Coastal flood vulnerability assessment with geomatic methods: Test sites of western Thailand, Sydney (Australia) and aeolian islands (south tyrrhenian sea, Italy)

The work undertaken in this PhD thesis is aimed at the development and testing of an innovative methodology for the assessment of the vulnerability of coastal areas to marine catastrophic inundation (tsunami). Different approaches are used at different spatial scales and are applied to three different study areas: 1. The entire western coast of Thailand 2. Two selected coastal suburbs of Sydney – Australia 3. The Aeolian Islands, in the South Tyrrhenian Sea – Italy I have discussed each of these cases study in at least one scientific paper: one paper about the Thailand case study (Dall’Osso et al., in review-b), three papers about the Sydney applications (Dall’Osso et al., 2009a; Dall’Osso et al., 2009b; Dall’Osso and Dominey-Howes, in review) and one last paper about the work at the Aeolian Islands (Dall’Osso et al., in review-a). These publications represent the core of the present PhD thesis. The main topics dealt with are outlined and discussed in a general introduction while the overall conclusions are outlined in the last section.

Early Warning For Large Earthquakes: Observations, Models and Real-Time Data Analysis

This thesis is a collection of works focused on the topic of Earthquake Early Warning, with a special attention to large magnitude events. The topic is addressed from different points of view and the structure of the thesis reflects the variety of the aspects which have been analyzed. The first part is dedicated to the giant, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The main features of the rupture process are first discussed. The earthquake is then used as a case study to test the feasibility Early Warning methodologies for very large events. Limitations of the standard approaches for large events arise in this chapter. The difficulties are related to the real-time magnitude estimate from the first few seconds of recorded signal. An evolutionary strategy for the real-time magnitude estimate is proposed and applied to the single Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In the second part of the thesis a larger number of earthquakes is analyzed, including small, moderate and large events. Starting from the measurement of two Early Warning parameters, the behavior of small and large earthquakes in the initial portion of recorded signals is investigated. The aim is to understand whether small and large earthquakes can be distinguished from the initial stage of their rupture process. A physical model and a plausible interpretation to justify the observations are proposed. The third part of the thesis is focused on practical, real-time approaches for the rapid identification of the potentially damaged zone during a seismic event. Two different approaches for the rapid prediction of the damage area are proposed and tested. The first one is a threshold-based method which uses traditional seismic data. Then an innovative approach using continuous, GPS data is explored. Both strategies improve the prediction of large scale effects of strong earthquakes.

Applicazione e confronto di modelli per lo studio della vulnerabilita da maremoto nel golfo di siracusa

Il lavoro svolto in questa tesi s’inserisce e sviluppa soprattutto nel campo dell’analisi della vulnerabilità relativa agli tsunami ed è centrato sull’analisi della vulnerabilità di strutture ed edifici. Per la precisione si è focalizzata l’attenzione su un’area geografica specifica, cioè si è considerata l’ipotesi che un maremoto colpisca le coste orientali della Sicilia ed in particolare della città di Siracusa. Questo lavoro di tesi prenderà in considerazione due modelli distinti per la stima della vulnerabilità: il modello SCHEMA (SCenarios for Hazard-induced Emergencies MAnagement) che prende il nome dal progetto europeo in cui è stato sviluppato e il modello PTVA (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment) introdotto da Papathoma et al. (2003) e successivamente modificato da Dominey-Howes et al. (2007) e da Dall’Osso et al. (2009). Tali modelli sono esempi dei due possibili approcci (quantitativo e qualitativo). Nei seguenti capitoli si sono trattate le curve di fragilità e di danno, in particolare seguendo la metodologia di Koshimura et al. (2009) ed il lavoro di Valencia et al. (2011). A seguire sono stati descritti i due metodi utilizzati per lo studio della vulnerabilità (SCHEMA, PTVA) ed il lavoro che è stato condotto nell’area di Siracusa. Il lavoro di tesi si è concluso mostrando i risultati della classificazione di vulnerabilità evidenziando e discutendo differenze e similarità delle mappe risultanti dai due metodi applicati.

