The United States subprime mortgage crisis and its implications for the Caribbean

The bursting of the property bubble – subprime mortgage crisis – in 2007 in the United States has engendered panic, recession fears and turmoil in the global financial system. Although the United States economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the last quarter of 2007, down from 4.9 per cent in the previous quarter, day by day worsening scenarios emerge, from escalating oil prices, to a depreciating dollar and financial institutions’ bailout by the Federal Reserve. Many economists and policy makers share the view that a subprime-led recession – i.e. two consecutive quarters with negative growth – is inevitable and will be much deeper and longer than the 2001 dot-com downturn. Moreover, the critical situation of the financial system has driven some analysts to argue that should the monetary policy response fails to restore confidence among investors, the outcome would be the worst crisis seen since the Great Depression. This pessimism is not only among specialists. Indeed, in late March 2008 the Consumer Confidence Index in the United States recorded its lowest level since February 1992. A recession in the United States will undoubtedly have an important impact on the world economy, despite the continuous rapid growth experienced by emerging economies, particularly China and India. The purpose of this article is threefold: first, to characterize the current situation in the United States economy; second, to discuss the economic policy responses; and finally, to elaborate on how Caribbean economies may be affected.

The Outlook for Agriculture and Rural Development in the Americas: A Perspective on Latin America and the Caribbean 2015-2016

In this, the sixth in the series of documents entitled “Outlook for Agriculture and Rural Development in the Americas,” the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA) analyze the trends in, and outlook for, the macroeconomic and sectoral contexts, agriculture, rural well-being, and policies and the institutional framework in the sector. The document presents proposals for policies needed to enable the region’s agriculture to regain its former buoyancy and to enhance the development of rural areas. It also includes recommendations designed to mitigate the impact of the economic slowdown in agriculture, spur higher agricultural productivity in the region, foster the integrated management of natural resources, and facilitate the successful incorporation of family farmers, young people, and rural women into agricultural value chains.

A United States Information Agency e sua ação no Brasil de 1953 a 1964

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A Survery of Western United States Instream Flow Programs and The Policies that Protect a River's Ecosystem

The Western United States can best be described as a vast, varying land, with the high plains to the east and the jagged horizons of Rockies to the west. However there is one common trait shared by these states: the lack of water resources. With the continued development of this land, the fact that water is scarce is becoming more real. This issue became more difficult to handle as the public became more aware that many competing uses existed for the finite resource, and those different uses were degrading the natural environments of the surface waters. With this realization instream flow policies provides a comprehensive account of the policy framework a selected number of western states have established in order to protect instream flows and the overall health of a river's ecosystem. Also included is the identification of key policies that should be promoted or removed from a state's instream flow program. Ultimately, this thesis continues to add the the ever-evolving process of modernizing water law frameworks.

Outcomes of Epileptic Spasms in Patients Aged Less Than 3 Years: Single-Center United States Experience

Retrospective review was performed of children aged <3 years with epileptic spasms at our center from 2004-2010. Short-term (<6 months) and long-term (>= 6 months) outcomes were assessed. We included 173 children (104 boys; median age of onset, 6.8 months) with epileptic spasms of known (62%) and unknown (38%) etiology. Treatments included adrenocorticotropic hormone (n = 103), vigabatrin (n = 82), phenobarbital (n = 34), and other agents (n = 121). Short-term treatment with adrenocorticotropic hormone and vigabatrin provided better epileptic spasm control in groups with known and unknown etiology than other agents. At follow-up (6-27 months), 54% of children manifested seizures, and 83% manifested developmental delay. Known etiology was a predictor of poor developmental outcome (P = 0.006), whereas bilateral/diffuse brain lesions predicted both poor development and seizures (P = 0.001 and 0.005, respectively). Initial presentations of epileptic spasms with hypotonia or developmental delay most strongly predicted both seizures and neurodevelopmental outcomes (P < 0.001). In a child presenting with epileptic spasms with developmental delay or hypotonia, no specific treatment may offer superior benefit. (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Patterns of alcohol and illicit substance use in the United States and Mexico. Substantive and methodologic issues in the cross-national analysis of alcohol and drug use data

