Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

An ancient duplication of apple MYB transcription factors is responsible for novel red fruit-flesh phenotyp

Anthocyanin accumulation is coordinated in plants by a number of conserved transcription factors. In apple (Malus × domestica), an R2R3 MYB transcription factor has been shown to control fruit flesh and foliage anthocyanin pigmentation (MYB10) and fruit skin color (MYB1). However, the pattern of expression and allelic variation at these loci does not explain all anthocyanin-related apple phenotypes. One such example is an open-pollinated seedling of cv Sangrado that has green foliage and develops red flesh in the fruit cortex late in maturity. We used methods that combine plant breeding, molecular biology, and genomics to identify duplicated MYB transcription factors that could control this phenotype. We then demonstrated that the red-flesh cortex phenotype is associated with enhanced expression of MYB110a, a paralog of MYB10. Functional characterization of MYB110a showed that it was able to up-regulate anthocyanin biosynthesis in tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum). The chromosomal location of MYB110a is consistent with a whole-genome duplication event that occurred during the evolution of apple within the Maloideae family. Both MYB10 and MYB110a have conserved function in some cultivars, but they differ in their expression pattern and response to fruit maturity.

Red colouration in apple fruit is due to the activity of the MYB transcription factor, MdMYB10

Anthocyanin concentration is an important determinant of the colour of many fruits. In apple (Malus x domestica), centuries of breeding have produced numerous varieties in which levels of anthocyanin pigment vary widely and change in response to environmental and developmental stimuli. The apple fruit cortex is usually colourless, although germplasm does exist where the cortex is highly pigmented due to the accumulation of either anthocyanins or carotenoids. From studies in a diverse array of plant species, it is apparent that anthocyanin biosynthesis is controlled at the level of transcription. Here we report the transcript levels of the anthocyanin biosynthetic genes in a red-fleshed apple compared with a white-fleshed cultivar. We also describe an apple MYB transcription factor, MdMYB10, that is similar in sequence to known anthocyanin regulators in other species. We further show that this transcription factor can induce anthocyanin accumulation in both heterologous and homologous systems, generating pigmented patches in transient assays in tobacco leaves and highly pigmented apple plants following stable transformation with constitutively expressed MdMYB10. Efficient induction of anthocyanin biosynthesis in transient assays by MdMYB10 was dependent on the co-expression of two distinct bHLH proteins from apple, MdbHLH3 and MdbHLH33. The strong correlation between the expression of MdMYB10 and apple anthocyanin levels during fruit development suggests that this transcription factor is responsible for controlling anthocyanin biosynthesis in apple fruit; in the red-fleshed cultivar and in the skin of other varieties, there is an induction of MdMYB10 expression concurrent with colour formation during development. Characterization of MdMYB10 has implications for the development of new varieties through classical breeding or a biotechnological approach.

MYB transcription factors that colour our fruit

Anthocyanin concentration is a primary determinant of plant colour. Fruit anthocyanin biosynthesis is controlled by a distinct clade of R2R3 MYB transcription factors. In apple, three recent papers describe the discovery of MYB genes activating skin, flesh and foliage anthocyanic colour. These findings lead the way to new approaches in the breeding and biotechnological development of fruit with new colour patterns.

The role of ethylene and cold temperature in the regulation of the apple POLYGALACTURONASE1 gene and fruit softening

Fruit softening in apple (Malus 3 domestica) is associated with an increase in the ripening hormone ethylene. Here, we show that in cv Royal Gala apples that have the ethylene biosynthetic gene ACC OXIDASE1 suppressed, a cold treatment preconditions the apples to soften independently of added ethylene. When a cold treatment is followed by an ethylene treatment, a more rapid softening occurs than in apples that have not had a cold treatment. Apple fruit softening has been associated with the increase in the expression of cell wall hydrolase genes. One such gene, POLYGALACTURONASE1 (PG1), increases in expression both with ethylene and following a cold treatment. Transcriptional regulation of PG1 through the ethylene pathway is likely to be through an ETHYLENE-INSENSITIVE3-like transcription factor, which increases in expression during apple fruit development and transactivates the PG1 promoter in transient assays in the presence of ethylene. A coldrelated gene that resembles a COLD BINDING FACTOR (CBF) class of gene also transactivates the PG1 promoter. The transactivation by the CBF-like gene is greatly enhanced by the addition of exogenous ethylene. These observations give a possible molecular mechanism for the coldand ethylene-regulated control of fruit softening and suggest that either these two pathways act independently and synergistically with each other or cold enhances the ethylene response such that background levels of ethylene in the ethylene-suppressed apples is sufficient to induce fruit softening in apples.