Credit-Default-Swaps and the 2008 Financial Crisis: An Inquiry into the Underlying Legal Origins and the European Union’s Regulatory Reforms

After the 2008 financial crisis, the financial innovation product Credit-Default-Swap (CDS) was widely blamed as the main cause of this crisis. CDS is one type of over-the-counter (OTC) traded derivatives. Before the crisis, the trading of CDS was very popular among the financial institutions. But meanwhile, excessive speculative CDSs transactions in a legal environment of scant regulation accumulated huge risks in the financial system. This dissertation is divided into three parts. In Part I, we discussed the primers of the CDSs and its market development, then we analyzed in detail the roles CDSs had played in this crisis based on economic studies. It is advanced that CDSs not just promoted the eruption of the crisis in 2007 but also exacerbated it in 2008. In part II, we asked ourselves what are the legal origins of this crisis in relation with CDSs, as we believe that financial instruments could only function, positive or negative, under certain legal institutional environment. After an in-depth inquiry, we observed that at least three traditional legal doctrines were eroded or circumvented by OTC derivatives. It is argued that the malfunction of these doctrines, on the one hand, facilitated the proliferation of speculative CDSs transactions; on the other hand, eroded the original risk-control legal mechanism. Therefore, the 2008 crisis could escalate rapidly into a global financial tsunami, which was out of control of the regulators. In Part III, we focused on the European Union’s regulatory reform towards the OTC derivatives market. In specific, EU introduced mandatory central counterparty clearing obligation for qualified OTC derivatives, and requires that all OTC derivatives shall be reported to a trade repository. It is observable that EU’s approach in re-regulating the derivatives market is different with the traditional administrative regulation, but aiming at constructing a new market infrastructure for OTC derivatives.

Ancient Greek harbours used as geo-archives for palaeotsunami research : case studies from Krane (Cefalonia), Lechaion (Gulf of Corinth) and Kyllini (Peloponnese)

Since historical times, coastal areas throughout the eastern Mediterranean are exposed to tsunami hazard. For many decades the knowledge about palaeotsunamis was solely based on historical accounts. However, results from timeline analyses reveal different characteristics affecting the quality of the dataset (i.e. distribution of data, temporal thinning backward of events, local periodization phenomena) that emphasize the fragmentary character of the historical data. As an increasing number of geo-scientific studies give convincing examples of well dated tsunami signatures not reported in catalogues, the non-existing record is a major problem to palaeotsunami research. While the compilation of historical data allows a first approach in the identification of areas vulnerable to tsunamis, it must not be regarded as reliable for hazard assessment. Considering the increasing economic significance of coastal regions (e.g. for mass tourism) and the constantly growing coastal population, our knowledge on the local, regional and supraregional tsunami hazard along Mediterranean coasts has to be improved. For setting up a reliable tsunami risk assessment and developing risk mitigation strategies, it is of major importance (i) to identify areas under risk and (ii) to estimate the intensity and frequency of potential events. This approach is most promising when based on the analysis of palaeotsunami research seeking to detect areas of high palaeotsunami hazard, to calculate recurrence intervals and to document palaeotsunami destructiveness in terms of wave run-up, inundation and long-term coastal change. Within the past few years, geo-scientific studies on palaeotsunami events provided convincing evidence that throughout the Mediterranean ancient harbours were subject to strong tsunami-related disturbance or destruction. Constructed to protect ships from storm and wave activity, harbours provide especially sheltered and quiescent environments and thus turned out to be valuable geo-archives for tsunamigenic high-energy impacts on coastal areas. Directly exposed to the Hellenic Trench and extensive local fault systems, coastal areas in the Ionian Sea and the Gulf of Corinth hold a considerably high risk for tsunami events, respectively.Geo-scientific and geoarcheaological studies carried out in the environs of the ancient harbours of Krane (Cefalonia Island), Lechaion (Corinth, Gulf of Corinth) and Kyllini (western Peloponnese) comprised on-shore and near-shore vibracoring and subsequent sedimentological, geochemical and microfossil analyses of the recovered sediments. Geophysical methods like electrical resistivity tomography and ground penetrating radar were applied in order to detect subsurface structures and to verify stratigraphical patterns derived from vibracores over long distances. The overall geochronological framework of each study area is based on radiocarbon dating of biogenic material and age determination of diagnostic ceramic fragments. Results presented within this study provide distinct evidence of multiple palaeotsunami landfalls for the investigated areas. Tsunami signatures encountered in the environs of Krane, Lechaion and Kyllini include (i) coarse-grained allochthonous marine sediments intersecting silt-dominated quiescent harbour deposits and/or shallow marine environments, (ii) disturbed microfaunal assemblages and/or (iii) distinct geochemical fingerprints as well as (iv) geo-archaeological destruction layers and (v) extensive units of beachrock-type calcarenitic tsunamites. For Krane, geochronological data yielded termini ad or post quem (maximum ages) for tsunami event generations dated to 4150 ± 60 cal BC, ~ 3200 ± 110 cal BC, ~ 650 ± 110 cal BC, and ~ 930 ± 40 cal AD, respectively. Results for Lechaion suggest that the harbour was hit by strong tsunami impacts in the 8th-6th century BC, the 1st-2nd century AD and in the 6th century AD. At Kyllini, the harbour site was affected by tsunami impact in between the late 7th and early 4th cent. BC and between the 4th and 6th cent. AD. In case of Lechaion and Kyllini, the final destruction of the harbour facilities also seems to be related to the tsunami impact. Comparing the tsunami signals obtained for each study areas with geo-scientific data from palaeotsunami events from other sites indicates that the investigated harbour sites represent excellent geo-archives for supra-regional mega-tsunamis.

