Evaluating and validating abundance monitoring methods in the absence of populations of known size: review and application to a passive tracking index

Rarely is it possible to obtain absolute numbers in free-ranging populations and although various direct and indirect methods are used to estimate abundance, few are validated against populations of known size. In this paper, we apply grounding, calibration and verification methods, used to validate mathematical models, to methods of estimating relative abundance. To illustrate how this might be done, we consider and evaluate the widely applied passive tracking index (PTI) methodology. Using published data, we examine the rationality of PTI methodology, how conceptually animal activity and abundance are related and how alternative methods are subject to similar biases or produce similar abundance estimates and trends. We then attune the method against populations representing a range of densities likely to be encountered in the field. Finally, we compare PTI trends against a prediction that adjacent populations of the same species will have similar abundance values and trends in activity. We show that while PTI abundance estimates are subject to environmental and behavioural stochasticity peculiar to each species, the PTI method and associated variance estimate showed high probability of detection, high precision of abundance values and, generally, low variability between surveys, and suggest that the PTI method applied using this procedure and for these species provides a sensitive and credible index of abundance. This same or similar validation approach can and should be applied to alternative relative abundance methods in order to demonstrate their credibility and justify their use.

Semantic Classes in Topic Detection and Tracking

Topic detection and tracking (TDT) is an area of information retrieval research the focus of which revolves around news events. The problems TDT deals with relate to segmenting news text into cohesive stories, detecting something new, previously unreported, tracking the development of a previously reported event, and grouping together news that discuss the same event. The performance of the traditional information retrieval techniques based on full-text similarity has remained inadequate for online production systems. It has been difficult to make the distinction between same and similar events. In this work, we explore ways of representing and comparing news documents in order to detect new events and track their development. First, however, we put forward a conceptual analysis of the notions of topic and event. The purpose is to clarify the terminology and align it with the process of news-making and the tradition of story-telling. Second, we present a framework for document similarity that is based on semantic classes, i.e., groups of words with similar meaning. We adopt people, organizations, and locations as semantic classes in addition to general terms. As each semantic class can be assigned its own similarity measure, document similarity can make use of ontologies, e.g., geographical taxonomies. The documents are compared class-wise, and the outcome is a weighted combination of class-wise similarities. Third, we incorporate temporal information into document similarity. We formalize the natural language temporal expressions occurring in the text, and use them to anchor the rest of the terms onto the time-line. Upon comparing documents for event-based similarity, we look not only at matching terms, but also how near their anchors are on the time-line. Fourth, we experiment with an adaptive variant of the semantic class similarity system. The news reflect changes in the real world, and in order to keep up, the system has to change its behavior based on the contents of the news stream. We put forward two strategies for rebuilding the topic representations and report experiment results. We run experiments with three annotated TDT corpora. The use of semantic classes increased the effectiveness of topic tracking by 10-30\% depending on the experimental setup. The gain in spotting new events remained lower, around 3-4\%. The anchoring the text to a time-line based on the temporal expressions gave a further 10\% increase the effectiveness of topic tracking. The gains in detecting new events, again, remained smaller. The adaptive systems did not improve the tracking results.

Measuring and tracking quality factors in Free and Open Source Software projects

Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) has gained increased interest in the computer software industry, but assessing its quality remains a challenge. FOSS development is frequently carried out by globally distributed development teams, and all stages of development are publicly visible. Several product and process-level quality factors can be measured using the public data. This thesis presents a theoretical background for software quality and metrics and their application in a FOSS environment. Information available from FOSS projects in three information spaces are presented, and a quality model suitable for use in a FOSS context is constructed. The model includes both process and product quality metrics, and takes into account the tools and working methods commonly used in FOSS projects. A subset of the constructed quality model is applied to three FOSS projects, highlighting both theoretical and practical concerns in implementing automatic metric collection and analysis. The experiment shows that useful quality information can be extracted from the vast amount of data available. In particular, projects vary in their growth rate, complexity, modularity and team structure.

In bed with technology: Challenges and opportunities for sleep tracking

In recent years a variety of mobile apps, wearable technologies and embedded systems have emerged that allow individuals to track the amount and the quality of their sleep in their own beds. Despite the widespread adoption of these technologies, little is known about the challenges that current users face in tracking and analysing their sleep. Hence we conducted a qualitative study to examine the practices of current users of sleep tracking technologies and to identify challenges in current practice. Based on data collected from 5 online forums for users of sleep-tracking technologies, we identified 22 different challenges under the following 4 themes: tracking continuity, trust, data manipulation, and data interpretation. Based on these results, we propose 6 design opportunities to assist researchers and practitioners in designing sleep-tracking technologies.