This research examines prevalence of alcohol and illicit substance use in the United States and Mexico and associated socio-demographic characteristics. The sources of data for this study are public domain data from the U.S. National Household Survey of Drug Abuse, 1988 (n = 8814), and the Mexican National Survey of Addictions, 1988 (n = 12,579). In addition, this study discusses methodologic issues in cross-cultural and cross-national comparison of behavioral and epidemiologic data from population-based samples. The extent to which patterns of substance abuse vary among subgroups of the U.S. and Mexican populations is assessed, as well as the comparability and equivalence of measures of alcohol and drug use in these national samples.^ The prevalence of alcohol use was somewhat similar in the two countries for all three measures of use: lifetime, past year and past year heavy use, (85.0%, 68.1%, 39.6% and 72.6%, 47.7% and 45.8% for the U.S. and Mexico respectively). The use of illegal substances varied widely between countries, with U.S. respondents reporting significantly higher levels of use than their Mexican counterparts. For example, reported use of any illicit substance in lifetime and past year was 34.2%, 11.6 for the U.S., and 3.3% and 0.6% for Mexico. Despite these differences in prevalence, two demographic characteristics, gender and age, were important correlates of use in both countries. Men in both countries were more likely to report use of alcohol and illicit substances than women. Generally speaking, a greater proportion of respondents in both countries 18 years of age or older reported use of alcohol for all three measures than younger respondents; and a greater proportion of respondents between the ages of 18 and 34 years reported use of illicit substances during lifetime and past year than any other age group.^ Additional substantive research investigating population-based samples and at-risk subgroups is needed to understand the underlying mechanisms of these associations. Further development of cross-culturally meaningful survey methods is warranted to validate comparisons of substance use across countries and societies. ^

Field investigation of dried lakes in western United States as an analogue to desiccation fractures on Mars

Potential Desiccation Polygons (PDPs), tens to hundreds of meters in size, have been observed in numerous regions on Mars, particularly in ancient (>3Gyr old) terrains of inferred paleolacustrine/playa geologic setting, and in association with hydrous minerals such as smectites. Therefore, a better understanding of the conditions in which large desiccation polygons form could yield unique insight into the ancient climate on Mars. Many dried lakebeds/playas in western United States display large (>50m wide) desiccation polygons, which we consider to be analogues for PDPs on Mars. Therefore, we have carried out fieldwork in seven of these dried lakes in San Bernardino and the Death Valley National Park regions complemented with laboratory and spectral analysis of collected samples. Our study shows that the investigated lacustrine/playa sediments have (a) a soil matrix containing 40-75% clays and fine silt (by volume) where the clay minerals are dominated by illite/muscovite followed by smectite, (b) carbonaceous mineralogy with variable amounts of chloride and sulfate salts, and significantly, (c) roughly similar spectral signatures in the visible-near-infrared (VIS-NIR) range. We conclude that the development of large desiccation fractures is consistent with water table retreat. In addition, the comparison of the mineralogical to the spectral observations further suggests that remote sensing VIS-NIR spectroscopy has its limitations for detailed characterization of lacustrine/playa deposits. Finally, our results imply that the widespread distribution of PDPs on Mars indicates global or regional climatic transitions from wet conditions to more arid ones making them important candidate sites for future in situ missions.

Representing Afghanistan: The United States and Democracy's Imposition

There is an ongoing mission in Afghanistan; a mission driven by external political forces. At its core this mission hopes to establish peace, to protect the populace, and to install democracy. Each of these goals has remained just that, a goal, for the past eight years as the American and international mission in Afghanistan has enjoyed varied levels of commitment. Currently, the stagnant progress in Afghanistan has led the international community to become increasingly concerned about the viability of a future Afghan state. Most of these questions take root in the question over whether or not an Afghan state can function without the auspices of international terrorism. Inevitably, the normative question of what exactly that government should be arises from this base concern. In formulating a response to this question, the consensus of western society has been to install representative democracy. This answer has been a recurring theme in the post Cold War era as states such as Bosnia and Somalia bear witness to the ill effects of external democratic imposition. I hypothesize that the current mold of externally driven state-building is unlikely to result in what western actors seek it to establish: representative democracy. By primarily examining the current situation in Afghanistan, I claim that external installation of representative democracy is modally flawed in that its process mandates choice. Representative democracy by definition constitutes a government reflective of its people, or electorate. Thus, freedom of choice is necessary for a functional representative democracy. From this, one can deduce that because an essential function of democracy is choice, its implementation lies with the presence of choice. State-building is an imposition that eliminates that necessary ingredient. The two stand as polar opposites that cannot effectively collaborate. Security, governing capacity, and development have all been targeted as measurements of success in Afghanistan. The three factors are generally seen as mutually constitutive; so improved security is seen as improving governing capacity. Thus, the recent resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan and a deteriorating security environment moving forward has demonstrated the inability of the Afghan government to govern. The primary reason for the Afghan government’s deficiencies is its lack of legitimacy among its constituency. Even the use of the term ‘constituency’ must be qualified because the Afghan government has often oscillated between serving the people within its territorial borders and the international community. The existence of the Afghan state is so dependent on foreign aid and intervention that it has lost policy-making and enforcing power. This is evident by the inability of Afghanistan to engage in basic sovereign state activities as maintaining a national budget, conducting elections, providing for its own national security, and deterring criminality. The Afghan state is nothing more than a shell of a government, and indicative of the failings that external state-building has with establishing democracy.

