MTA-induced neutrophil recruitment: a mechanism dependent on IL-1 beta, MIP-2, and LTB(4)

Objective. The objective of this study was to investigate the mediators and the resident peritoneal cells involved in the neutrophil migration (NM) induced by mineral trioxide aggregate (MTA) in mice. Study design. MTA (25 mg/cavity) was injected into normal and pretreated peritoneal cavities (PC) with indomethacin (IND), dexamethasone (DEX), BWA4C, U75302, antimacrophage inflammatory protein-2 (MIP-2), and anti-interleukin-1 beta (IL-1 beta) antibodies and the NM was determined. The role of macrophage (MO) and mast cells (MAST) was determined by administration of thioglycollate 3% or 48/80 compound, respectively. The concentration of IL-1 beta and MIP-2 exudates was measured by ELISA. Results. MTA induced dose-and time-dependent NM into mice PC, with the participation of MO and MAST. NM was inhibited by DEX, BWA4C, and U75302, as well as anti-MIP-2 and anti-IL-1 beta antibodies. In the exudates, IL-1 beta and MIP-2 were detected. Conclusions. This study suggests that MTA induces NM via a mechanism dependent on MAST and MO mediated by IL-1 beta, MIP-2, and LTB(4).

Time evolution in the unimolecular master equation at low temperatures: full spectral solution with scalable iterative methods and high precision

A new method is presented to determine an accurate eigendecomposition of difficult low temperature unimolecular master equation problems. Based on a generalisation of the Nesbet method, the new method is capable of achieving complete spectral resolution of the master equation matrix with relative accuracy in the eigenvectors. The method is applied to a test case of the decomposition of ethane at 300 K from a microcanonical initial population with energy transfer modelled by both Ergodic Collision Theory and the exponential-down model. The fact that quadruple precision (16-byte) arithmetic is required irrespective of the eigensolution method used is demonstrated. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of physical activity on emotional well-being among older Australian women - Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses

Objective: To explore relationships between physical activity and mental health cross-sectionally and longitudinally in a large cohort of older Australian women. Method: Women in their 70s participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health responded in 1996 (aged 70-75) and in 1999 (aged 73-78). Cross-sectional data were analyzed for 10,063 women and longitudinal data for 6472. Self-reports were used to categorize women into four categories of physical activity at each time point as well as to define four physical activity transition categories across the 3-year period. Outcome variables for the cross-sectional analyses were the mental health component score (MCS) and mental health subscales of the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form (SF-36). The longitudinal analyses focused on changes in these variables. Confounders included the physical health component scale (PCS) of the SF-36, marital status, body mass index (BMI) and life events. Adjustment for baseline scores was included for the longitudinal analyses. Results: Cross-sectionally, higher levels of physical activity were associated with higher scores on all dependent variables, both with and without adjustment for confounders. Longitudinally, the effects were weaker, but women who had made a transition from some physical activity to none generally showed more negative changes in emotional well-being than those who had always been sedentary, while those who maintained or adopted physical activity had better outcomes. Conclusion: Physical activity is associated with emotional well-being among a population cohort of older women both cross-sectionally and longitudinally, supporting the need for the promotion of appropriate physical activity in this age group. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Efeitos de um programa baseado em tarefas orientadas na competência de marcha em indivíduos com acidente vascular cerebral

Mestrado em Fisioterapia.

Risk factors for osteoporotic fractures and low bone density in pre and postmenopausal women