High temperature reduces apple fruit colour via modulation of the anthocyanin regulatory complex

The biosynthesis of anthocyanin in many plants is affected by environmental conditions. In apple (Malus×domestica Borkh.), concentrations of fruit anthocyanins are lower under hot climatic conditions. We examined the anthocyanin accumulation in the peel of maturing 'Mondial Gala' and 'Royal Gala' apples, grown in both temperate and hot climates, and using artificial heating of on-tree fruit. Heat caused a dramatic reduction of both peel anthocyanin concentration and transcripts of the genes of the anthocyanin biosynthetic pathway. Heating fruit rapidly reduced expression of the R2R3 MYB transcription factor (MYB10) responsible for coordinative regulation for red skin colour, as well as expression of other genes in the transcriptional activation complex. A single night of low temperatures is sufficient to elicit a large increase in transcription of MYB10 and consequently the biosynthetic pathway. Candidate genes that can repress anthocyanin biosynthesis did not appear to be responsible for reductions in anthocyanin content. We propose that temperature-induced regulation of anthocyanin biosynthesis is primarily caused by altered transcript levels of the activating anthocyanin regulatory complex.

Transcriptional analysis of apple fruit proanthocyanidin biosynthesis

Proanthocyanidins (PAs) are products of the flavonoid pathway, which also leads to the production of anthocyanins and flavonols. Many flavonoids have antioxidant properties and may have beneficial effects for human health. PAs are found in the seeds and fruits of many plants. In apple fruit (Malus × domestica Borkh.), the flavonoid biosynthetic pathway is most active in the skin, with the flavan-3-ols, catechin, and epicatechin acting as the initiating units for the synthesis of PA polymers. This study examined the genes involved in the production of PAs in three apple cultivars: two heritage apple cultivars, Hetlina and Devonshire Quarrenden, and a commercial cultivar, Royal Gala. HPLC analysis shows that tree-ripe fruit from Hetlina and Devonshire Quarrenden had a higher phenolic content than Royal Gala. Epicatechin and catechin biosynthesis is under the control of the biosynthetic enzymes anthocyanidin reductase (ANR) and leucoanthocyanidin reductase (LAR1), respectively. Counter-intuitively, real-time quantitative PCR analysis showed that the expression levels of Royal Gala LAR1 and ANR were significantly higher than those of both Devonshire Quarrenden and Hetlina. This suggests that a compensatory feedback mechanism may be active, whereby low concentrations of PAs may induce higher expression of gene transcripts. Further investigation is required into the regulation of these key enzymes in apple.

The kiwifruit lycopene beta-cyclase plays a significant role in carotenoid accumulation in fruit

The composition of carotenoids, along with anthocyanins and chlorophyll, accounts for the distinctive range of colour found in the Actinidia (kiwifruit) species. Lutein and beta-carotene are the most abundant carotenoids found during fruit development, with beta-carotene concentration increasing rapidly during fruit maturation and ripening. In addition, the accumulation of beta-carotene and lutein is influenced by the temperature at which harvested fruit are stored. Expression analysis of carotenoid biosynthetic genes among different genotypes and fruit developmental stages identified Actinidia lycopene beta-cyclase (LCY-β) as the gene whose expression pattern appeared to be associated with both total carotenoid and beta-carotene accumulation. Phytoene desaturase (PDS) expression was the least variable among the different genotypes, while zeta carotene desaturase (ZDS), beta-carotene hydroxylase (CRH-β), and epsilon carotene hydroxylase (CRH-ε) showed some variation in gene expression. The LCY-β gene was functionally tested in bacteria and shown to convert lycopene and delta-carotene to beta-carotene and alpha-carotene respectively. This indicates that the accumulation of beta-carotene, the major carotenoid in these kiwifruit species, appears to be controlled by the level of expression of LCY-β gene.

