The quest for temperature records in California free of urban heat island effects [abstract, figures, and tables]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The data of this paper differ from the Jones and Bradley papers [of 1982-1986] in that it represents an attempt to select thermal pollution free records rather than to include all available records. The specific long-term trends that this paper is trying to avoid are those illustrated by the heat islands of fast growing urban locations. One other major difference in this paper is that all of the records reported of this study are complete for the entire study period.

Climate resilience of schools: a case study

Social and political concerns are frequently reflected in the design of school buildings, often in turn leading to the development of technical innovations. One example is a recurrent concern about the physical health of the nation, which has at several points over the last century prompted new design approaches to natural light and ventilation. The most critical concern of the current era is the global, rather than the indoor, environment. The resultant political focus on mitigating climate change has resulted in new regulations, and in turn considerable technical changes in building design and construction. The vanguard of this movement has again been in school buildings, set the highest targets for reducing operational carbon by the previous Government. The current austerity measures have moved the focus to the refurbishment and retrofit of existing buildings, in order to bring them up to the exacting new standards. Meanwhile there is little doubt that climate change is happening already, and that the impacts will be considerable. Climate scientists have increasing confidence in their predictions for the future; if today’s buildings are to be resilient to these changes, building designers will need to understand and design for the predicted climates in order to continue to provide comfortable and healthy spaces through the lifetimes of the buildings. This paper describes the decision processes, and the planned design measures, for adapting an existing school for future climates. The project is at St Faith’s School in Cambridge, and focuses on three separate buildings: a large Victorian block built as a substantial domestic dwelling in 1885, a smaller single storey 1970s block with a new extension, and an as-yet unbuilt single storey block designed to passivhaus principles and using environmentally friendly materials. The implications of climate change have been considered for the three particular issues of comfort, construction, and water, as set out in the report on Design for Future Climate: opportunities for adaptation in the built environment (Gething, 2010). The adaptation designs aim to ensure each of the three very different buildings remains fit for purpose throughout the 21st century, continuing to provide a healthy environment for the children. A forth issue, the reduction of carbon and the mitigation of other negative environmental impacts of the construction work, is also a fundamental aim for the school and the project team. Detailed modelling of both the operational and embodied energy and carbon of the design options is therefore being carried out, in order that the whole life carbon costs of the adaptation design options may be minimised. The project has been funded by the Technology Strategy Board as part of the Design for Future Climates programme; the interdisciplinary team includes the designers working on the current school building projects and the school bursar, supported by researchers from the University of Cambridge Centre for Sustainable Development. It is hoped that lessons from the design process, as well as the solutions themselves, will be transferable to other buildings in similar climatic regions.

Briefing: Re-Engineering the City 2020-2050 - Urban Foresight and Transition Management

Cities may be responsible for up to 70% of global carbon emissions and 75% of global energy consumption and by 2050 it is estimated that 70% of the world's population could live in cities. The critical challenge for contemporary urbanism, therefore, is to understand how to develop the knowledge, capacity and capability for public agencies, the private sector and multiple users in city regions systemically to re-engineer their built environment and urban infrastructure in response to climate change and resource constraints. Re-Engineering the City 2020-2050: Urban Foresight and Transition Management (Retrofit 2050) is a major new interdisciplinary project funded under the Engineering and Physical Science Research Council's (EPSRC) Sustainable Urban Environments Programme which seeks to address this challenge. This briefing describes the background and conceptual framing of Retrofit 2050 project, its aims and objectives and research approach.

The toxicology of climate change: environmental contaminants in a warming world.

