Dynamics in the governance of collective irrigation systems: Evidence from field experiments in Nicaragua.

In this paper, we investigate the real demand for climate protection when the purely individual perspective of existing revealed preference studies is relaxed. This is achieved in two treatments; first, we determine the information subjects receive about the demand revealed by other subjects in a similar decision making situation, second, collective action is implemented whereby all subjects are required to purchase the group?s median quantity at a given price. Participants in the experiment were offered the opportunity to contribute to climate protection by purchasing European Union Allowances. Allowances purchased were withdrawn from the European Emissions Trading Scheme. In our experiment, information about other subjects? behaviour has no treatment effect on the demand for climate protection. Under collective action however, the probability of purchasing allowances is higher compared to the reference treatment situation, an individual contribution mechanism. Furthermore, we observe a strong correlation between subjects? demand and their expectations about other participants? behaviour. When collective action is not available, subjects? e xpectations are consistent with free rider behaviour.

Avaliação de impacto do Proagro Mais: um estudo de caso

Esta pesquisa avalia o impacto do \"Programa de Garantia da Atividade Agropecuária\" para agricultores familiares, conhecido como Proagro Mais. A relevância do trabalho fundamenta-se no considerável tamanho do Programa dentro do contexto das políticas de gestão de risco agrícola no Brasil. Além disso, é a primeira pesquisa desse tipo na literatura científica do país. A amostra é formada por produtores de milho do Estado do Paraná, tendo como linha base o ano de 2003, uma vez que é o ano anterior ao lançamento do Proagro Mais, e o ano de 2005 como ano de impacto. A base de dados utilizada neste estudo foi fornecida pelo Tribunal de Contas da União (TCU), cujas variáveis relevantes incluem características da cultura e dos agricultores familiares, como área financiada, atividades agrícolas complementares, educação e rendimento esperado. Adicionalmente, a partir de outras fontes públicas, foram adicionadas variáveis meteorológicas e regionais para controlar a localização da fazenda. O objetivo da pesquisa é avaliar o impacto do Proagro Mais sobre o montante de crédito por hectare concedido aos beneficiários do Programa. As metodologias usadas incluem o Propensity Score Matching (PSM), a Diferença das Diferenças (DID) e dois estimadores condicionais do DID com PSM usando dados em painel e repeated cross-section. As estimativas econométricas mostram que o Efeito Médio do Tratamento nos Tratados (EMTT) teve sinal negativo na maioria dos modelos revelando que, após o período de perda de rendimento, o grupo de controle teve um valor médio mais elevado de crédito por hectare do que os beneficiários do Proagro Mais. Os resultados sugerem a existência de mecanismos que poderiam complementar ou substituir o Proagro Mais como instrumento de gestão de risco agrícola, mas também podem sugerir que o Programa avaliado não cubra todos os riscos do setor.

Revisiting the synthetic control estimator

The synthetic control (SC) method has been recently proposed as an alternative to estimate treatment effects in comparative case studies. The SC relies on the assumption that there is a weighted average of the control units that reconstruct the potential outcome of the treated unit in the absence of treatment. If these weights were known, then one could estimate the counterfactual for the treated unit using this weighted average. With these weights, the SC would provide an unbiased estimator for the treatment effect even if selection into treatment is correlated with the unobserved heterogeneity. In this paper, we revisit the SC method in a linear factor model where the SC weights are considered nuisance parameters that are estimated to construct the SC estimator. We show that, when the number of control units is fixed, the estimated SC weights will generally not converge to the weights that reconstruct the factor loadings of the treated unit, even when the number of pre-intervention periods goes to infinity. As a consequence, the SC estimator will be asymptotically biased if treatment assignment is correlated with the unobserved heterogeneity. The asymptotic bias only vanishes when the variance of the idiosyncratic error goes to zero. We suggest a slight modification in the SC method that guarantees that the SC estimator is asymptotically unbiased and has a lower asymptotic variance than the difference-in-differences (DID) estimator when the DID identification assumption is satisfied. If the DID assumption is not satisfied, then both estimators would be asymptotically biased, and it would not be possible to rank them in terms of their asymptotic bias.