On the integration of self-tracking data amongst quantified self members

Self-tracking, the process of recording one's own behaviours, thoughts and feelings, is a popular approach to enhance one's self-knowledge. While dedicated self-tracking apps and devices support data collection, previous research highlights that the integration of data constitutes a barrier for users. In this study we investigated how members of the Quantified Self movement---early adopters of self-tracking tools---overcome these barriers. We conducted a qualitative analysis of 51 videos of Quantified Self presentations to explore intentions for collecting data, methods for integrating and representing data, and how intentions and methods shaped reflection. The findings highlight two different intentions---striving for self-improvement and curiosity in personal data---which shaped how these users integrated data, i.e. the effort required. Furthermore, we identified three methods for representing data---binary, structured and abstract---which influenced reflection. Binary representations supported reflection-in-action, whereas structured and abstract representations supported iterative processes of data collection, integration and reflection. For people tracking out of curiosity, this iterative engagement with personal data often became an end in itself, rather than a means to achieve a goal. We discuss how these findings contribute to our current understanding of self-tracking amongst Quantified Self members and beyond, and we conclude with directions for future work to support self-trackers with their aspirations.

Do Measurement Errors in GDP Announcements Cause Output Fluctuations?

This thesis studies empirically whether measurement errors in aggregate production statistics affect sentiment and future output. Initial announcements of aggregate production are subject to measurement error, because many of the data required to compile the statistics are produced with a lag. This measurement error can be gauged as the difference between the latest revised statistic and its initial announcement. Assuming aggregate production statistics help forecast future aggregate production, these measurement errors are expected to affect macroeconomic forecasts. Assuming agents’ macroeconomic forecasts affect their production choices, these measurement errors should affect future output through sentiment. This thesis is primarily empirical, so the theoretical basis, strategic complementarity, is discussed quite briefly. However, it is a model in which higher aggregate production increases each agent’s incentive to produce. In this circumstance a statistical announcement which suggests aggregate production is high would increase each agent’s incentive to produce, thus resulting in higher aggregate production. In this way the existence of strategic complementarity provides the theoretical basis for output fluctuations caused by measurement mistakes in aggregate production statistics. Previous empirical studies suggest that measurement errors in gross national product affect future aggregate production in the United States. Additionally it has been demonstrated that measurement errors in the Index of Leading Indicators affect forecasts by professional economists as well as future industrial production in the United States. This thesis aims to verify the applicability of these findings to other countries, as well as study the link between measurement errors in gross domestic product and sentiment. This thesis explores the relationship between measurement errors in gross domestic production and sentiment and future output. Professional forecasts and consumer sentiment in the United States and Finland, as well as producer sentiment in Finland, are used as the measures of sentiment. Using statistical techniques it is found that measurement errors in gross domestic product affect forecasts and producer sentiment. The effect on consumer sentiment is ambiguous. The relationship between measurement errors and future output is explored using data from Finland, United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand and Sweden. It is found that measurement errors have affected aggregate production or investment in Finland, United States, United Kingdom and Sweden. Specifically, it was found that overly optimistic statistics announcements are associated with higher output and vice versa.

Things you don't want to know about yourself: Ambivalence about tracking and sharing personal information for behaviour change

Technologies that facilitate the collection and sharing of personal information can feed people's desire for enhanced self-knowledge and help them to change their behaviour, yet for various reasons people can also be reluctant to use such technologies. This paper explores this tension through an interview study in the context of smoking cessation. Our findings show that smokers and recent ex-smokers were ambivalent about their behaviour change as well as about collecting personal information through technology and sharing it with other users. We close with a summary of three challenges emerging from such ambivalence and directions to address them.

Besides tracking: Simulation of RFID marketing and beyond

This paper asks a new question: how we can use RFID technology in marketing products in supermarkets and how we can measure its performance or ROI (Return-on-Investment). We try to answer the question by proposing a simulation model whereby customers become aware of other customers' real-time shopping behavior and may hence be influenced by their purchases and the levels of purchases. The proposed model is orthogonal to sales model and can have the similar effects: increase in the overall shopping volume. Managers often struggle with the prediction of ROI on purchasing such a technology, this simulation sets to provide them the answers of questions like the percentage of increase in sales given real-time purchase information to other customers. The simulation is also flexible to incorporate any given model of customers' behavior tailored to particular supermarket, settings, events or promotions. The results, although preliminary, are promising to use RFID technology for marketing products in supermarkets and provide several dimensions to look for influencing customers via feedback, real-time marketing, target advertisement and on-demand promotions. Several other parameters have been discussed including the herd behavior, fake customers, privacy, and optimality of sales-price margin and the ROI of investing in RFID technology for marketing purposes. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Medication errors in residential aged care facilities: A distributed cognition analysis of the information exchange process

Background Medication safety is a pressing concern for residential aged care facilities (RACFs). Retrospective studies in RACF settings identify inadequate communication between RACFs, doctors, hospitals and community pharmacies as the major cause of medication errors. Existing literature offers limited insight about the gaps in the existing information exchange process that may lead to medication errors. The aim of this research was to explicate the cognitive distribution that underlies RACF medication ordering and delivery to identify gaps in medication-related information exchange which lead to medication errors in RACFs. Methods The study was undertaken in three RACFs in Sydney, Australia. Data were generated through ethnographic field work over a period of five months (May–September 2011). Triangulated analysis of data primarily focused on examining the transformation and exchange of information between different media across the process. Results The findings of this study highlight the extensive scope and intense nature of information exchange in RACF medication ordering and delivery. Rather than attributing error to individual care providers, the explication of distributed cognition processes enabled the identification of gaps in three information exchange dimensions which potentially contribute to the occurrence of medication errors namely: (1) design of medication charts which complicates order processing and record keeping (2) lack of coordination mechanisms between participants which results in misalignment of local practices (3) reliance on restricted communication bandwidth channels mainly telephone and fax which complicates the information processing requirements. The study demonstrates how the identification of these gaps enhances understanding of medication errors in RACFs. Conclusions Application of the theoretical lens of distributed cognition can assist in enhancing our understanding of medication errors in RACFs through identification of gaps in information exchange. Understanding the dynamics of the cognitive process can inform the design of interventions to manage errors and improve residents’ safety.