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence and analyze risk factors associated to osteoporosis and low-trauma fracture in women. METHODS: Cross-sectional study including a total of 4,332 women older than 40 attending primary care services in the Greater São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, between 2004 and 2007. Anthropometrical and gynecological data and information about lifestyle habits, previous fracture, medical history, food intake and physical activity were obtained through individual quantitative interviews. Low-trauma fracture was defined as that resulting from a fall from standing height or less in individuals 50 years or older. Multiple logistic regression models were designed having osteoporotic fracture and bone mineral density (BMD) as the dependent variables and all other parameters as the independent ones. The significance level was set at p<0.05. RESULTS: The prevalence of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures was 33% and 11.5%, respectively. The main risk factors associated with low bone mass were age (OR=1.07; 95% CI: 1.06;1.08), time since menopause (OR=2.16; 95% CI: 1.49;3.14), previous fracture (OR=2.62; 95% CI: 2.08;3.29) and current smoking (OR=1.45; 95% CI: 1.13;1.85). BMI (OR=0.88; 95% CI: 0.86;0.89), regular physical activity (OR=0.78; 95% CI: 0.65;0.94) and hormone replacement therapy (OR=0.43; 95% CI: 0.33;0.56) had a protective effect on bone mass. Risk factors significantly associated with osteoporotic fractures were age (OR=1.05; 95% CI: 1.04;1.06), time since menopause (OR=4.12; 95% CI: 1.79;9.48), familial history of hip fracture (OR=3.59; 95% CI: 2.88;4.47) and low BMD (OR=2.28; 95% CI: 1.85;2.82). CONCLUSIONS: Advanced age, menopause, low-trauma fracture and current smoking are major risk factors associated with low BMD and osteoporotic fracture. The clinical use of these parameters to identify women at higher risk for fractures might be a reasonable strategy to improve the management of osteoporosis.

A feedback-based decentralised coordination model for distributed open real-time systems

Moving towards autonomous operation and management of increasingly complex open distributed real-time systems poses very significant challenges. This is particularly true when reaction to events must be done in a timely and predictable manner while guaranteeing Quality of Service (QoS) constraints imposed by users, the environment, or applications. In these scenarios, the system should be able to maintain a global feasible QoS level while allowing individual nodes to autonomously adapt under different constraints of resource availability and input quality. This paper shows how decentralised coordination of a group of autonomous interdependent nodes can emerge with little communication, based on the robust self-organising principles of feedback. Positive feedback is used to reinforce the selection of the new desired global service solution, while negative feedback discourages nodes to act in a greedy fashion as this adversely impacts on the provided service levels at neighbouring nodes. The proposed protocol is general enough to be used in a wide range of scenarios characterised by a high degree of openness and dynamism where coordination tasks need to be time dependent. As the reported results demonstrate, it requires less messages to be exchanged and it is faster to achieve a globally acceptable near-optimal solution than other available approaches.

Intra-hospital organ and tissue donation coordination project: cost-effectiveness and social benefits

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the viability of a professional specialist in intra-hospital committees of organ and tissue donation for transplantation. METHODS Epidemiological, retrospective and cross-sectional study (2003-2011 and 2008-2012), which was performed using organ donation for transplants data in the state of Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil. Nine hospitals were evaluated (hospitals 1 to 9). Logistic regression was used to evaluate the differences in the number of brain death referrals and actual donors (dependent variables) after the professional specialist started work (independent variable) at the intra-hospital committee of organ and tissue donation for transplantation. To evaluate the hospital invoicing, the hourly wage of the doctor and registered nurse, according to the legislation of the Consolidation of Labor Laws, were calculated, as were the investment return and the time elapsed to do so. RESULTS Following the nursing specialist commencement on the committee, brain death referrals and the number of actual donors increased at hospital 2 (4.17 and 1.52, respectively). At hospital 7, the number of actual donors also increased from 0.005 to 1.54. In addition, after the nurse started working, hospital revenues increased by 190.0% (ranging 40.0% to 1.955%). The monthly cost for the nurse working 20 hours was US$397.97 while the doctor would cost US$3,526.67. The return on investment was 275% over the short term (0.36 years). CONCLUSIONS This paper showed that including a professional specialist in intra-hospital committees for organ and tissue donation for transplantation proved to be cost-effective. Further economic research in the area could contribute to the efficient public policy implementation of this organ and tissue harvesting model.

A numerical analysis of generalized Boussinesq-type equation using continuos/discontinuous FEM

An improved class of Boussinesq systems of an arbitrary order using a wave surface elevation and velocity potential formulation is derived. Dissipative effects and wave generation due to a time-dependent varying seabed are included. Thus, high-order source functions are considered. For the reduction of the system order and maintenance of some dispersive characteristics of the higher-order models, an extra O(mu 2n+2) term (n ??? N) is included in the velocity potential expansion. We introduce a nonlocal continuous/discontinuous Galerkin FEM with inner penalty terms to calculate the numerical solutions of the improved fourth-order models. The discretization of the spatial variables is made using continuous P2 Lagrange elements. A predictor-corrector scheme with an initialization given by an explicit RungeKutta method is also used for the time-variable integration. Moreover, a CFL-type condition is deduced for the linear problem with a constant bathymetry. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, we considered several test cases. Improved stability is achieved.