Metodi per l'analisi della vulnerabilità da maremoti applicati ad Augusta in Sicilia orientale

Obiettivo del lavoro di tesi è l’analisi della vulnerabilità delle strutture della città di Augusta, che è una delle aree campione scelte dal progetto europeo ASTARTE, riguardante fra l’altro la stima e la mitigazione del rischio da tsunami nei mari europei. Per prima cosa sono state ricercate le strutture tettoniche che possono dare origine a terremoti di grande magnitudo, e che possono causare in seguito devastanti tsunami, nella zona della Sicilia orientale. La Scarpata Maltese è risultata essere la caratteristica morfologica dominante in questa zona del Mediterraneo. Per l’analisi di vulnerabilità sono state utilizzate due diverse metodologie: il modello SCHEMA (SCenarios for Hazard-induced Emergencies MAnagement) e il modello PTVA-3 (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment). Il metodo SCHEMA, di tipo quantitativo, è un metodo più semplice in quanto si avvale della fotointerpretazione per assegnare ad una costruzione la classe di appartenenza in base alla sua tipologia. Poi, attraverso le matrici del danno, si assegna un livello di danno (da D0, nessun danno, a D5, collasso) in base all’altezza della colonna d’acqua. Il metodo PTVA-3, di tipo qualitativo, risulta invece essere più complicato. Infatti, per arrivare all’assegnazione dell’indice di vulnerabilità relativa (RVI), che fornisce una stima del danno subito da una data struttura, si ha bisogno di assegnare un certo numero di attributi. L’indice RVI è dato dalla somma pesata tra la vulnerabilità strutturale e la vulnerabilità dovuta all’intrusione d’acqua (percentuale di piani inondati). In conclusione si è fatto un confronto tra i due metodi, ottenendo una sovrastima del metodo PTVA-3 rispetto al metodo SCHEMA nella quantificazione del livello di danneggiamento degli edifici.

Palaeotsunami imprints in the near-coast sedimentary records of the Gulfs of Lakonia and Argolis (Peloponnese, Greece)

