970 resultados para Univariate Analysis box-jenkins methodology
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Background: Modelling epidemiological knowledge in validated clinical scores is a practical mean of integrating EBM to usual care. Existing scores about cardiovascular disease have been largely developed in emergency settings, but few in primary care. Such a toll is needed for general practitioners (GP) to evaluate the probability of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in patients with non-traumatic chest pain. Objective: To develop a predictive model to use as a clinical score for detecting IHD in patients with non-traumatic chest-pain in primary care. Methods: A post-hoc secondary analysis on data from an observational study including 672 patients with chest pain of which 85 had IHD diagnosed by their GP during the year following their inclusion. Best subset method was used to select 8 predictive variables from univariate analysis and fitted in a multivariate logistic regression model to define the score. Reliability of the model was assessed using split-group method. Results: Significant predictors were: age (0-3 points), gender (1 point), having at least one cardiovascular risks factor (hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, smoking, family history of CVD; 3 points), personal history of cardiovascular disease (1 point), duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes (2 points), substernal chest pain (1 point), pain increasing with exertion (1 point) and absence of tenderness at palpation (1 point). Area under the ROC curve for the score was of 0.95 (IC95% 0.93; 0.97). Patients were categorised in three groups, low risk of IHD (score under 6; n = 360), moderate risk of IHD (score from 6 to 8; n = 187) and high risk of IHD (score from 9-13; n = 125). Prevalence of IHD in each group was respectively of 0%, 6.7%, 58.5%. Reliability of the model seems satisfactory as the model developed from the derivation set predicted perfectly (p = 0.948) the number of patients in each group in the validation set. Conclusion: This clinical score based only on history and physical exams can be an important tool in the practice of the general physician for the prediction of ischemic heart disease in patients complaining of chest pain. The score below 6 points (in more than half of our population) can avoid demanding complementary exams for selected patients (ECG, laboratory tests) because of the very low risk of IHD. Score above 6 points needs investigation to detect or rule out IHD. Further external validation is required in ambulatory settings.
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CONTEXT: There is contradictory information regarding the prognostic importance of adipocytokines, hepatic and inflammatory biomarkers on the incidence of type 2 diabetes. The objective was to assess the prognostic relevance of adipocytokine and inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein - CRP; interleukin-1beta - IL-1β; interleukin-6- IL-6; tumour necrosis factor-α - TNF-α; leptin and adiponectin) and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (γGT) on the incidence of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Prospective, population-based study including 3,842 non-diabetic participants (43.3% men, age range 35 to 75 years), followed for an average of 5.5 years (2003-2008). The endpoint was the occurrence of type 2 diabetes. RESULTS: 208 participants (5.4%, 66 women) developed type 2 diabetes during follow-up. On univariate analysis, participants who developed type 2 diabetes had significantly higher baseline levels of IL-6, CRP, leptin and γGT, and lower levels of adiponectin than participants who remained free of type 2 diabetes. After adjusting for a validated type 2 diabetes risk score, only the associations with adiponectin: Odds Ratio and (95% confidence interval): 0.97 (0.64-1.47), 0.84 (0.55-1.30) and 0.64 (0.40-1.03) for the second, third and forth gender-specific quartiles respectively, remained significant (P-value for trend = 0.05). Adding each marker to a validated type 2 diabetes risk score (including age, family history of type 2 diabetes, height, waist circumference, resting heart rate, presence of hypertension, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, fasting glucose and serum uric acid) did not improve the area under the ROC or the net reclassification index; similar findings were obtained when the markers were combined, when the markers were used as continuous (log-transformed) variables or when gender-specific quartiles were used. CONCLUSION: Decreased adiponectin levels are associated with an increased risk for incident type 2 diabetes, but they seem to add little information regarding the risk of developing type 2 diabetes to a validated risk score.