Tracking students through senior schooling: A successful case study

With society now recognizing that senior schooling is about flexibility in credentialing rather than a one-size-fits-all academic education, it has become necessary to track students through numerous pathways. This case study describes how Nambour State High School put into place a senior schooling tracking program which brought about cultural change throughout the school. Using the Tracking and Academic Management Index as a cohort tracking tool, the school has been able to monitor its senior schooling academic and non-academic performance over the past four years. By focusing on the four measures which make up the Index, Nambour State High School was able to demonstrate improved outcomes for all students in their senior school cohort.

Tracking brand positioning for an emerging destination: 2003 to 2015

Few published studies have monitored destination brand image over time. This temporal aspect is an important gap in the literature, given consensus around the role perceptions play in consumers’ decision making, and the ensuing emphasis on imagery in destination branding collateral. Whereas most destination image studies have been a snapshot of perceptions at one point in time, this paper presents findings from a survey implemented four times between 2003 and 2015. Brand image is the core construct in modelling destination branding performance, which has emerged as a relatively new field of research in the past decade. Using the consumer-based brand equity (CBBE) hierarchy, the project has benchmarked and monitored destination brand salience, image and resonance for an emerging regional destination, relative to key competitors, in the domestic Australian market; and the survey instrument has been demonstrated to be reliable in the context of short break holidays by car. What is particularly interesting to date is there has been relatively little change in the market positions of the five destinations, in spite of over a decade of marketing communications by the regional tourism organisations and their stakeholders, and more recently the mass of user-generated travel content on social media. The project didn’t analyse the actual marketing communications for each of the DMOs. Therefore an important implication is that irrespective of the level of marketing undertaken the DMOs seem to have had little control over the perceptions held in their largest market during this time period. Therefore it must be recognised any improvement in perceptions will likely take a long period of time, and so branding needs to be underpinned by a philosophy of a long term financial investment as well as commitment to a consistency of message over time; which given the politics of DMO decision making represents a considerable challenge.

A cloud-based intelligent computing system for contextual exploration on personal sleep-tracking data using association rule mining

With the development of wearable and mobile computing technology, more and more people start using sleep-tracking tools to collect personal sleep data on a daily basis aiming at understanding and improving their sleep. While sleep quality is influenced by many factors in a person’s lifestyle context, such as exercise, diet and steps walked, existing tools simply visualize sleep data per se on a dashboard rather than analyse those data in combination with contextual factors. Hence many people find it difficult to make sense of their sleep data. In this paper, we present a cloud-based intelligent computing system named SleepExplorer that incorporates sleep domain knowledge and association rule mining for automated analysis on personal sleep data in light of contextual factors. Experiments show that the same contextual factors can play a distinct role in sleep of different people, and SleepExplorer could help users discover factors that are most relevant to their personal sleep.

A feedback-based algorithm forMotion analysis with application to object tracking

We present a motion detection algorithm which detects direction of motion at sufficient number of points and thus segregates the edge image into clusters of coherently moving points. Unlike most algorithms for motion analysis, we do not estimate magnitude of velocity vectors or obtain dense motion maps. The motivation is that motion direction information at a number of points seems to be sufficient to evoke perception of motion and hence should be useful in many image processing tasks requiring motion analysis. The algorithm essentially updates the motion at previous time using the current image frame as input in a dynamic fashion. One of the novel features of the algorithm is the use of some feedback mechanism for evidence segregation. This kind of motion analysis can identify regions in the image that are moving together coherently, and such information could be sufficient for many applications that utilize motion such as segmentation, compression, and tracking. We present an algorithm for tracking objects using our motion information to demonstrate the potential of this motion detection algorithm.

Kernel-based spatial-color modeling for fast moving object tracking

Visual tracking has been a challenging problem in computer vision over the decades. The applications of Visual Tracking are far-reaching, ranging from surveillance and monitoring to smart rooms. Mean-shift (MS) tracker, which gained more attention recently, is known for tracking objects in a cluttered environment and its low computational complexity. The major problem encountered in histogram-based MS is its inability to track rapidly moving objects. In order to track fast moving objects, we propose a new robust mean-shift tracker that uses both spatial similarity measure and color histogram-based similarity measure. The inability of MS tracker to handle large displacements is circumvented by the spatial similarity-based tracking module, which lacks robustness to object's appearance change. The performance of the proposed tracker is better than the individual trackers for tracking fast-moving objects with better accuracy.