Conceptualising, evaluating and reporting social resilience in vulnerable regional and remote communities facing climate change in tropical Queensland : marine and tropical sciences research facility transition project final report

Regional and remote communities in tropical Queensland are among Australia’s most vulnerable in the face of climate change. At the same time, these socially and economically vulnerable regions house some of Australia’s most significant biodiversity values. Past approaches to terrestrial biodiversity management have focused on tackling biophysical interventions through the use of biophysical knowledge. An equally important focus should be placed on building regional-scale community resilience if some of the worst biodiversity impacts of climate change are to be avoided or mitigated. Despite its critical need, more systemic or holistic approaches to natural resource management have been rarely trialed and tested in a structured way. Currently, most strategic interventions in improving regional community resilience are ad hoc, not theory-based and short term. Past planning approaches have not been durable, nor have they been well informed by clear indicators. Research into indicators for community resilience has been poorly integrated within adaptive planning and management cycles. This project has aimed to resolve this problem by: * Reviewing the community and social resilience and adaptive planning literature to reconceptualise an improved framework for applying community resilience concepts; * Harvesting and extending work undertaken in MTSRF Phase 1 to identifying the learnings emerging from past MTSRF research; * Distilling these findings to identify new theoretical and practical approaches to the application of community resilience in natural resource use and management; * Reconsidering the potential interplay between a region’s biophysical and social planning processes, with a focus on exploring spatial tools to communicate climate change risk and its consequent environmental, economic and social impacts, and; * Trialling new approaches to indicator development and adaptive planning to improve community resilience, using a sub-regional pilot in the Wet Tropics. In doing so, we also looked at ways to improve the use and application of relevant spatial information. Our theoretical review drew upon the community development, psychology and emergency management literature to better frame the concept of community resilience relative to aligned concepts of social resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Firstly, we consider community resilience as a concept that can be considered at a range of scales (e.g. regional, locality, communities of interest, etc.). We also consider that overall resilience at higher scales will be influenced by resilience levels at lesser scales (inclusive of the resilience of constituent institutions, families and individuals). We illustrate that, at any scale, resilience and vulnerability are not necessarily polar opposites, and that some understanding of vulnerability is important in determining resilience. We position social resilience (a concept focused on the social characteristics of communities and individuals) as an important attribute of community resilience, but one that needs to be considered alongside economic, natural resource, capacity-based and governance attributes. The findings from the review of theory and MTSRF Phase 1 projects were synthesized and refined by the wider project team. Five predominant themes were distilled from this literature, research review and an expert analysis. They include the findings that: 1. Indicators have most value within an integrated and adaptive planning context, requiring an active co-research relationship between community resilience planners, managers and researchers if real change is to be secured; 2. Indicators of community resilience form the basis for planning for social assets and the resilience of social assets is directly related the longer term resilience of natural assets. This encourages and indeed requires the explicit development and integration of social planning within a broader natural resource planning and management framework; 3. Past indicator research and application has not provided a broad picture of the key attributes of community resilience and there have been many attempts to elicit lists of “perfect” indicators that may never be useful within the time and resource limitations of real world regional planning and management. We consider that modeling resilience for proactive planning and prediction purposes requires the consideration of simple but integrated clusters of attributes; 4. Depending on time and resources available for planning and management, the combined use of well suited indicators and/or other lesser “lines of evidence” is more