Cutaneous malignant melanoma: A study of skin cancer in the United States from 1973--1997

Cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) is the cancer of the melanocytes, the cells that produce the pigment melanin, and is an aggressive skin cancer that is most prevalent in the white population. Although most cases of malignant melanoma are white, black and other non-white populations also develop this disease. However, the etiologic factors involved in the development of melanoma in these lower-risk populations are not well known. Generally, survival rates of malignant melanoma have been found to be lower in blacks than for whites with similar stage of disease at diagnosis. ^ This study presents an analysis of the differences in survival between black and white cases with malignant melanoma of the skin as the only or first primary cancer, found in the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) cancer registry from 1973 to 1997. A total of 54,193 cases of CMM were diagnosed in black and white patients between 1973 and 1997. Black patients tended to be older, with a mean age of 64.46 years, compared to 53.14 years for white patients. Eighty-nine percent of patients were diagnosed with CMM as the only cancer. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)^

The status of genetically modified foods internationally and in the United States

Biotechnology refers to the broad set of techniques that allow genetic manipulation of organisms. The techniques of biotechnology have broad implications for many industries, however it promises the greatest innovations in the production of products regulated by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Like many other powerful new technologies, biotechnology may carry risks as well as benefits. Several of its applications have engendered fervent emotional reactions and raised serious ethical concerns, especially internationally. ^ First, in my paper I discuss the historical and technical background of biotechnology. Second, I examine the development of biotechnology in Europe, the citizens' response to genetically modified (“GM”) foods and the governments' response. Third, I examine the regulation of bioengineered products and foods in the United States. ^ In conclusion, there are various problems with the current status of regulation of GM foods in the United States. These are four basic flaws: (1) the Coordinated Framework allows for too much jurisdictional overlap of biotechnological foods, (2) GM foods are considered GRAS and consequently, are placed on the market without pre-market approval, (3) federal mandatory labeling of GM foods cannot occur until the question of whether or not nondisclosure of a genetic engineering production processes is misleading or material information and (4) an independent state-labeling scheme of GM foods will most likely impede interstate commerce. ^

A model of factors determining levels of public support for health care policy in the United States

Public preferences for policy are formed in a little-understood process that is not adequately described by traditional economic theory of choice. In this paper I suggest that U.S. aggregate support for health reform can be modeled as tradeoffs among a small number of behavioral values and the stage of policy development. The theory underlying the model is based on Samuelson, et al.'s (1986) work and Wilke's (1991) elaboration of it as the Greed/Efficiency/Fairness (GEF) hypothesis of motivation in the management of resource dilemmas, and behavioral economics informed by Kahneman and Thaler's prospect theory. ^ The model developed in this paper employs ordered probit econometric techniques applied to data derived from U.S. polls taken from 1990 to mid-2003 that measured support for health reform proposals. Outcome data are four-tiered Likert counts; independent variables are dummies representing the presence or absence of operationalizations of each behavioral variable, along with an integer representing policy process stage. Marginal effects of each independent variable predict how support levels change on triggering that variable. Model estimation results indicate a vanishingly small likelihood that all coefficients are zero and all variables have signs expected from model theory. ^ Three hypotheses were tested: support will drain from health reform policy as it becomes increasingly well-articulated and approaches enactment; reforms appealing to fairness through universal health coverage will enjoy a higher degree of support than those targeted more narrowly; health reforms calling for government operation of the health finance system will achieve lower support than those that do not. Model results support the first and last hypotheses. Contrary to expectations, universal health care proposals did not provide incremental support beyond those targeted to “deserving” populations—children, elderly, working families. In addition, loss of autonomy (e.g. restrictions on choice of care giver) is found to be the “third rail” of health reform with significantly-reduced support. When applied to a hypothetical health reform in which an employer-mandated Medical Savings Account policy is the centerpiece, the model predicts support that may be insufficient to enactment. These results indicate that the method developed in the paper may prove valuable to health policy designers. ^