Adaptive designs in the time to event setting: The potential for benefit and risk

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Neighborhood Change after Investment in Light-rail Transit (LRT)

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

OMERACT-OARSI Initiative: Osteoarthritis Research Society International set of responder criteria for osteoarthritis clinical trials revisited.

Background: The OARSI Standing Committee for Clinical Trials Response Criteria Initiative had developed two sets of responder criteria to present the results of changes after treatment in three symptomatic domains (pain, function, and patient's global assessment) as a single variable for clinical trials (1). For each domain, a response was defined by both a relative and an absolute change, with different cut-offs with regard to the drug, the route of administration and the OA localization. Objective: To propose a simplified set of responder criteria with a similar cut-off, whatever the drug, the route or the OA localization. Methods: Data driven approach: (1) Two databases were considered The 'elaboration' database with which the formal OARSI sets of responder criteria were elaborated and The 'revisit' database. (2) Six different scenarios were evaluated: The two formal OARSI sets of criteria Four proposed scenarios of simplified sets of criteria Data from clinical randomized blinded placebo controlled trials were used to evaluate the performances of the two formal scenarios with two different databases ('elaboration' versus 'revisit') and those of the four proposed simplified scenarios within the 'revisit' database. The placebo effect, active effect, treatment effect, and the required sample arm size to obtain the placebo effect and the active treatment effect observed were the performances evaluated for each of the six scenarios. Experts' opinion approach: Results were discussed among the participants of the OMERACT VI meeting, who voted to select the definite OMERACT-OARSI set of criteria (one of the six evaluated scenarios). Results: Data driven approach: Fourteen trials totaling 1886 CA patients and fifteen studies involving 8164 CA patients were evaluated in the 'elaboration' and the 'revisit' databases respectively. The variability of the performances observed in the 'revisit' database when using the different simplified scenarios was similar to that observed between the two databases ('elaboration' versus 'revisit') when using the formal scenarios. The treatment effect and the required sample arm size were similar for each set of criteria. Experts' opinion approach: According to the experts, these two previous performances were the most important of an optimal set of responder criteria. They chose the set of criteria considering both pain and function as evaluation domain and requiring an absolute change and a relative change from baseline to define a response, with similar cut-offs whatever the drug, the route of administration or the CA localization. Conclusion: This data driven and experts' opinion approach is the basis for proposing an optimal simplified set of responder criteria for CA clinical trials. Other studies, using other sets of CA patients, are required in order to further validate this proposed OMERACT - OARSI set of criteria. (C) 2004 OsteoArthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A randomized controlled trial of intensive neurophysiology education in chronic low back pain

Objectives: Cognitive-behavioral pain management programs typically achieve improvements in pain cognitions, disability, and physical performance. However, it is not known whether the neurophysiology education component of such programs contributes to these outcomes. In chronic low back pain patients, we investigated the effect of neurophysiology education on cognitions, disability, and physical performance. Methods: This study was a blinded randomized controlled trial. Individual education sessions on neurophysiology of pain (experimental group) and back anatomy and physiology (control group) were conducted by trained physical therapist educators. Cognitions were evaluated using the Survey of Pain Attitudes (revised) (SOPA(R)), and the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). Behavioral measures included the Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ), and 3 physical performance tasks; (1) straight leg raise (SLR), (2) forward bending range, and (3) an abdominal drawing-in task, which provides a measure of voluntary activation of the deep abdominal muscles. Methodological checks evaluated non-specific effects of intervention. Results: There was a significant treatment effect on the SOPA(R), PCS, SLR, and forward bending. There was a statistically significant effect on RMDQ; however, the size of this effect was small and probably not clinically meaningful. Discussion: Education about pain neurophysiology changes pain cognitions and physical performance but is insufficient by itself to obtain a change in perceived disability. The results suggest that pain neurophysiology education, but not back school type education, should be included in a wider pain management approach.