Climate change induced by anthropogenic warming of the earth's atmosphere is a daunting problem. This review examines one of the consequences of climate change that has only recently attracted attention: namely, the effects of climate change on the environmental distribution and toxicity of chemical pollutants. A review was undertaken of the scientific literature (original research articles, reviews, government and intergovernmental reports) focusing on the interactions of toxicants with the environmental parameters, temperature, precipitation, and salinity, as altered by climate change. Three broad classes of chemical toxicants of global significance were the focus: air pollutants, persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including some organochlorine pesticides, and other classes of pesticides. Generally, increases in temperature will enhance the toxicity of contaminants and increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone regionally, but will also likely increase rates of chemical degradation. While further research is needed, climate change coupled with air pollutant exposures may have potentially serious adverse consequences for human health in urban and polluted regions. Climate change producing alterations in: food webs, lipid dynamics, ice and snow melt, and organic carbon cycling could result in increased POP levels in water, soil, and biota. There is also compelling evidence that increasing temperatures could be deleterious to pollutant-exposed wildlife. For example, elevated water temperatures may alter the biotransformation of contaminants to more bioactive metabolites and impair homeostasis. The complex interactions between climate change and pollutants may be particularly problematic for species living at the edge of their physiological tolerance range where acclimation capacity may be limited. In addition to temperature increases, regional precipitation patterns are projected to be altered with climate change. Regions subject to decreases in precipitation may experience enhanced volatilization of POPs and pesticides to the atmosphere. Reduced precipitation will also increase air pollution in urbanized regions resulting in negative health effects, which may be exacerbated by temperature increases. Regions subject to increased precipitation will have lower levels of air pollution, but will likely experience enhanced surface deposition of airborne POPs and increased run-off of pesticides. Moreover, increases in the intensity and frequency of storm events linked to climate change could lead to more severe episodes of chemical contamination of water bodies and surrounding watersheds. Changes in salinity may affect aquatic organisms as an independent stressor as well as by altering the bioavailability and in some instances increasing the toxicity of chemicals. A paramount issue will be to identify species and populations especially vulnerable to climate-pollutant interactions, in the context of the many other physical, chemical, and biological stressors that will be altered with climate change. Moreover, it will be important to predict tipping points that might trigger or accelerate synergistic interactions between climate change and contaminant exposures.

Community structure, diversity and spatial organization of enchytraeids in Mediterranean urban holm oak stands

There is a strong northern bias in Europe as regards enchytraeid community ecology, particularly in urban settings. We approached the enchytraeid assemblages of urban holm oak stands in Naples and Siena adopting a high intensity sampling that, for the first time in the Mediterranean climate zone, would ensure that the data collected be representative of the target populations. Structural parameters (diversity and evenness, biomass, size classes, aggregation) were compared across different spatial (regional, urban district, within habitat) and temporal scales (season and year). Species richness was found to change significantly only at regional scale; background data suggest that this may depend on the higher environmental heterogeneity occurring at Naples. Differences in size class structure were significant only on a seasonal scale and within either city separately. With one exception (Fridericia bulbosa s.s.), the patterns of spatial aggregation of the common species were fairly robust and the total range of patchiness was consistent with previous studies, despite the different sampling methodologies. The size of the sampling unit, the number of replicates per plot and the number of plots proposed in this study appear suitable to obviate the difficulties of evaluating Mediterranean enchytraeid communities.

Experimental analysis of air flow profiles in a double skin facade in a maritime climate

Glazed Double Skin Facades (DSF) offer the potential to improve the performance of all-glass building skins, common to commercial office buildings in which full facade glazing has almost become the standard. Single skin glazing results in increased heating and cooling costs over opaque walls, due to lower thermal resistance of glass, and the increased impact of solar gain through it. However, the performance benefit of DSF technology continues to be questioned and its operation poorly understood, particularly the nature of airflow through the cavity. This paper deals specifically with the experimental analysis of the air flow characteristics in an automated double skin façade. The benefit of the DSF as a thermal buffer, and to limit overheating is evaluated through analysis of an extensive set of parameters including air and surface temperatures at each level in the DSF, airflow readings in the cavity and at the inlet and outlet, solar and wind data, and analytically derived pressure differentials. The temperature and air-flow are monitored in the cavity of a DSF using wireless sensors and hot wire anemometers respectively. Automated louvre operation and building set-points are monitored via the BMS. Thermal stratification and air flow variation during changing weather conditions are shown to effect the performance of the DSF considerably and hence the energy performance of the building. The relative pressure effects due to buoyancy and wind are analysed and quantified. This research aims to developed and validate models of DSFs in the maritime climate, using multi-season data from experimental monitoring. This extensive experimental study provides data for training and validation of models.