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Summary. Genetic polymorphisms near IL28B are associated with spontaneous and treatment-induced clearance of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Our objective was to assess the predictive value of IL28B polymorphisms in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C of patients with HCV genotypes 4, for which data are currently limited. We analysed the association of IL28B polymorphisms with the virological response to treatment among 182 naïve chronic hepatitis C patients with HCV genotype 4, all from Syria. Associations of alleles with the response patterns were evaluated by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression, accounting for all relevant covariates. Sustained virological response (SVR) was achieved in 26% of rs8099917 TG/GG carriers compared with 60% of TT carriers (P < 0.0001) and 35% of rs12979860 CT/TT carriers compared with 62% of CC carriers (P = 0.0011). By multivariate analysis, the association between rs8099917 and SVR remained significant (OR = 0.19, 95% CI 0.07-0.50, for TG/GG vs TT, P = 0.0007), with the only significant covariate being advanced fibrosis (OR = 0.13, 95% CI 0.04-0.37, P = 0.0002). In conclusion, IL28B polymorphisms are the strongest predictors of response to therapy among chronic hepatitis C patients with HCV genotype 4.
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PURPOSE: We evaluated the attitude in using chemotherapy near the end of life in advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PAC). Clinical and laboratory parameters recorded at last chemotherapy administration were analyzed, in order to identify risk factors for imminent death. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of patients who underwent at least one line of palliative chemotherapy was made. Data concerning chemotherapy (regimens, lines, and date of last administration) were collected. Clinical and laboratory factors recorded at last chemotherapy administration were: performance status, presence of ascites, hemoglobin, white blood cell (WBC), platelets, total bilirubin, albumin, LDH, C-reactive protein (C-rp), and Ca 19.9. RESULTS: We analyzed 231 patients: males/females, 53/47 %; metastatic/locally advanced disease, 80/20 %; and median age, 66 years (range 32-85). All patients died due to disease progression. Median overall survival was 6.1 months (95 % CI 5.1-7.2). At the last chemotherapy delivery, performance status was 0-1 in 37 % and 2 in 63 %. Fifty-nine percent of patients received one chemotherapy line, while 32, 8, and 1 % had second-, third-, and fourth line, respectively. The interval between last chemotherapy administration and death was <4 weeks in 24 %, ≥4-12 in 47 %, and >12 in 29 %. Median survival from last chemotherapy to death was 7.5 weeks (95 % CI 6.7-8.4). In a univariate analysis, ascites, elevated WBC, bilirubin, LDH, C-rp and Ca 19.9, and reduced albumin were found to predict shorter survival; however, none of them remained significant in a multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: A significant proportion of patients with advanced PAC received chemotherapy within the last month of life. The clinical and laboratory parameters recorded at last chemotherapy delivery did not predict shorter survival.
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PURPOSE: Acute pyelonephritis is a common condition in children, and can lead to renal scarring. The aim of this study was to analyze the progression of renal scarring with time and its impact on renal growth. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 50 children who had renal scarring on dimercapto-succinic acid scan 6 months after acute pyelonephritis underwent a repeat scan 3 years later. Lesion changes were evaluated by 3 blinded observers, and were classified as no change, partial resolution or complete disappearance. Renal size at time of acute pyelonephritis and after 3 years was obtained by ultrasound, and renal growth was assessed comparing z-score for age between the 2 measures. Robust linear regression was used to identify determinants of renal growth. RESULTS: At 6 months after acute pyelonephritis 88 scars were observed in 100 renal units. No change was observed in 27%, partial resolution in 63% and complete disappearance in 9% of lesions. Overall, 72% of lesions improved. Increased number of scars was associated with high grade vesicoureteral reflux (p = 0.02). Multivariate analysis showed that the number of scars was the most important parameter leading to decreased renal growth (CI -1.05 to -0.35, p <0.001), and with 3 or more scars this finding was highly significant on univariate analysis (-1.59, CI -2.10 to -1.09, p <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Even 6 months after acute pyelonephritis 72% of dimercapto-succinic acid defects improved, demonstrating that some of the lesions may be not definitive. The number of scars was significantly associated with loss of renal growth at 3 years.