Cost-effectiveness of cholesterol-lowering therapy with pravastatin in patients with previous acute coronary syndromes aged 65 to 74 years compared with younger patients: Results from the LIPID study

Background We compared cost-effectiveness of pravastatin in a placebo-controlled trial in 5500 younger (31-64 years) and 3514 older patients (65-74 years) with previous acute coronary syndromes. Methods Hospitalizations and long-term medication within the 6 years of the trial were estimated in all patients. Drug dosage, nursing home, and ambulatory care costs were estimated from substudies. Incremental costs per life saved of pravastatin relative to placebo were estimated from treatment effects and resource use. Results Over 6 years, pravastatin reduced all-cause mortality by 4.3% in the older patients and by 2.3% in the younger patients. Older patients assigned pravastatin had marginally lower cost of pravastatin and other medication over 6 years (A$4442 vs A$4637), but greater cost offsets (A$2061 vs. A$897) from lower rates of hospitalizations. The incremental cost per life saved with pravastatin was A$55500 in the old and A$167200 in the young. Assuming no treatment effect beyond the study period, the life expectancy to age 82 years of additional survivors was 9.1 years in the older and. 17.3 years in the younger. Estimated additional life-years saved from pravastatin therapy were 0.39 years for older and 0.40 years for younger patients. Incremental costs per life-year saved were A$7581 in the older and A$1.4944 in the younger, if discounted at 5% per annum. Conclusions Pravastatin therapy was more cost-effective among older than younger patients, because of their higher baseline risk and greater cost offsets, despite their shorter life expectancy.

An n-of-1 trial service in clinical practice: Testing the effectiveness of stimulants for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder

OBJECTIVE. We sought to describe the clinical use of n-of-1 trials for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in publicly and privately funded family and specialized pediatric practice in Australia. METHODS. We used a within-patient randomized, double-blind, crossover comparison of stimulant (dexamphetamine or methylphenidate) versus placebo or alternative stimulant using 3 pairs of treatment periods. Trials were conducted from a central location using mail and telephone communication, with local supervision by the patients' clinicians. PATIENTS. Our study population included children with clinically diagnosed attention-deficit/ hyperactivity disorder who were aged 5 to 16 years and previously stabilized on an optimal dose of stimulant. They were selected because treatment effectiveness was uncertain. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES. Our measures included number of patients recruited, number of doctors who used the service, geographic spread, completion rates, response rate, and post-n-of-1 trial decisions. RESULTS. Forty-five doctors across Australia requested 108 n-of-1 trials, of which 86 were completed. In 69 drug-versus-placebo comparisons, 29 children responded better to stimulant than placebo. Immediately posttrial, 19 of 25 drug-versus-placebo responders stayed on the same stimulant, and 13 of 24 nonresponders ceased or switched stimulants. In 40 of 63 for which data were available, posttrial management was consistent with the trial results. For all types of n-of-1 trials, management changed for 28 of 64 children for whom information was available. DISCUSSION. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder n-of-1 trials can be implemented successfully by mail and telephone communication. This type of trial can be valuable in clarifying treatment effect when it is uncertain, and in this series, they had a noticeable impact on short-term management.

Double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized study of eicosapentaenoic acid diester in patients with cancer cachexia

Purpose: Eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) has been proposed to have specific anticachectic effects. This trial compared EPA diethyl ester with placebo in cachectic cancer patients for effects on weight and lean body mass. Patients and Methods: Five hundred eighteen weight-losing patients with advanced gastrointestinal or lung cancer were studied in a multicenter, double-blind, placebo controlled trial. Patients were randomly assigned to receive a novel preparation of pure EPA at a dose of 2 g or 4 g daily or placebo (2g EPA, n = 175; 4 g EPA, n = 172; placebo, n = 171). Patients were assessed at 4 weeks and 8 weeks. Results: The groups were well balanced at baseline. Mean weight loss at baseline was 18% (n = 518). Over the 8-week treatment period, both intention-to-treat analysis and per protocol analysis revealed no statistically significant improvements in survival, weight, or other nutritional variables. There was, however, a trend in favor of EPA with analysis of the primary end point, weight, at 8 weeks showing a borderline, nonsignificant treatment effect (P = .066). Relative to placebo, mean weight increased by 1.2 kg with 2 g EPA (95% CI, 0 kg to 2.3 kg) and by 0.3 kg with 4g EPA (-0.9 kg to 1.5 kg). Conclusion: The results indicate no statistically significant benefit from single agent EPA in the treatment of cancer cachexia. Future studies should concentrate on other agents or combination regimens. © 2006 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Content-based VLE designs improve learning efficiency in constructivist statistics education