From historical accounts it is well-known that the coasts of the Gulfs of Lakonia and Argolis (southern and eastern Peloponnese, Greece) have been repeatedly affected by tsunamis during historical times. It is assumed that these palaeotsunamis left sedimentological and geomorphological traces in the geological record which are still detectable these days. As both gulfs are located within one of the seismically most active regions in whole western Eurasia in particular the nearby Hellenic Trench is regarded as the main trigger for tsunami generation. Against this background, selected near-coast sedimentary archives were studied by means of sedimentological, geomorphological, geophysical, geochemical and microfaunal investigations in order to detect signatures of Holocene palaeotsunamigenic activity. The investigations revealed allochthonous sediment layers featuring distinctive sedimentary characteristics of marine high-energy event deposits in most of the investigated study areas. In order to differentiate between the geomorphodynamic driving mechanisms for the deposition of the associated marine high-energy event layers, a multi-method approach was used. The detected high-energy marine deposits are suggested to be of tsunamigenic origin. Radiocarbon dating results allowed establishing local event geo-chronostratigraphies and correlations on a local and regional scale as well as correlations with already described palaeotsunami findings on a supra-regional scale. The geochronological dataset attests repeated tsunamigenic activity at least since the 5th millennium BC up to the 17th century AD. For the studied areas in southeastern Lakonia up to four palaeotsunami event generations were identified, for central Lakonia three and for the investigated areas around the Argolis Gulf also up to four. Comparing the findings with literature data, chronological correlations were found with palaeotsunami deposits detected in near-coast geological archives of Akarnania, of the southwestern, the western and northwestern Peloponnese, with event deposits found on Crete and on the Ionian Islands of Cefalonia and Lefkada as well as with findings from southeastern Sicily (Italy) and Cesarea (Israel). By the identification of multiple palaeotsunami event layers, disturbing autochthonous near-coast sedimentary records of the Gulfs of Lakonia and Argolis during the last seven millennia, a significant tsunami frequency is attested for these regions.

Numerical and semi-analytical models of sliding masses: application to the 1783 Scilla tsunamigenic landslide

The Scilla rock avalanche occurred on 6 February 1783 along the coast of the Calabria region (southern Italy), close to the Messina Strait. It was triggered by a mainshock of the Terremoto delle Calabrie seismic sequence, and it induced a tsunami wave responsible for more than 1500 casualties along the neighboring Marina Grande beach. The main goal of this work is the application of semi-analtycal and numerical models to simulate this event. The first one is a MATLAB code expressly created for this work that solves the equations of motion for sliding particles on a two-dimensional surface through a fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. The second one is a code developed by the Tsunami Research Team of the Department of Physics and Astronomy (DIFA) of the Bologna University that describes a slide as a chain of blocks able to interact while sliding down over a slope and adopts a Lagrangian point of view. A wide description of landslide phenomena and in particular of landslides induced by earthquakes and with tsunamigenic potential is proposed in the first part of the work. Subsequently, the physical and mathematical background is presented; in particular, a detailed study on derivatives discratization is provided. Later on, a description of the dynamics of a point-mass sliding on a surface is proposed together with several applications of numerical and analytical models over ideal topographies. In the last part, the dynamics of points sliding on a surface and interacting with each other is proposed. Similarly, different application on an ideal topography are shown. Finally, the applications on the 1783 Scilla event are shown and discussed.

Maximum intensity projection of cranial computed tomography data for dental identification

Dental radiographs play the major role in the identification of victims in mass casualties besides DNA. Under circumstances such as those caused by the recent tsunami in Asia, it is nearly impossible to document the entire dentition using conventional x-rays as it would be too time consuming. Multislice computed tomography can be used to scan the dentition of a deceased within minutes, and the postprocessing software allows visualization of the data adapted to every possible antemortem x-ray for identification. We introduce the maximum intensity projection of cranial computed tomography data for the purpose of dental identification exemplarily in a case of a burned corpse. As transportable CT scanners already exist, these could be used to support the disaster victim identification teams in the field.

Fukushima und die Folgen. Medienberichterstattung, Öffentliche Meinung, Politische Konsequenzen