Correlation between dental care utilization and oral cavity cancer in a large sample of community-based United States residents

Cancer of the oral cavity and pharynx remains one of the ten leading causes of cancer death in the United States (US). Besides smoking and alcohol consumption, there are no well established risk factors. While poor dental care had been implicated, it is unknown if the lack of dental care, implying poor dental hygiene predisposes to oral cavity cancer. This study aimed to assess the relationship between dental care utilization during the past twelve months and the prevalence of oral cavity cancer. A cross-sectional design of the National Health Interview Survey of adult, non-institutionalized US residents (n=30,475) was used to assess the association between dental care utilization and self reported diagnosis of oral cavity cancer. Chi square statistic was used to examine the crude association between the predictor variable, dental care utilization and other covariates, while unconditional logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between oral cavity cancer and dental care utilization. There were statistically significant differences between those who utilized dental care during the past twelve months and those who did not with respect to education, income, age, marital status, and gender (p < 0.05), but not health insurance coverage (p = 0.53). Also, those who utilized dental care relative to those who did not were 65% less likely to present with oral cavity cancer, prevalence odds ratio (POR), 0.35, 95% Confidence Interval (CI), 0.12–0.98. Further, higher income advanced age, people of African heritage, and unmarried status were statistically significantly associated with oral cavity cancer, (p < 0.05), but health insurance coverage, alcohol use and smoking were not, p > 0.05. However, after simultaneously controlling for the relevant covariates, the association between dental care and oral cavity cancer did not attenuate nor persist. Thus, compared with those who did not use dental care, those who did wee 62% less likely to present with oral cavity cancer adjusted POR, 0.38, 95% CI, 0.13-1.10. Among US adults residing in community settings, use of dental care during the past twelve months did not significantly reduce the predisposition to oral cavity cancer. However, due to the nature of the data used in this study, which restricts temporal sequence, a large sample prospective study that may identify modifiable factors associated with oral cancer development namely poor dental care, is needed. ^

Hormonal exposure and risk of pancreatic cancer in the United States

Background. In the United States, the incidence of pancreatic cancer has increased; more than 37,000 new cases of pancreatic cancer were diagnosed in the year 2007. Overall, the five-year survival rate is about 5% and pancreatic cancer ranks the fourth leading cause of cancer-related mortality among men and women. Despite the observed progress in cancer diagnosis and treatment, pancreatic cancer remains an unresolved significant public health problem in the United States. Familial pancreatic cancer has been confirmed to be responsible for approximately 10% of pancreatic cancer cases. However, 90% are still without known inherited predisposition. Until now, the role of oral contraceptive pills (OCPs) and hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) among women with pancreatic cancer remain unclear. We examined the association of exogenous hormonal uses in US women with risk of pancreatic cancer. ^ Methods. This was an active hospital-based case-control study which is conducted at the department of gastrointestinal medical oncology in The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center. Between January 2005 and December 2007, a total of 287 women with pathologically confirmed pancreatic cancer (cases) and 287 healthy women (controls) were included in this investigation. Both cases and controls were frequency matched by age and race. Information about the use of hormonal contraceptives and hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) preparations as well as information about several risk factors of pancreatic cancer were collected by personal interview. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed in this study to analyze the data. ^ Results. We found a statistical significant protective effect for use of exogenous hormone preparations on pancreatic cancer development (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2–0.8). In addition, a 40% reduction in pancreatic cancer risk was observed among women who ever used any of the contraceptive methods including oral contraceptive pills (AOR, 6; 95% CI, 0.4–0.9). ^ Conclusions. Consistent with previous studies, the use of exogenous hormone preparations including oral contraceptive pills may confers a protective effect for pancreatic cancer development. More studies are warranted to explore for the underlying mechanism of such protection.^

OUT-OF-HOSPITAL CHILDBEARING CENTERS IN THE UNITED STATES: A DESCRIPTIVE STUDY OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC AND MEDICAL-OBSTETRIC CHARACTERISTICS OF WOMEN BEGINNING LABOR THEREIN 1972-1979