Background: We introduced a series of computer-supported workshops in our undergraduate statistics courses, in the hope that it would help students to gain a deeper understanding of statistical concepts. This raised questions about the appropriate design of the Virtual Learning Environment (VLE) in which such an approach had to be implemented. Therefore, we investigated two competing software design models for VLEs. In the first system, all learning features were a function of the classical VLE. The second system was designed from the perspective that learning features should be a function of the course's core content (statistical analyses), which required us to develop a specific-purpose Statistical Learning Environment (SLE) based on Reproducible Computing and newly developed Peer Review (PR) technology. Objectives: The main research question is whether the second VLE design improved learning efficiency as compared to the standard type of VLE design that is commonly used in education. As a secondary objective we provide empirical evidence about the usefulness of PR as a constructivist learning activity which supports non-rote learning. Finally, this paper illustrates that it is possible to introduce a constructivist learning approach in large student populations, based on adequately designed educational technology, without subsuming educational content to technological convenience. Methods: Both VLE systems were tested within a two-year quasi-experiment based on a Reliable Nonequivalent Group Design. This approach allowed us to draw valid conclusions about the treatment effect of the changed VLE design, even though the systems were implemented in successive years. The methodological aspects about the experiment's internal validity are explained extensively. Results: The effect of the design change is shown to have substantially increased the efficiency of constructivist, computer-assisted learning activities for all cohorts of the student population under investigation. The findings demonstrate that a content-based design outperforms the traditional VLE-based design. © 2011 Wessa et al.

Statnote 31:analysis of covariance

Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) is a useful method of ‘error control’, i.e., it can reduce the size of the error variance in an experimental or observational study. An initial measure obtained before the experiment, which is closely related to the final measurement, is used to adjust the final measurements, thus reducing the error variance. When this method is used to reduce the error term, the X variable must not itself be affected by the experimental treatments, because part of the treatment effect would then also be removed. Hence, the method can only be safely used when X is measured before an experiment. A further limitation of the analysis is that only the linear effect of Y on X is being removed and it is possible that Y could be a curvilinear function of X. A question often raised is whether ANCOVA should be used routinely in experiments rather than a randomized blocks or split-plot design, which may also reduce the error variance. The answer to this question depends on the relative precision of the difference methods with reference to each scenario. Considerable judgment is often required to select the best experimental design and statistical help should be sought at an early stage of an investigation.

Effectiveness of nonpharmacologic treatments for acute seasonal allergic conjunctivitis

Objective - To investigate whether artificial tears and cold compress alone or in combination provide a treatment benefit and whether they were as effective as or could enhance topical antiallergic medication. Design - Randomized, masked clinical trial. Participants - Eighteen subjects (mean age, 29.5±11.0 years) allergic to grass pollen. Intervention - Controlled exposure to grass pollen using an environmental chamber to stimulate an ocular allergic reaction followed by application of artificial tears (ATs), 5 minutes of cold compress (CC), ATs combined with CC, or no treatment applied at each separate visit in random order. A subset of 11 subjects also had epinastine hydrochloride (EH) applied alone and combined with CC in random order or instillation of a volume-matched saline control. Main Outcome Measures - Bulbar conjunctival hyperemia, ocular surface temperature, and ocular symptoms repeated before and every 10 minutes after treatment for 1 hour. Results - Bulbar conjunctival hyperemia and ocular symptoms decreased and temperature recovered to baseline faster with nonpharmaceutical treatments compared with no treatment (P?treatments (P?treatment effect of EH was enhanced by combining it with a CC (P?effect (P?>?0.05). At all measurement intervals, symptoms were reduced for both EH and EH combined with CC than CC or ATs alone or in combination (P?treatment showed a therapeutic effect on the signs and symptoms of allergic conjunctivitis. A CC enhanced the use of EH alone and was the only treatment to reduce symptoms to baseline within 1 hour of antigenic challenge. Signs of allergic conjunctivitis generally were reduced most by a combination of a CC in combination with ATs or EH.