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BACKGROUND: Up to 5% of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) four or more times within a 12 month period represent 21% of total ED visits. In this study we sought to characterize social and medical vulnerability factors of ED frequent users (FUs) and to explore if these factors hold simultaneously. METHODS: We performed a case-control study at Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. Patients over 18 years presenting to the ED at least once within the study period (April 2008 toMarch 2009) were included. FUs were defined as patients with four or more ED visits within the previous 12 months. Outcome data were extracted from medical records of the first ED attendance within the study period. Outcomes included basic demographics and social variables, ED admission diagnosis, somatic and psychiatric days hospitalized over 12 months, and having a primary care physician.We calculated the percentage of FUs and non-FUs having at least one social and one medical vulnerability factor. The four chosen social factors included: unemployed and/or dependence on government welfare, institutionalized and/or without fixed residence, either separated, divorced or widowed, and under guardianship. The fourmedical vulnerability factors were: ≥6 somatic days hospitalized, ≥1 psychiatric days hospitalized, ≥5 clinical departments used (all three factors measured over 12 months), and ED admission diagnosis of alcohol and/or drug abuse. Univariate and multivariate logistical regression analyses allowed comparison of two JGIM ABSTRACTS S391 random samples of 354 FUs and 354 non-FUs (statistical power 0.9, alpha 0.05 for all outcomes except gender, country of birth, and insurance type). RESULTS: FUs accounted for 7.7% of ED patients and 24.9% of ED visits. Univariate logistic regression showed that FUs were older (mean age 49.8 vs. 45.2 yrs, p=0.003),more often separated and/or divorced (17.5%vs. 13.9%, p=0.029) or widowed (13.8% vs. 8.8%, p=0.029), and either unemployed or dependent on government welfare (31.3% vs. 13.3%, p<0.001), compared to non-FUs. FUs cumulated more days hospitalized over 12 months (mean number of somatic days per patient 1.0 vs. 0.3, p<0.001; mean number of psychiatric days per patient 0.12 vs. 0.03, p<0.001). The two groups were similar regarding gender distribution (females 51.7% vs. 48.3%). The multivariate linear regression model was based on the six most significant factors identified by univariate analysis The model showed that FUs had more social problems, as they were more likely to be institutionalized or not have a fixed residence (OR 4.62; 95% CI, 1.65 to 12.93), and to be unemployed or dependent on government welfare (OR 2.03; 95% CI, 1.31 to 3.14) compared to non-FUs. FUs were more likely to need medical care, as indicated by involvement of≥5 clinical departments over 12 months (OR 6.2; 95%CI, 3.74 to 10.15), having an ED admission diagnosis of substance abuse (OR 3.23; 95% CI, 1.23 to 8.46) and having a primary care physician (OR 1.70;95%CI, 1.13 to 2.56); however, they were less likely to present with an admission diagnosis of injury (OR 0.64; 95% CI, 0.40 to 1.00) compared to non-FUs. FUs were more likely to combine at least one social with one medical vulnerability factor (38.4% vs. 12.1%, OR 7.74; 95% CI 5.03 to 11.93). CONCLUSIONS: FUs were more likely than non-FUs to have social and medical vulnerability factors and to have multiple factors in combination.
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OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of the INTERMED questionnaire score, alone or combined with other criteria, in predicting return to work after a multidisciplinary rehabilitation program in patients with non-specific chronic low back pain. METHODS: The INTERMED questionnaire is a biopsychosocial assessment and clinical classification tool that separates heterogeneous populations into subgroups according to case complexity. We studied 88 patients with chronic low back pain who followed an intensive multidisciplinary rehabilitation program on an outpatient basis. Before the program, we recorded the INTERMED score, radiological abnormalities, subjective pain severity, and sick leave duration. Associations between these variables and return to full-time work within 3 months after the end of the program were evaluated using one-sided Fisher tests and univariate logistic regression followed by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: The univariate analysis showed a significant association between the INTERMED score and return to work (P<0.001; odds ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.96). In the multivariate analysis, prediction was best when the INTERMED score and sick leave duration were used in combination (P=0.03; odds ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.25-0.93). CONCLUSION: The INTERMED questionnaire is useful for evaluating patients with chronic low back pain. It could be used to improve the selection of patients for intensive multidisciplinary programs, thereby improving the quality of care, while reducing healthcare costs.