There is currently much interest in the appropriate use of obstetrical technology, cost containment and meeting consumers' needs for safe and satisfying maternity care. At the same time, there has been an increase in professionally unattended home births. In response, a new type of service, the out-of-hospital childbearing center (CBC) has been developed which is administratively and structurally separate from the hospital. In the CBC, maternity care is provided by certified nurse-midwives to carefully screened low risk childbearing families in conjunction with physician and hospital back-up.^ It was the purpose of this study to accomplish the following objectives: (1) To describe in a historical prospective study the demographic and medical-obstetric characteristics of patients laboring in eleven selected out-of-hospital childbearing centers in the United States from May 1, 1972, to December 15, 1979. Labor is defined as the onset of regular contractions as determined by the patient. (2) To describe any differences between those patients who require transfer to a back-up hospital and those who do not. (3) To describe administrative and service characteristics of eleven selected out-of-hospital childbearing centers in the United States. (4) To compare the demographic and medical-obstetric characteristics of women laboring in eleven selected out-of-hospital childbearing centers with a national sample of women of similar obstetric risk who according to birth certificates delivered legitimate infants in a hospital setting in the United States in 1972.^ Research concerning CBCs and supportive to the development of CBCs including studies which identified factors associated with fetal and perinatal morbidity and mortality, obstetrical risk screening, and the progress of technological development in obstetrics were reviewed. Information concerning the organization and delivery of care at each selected CBC was also collected and analyzed.^ A stratified, systematic sample of 1938 low risk women who began labor in a selected CBC were included in the study. These women were not unlike those described previously in small single center studies reported in the literature. The mean age was 25 years. Sixty-three per cent were white, 34 per cent Hispanic, 88 per cent married, 45 per cent had completed at least two years of college, nearly one-third were professionals and over a third were housewives. . . . (Author's abstract exceeds stipulated maximum length. Discontinued here with permission of school.) UMI ^

Risk factors for surgical site infections among patients undergoing major colon surgery in the United States 2007-2009

Background: Surgical site infections (SSIs) after abdominal surgeries account for approximately 26% of all reported SSIs. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines 3 types of SSIs: superficial incisional, deep incisional, and organ/space. Preventing SSIs has become a national focus. This dissertation assesses several associations with the individual types of SSI in patients that have undergone colon surgery. ^ Methods: Data for this dissertation was obtained from the American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP); major colon surgeries were identified in the database that occurred between the time period of 2007 and 2009. NSQIP data includes more than 50 preoperative and 30 intraoperative factors; 40 collected postoperative occurrences are based on a follow-up period of 30 days from surgery. Initially, four individual logistic regressions were modeled to compare the associations between risk factors and each of the SSI groups: superficial, deep, organ/space and a composite of any single SSI. A second analysis used polytomous regression to assess simultaneously the associations between risk factors and the different types of SSIs, as well as, formally test the different effect estimates of 13 common risk factors for SSIs. The final analysis explored the association between venous thromboembolism (VTEs) and the different types of SSIs and risk factors. ^ Results: A total of 59,365 colon surgeries were included in the study. Overall, 13% of colon cases developed a single type of SSI; 8% of these were superficial SSIs, 1.4% was deep SSIs, and 3.8% were organ/space SSIs. The first article identifies the unique set of risk factors associated with each of the 4 SSI models. Distinct risk factors for superficial SSIs included factors, such as alcohol, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dyspnea and diabetes. Organ/space SSIs were uniquely associated with disseminated cancer, preoperative dialysis, preoperative radiation treatment, bleeding disorder and prior surgery. Risk factors that were significant in all models had different effect estimates. The second article assesses 13 common SSI risk factors simultaneously across the 3 different types of SSIs using polytomous regression. Then each risk factor was formally tested for the effect heterogeneity exhibited. If the test was significant the final model would allow for the effect estimations for that risk factor to vary across each type of SSI; if the test was not significant, the effect estimate would remain constant across the types of SSIs using the aggregate SSI value. The third article explored the relationship of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and the individual types of SSIs and risk factors. The overall incidence of VTEs after the 59,365 colon cases was 2.4%. All 3 types of SSIs and several risk factors were independently associated with the development of VTEs. ^ Conclusions: Risk factors associated with each type of SSI were different in patients that have undergone colon surgery. Each model had a unique cluster of risk factors. Several risk factors, including increased BMI, duration of surgery, wound class, and laparoscopic approach, were significant across all 4 models but no statistical inferences can be made about their different effect estimates. These results suggest that aggregating SSIs may misattribute and hide true associations with risk factors. Using polytomous regression to assess multiple risk factors with the multiple types of SSI, this study was able to identify several risk factors that had significant effect heterogeneity across the 3 types of SSI challenging the use of aggregate SSI outcomes. The third article recognizes the strong association between VTEs and the 3 types of SSIs. Clinicians understand the difference between superficial, deep and organ/space SSIs. Our results indicate that they should be considered individually in future studies.^