The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States

The 1982–1994 National Long-Term Care Surveys indicate an accelerating decline in disability among the U.S. elderly population, suggesting that a 1.5% annual decline in chronic disability for elderly persons is achievable. Furthermore, many risk factors for chronic diseases show improvements, many linked to education, from 1910 to the present. Projections indicate the proportion of persons aged 85–89 with less than 8 years of education will decline from 65% in 1980 to 15% in 2015. Health and socioeconomic status trends are not directly represented in Medicare Trust Fund and Social Security Administration beneficiary projections. Thus, they may have different economic implications from projections directly accounting for health trends. A 1.5% annual disability decline keeps the support ratio (ratio of economically active persons aged 20–64 to the number of chronically disabled persons aged 65+) above its 1994 value, 22:1, when the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund was in fiscal balance, to 2070. With no changes in disability, projections indicate a support ratio in 2070 of 8:1—63% below a cash flow balance.

Northeastern United States, 1799 : showing township grants and land purchases in New York (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Map of the middle states of North America : shewing the position of the Geneseo country comprehending the counties of Ontario & Steuben as laid off in townships of six miles squar[e] each, Maverick, sculpt. It was printed by T. & J. Swords for Charles Williamson's Description of the settlement of the Genesee country, in the state of New-York, 1799. Scale [ca. 1:2,250,000]. Partial cadastral map showing large land purchases and township grants in New York State. Covers New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Washington, D.C. and portions of Maryland, Delaware, and West Virginia. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) Zone 18N NAD83 projection. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, drainage, major cities and towns, land purchases, township grants, state boundaries, and more. Includes key to "principal villages in Ontario & Steuben counties." This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.