Effectiveness of nonpharmacologic treatments for acute seasonal allergic conjunctivitis

Objective To investigate whether artificial tears and cold compress alone or in combination provide a treatment benefit and whether they were as effective as or could enhance topical antiallergic medication. Design Randomized, masked clinical trial. Participants Eighteen subjects (mean age, 29.5±11.0 years) allergic to grass pollen. Intervention Controlled exposure to grass pollen using an environmental chamber to stimulate an ocular allergic reaction followed by application of artificial tears (ATs), 5 minutes of cold compress (CC), ATs combined with CC, or no treatment applied at each separate visit in random order. A subset of 11 subjects also had epinastine hydrochloride (EH) applied alone and combined with CC in random order or instillation of a volume-matched saline control. Main Outcome Measures Bulbar conjunctival hyperemia, ocular surface temperature, and ocular symptoms repeated before and every 10 minutes after treatment for 1 hour. Results Bulbar conjunctival hyperemia and ocular symptoms decreased and temperature recovered to baseline faster with nonpharmaceutical treatments compared with no treatment (P <0.05). Artificial tears combined with CC reduced hyperemia more than other treatments (P <0.05). The treatment effect of EH was enhanced by combining it with a CC (P <0.001). Cold compress combined with ATs or EH lowered the antigen-raised ocular surface temperature to less than the pre-exposure baseline. Artificial tear instillation alone or CC combined with ATs or EH significantly reduced the temperature (P <0.05). Cold compress combined with ATs or EH had a similar cooling effect (P > 0.05). At all measurement intervals, symptoms were reduced for both EH and EH combined with CC than CC or ATs alone or in combination (P <0.014). Conclusions After controlled exposure to grass pollen, CC and AT treatment showed a therapeutic effect on the signs and symptoms of allergic conjunctivitis. A CC enhanced the use of EH alone and was the only treatment to reduce symptoms to baseline within 1 hour of antigenic challenge. Signs of allergic conjunctivitis generally were reduced most by a combination of a CC in combination with ATs or EH. © 2014 by the American Academy of Ophthalmology.

Auditory training and adult rehabilitation:a critical review of the evidence

Auditory Training (AT) describes a regimen of varied listening exercises designed to improve an individual’s ability to perceive speech. The theory of AT is based on brain plasticity (the capacity of neurones in the central auditory system to alter their structure and function) in response to auditory stimulation. The practice of repeatedly listening to the speech sounds included in AT exercises is believed to drive the development of more efficient neuronal pathways, thereby improving auditory processing and speech discrimination. This critical review aims to assess whether auditory training can improve speech discrimination in adults with mild-moderate SNHL. The majority of patients attending Audiology services are adults with presbyacusis and it is therefore important to evaluate evidence of any treatment effect of AT in aural rehabilitation. Ideally this review would seek to appraise evidence of neurophysiological effects of AT so as to verify whether it does induce change in the CAS. However, due to the absence of such studies on this particular patient group, the outcome measure of speech discrimination, as a behavioural indicator of treatment effect is used instead. A review of available research was used to inform an argument for or against using AT in rehabilitative clinical practice. Six studies were identified and although the preliminary evidence indicates an improvement gained from a range of AT paradigms, the treatment effect size was modest and there remains a lack of large-sample RCTs. Future investigation into the efficacy of AT needs to employ neurophysiological studies using auditory evoked potentials in hearing-impaired adults in order to explore effects of AT on the CAS.