Disaggregating the Household Sector in a 2004 UK Input Output Table and Social Accounting Matrix by Income Quintiles

This paper disaggregates a UK Input-Output (IO) table for 2004 based on household income quintiles from published survey data. In addition to the Input-Output disaggregation, the household components of a UK Income Expenditure (I-E) account used to inform a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM),have also been disaggregated by household income quintile. The focus of this paper is on household expenditure on the UK energy sector.

Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters

This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our empirical work. Given the relatively short data span of the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the need to control for many explanatory variables, we use dynamic model averaging in order to ensure a parsimonious econometric speci cation. We use both regression-based and VAR-based methods. We find no support for the backward looking behavior embedded in the Neo-classical Phillips curve. Much more support is found for the forward looking behavior of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but most of this support is found after the beginning of the financial crisis.

Ecological-economic modelling of interactions between wild and commercial bees and pesticide use

The decline in extent of wild pollinators in recent years has been partly associated with changing farm practices and in particular with increase of pesticide use. In this paper we combine ecological modelling with economic analysis of a single farm output under the assumption that both pollination and pest control are essential inputs. We show that the drive to increase farm output can lead to a local decline in the wild bee population. Commercial bees are often considered an alternative to wild pollinators, but we show that their introduction can lead to further decline and finally local extinction of wild bees. The transitions between different outcomes are characterised by threshold behaviour and are potentially difficult to predict and detect in advance. Small changes in economic (input prices) and ecological (wild bees carrying capacity and effect of pesticides on bees) can move the economic-ecological system beyond the extinction threshold. We also show that increasing the pesticide price or decreasing the commercial bee price might lead to reestablishment of wild bees following their local extinction. Thus, we demonstrate the importance of combining ecological modelling with economics to study the provision of ecosystem services and to inform sustainable management of ecosystem service providers.

The Committee on Climate Change: A policy analysis

Domestic action on climate change is increasingly important in the light of the difficulties with international agreements and requires a combination of solutions, in terms of institutions and policy instruments. One way of achieving government carbon policy goals may be the creation of an independent body to advise, set or monitor policy. This paper critically assesses the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which was created in 2008 as an independent body to help move the UK towards a low carbon economy. We look at the motivation for its creation in terms of: information provision, advice, monitoring, or policy delegation. In particular we consider its ability to overcome a time inconsistency problem by comparing and contrasting it with another independent body, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. In practice the Committee on Climate Change appears to be the ‘inverse’ of the Monetary Policy Committee, in that it advises on what the policy goal should be rather than being responsible for achieving it. The CCC incorporates both advisory and monitoring functions to inform government and achieve a credible carbon policy over a long time frame. This is a similar framework to that adopted by Stern (2006), but the CCC operates on a continuing basis. We therefore believe the CCC is best viewed as a "Rolling Stern plus" body. There are also concerns as to how binding the budgets actually are and how the budgets interact with other energy policy goals and instruments, such as Renewable Obligation Contracts and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. The CCC could potentially be reformed to include: an explicit information provision role; consumption-based accounting of emissions and control of a policy instrument such as a balanced-budget carbon tax.

Prenatal diagnosis of facial clefts : evaluation of a specialised counseling

Résumé: Questions étudiées / principes: Le diagnostic prénatal des fentes faciales et palatines a soulevé maintes questions concernant la meilleure manière d'informer les parents et d'offrir une aide appropriée durant les semaines de grossesse restant, afin de faire de la naissance une expérience positive. Le conseil prénatal diffère selon la personne qui en est responsable et ses connaissances concernant les aspects pratiques des soins ainsi que l'impact de cette malformation sur la qualité de vie de l'enfant. Le but de cette étude est d'évaluer nos techniques actuelles et de les modifier de façon appropriée. Méthodes: 29 couples ayant bénéficié d'un diagnostic prénatal ont été priés de répondre rétrospectivement à un questionnaire. L'histoire obstétrique personnelle ainsi que l'histoire familiale, le déroulement des évènements, la qualité de l'information fournie et leurs impressions à la naissance ont été considérées. Résultats: Les parents utilisent de multiples sources d'information: l'obstétricien, le conseil du chirurgien pédiatrique au sein de I « équipe fente », les groupes de soutien de parents et Internet. 93% des parents se sont sentis bien préparés à la naissance de leur enfant, autant psychologiquement que concernant les aspects pratiques des soins. 54% ont été soulagés de voir leur enfant moins affecté qu'ils ne l'imaginaient. Finalement, 96% considèrent que le diagnostic prénatal est un bénéfice. Conclusion: Une information de base devrait être apportée rapidement après l'ultrason confirmant le diagnostic, suivie de discussions techniques progressivement plus détaillées durant le temps de grossesse restant. Summary: Questions under study / principles: Prenatal diagnosis of cleft lip and palate has raised many questions concerning the best way to inform the parents and offer appropriate support during the remaining pregnancy to help prepare a positive birth experience. Prenatal counseling differs according to whose is responsible and that person's knowledge of practical aspects of care and the impact of the malformation on the child's quality of life. The aim of the study was to evaluate our current techniques and modify them when appropriate. Methods: 29 couples having experienced prenatal diagnosis were asked to respond retrospectively to a questionnaire. Personal obstetric and family history, timing and quality of information provided and their impressions at birth were considered. Results: The parents used several sources of information: the obstetrician, the counsel by the cleft team surgeon, the parents support groups and Internet. 93% of the parents felt well prepared for the birth of their child psychologically and concerning practical aspects of care. 54% felt relieved that their child was less affected than imagined. 96% considered prenatal diagnosis a benefit. Conclusion: Basic information should be provided soon after ultrasound confirmation, followed by progressively more detailed technical discussions over the remaining pregnancy.

Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

West Tyrone Area Plan 2019 Health Impact Assessment (2008)

IPH was commissioned by Western Investing for Health to conduct a HIA of the West Tyrone Area Plan 2019. Stage 1 of the HIA was submitted to the Department of the Environment, Planning Office in 2008 and part of this work involved developing a community profile. HIA seeks to inform the decision making process in favour of health by gathering evidence to identify the potential positive and negative health impacts of a proposal. A series of recommendations are then produced to maximize the positive health impacts and mitigate the potential negative health impacts of an identified proposal. West Tyrone Community A community profile provides an overview of the population structures and particular services in an identified area. This community profile provides an overview of West Tyrone and has been developed as part of a Health Impact Assessment which is currently being conducted on the West Tyrone Area Plan. This resource provides access to up-to-date information which community and voluntary groups in the West Tyrone area will find useful to support their work. Contact: Seamus Mullen, Public Health Agency Tel: +44 (0) 2871860086 Email: seamus.mullen@hscni.org

Women speaking across the Border: The impact of the Border and the conflict on women's health and roles

This research was commissioned by Derry Well Woman and carried out on its behalf by the Institute of Public Health in Ireland in association with the Institute for Conflict Research and Rethink.The research had two distinct aims:- to improve understanding of the impact of the border and of the conflict on both sidesof the border on women’s health- to improve understanding of women’s roles, particularly as they impact on mental health, in post conflict society.- The research was conducted with a view to its recommendations being used to inform the work of the Cross Border Women’  Health Network as well as other cross border health forums or organisations responsible for service planning and delivery.- The findings of this research are based on a series of 31 in-depth interviews and one focus group with women both north and south of the border and on one focus group and six interviews with women who were specifically consulted as service providers.

Climate Change and Health: A platform for action

This paper provides an introduction to the links between climate change and health and aims to inform policy-makers, politicians and the public of the benefits for health from reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)* emissions from food production, transport, energy, and waste. It also highlights the importance of action by the health sector.It presents a platform for action which demonstrates that creating healthy sustainable places and communities can go hand in hand with reducing the negative impacts of climate change.

Proposed Sugar Sweetened Drinks Tax: Health Impact Assessment

The Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) was requested by the Department of Health (RoI) to undertake a Health Impact Assessment (HIA) of a proposed tax on sugar sweetened drinks (SSDs) in 2012. The public health priority for this proposal was to consider the potential of such a tax to address the problem of overweight and obesity in Ireland. The HIA was overseen by the Special Action Group on Obesity (SAGO) and guided by a steering group. The HIA process involved a population profile, a stakeholder consultation event and a literature review. This information, paralleled by a modelling exercise undertaken by Dr. Mike Rayner and his team in the University of Oxford was presented to the steering group to inform their conclusions.

Proposed Sugar Sweetened Drinks Tax: Health Impact Assessment Technical Report

The Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) was requested by the Department of Health to undertake a Health Impact Assessment (HIA) of a proposed tax on sugar sweetened drinks (SSDs) in 2012. The public health priority for this proposal was to consider the potential of such a tax to address the problem of overweight and obesity in Ireland. The HIA was overseen by the Special Action Group on Obesity (SAGO) and guided by a steering group. The HIA process involved a population profile, a stakeholder consultation event and a literature review. This information, paralleled by a modelling exercise undertaken by Dr. Mike Rayner and his team in the University of Oxford was presented to the steering group to inform their conclusions.  This is the Technical Report.

Statutory Equality Obligations - DHSSPS Annual Progress Report (PDF 260KB)

The Department and its family of organisations made explicit their commitment to undertake on an annual basis a joint consult on the Region-Wide Equality Impact Assessment (EQIA) programme, to take account of changing priorities and circumstances and to roll it forward one year. To inform this process, the Department developed a set of Key Factors and Guiding Principles based on those set down by the Equality Commission.

The Invisible Students : Young Parents in Education

As Minister for Children, I am pleased to publish this paper on young parents and education disadvantage, which has been commissioned as part of the evaluation of the Teenage Parents Support Initiative (TPSI). The aim of this paper is to identify and discuss key aspects of the policy landscape in relation to young parentsâ?T participation in education and to inform the work of the TPSI pilot projects. For all young people, education and training offers a possible route out of poverty, social exclusion and isolation. Research suggests that teenage parents represent a particularly vulnerable group within the education system and that difficulties in continuing formal education and in accessing relevant training opportunities are significant issues for young parents and their children. Download document here

ERHA Report July 2003 (on the events surrounding the deferral of Roisin Ruddles surgery)

On being requested to complete an urgent report by the Minister for Health and Children the Authority undertook a preliminary review of the information known and drew up a series of questions for Our Ladyâ?Ts Hospital for Sick Children (OLHSC) in order to inform the writing of the report. A copy of the questions submitted to OLHSC is attached at Appendix 1. PDF 205kb

Report of the Paediatric Nurse Education Review Group

10.12.2000 The Department of Health and Children is implementing the recommendations of the Commission on Nursing (1998). It agreed with the Nursing Alliance in early 2000 to set up working groups to inform the implementation of specific recommendations in relation to nurse education. One of these working groups was to address paediatric nurse education. In March 2000, a Steering Group to oversee a review of paediatric nurse education was convened and the following terms of reference agreed. To consider the future of paediatric nurse education in the light of the recommendations of the Report of the Commission on Nursing, Labour Court recommendation LCR 16330, and current practice and development in child health services. To make recommendations within the context of current developments in nursing, nurse education and service delivery. Download the Report here