flexible than the pursuit of perfect indicators, and that; 5. Index-based, collaborative and participatory approaches need to be applied to the development, refinement and reporting of indicators over longer time frames. We trialed the practical application of these concepts via the establishment of a collaborative regional alliance of planners and managers involved in the development of climate change adaptation strategies across tropical Queensland (the Gulf, Wet Tropics, Cape York and Torres Strait sub-regions). A focus on the Wet Tropics as a pilot sub-region enabled other Far North Queensland sub-region’s to participate and explore the potential extension of this approach. The pilot activities included: * Further exploring ways to innovatively communicate the region’s likely climate change scenarios and possible environmental, economic and social impacts. We particularly looked at using spatial tools to overlay climate change risks to geographic communities and social vulnerabilities within those communities; * Developing a cohesive first pass of a State of the Region-style approach to reporting community resilience, inclusive of regional economic viability, community vitality, capacitybased and governance attributes. This framework integrated a literature review, expert (academic and community) and alliance-based contributions; and * Early consideration of critical strategies that need to be included in unfolding regional planning activities with Far North Queensland. The pilot assessment finds that rural, indigenous and some urban populations in the Wet Tropics are highly vulnerable and sensitive to climate change and may require substantial support to adapt and become more resilient. This assessment finds that under current conditions (i.e. if significant adaptation actions are not taken) the Wet Tropics as a whole may be seriously impacted by the most significant features of climate change and extreme climatic events. Without early and substantive action, this could result in declining social and economic wellbeing and natural resource health. Of the four attributes we consider important to understanding community resilience, the Wet Tropics region is particularly vulnerable in two areas; specifically its economic vitality and knowledge, aspirations and capacity. The third and fourth attributes, community vitality and institutional governance are relatively resilient but are vulnerable in some key respects. In regard to all four of these attributes, however, there is some emerging capacity to manage the possible shocks that may be associated with the impacts of climate change and extreme climatic events. This capacity needs to be carefully fostered and further developed to achieve broader community resilience outcomes. There is an immediate need to build individual, household, community and sectoral resilience across all four attribute groups to enable populations and communities in the Wet Tropics region to adapt in the face of climate change. Preliminary strategies of importance to improve regional community resilience have been identified. These emerging strategies also have been integrated into the emerging Regional Development Australia Roadmap, and this will ensure that effective implementation will be progressed and coordinated. They will also inform emerging strategy development to secure implementation of the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan. Of most significance in our view, this project has taken a co-research approach from the outset with explicit and direct importance and influence within the region’s formal planning and management arrangements. As such, the research: * Now forms the foundations of the first attempt at “Social Asset” planning within the Wet Tropics Regional NRM Plan review; * Is assisting Local government at regional scale to consider aspects of climate change adaptation in emerging planning scheme/community planning processes; * Has partnered the State government (via the Department of Infrastructure and Planning and Regional Managers Coordination Network Chair) in progressing the Climate Change adaptation agenda set down within the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan; * Is informing new approaches to report on community resilience within the GBRMPA Outlook reporting framework; and * Now forms the foundation for the region’s wider climate change adaptation priorities in the Regional Roadmap developed by Regional Development Australia. Through the auspices of Regional Development Australia, the outcomes of the research will now inform emerging negotiations concerning a wider package of climate change adaptation priorities with State and Federal governments. Next stage research priorities are also being developed to enable an ongoing alliance between researchers and the region’s climate change response.