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Status epilepticus (SE) prognosis is related to nonmodifiable factors (age, etiology), but the exact role of drug treatment is unclear. This study was undertaken to address the prognostic role of treatment adherence to guidelines (TAG). We prospectively studied over 26 months a cohort of adults with incident SE (excluding postanoxic). TAG was assessed in terms of drug doses (± 30 % of recommendations) and medication sequence; its prognostic impact on mortality and return to baseline conditions was adjusted for etiology, SE severity [Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS)], and comorbidities. Of 225 patients, 26 (12 %) died and 82 (36 %) were discharged with a new handicap; TAG was observed in 142 (63 %). On univariate analysis, age, etiology, SE severity, and comorbidities were significantly related to outcome, while TAG was associated with neither outcome nor likelihood of SE control. Logistic regression for mortality identified etiology [odds ratio (OR) 18.8, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 4.3-82.8] and SE severity (STESS ≥ 3; OR 1.7, 95 % CI 1.2-2.4) as independent predictors, and for lack of return to baseline, again etiology (OR 7.4, 95 % CI 3.9-14.0) and STESS ≥ 3 (OR 1.7, 95 % CI 1.4-2.2). Similar results were found for the subgroup of 116 patients with generalized-convulsive SE. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analyses confirmed that TAG did not improve outcome prediction. This study of a large SE cohort suggests that treatment adherence to recommendations using current medications seems to play a negligible prognostic role (class III), confirming the importance of the biological background. Awaiting further treatment trials, it appears mandatory to apply resources towards identification of new therapeutic approaches.
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Tämä teksti on työselostus indeksin ekologinen jalanjälki metsäosion laskennan menetelmiä selvittävästä tutkimuksesta. Tutkimusraportti alkaa selostuksella, jossa kerrotaanaiheen taustaa ja yhteys, missä liikutaan: indikaattorien hyödyntäminen, politiikka kestävän kehityksen ympärillä sekä hieman kestävän kehityksen kokonaisuudesta. Tämä on johdanto varsinaiseen tutkimuksen sisältöön. Tekstissä raportoidaan ekologisen jalanjäljen vuoden 2001 laskentataulukon mukainen metsäosion laskentamenetelmä sekä myös hiilidioksidin sitoutumisen jalanjäljen ja biokapasiteetin laskentamenetelmät. Tutkimuksen tuloksia ovat laskennasta löytyneet epäkohdat ja niiden kehittäminen. Tekstissä koetetaan myös selventää ekologisen jalanjäljen kokonaisuutta ja sitä miten sen tuloksia tulisi lukea.
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INTRODUCTION: Preoperative scores are widely used predictors of complications after major surgery. These scores, however, are not widely used in transurethral procedures. The aim of this study was to assess the value of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), the age-adjusted CCI, the American Society of Anesthesiologist score (ASA) and the Nutritional Risk Score (NRS) in predicting early morbidity after transurethral urological procedures. METHODS: Consecutive patients undergoing transurethral resection of the bladder or the prostate were prospectively enrolled. The scores were calculated preoperatively; 30-day complications were prospectively recorded according to the Dindo-Clavien classification. Univariate logistic regression was performed to investigate the value of each score and of other factors (i.e., age, sex, body mass index, anemia, smoking habit, type of operation and anaesthesia) as predictors of complications. A multivariate model was then calculated using these predictors. RESULTS: Overall, 197 patients were included. The mean age was 72 (standard deviation ± 10). In total, 26.9% patients had at least 1 complication. Using univariate analysis, we found that each score significantly predicted complications. In multivariate analysis, only the ASA (odds ration [OR] 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-4.43) and the NRS (OR 2.42; 95% CI 1.56-3.74) remained independent predictors. The best model incorporated ASA, NRS and gender, and predicted morbidity with an area under the curve of 76%. Our study's main limitations are population heterogeneity and limited sample size. CONCLUSION: The ASA and the NRS are important and independent determinants of early morbidity after transurethral procedures. The use of these indices may assist clinicians in the decision-making process to balance the possible benefits of transurethral procedures with the potential risks.