Am 11. März 2011 ereignete sich vor der japanischen Küste ein schweres Erdbeben. Es löste einen gewaltigen Tsunami aus, der an der Ostküste Japans schwere Schäden hervorrief und fast 20.000 Menschen das Leben kostete. Im Atomkraftwerk Fukushima verursachte der Tsunami eine Reaktorkatastrophe, in deren Folge insbesondere in Deutschland eine heftige Diskussion über die Atomenergie entflammte, die schließlich zum deutschen Atomausstieg führte. Die Reaktorkatastrophe erfuhr international eine große öffentliche (Medien-) Aufmerksamkeit und rief auch die kommunikationswissenschaftliche Forschung auf den Plan. Ergebnisse dieser Forschungen, die an verschiedenen Stellen unabhängig voneinander durchgeführt wurden, sind in diesem Band versammelt. In insgesamt 13 Beiträgen werden die medialen und öffentlichen Reaktionen auf das Unglück empirisch analysiert. Die Beiträge befassen sich zum einen mit der Darstellung der Atomenergie in historischer Vergleichsperspektive, wobei die Reaktorkatastrophe in Tschernobyl als Referenzpunkt für Fukushima diente. In weiteren Beiträgen wird die Dynamik der Berichterstattung in Deutschland fokussiert. Fünf Beiträge betrachten die Reaktionen der Medien in internationaler Vergleichsperspektive und weitere vier untersuchen die Reaktionen der Bevölkerung auf die Ereignisse in Fukushima. Die Beiträge beruhen überwiegend auf quantitativen Inhaltsanalysen und Befragungen, aber es wurden auch qualitative Methoden sowie automatisierten Verfahren der Textanalyse verwendet. Zudem wurden in mehreren Studien verschiedene Formen der Datenerhebung kombiniert. Durch die Zusammenführung der unterschiedlichen Perspektiven wird eine differenzierte Einschätzung der medialen und gesellschaftlichen Konsequenzen des Extremereignisses möglich. Die Umrisse eines Forschungsprogramms für die Nachhaltigkeits-, Energie- und Umweltkommunikation werden sichtbar.

Antioxidant supplementation attenuates oxidative stress in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

Ischemia-reperfusion has been reported to be associated with augmented oxidative stress in the course of surgery, which might be causally involved in the onset of atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common arrhythmia after cardiac surgery. We hypothesized that supplementation of antioxidants and n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFAs) might lower the incidence of AF following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. In the present study, by monitoring oxidative stress in the course of CABG surgery, we analyzed the efficacy of vitamins (ascorbic acid and α-tocopherol) and/or n-3 PUFAs (eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid). Subjects (n = 75) were divided into 4 subgroups: control, vitamins, n-3 PUFAs, and a combination of vitamins and n-3 PUFAs. Fluorescent techniques were used to measure the antioxidative capacity, i.e. ability to inhibit oxidation. Total peroxides, endogenous peroxidase activity, and antibodies against oxidized LDL (oLAb) were used as serum oxidative stress biomarkers. Post-operative increase in oxidative stress was associated with the consumption of antioxidants and a simultaneous onset of AF. This was confirmed through an increased peroxide level and a decreased oLAb titer in control and n-3 PUFAs groups, indicating the binding of antibodies to oxidative modified epitopes. In both subgroups that were supplemented with vitamins, total peroxides decreased, and the maintenance of a constant IgG antibody titer was facilitated. However, treatment with vitamins or n-3 PUFAs was inefficient with respect to AF onset and its duration. We conclude that the administration of vitamins attenuates post-operative oxidative stress in the course of CABG surgery.

Statistical and methodological challenges for disaster preparedness and medical needs assessment in Rio Grande Valley of Texas

In recent years, disaster preparedness through assessment of medical and special needs persons (MSNP) has taken a center place in public eye in effect of frequent natural disasters such as hurricanes, storm surge or tsunami due to climate change and increased human activity on our planet. Statistical methods complex survey design and analysis have equally gained significance as a consequence. However, there exist many challenges still, to infer such assessments over the target population for policy level advocacy and implementation. ^ Objective. This study discusses the use of some of the statistical methods for disaster preparedness and medical needs assessment to facilitate local and state governments for its policy level decision making and logistic support to avoid any loss of life and property in future calamities. ^ Methods. In order to obtain precise and unbiased estimates for Medical Special Needs Persons (MSNP) and disaster preparedness for evacuation in Rio Grande Valley (RGV) of Texas, a stratified and cluster-randomized multi-stage sampling design was implemented. US School of Public Health, Brownsville surveyed 3088 households in three counties namely Cameron, Hidalgo, and Willacy. Multiple statistical methods were implemented and estimates were obtained taking into count probability of selection and clustering effects. Statistical methods for data analysis discussed were Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR), Survey Linear Regression (Svy-Reg), Generalized Estimation Equation (GEE) and Multilevel Mixed Models (MLM) all with and without sampling weights. ^ Results. Estimated population for RGV was 1,146,796. There were 51.5% female, 90% Hispanic, 73% married, 56% unemployed and 37% with their personal transport. 40% people attained education up to elementary school, another 42% reaching high school and only 18% went to college. Median household income is less than $15,000/year. MSNP estimated to be 44,196 (3.98%) [95% CI: 39,029; 51,123]. All statistical models are in concordance with MSNP estimates ranging from 44,000 to 48,000. MSNP estimates for statistical methods are: MLR (47,707; 95% CI: 42,462; 52,999), MLR with weights (45,882; 95% CI: 39,792; 51,972), Bootstrap Regression (47,730; 95% CI: 41,629; 53,785), GEE (47,649; 95% CI: 41,629; 53,670), GEE with weights (45,076; 95% CI: 39,029; 51,123), Svy-Reg (44,196; 95% CI: 40,004; 48,390) and MLM (46,513; 95% CI: 39,869; 53,157). ^ Conclusion. RGV is a flood zone, most susceptible to hurricanes and other natural disasters. People in the region are mostly Hispanic, under-educated with least income levels in the U.S. In case of any disaster people in large are incapacitated with only 37% have their personal transport to take care of MSNP. Local and state government’s intervention in terms of planning, preparation and support for evacuation is necessary in any such disaster to avoid loss of precious human life. ^ Key words: Complex Surveys, statistical methods, multilevel models, cluster randomized, sampling weights, raking, survey regression, generalized estimation equations (GEE), random effects, Intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC).^