Overexpression of the kiwifruit SVP3 gene affects reproductive development and suppresses anthocyanin biosynthesis in petals, but has no effect on vegetative growth, dormancy, or flowering time

SVP-like MADS domain transcription factors have been shown to regulate flowering time and both inflorescence and flower development in annual plants, while having effects on growth cessation and terminal bud formation in perennial species. Previously, four SVP genes were described in woody perennial vine kiwifruit (Actinidia spp.), with possible distinct roles in bud dormancy and flowering. Kiwifruit SVP3 transcript was confined to vegetative tissues and acted as a repressor of flowering as it was able to rescue the Arabidopsis svp41 mutant. To characterize kiwifruit SVP3 further, ectopic expression in kiwifruit species was performed. Ectopic expression of SVP3 in A. deliciosa did not affect general plant growth or the duration of endodormancy. Ectopic expression of SVP3 in A. eriantha also resulted in plants with normal vegetative growth, bud break, and flowering time. However, significantly prolonged and abnormal flower, fruit, and seed development were observed, arising from SVP3 interactions with kiwifruit floral homeotic MADS-domain proteins. Petal pigmentation was reduced as a result of SVP3-mediated interference with transcription of the kiwifruit flower tissue-specific R2R3 MYB regulator, MYB110a, and the gene encoding the key anthocyanin biosynthetic step, F3GT1. Constitutive expression of SVP3 had a similar impact on reproductive development in transgenic tobacco. The flowering time was not affected in day-neutral and photoperiod-responsive Nicotiana tabacum cultivars, but anthesis and seed germination were significantly delayed. The accumulation of anthocyanin in petals was reduced and the same underlying mechanism of R2R3 MYB NtAN2 transcript reduction was demonstrated.

Maternal feeding self-efficacy and fruit and vegetable intakes in infants. Results from the SAIDI study

Adequate consumption of fruits and vegetables (FV) is a characteristic of a healthy diet but remains a challenge in nutrition interventions. This cross-sectional study explored the multi-directional relationships between maternal feeding self-efficacy, parenting confidence, child feeding behaviour, exposure to new food and FV intake in a cohort of 277 infants. Mothers with healthy infants weighing ≥2500 g and ≥37 weeks gestation were recruited post-natally from 11 South Australian hospitals. Socio-demographic datawere collected at recruitment. At 6 months postnatal, infantswereweighed and measured, andmothers completed a questionnaire exploring their perceptions of child feeding behaviour and child exposure to newfoods. The questionnaire also included the Short Temperament Scale for Infants, Kessler 10 to measure maternal psychological distress and 5 items measuring maternal feeding self-efficacy. The number of occasions and variety of FV (number of subgroups within food groups) consumed by infants were estimated from a 24-hour dietary recall and 2 days food record. Structural equation modellingwas performed using Mplus version 6.11. Median (IQR) variety scores were 2 (1–3) for fruit and 3 (2–5) for vegetable intake. The most popular FV consumed were apple (n = 108, 45.0%) and pumpkin (n = 143, 56.3%). None of the variables studied predicted the variety of child fruit intake. Parenting confidence, exposure to new foods and child feeding behaviourwere indirectly related to child vegetable intake through maternal feeding self-efficacy while total number of children negatively predicted child vegetable variety (p < 0.05). This highlights the need for addressing antecedents of maternal feeding self-efficacy and the family eating environment as key strategies towards development of healthy eating in children.

SWIRLnet : portable anemometer network for wind speed measurements of land-falling tropical cyclones

Wind speed measurement systems are sparse in the tropical regions of Australia. Tropical cyclone wind speeds impacting communities are often ‘guestimated’ from analyzing damaged structures. A re-locatable anemometer system is required to enable measurements of wind speeds. This paper discusses design criteria of the tripods and tie down system, proposed deployment of the anemometers, instrumentation, and data logging. Preliminary assessment of the anemometer response indicates a reliable system for 1 second response, however, it is noted that the Australian building code and wind loading standard uses a moving average time of approximately 0.2 seconds for its wind speed design criteria.

Wind speed measurements of land-falling tropical cyclones using SWIRLnet, a portable anemometer network

Wind speed measurement systems are sparse in the tropical regions of Australia. Given this, tropical cyclone wind speeds impacting communities are seldom measured and often only ‘guestimated’ by analysing the extent of damage to structures. In an attempt to overcome this dearth of data, a re-locatable network of anemometers to be deployed prior to tropical cyclone landfall is currently being developed. This paper discusses design criteria of the network’s tripods and tie down system, proposed deployment of the anemometers, instrumentation and data logging. Preliminary assessment of the anemometer response indicates a reliable system for measuring the spectral component of wind with frequencies of approximately 1 Hz. This system limitation highlights an important difference between the capabilities of modern instrumentation and that of the Dines anemometer (around 0.2 seconds) that was used to develop much of the design criteria within the Australian building code and wind loading standard.