Characterization of water-soluble organic matter from urban aerosols

Water-soluble organic matter (WSOM) from atmospheric particles comprises a complex array of molecular structures that play an important role on the physic-chemical properties of atmospheric particles and, therefore, are linked to several global-relevant atmospheric processes which impact the climate and public health. Due to the large variety of sources and formation processes, adequate knowledge on WSOM composition and its effects on the properties of atmospheric aerosol are still limited. Therefore, this thesis aims at providing new insights on the molecular composition of WSOM from fine atmospheric aerosols typical of an urban area (Aveiro, Portugal). In a first step, adsorption phenomena of semivolatile organic compounds on quartz fibre filters employed in the collection of atmospheric aerosols were assessed. Afterwards, atmospheric aerosol samples were collected during fifteen months, on a weekly basis. A mass balance of aerosol samples was performed in order to set the relative contribution of elemental carbon, WSOM and water-insoluble organic matter to the aerosol mass collected at the urban area of Aveiro, with a special focus on the assessment of the influence of different meteorological conditions. In order to assess the chemical complexity of the WSOM from urban aerosols, their structural characteristics were studied by means of Fourier transform infrared infrared - Attenuated Total Reflectance (FTIR-ATR) and solid-state cross polarization with magic angle spinning 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (CPMAS 13C NMR) spectroscopies, as well as their elemental composition. The structural characterization of aerosol WSOM samples collected in the urban area highlighted a highly complex mixture of functional groups. It was concluded that aliphatic and aromatic structures, hydroxyl groups and carboxyl groups are characteristic to all samples. The semi-quantitative assessment of the CPMAS 13C NMR data showed different distributions of the various functional groups between the aerosol samples collected at different seasons. Moreover, the presence of signals typical of lignin-derived structures in both CPMAS 13C NMR and FTIR-ATR spectra of the WSOM samples from the colder seasons, highlights the major contribution of biomass burning processes in domestic fireplaces, during low temperature conditions, into the bulk chemical properties of WSOM from urban aerosols. A comprehensive two-dimensional liquid chromatography (LC x LC) method, on-line coupled to a diode array, fluorescence, and evaporative light scattering detectors, was employed for resolving the chemical heterogeneity of the aerosol WSOM samples and, simultaneously, to map the hydrophobicity versus the molecular weight distribution of the samples. The LC x LC method employed a mixed-mode hydrophilic interaction column operating under aqueous reversed phase mode in the first dimension, and a size-exclusion column in the second dimension, which was found to be useful for separating the aerosol WSOM samples into various fractions with distinct molecular weight and hydrophobic features. The estimative of the average molecular weight (Mw) distribution of the urban aerosol WSOM samples ranged from 48 to 942 Da and from 45 to 1241 Da in terms of UV absorption and fluorescence detection, respectively. Findings suggest that smaller Mw group fractions seem to be related to a more hydrophobic nature.

Agricultural practices and horizontal nutrient balances in urban gardens and the alternative use of urban agricultural land in Khartoum, Sudan