Introduction to disaster epidemiology for public health personnel

There has been a renewed interest in disaster epidemiology after the World Trade Center and Pentagon terrorist attacks of 2001, the devastation of Hurricane Katrina and the overwhelming loss of life that resulted from the tsunami that originated in the Indian Ocean and struck Indonesia and other adjacent countries on December 26, 2004. Institutions that have accepted the challenge of training the next generation of public health professionals as well as to continue the education of the dedicated professionals already serving in public health fields have a responsibility to train practitioners in the basic principles of disaster epidemiology as well as in practical applications of these principles. This culminating experience project involved developing an on-line course complete with the background information as well as relevant case studies that can be used as a curriculum for an introductory course in disaster epidemiology. ^

Geochemical and physical sediment properties of sediment cores from the Portuguese shelf

Marine sediments from the Portuguese shelf are influenced by environmental changes in the surrounding continental and marine environment. These are largely controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation, but additional impacts may arise from episodic tsunamis. In order to investigate these influences, a high resolution multi-proxy study has been carried out on a 5.4 m long gravity core and five box cores from the Tagus prodelta on the western Portuguese margin, incorporating geochemical (Corg/Ntotal ratios, d13Corg, d15N, d18O, Corg and CaCO3 content) and physical sediment properties (magnetic susceptibility, grain-size). Subsurface data of the five box cores indicate no major effect of early postdepositional alteration. Surface data show a higher fraction of terrigenous organic material close to the river mouth and in the southern prodelta. Gravity core GeoB 8903 covers the last 3.2 kyrs with a temporal resolution of at least 0.1 cm/yr. Very high sedimentation rates between 69 and 140 cm core depth indicate a possible disturbance of the record by the AD1755 tsunami, although no evidence for a disturbance is observed in the data. Sea surface temperature and salinity on the prodelta, the local budget of marine NO3- as well as the provenance of organic matter remained virtually constant during the past 3.2 kyrs. A positive correlation between magnetic susceptibility (MS) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is evident for the past 250 years, coinciding with a negative correlation between mean grain-size and NAO. This is assigned to a constant riverine supply of fine material with high MS, which is diluted by the riverine input of a coarser, low-MS component during NAO negative, high-precipitation phases. End-member modelling of the lithic grain-size spectrum supports this, revealing a third, coarse lithic component. The high abundance of this coarse end-member prior to 2 kyr BP is interpreted as the result of stronger bottom currents, concentrating the coarse sediment fraction by winnowing. As continental climate was more arid prior to 2 kyr BP (Subboreal), the coarse end-member may also consist of dust from local sources. A decrease in grain-size and CaCO3 content after 2 kyr BP is interpreted as a result of decreasing wind strength. The onset of a fining trend and a further decrease in CaCO3 around AD900 occurs simultaneous to climatic variations, reconstructed from eastern North Atlantic records. A strong increase in MS between AD1400 and AD1500 indicates higher lithic terrigenous input, caused by deforestation in the hinterland.