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PURPOSE: To identify risk factors associated with mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) caused by S. pneumoniae who require intensive care unit (ICU) management, and to assess the prognostic values of these risk factors at the time of admission. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of all consecutive patients with CAP caused by S. pneumoniae who were admitted to the 32-bed medico-surgical ICU of a community and referral university hospital between 2002 and 2011. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on variables available at admission. RESULTS: Among the 77 adult patients with severe CAP caused by S. pneumoniae who required ICU management, 12 patients died (observed mortality rate 15.6 %). Univariate analysis indicated that septic shock and low C-reactive protein (CRP) values at admission were associated with an increased risk of death. In a multivariate model, after adjustment for age and gender, septic shock [odds ratio (OR), confidence interval 95 %; 4.96, 1.11-22.25; p = 0.036], and CRP (OR 0.99, 0.98-0.99 p = 0.034) remained significantly associated with death. Finally, we assessed the discriminative ability of CRP to predict mortality by computing its receiver operating characteristic curve. The CRP value cut-off for the best sensitivity and specificity was 169.5 mg/L to predict hospital mortality with an area under the curve of 0.72 (0.55-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: The mortality of patients with S. pneumoniae CAP requiring ICU management was much lower than predicted by severity scores. The presence of septic shock and a CRP value at admission <169.5 mg/L predicted a fatal outcome.
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BACKGROUND: Surgical site infection (SSI) is a common cause of major morbidity after liver resection. This study aimed to identify the risk factors for incisional and organ/space SSIs after liver resection. METHODS: Our liver surgery database was retrospectively analyzed for patients treated between January 2009 and November 2012 in a tertiary care Swiss hospital. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted on preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables to identify risk factors for incisional and organ/space SSIs. RESULTS: In a total of 226 patients, SSI incidences were 12.8 % (incisional), 4.0 % (organ/space), and 1.8 % (both). Univariate analysis showed that incisional SSIs were associated with high American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) scores, preoperative anemia, hypoalbuminemia, low prothrombin time, viral or alcoholic chronic hepatitis, liver cirrhosis, and prolonged operation times. Organ/space SSIs were associated with high rates of red blood cell transfusions, concomitant bowel surgery, and prolonged operation times. Multivariate analysis revealed that risk factors for incisional SSIs were anemia [odds ratio (OR) 2.82], high ASA scores (OR 2.88), presence of hepatitis or cirrhosis (OR 5.07), and prolonged operation times (OR 9.61). The only risk factor for organ/space SSIs was concomitant bowel surgery (OR 5.53). Hospital stays were similar in organ/space and incisional SSI groups, but significantly longer for those with both organ/space and incisional SSIs. CONCLUSIONS: High ASA scores, anemia, chronic hepatitis or liver cirrhosis, and prolonged operations increased the risk of incisional SSIs; concomitant bowel surgery increased the risk of organ/space SSI. Specific precautions to prevent organ/space and incisional SSIs may shorten hospital stays.
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BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Preoperative nutrition has been shown to reduce morbidity after major gastrointestinal (GI) surgery in selected patients at risk. In a randomized trial performed recently (NCT00512213), almost half of the patients, however, did not consume the recommended dose of nutritional intervention. The present study aimed to identify the risk factors for noncompliance. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Demographic (n=5) and nutritional (n=21) parameters for this retrospective analysis were obtained from a prospectively maintained database. The outcome of interest was compliance with the allocated intervention (ingestion of ⩾11/15 preoperative oral nutritional supplement units). Uni- and multivariate analyses of potential risk factors for noncompliance were performed. RESULTS: The final analysis included 141 patients with complete data sets for the purpose of the study. Fifty-nine patients (42%) were considered noncompliant. Univariate analysis identified low C-reactive protein levels (P=0.015), decreased recent food intake (P=0.032) and, as a trend, low hemoglobin (P=0.065) and low pre-albumin (P=0.056) levels as risk factors for decreased compliance. However, none of them was retained as an independent risk factor after multivariate analysis. Interestingly, 17 potential explanatory parameters, such as upper GI cancer, weight loss, reduced appetite or co-morbidities, did not show any significant correlation with reduced intake of nutritional supplements. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced compliance with preoperative nutritional interventions remains a major issue because the expected benefit depends on the actual intake. Seemingly, obvious reasons could not be retained as valid explanations. Compliance seems thus to be primarily a question of will and information; the importance of nutritional supplementation needs to be emphasized by specific patients' education.