The surge in the urban population evident in most developing countries is a worldwide phenomenon, and often the result of drought, conflicts, poverty and the lack of education opportunities. In parallel with the growth of the cities is the growing need for food which leads to the burgeoning expansion of urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA). In this context, urban agriculture (UA) contributes significantly to supplying local markets with both vegetable and animal produce. As an income generating activity, UA also contributes to the livelihoods of poor urban dwellers. In order to evaluate the nutrient status of urban soils in relation to garden management, this study assessed nutrient fluxes (inputs and outputs) in gardens on urban Gerif soils on the banks of the River Nile in Khartoum, the capital city of Sudan. To achieve this objective, a preliminary baseline survey was carried out to describe the structure of the existing garden systems. In cooperation with the author of another PhD thesis (Ms. Ishtiag Abdalla), alternative uses of cow dung in brick making kilns in urban Khartoum were assessed; and the socio-economic criteria of the brick kiln owners or agents, economical and plant nutritional value of animal dung and the gaseous emission related to brick making activities were assessed. A total of 40 household heads were interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire to collect information on demographic, socio-economic and migratory characteristics of the household members, the gardening systems used and the problems encountered in urban gardening. Based on the results of this survey, gardens were divided into three groups: mixed vegetable-fodder gardens, mixed vegetable-subsistence livestock gardens and pure vegetable gardens. The results revealed that UA is the exclusive domain of men, 80% of them non-native to Khartoum. The harvested produce in all gardens was market oriented and represented the main source of income for 83% of the gardeners. Fast growing leafy vegetables such as Jew’s mallow (Corchorous olitorius L.), purslane (Portulaca oleracea L.) and rocket (Eruca sativa Mill.) were the dominant cultivated species. Most of the gardens (95%) were continuously cultivated throughout the year without any fallow period, unless they were flooded. Gardeners were not generally aware of the importance of crop diversity, which may help them overcome the strongly fluctuating market prices for their produce and thereby strengthen the contributions of UA to the overall productivity of the city. To measure nutrient fluxes, four gardens were selected and their nutrients inputs and outputs flows were monitored. In each garden, all plots were monitored for quantification of nutrient inputs and outputs. To determine soil chemical fertility parameters in each of the studied gardens, soil samples were taken from three selected plots at the beginning of the study in October 2007 (gardens L1, L2 and H1) and in April 2008 (garden H2) and at the end of the study period in March 2010. Additional soil sampling occurred in May 2009 to assess changes in the soil nutrient status after the River Nile flood of 2008 had receded. Samples of rain and irrigation water (river and well-water) were analyzed for nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K) and carbon (C) content to determine their nutrient inputs. Catchment traps were installed to quantify the sediment yield from the River Nile flood. To quantify the nutrient inputs of sediments, samples were analyzed for N, P, K and organic carbon (Corg) content, cation exchange capacity (CEC) and the particle size distribution. The total nutrient inputs were calculated by multiplying the sediment nutrient content by total sediment deposits on individual gardens. Nutrient output in the form of harvested yield was quantified at harvest of each crop. Plant samples from each field were dried, and analyzed for their N, P, K and Corg content. Cumulative leaching losses of mineral N and P were estimated in a single plot in garden L1 from December 1st 2008 to July 1st 2009 using 12 ion exchange resins cartridges. Nutrients were extracted and analyzed for nitrate (NO3--N), ammonium (NH4+-N) and phosphate PO4-3-P. Changes in soil nutrient balance were assessed as inputs minus outputs. The results showed that across gardens, soil N and P concentrations increased from 2007 to 2009, while particle size distribution remained unchanged. Sediment loads and their respective contents of N, P and Corg decreased significantly (P < 0.05) from the gardens of the downstream lowlands (L1 and L2) to the gardens of the upstream highlands (H1 and H2). No significant difference was found in K deposits. None of the gardens received organic fertilizers and the only mineral fertilizer applied was urea (46-0-0). This equaled 29, 30, 54, and 67% of total N inputs to gardens L1, L2, H1, and H2, respectively. Sediment deposits of the River Nile floods contributed on average 67, 94, 6 and 42% to the total N, P, K and C inputs in lowland gardens and 33, 86, 4 and 37% of total N, P, K and C inputs in highland gardens. Irrigation water and rainfall contributed substantially to K inputs representing 96, 92, 94 and 96% of total K influxes in garden L1, L2, H1 and H2, respectively. Following the same order, total annual DM yields in the gardens were 26, 18, 16 and 1.8 t ha-1. Annual leaching losses were estimated to be 0.02 kg NH4+-N ha-1 (SE = 0.004), 0.03 kg NO3--N ha-1 (SE = 0.002) and 0.005 kg PO4-3-P ha-1 (SE = 0.0007). Differences between nutrient inputs and outputs indicated negative nutrient balances for P and K and positive balances of N and C for all gardens. The negative balances in P and K call for adoptions of new agricultural techniques such as regular manure additions or mulching which may enhance the soil organic matter status. A quantification of fluxes not measured in our study such as N2-fixation, dry deposition and gaseous emissions of C and N would be necessary to comprehensively assess the sustainability of these intensive gardening systems. The second part of the survey dealt with the brick making kilns. A total of 50 brick kiln owners/or agents were interviewed from July to August 2009, using a semi-structured questionnaire. The data collected included general information such as age, family size, education, land ownership, number of kilns managed and/or owned, number of months that kilns were in operation, quantity of inputs (cow dung and fuel wood) used, prices of inputs and products across the production season. Information related to the share value of the land on which the kilns were built and annual income for urban farmers and annual returns from dung for the animal raisers was also collected. Using descriptive statistics, budget calculation and Gini coefficient, the results indicated that renting the land to brick making kilns yields a 5-fold higher return than the rent for agriculture. Gini coefficient showed that the kiln owners had a more equal income distribution compared to farmers. To estimate emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and losses of N, P, K, Corg and DM from cow dung when used in brick making, samples of cow dung (loose and compacted) were collected from different kilns and analyzed for their N, P, K and Corg content. The procedure modified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1994) was used to estimate the gaseous emissions of cow dung and fuel wood. The amount of deforested wood was estimated according to the default values for wood density given by Dixon et al. (1991) and the expansion ratio for branches and small trees given by Brown et al. (1989). The data showed the monetary value of added N and P from cow dung was lower than for mineral fertilizers. Annual consumption of compacted dung (381 t DM) as biomass fuel by far exceeded the consumption of fuel wood (36 t DM). Gaseous emissions from cow dung and fuel wood were dominated by CO2, CO and CH4. Considering that Gerif land in urban Khartoum supports a multifunctional land use system, efficient use of natural resources (forest, dung, land and water) will enhance the sustainability of the UA and brick making activities. Adoption of new kilns with higher energy efficiency will reduce the amount of biomass fuels (cow dung and wood) used the amount of GHGs emitted and the threat to the few remaining forests.

