability and predictability over the last 50 years are analysed in the IPSL–CM5A–LR model using historical and initialised simulations. The initialisation procedure only uses nudging towards sea surface temperature anomalies with a physically based restoring coefficient. When compared to two independent AMOC reconstructions, both the historical and nudged ensemble simulations exhibit skill at reproducing AMOC variations from 1977 onwards, and in particular two maxima occurring respectively around 1978 and 1997. We argue that one source of skill is related to the large Mount Agung volcanic eruption starting in 1963, which reset an internal 20-year variability cycle in the North Atlantic in the model. This cycle involves the East Greenland Current intensity, and advection of active tracers along the subpolar gyre, which leads to an AMOC maximum around 15 years after the Mount Agung eruption. The 1997 maximum occurs approximately 20 years after the former one. The nudged simulations better reproduce this second maximum than the historical simulations. This is due to the initialisation of a cooling of the convection sites in the 1980s under the effect of a persistent North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) positive phase, a feature not captured in the historical simulations. Hence we argue that the 20-year cycle excited by the 1963 Mount Agung eruption together with the NAO forcing both contributed to the 1990s AMOC maximum. These results support the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic in the observations. Hindcasts following the CMIP5 protocol are launched from a nudged simulation every 5 years for the 1960–2005 period. They exhibit significant correlation skill score as compared to an independent reconstruction of the AMOC from 4-year lead-time average. This encouraging result is accompanied by increased correlation skills in reproducing the observed 2-m air temperature in the bordering regions of the North Atlantic as compared to non-initialized simulations. To a lesser extent, predicted precipitation tends to correlate with the nudged simulation in the tropical Atlantic. We argue that this skill is due to the initialisation and predictability of the AMOC in the present prediction system. The mechanisms evidenced here support the idea of volcanic eruptions as a pacemaker for internal variability of the AMOC. Together with the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic they propose a novel and complementary explanation for the AMOC variations over the last 50 years.

The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century

The boreal summer Asian monsoon has been evaluated in 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) and 22 CMIP3 GCM simulations of the late 20th Century. Diagnostics and skill metrics have been calculated to assess the time-mean, climatological annual cycle, interannual variability, and intraseasonal variability. Progress has been made in modeling these aspects of the monsoon, though there is no single model that best represents all of these aspects of the monsoon. The CMIP5 multi-model mean (MMM) is more skillful than the CMIP3 MMM for all diagnostics in terms of the skill of simulating pattern correlations with respect to observations. Additionally, for rainfall/convection the MMM outperforms the individual models for the time mean, the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon, and intraseasonal variability. The pattern correlation of the time (pentad) of monsoon peak and withdrawal is better simulated than that of monsoon onset. The onset of the monsoon over India is typically too late in the models. The extension of the monsoon over eastern China, Korea, and Japan is underestimated, while it is overestimated over the subtropical western/central Pacific Ocean. The anti-correlation between anomalies of all-India rainfall and Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature is overly strong in CMIP3 and typically too weak in CMIP5. For both the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection and the East Asian zonal wind-rainfall teleconnection, the MMM interannual rainfall anomalies are weak compared to observations. Though simulation of intraseasonal variability remains problematic, several models show improved skill at representing the northward propagation of convection and the development of the tilted band of convection that extends from India to the equatorial west Pacific. The MMM also well represents the space-time evolution of intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation anomalies. Caution is necessary when using GPCP and CMAP rainfall to validate (1) the time-mean rainfall, as there are systematic differences over ocean and land between these two data sets, and (2) the timing of monsoon withdrawal over India, where the smooth southward progression seen in India Meteorological Department data is better realized in CMAP data compared to GPCP data.

Response of the northern stratospheric polar vortex to the seasonal alignment of QBO phase transitions

This study considers the strength of the Northern Hemisphere Holton-Tan effect (HTE) in terms of the phase alignment of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with respect to the annual cycle. Using the ERA-40 Reanalysis, it is found that the early winter (Nov–Dec) and late winter (Feb–Mar) relation between QBO phase and the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex is optimized for subsets of the 44-year record that are chosen on the basis of the seasonality of QBO phase transitions at the 30 hPa level. The timing of phase transitions serves as a proxy for changes in the vertical structure of the QBO over the whole depth of the tropical stratosphere. The statistical significance of the Nov–Dec (Feb–Mar) HTE is greatest when 30 hPa QBO phase transitions occur 9–14 (4–9) months prior to the January of the NH winter in question. This suggests that there exists for both early and late winter a vertical structure of tropical stratospheric winds that is most effective at influencing the interannual variability of the polar vortex, and that an early (late) winter HTE is associated with an early (late) progression of QBO phase towards that structure. It is also shown that the seasonality of QBO phase transitions at 30 hPa varies on a decadal timescale, with transitions during the first half of the calendar year being relatively more common during the first half of the tropical radiosonde wind record. Combining these two results suggests that decadal changes in HTE strength could result from the changing seasonality of QBO phase transitions. Citation: Anstey, J. A., and T. G. Shepherd (2008), Response of the northern stratospheric polar vortex to the seasonal alignment of QBO phase transitions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22810, doi:10.1029/2008GL035721.

Influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the extratropical winter stratosphere in an atmospheric general circulation model and in reanalysis data

The interannual variability of the stratospheric polar vortex during winter in both hemispheres is observed to correlate strongly with the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical stratospheric winds. It follows that the lack of a spontaneously generated QBO in most atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) adversely affects the nature of polar variability in such models. This study examines QBO–vortex coupling in an AGCM in which a QBO is spontaneously induced by resolved and parameterized waves. The QBO–vortex coupling in the AGCM compares favorably to that seen in reanalysis data [from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40)], provided that careful attention is given to the definition of QBO phase. A phase angle representation of the QBO is employed that is based on the two leading empirical orthogonal functions of equatorial zonal wind vertical profiles. This yields a QBO phase that serves as a proxy for the vertical structure of equatorial winds over the whole depth of the stratosphere and thus provides a means of subsampling the data to select QBO phases with similar vertical profiles of equatorial zonal wind. Using this subsampling, it is found that the QBO phase that induces the strongest polar vortex response in early winter differs from that which induces the strongest late-winter vortex response. This is true in both hemispheres and for both the AGCM and ERA-40. It follows that the strength and timing of QBO influence on the vortex may be affected by the partial seasonal synchronization of QBO phase transitions that occurs both in observations and in the model. This provides a mechanism by which changes in the strength of QBO–vortex correlations may exhibit variability on decadal time scales. In the model, such behavior occurs in the absence of external forcings or interannual variations in sea surface temperatures.