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BACKGROUND: Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGBP), one of the commonest performed bariatric procedures, remains a technically challenging operation associated with significant morbidity in high-risk patients. This study was conducted in order to identify predictors of complications after laparoscopic RYGBP. METHODS: Our prospectively established database has been assessed to review 30-day and in-hospital complications graded according to a validated scoring system (Clavien-Dindo) and separated into minor (Clavien-Dindo I-IIIa) and major (Clavien-Dindo IIIb-IV) complications. Patient- and procedure-related factors were analyzed using univariate analysis. Significant factors associated with morbidity were introduced into a multivariate analysis to identify independent predictors. RESULTS: Between 1999 and 2012, 1573 patients underwent laparoscopic RYGBP, 374 male and 1199 female. Mean age was 41 years, and mean body mass index (BMI) was 44.5 kg/m(2). One hundred fifty-nine procedures were reoperations. One hundred fifty (9.5 %) patients developed at least one complication, and 43 (2.7 %) had major complications, leading to death in one case (0.06 %). Risk factors for morbidity were male gender (p = 0.006) and overall experience of the team (p < 0.0001). Prolonged 3-day antibiotic therapy was associated with significantly reduced overall (p < 0.0001) and major (p = 0.005) complication rates. Major complications were associated with smoking (p = 0.016). CONCLUSIONS: The most significant individual risk factors for early complications after RYGBP are male gender, limited surgical experience, and single dose of antibiotics. RYGBP should be performed by experienced teams. Smoking should be discontinued before surgery. Prolonged antibiotic therapy could be considered, especially if a circular stapled gastrojejunostomy is performed with the anvil introduced transorally.
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PURPOSE: Thoracic fat has been associated with an increased risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). As endothelium-dependent vasoreactivity is a surrogate of cardiovascular events and is impaired early in atherosclerosis, we aimed at assessing the possible relationship between thoracic fat volume (TFV) and endothelium-dependent coronary vasomotion. METHODS: Fifty healthy volunteers without known CAD or major cardiovascular risk factors (CRFs) prospectively underwent a (82)Rb cardiac PET/CT to quantify myocardial blood flow (MBF) at rest, and MBF response to cold pressor testing (CPT-MBF) and adenosine (i.e., stress-MBF). TFV was measured by a 2D volumetric CT method and common laboratory blood tests (glucose and insulin levels, HOMA-IR, cholesterol, triglyceride, hsCRP) were performed. Relationships between CPT-MBF, TFV and other CRFs were assessed using non-parametric Spearman rank correlation testing and multivariate linear regression analysis. RESULTS: All of the 50 participants (58 ± 10y) had normal stress-MBF (2.7 ± 0.6 mL/min/g; 95 % CI: 2.6-2.9) and myocardial flow reserve (2.8 ± 0.8; 95 % CI: 2.6-3.0) excluding underlying CAD. Univariate analysis revealed a significant inverse relation between absolute CPT-MBF and sex (ρ = -0.47, p = 0.0006), triglyceride (ρ = -0.32, p = 0.024) and insulin levels (ρ = -0.43, p = 0.0024), HOMA-IR (ρ = -0.39, p = 0.007), BMI (ρ = -0.51, p = 0.0002) and TFV (ρ = -0.52, p = 0.0001). MBF response to adenosine was also correlated with TFV (ρ = -0.32, p = 0.026). On multivariate analysis, TFV emerged as the only significant predictor of MBF response to CPT (p = 0.014). CONCLUSIONS: TFV is significantly correlated with endothelium-dependent and -independent coronary vasomotion. High TF burden might negatively influence MBF response to CPT and to adenosine stress, even in persons without CAD, suggesting a link between thoracic fat and future cardiovascular events.