Strategies for coping with feed scarcity among urban and peri-urban livestock farmers in Kampala, Uganda

Livestock keeping is increasingly becoming more popular in Kampala, the capital city of Uganda. However, lack of feed is a real challenge. Inadequate feed supply in urban areas is due to many interacting factors, which include among others land shortage, high cost of feeds, climate risks and poor quality of feeds. The objective of this study was to identify and examine the effectiveness of the strategies adopted by livestock farmers in urban and peri-urban areas of Kampala, Uganda to cope with feed scarcity. A total of 120 livestock farmers from Kampala were interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Dairy cattle (48.3%) and chickens (37.5%) were the most common species, followed by pigs (34.2%), goats (26.7%) and sheep (3.3%). Farm size was generally small both in terms of herd size and total landholding. Cattle and pig farmers in urban and peri-urban areas of Kampala ranked feed scarcity as their first major constraint, while chicken farmers had high cost of feeds. These farmers have adopted several strategies for coping with feed scarcity. Among the major coping strategies adopted were: changing of feed resources based on availability and cost (37.5%), purchasing of feed ingredients in bulk (29.7%), using crop/food wastes (26.6%), harvesting of forages growing naturally in open access lands (23.4%) and reducing herd size (17.2%). However, most of the coping strategies adopted were largely aimed at dealing with the perennial challenge of feed scarcity on a day-by-day basis rather than dealing with it using sustainable and long-term strategies.

Effects of Air Pollution Control on Climate

Urban air pollution and climate are closely connected due to shared generating processes (e.g., combustion) for emissions of the driving gases and aerosols. They are also connected because the atmospheric lifecycles of common air pollutants such as CO, NOx and VOCs, and of the climatically important methane gas (CH4) and sulfate aerosols, both involve the fast photochemistry of the hydroxyl free radical (OH). Thus policies designed to address air pollution may impact climate and vice versa. We present calculations using a model coupling economics, atmospheric chemistry, climate and ecosystems to illustrate some effects of air pollution policy alone on global warming. We consider caps on emissions of NOx, CO, volatile organic carbon, and SOx both individually and combined in two ways. These caps can lower ozone causing less warming, lower sulfate aerosols yielding more warming, lower OH and thus increase CH4 giving more warming, and finally, allow more carbon uptake by ecosystems leading to less warming. Overall, these effects significantly offset each other suggesting that air pollution policy has a relatively small net effect on the global mean surface temperature and sea level rise. However, our study does not account for the effects of air pollution policies on overall demand for fossil fuels and on the choice of fuels (coal, oil, gas), nor have we considered the effects of caps on black carbon or organic carbon aerosols on climate. These effects, if included, could lead to more substantial impacts of capping pollutant emissions on global temperature and sea level than concluded here. Caps on aerosols in general could also yield impacts on other important aspects of climate beyond those addressed here, such as the regional patterns of cloudiness and precipitation.

A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality

It is now accepted that some human-induced climate change is unavoidable. Potential impacts on water supply have received much attention, but relatively little is known about the concomitant changes in water quality. Projected changes in air temperature and rainfall could affect river flows and, hence, the mobility and dilution of contaminants. Increased water temperatures will affect chemical reaction kinetics and, combined with deteriorations in quality, freshwater ecological status. With increased flows there will be changes in stream power and, hence, sediment loads with the potential to alter the morphology of rivers and the transfer of sediments to lakes, thereby impacting freshwater habitats in both lake and stream systems. This paper reviews such impacts through the lens of UK surface water quality. Widely accepted climate change scenarios suggest more frequent droughts in summer, as well as flash-flooding, leading to uncontrolled discharges from urban areas to receiving water courses and estuaries. Invasion by alien species is highly likely, as is migration of species within the UK adapting to changing temperatures and flow regimes. Lower flows, reduced velocities and, hence, higher water residence times in rivers and lakes will enhance the potential for toxic algal blooms and reduce dissolved oxygen levels. Upland streams could experience increased dissolved organic carbon and colour levels, requiring action at water treatment plants to prevent toxic by-products entering public water supplies. Storms that terminate drought periods will flush nutrients from urban and rural areas or generate acid pulses in acidified upland catchments. Policy responses to climate change, such as the growth of bio-fuels or emission controls, will further impact freshwater quality.

A baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change

This report forms part of a larger research programme on 'Reinterpreting the Urban-Rural Continuum', which conceptualises and investigates current knowledge and research gaps concerning 'the role that ecosystems services play in the livelihoods of the poor in regions undergoing rapid change'. The report aims to conduct a baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. The appraisal is conducted at three spatial scales: global, regional (four consortia areas), and meso scale (case studies within the four regions). At all three scales of analysis water resources form the interweaving theme because water provides a vital provisioning service for people, supports all other ecosystem processes and because water resources are forecast to be severely affected under climate change scenarios. This report, combined with an Endnote library of over 1100 scientific papers, provides an annotated bibliography of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. After an introductory, section, Section 2 of the report defines water-related ecosystem services and how these are affected by human activities. Current knowledge and research gaps are then explored in relation to global scale climate and related hydrological changes (e.g. floods, droughts, flow regimes) (section 3). The report then discusses the impacts of climate changes on the ESPA regions, emphasising potential responses of biomes to the combined effects of climate change and human activities (particularly land use and management), and how these effects coupled with water store and flow regime manipulation by humans may affect the functioning of catchments and their ecosystem services (section 4). Finally, at the meso-scale, case studies are presented from within the ESPA regions to illustrate the close coupling of human activities and catchment performance in the context of environmental change (section 5). At the end of each section, research needs are identified and justified. These research needs are then amalgamated in section 6.

Simulation of urban microclimates

Urban microclimates are greatly affected by urban form and texture and have a significant impact on building energy performance. The impact of urban form on energy consumption in buildings mainly relates to the availability of the uses of solar radiation, daylighting and natural ventilation. The urban heat island (UHI) effect increases the risk of overheating in buildings as well as the maximum energy demand for cooling. A need has arisen for a robust calculation tool (using the first-cut calculation method) to enable planners, architects and environmental assessors, to quickly and accurately compare the impact of different urban forms on local climate and UHI mitigation strategies. This paper describes a tool for the simulation of urban microclimates, which is developed by integrating image processing with a coupled thermal and airflow model.

Implications of climate change for expanding cities worldwide

This paper analyses the trends of the changing environmental effects within growing megacities as their diameters exceed 50–100 km and their populations rise beyond 30 million people. The authors consider how these effects are influenced by climate change, to which urban areas themselves contribute, caused by their increasing greenhouse gas emissions associated with rapidly expanding energy use. Other environmental and social factors are assessed, quantitatively and qualitatively, using detailed modelling of urban mesoscale meteorology, which shows how these factors can lead to large conurbations becoming more vulnerable to climatic and environmental hazards. The paper discusses the likely changes in meteorological and hydrological hazards in urban areas, both as the climate changes and the sizes of urban areas grow. Examples are given of how these risks are being reduced through innovations in warning and response systems, planning and infrastructure design, which should include refuges against extreme natural disasters. Policies are shown to be more effective when they are integrated and based on substantial community involvement. Some conclusions are drawn regarding how policies for the natural and artificial environment and for reducing many kinds of climate and hazard risk are related to future designs and planning of infrastructure and open spaces.

Sustainable urban development to 2050: complex transitions in the built environment of cities

The majority of the world’s population now live in cities. This poses great challenges, but also great opportunities in terms of tackling climate change, resource depletion and environmental degradation. Policy agendas have increasingly focused on how to develop and maintain ‘integrated sustainable urban development’, and a number of theoretical conceptualisations of urban transition have been formulated to help our thinking and understanding in both developed and developing countries. Drawing on examples around the world the paper aims to examine the key ‘critical success factors’ that need to be in place for cities to traverse a pathway to a more sustainable future in urban development terms by 2050. The paper explores how important the issues of ‘scale’ is in the context of complexity and fragmentation in the city’s built environment, identifies the lessons that can be learned for future sustainable urban development, and the further research which is needed to address future urban transitions to 2050.