Estudo da exposição profissional a formaldeído em laboratórios hospitalares de anatomia patológica

RESUMO - A exposição a formaldeído é reconhecidamente um dos mais importantes factores de risco presente nos laboratórios hospitalares de anatomia patológica. Neste contexto ocupacional, o formaldeído é utilizado em solução, designada comummente por formol. Trata-se de uma solução comercial de formaldeído, normalmente diluída a 10%, sendo pouco onerosa e, por esse motivo, a eleita para os trabalhos de rotina em anatomia patológica. A solução é utilizada como fixador e conservante do material biológico, pelo que as peças anatómicas a serem processadas são previamente impregnadas. No que concerne aos efeitos para a saúde do formaldeído, os efeitos locais parecem apresentar um papel mais importante comparativamente com os efeitos sistémicos, devido à sua reactividade e rápido metabolismo nas células da pele, tracto gastrointestinal e pulmões. Da mesma forma, a localização das lesões correspondem principalmente às zonas expostas às doses mais elevadas deste agente químico, ou seja, o desenvolvimento dos efeitos tóxicos dependerá mais da intensidade da dose externa do que da duração da exposição. O efeito do formaldeído no organismo humano mais facilmente detectável é a acção irritante, transitória e reversível sobre as mucosas dos olhos e aparelho respiratório superior (naso e orofaringe), o que acontece em geral para exposições frequentes e superiores a 1 ppm. Doses elevadas são citotóxicas e podem conduzir a degenerescência e necrose das mucosas e epitélios. No que concerne aos efeitos cancerígenos, a primeira avaliação efectuada pela International Agency for Research on Cancer data de 1981, actualizada em 1982, 1987, 1995 e 2004, considerando-o como um agente cancerígeno do grupo 2A (provavelmente carcinogénico). No entanto, a mais recente avaliação, em 2006, considera o formaldeído no Grupo 1 (agente carcinogénico) com base na evidência de que a exposição a este agente é susceptível de causar cancro nasofaríngeo em humanos. Constituiu objectivo principal deste estudo caracterizar a exposição profissional a formaldeído nos laboratórios hospitalares de anatomia patológica Portugueses. Pretendeu-se, ainda, descrever os fenómenos ambientais da contaminação ambiental por formaldeído e explorar eventuais associações entre variáveis. Considerou-se uma amostra de 10 laboratórios hospitalares de anatomia patológica, avaliada a exposição dos três grupos profissionais por comparação com os dois referenciais de exposição e, ainda, conhecidos os valores de concentração máxima em 83 actividades. Foram aplicados simultaneamente dois métodos distintos de avaliação ambiental: um dos métodos (Método 1) fez uso de um equipamento de leitura directa com o princípio de medição por Photo Ionization Detection, com uma lâmpada de 11,7 eV e, simultaneamente, realizou-se o registo da actividade. Este método disponibilizou dados para o referencial de exposição da concentração máxima; o outro método (Método 2) traduziu-se na aplicação do método NIOSH 2541, implicando o uso de bombas de amostragem eléctricas de baixo caudal e posterior processamento analítico das amostras por cromatografia gasosa. Este método, por sua vez, facultou dados para o referencial de exposição da concentração média ponderada. As estratégias de medição de cada um dos métodos e a definição dos grupos de exposição existentes neste contexto ocupacional, designadamente os Técnicos de Anatomia Patológica, os Médicos Anatomo-Patologistas e os Auxiliares, foram possíveis através da informação disponibilizada pelas técnicas de observação da actividade da análise (ergonómica) do trabalho. Estudaram-se diversas variáveis independentes, nomeadamente a temperatura ambiente e a humidade relativa, a solução de formaldeído utilizada, as condições de ventilação existentes e o número médio de peças processadas por dia em cada laboratório. Para a recolha de informação sobre estas variáveis foi preenchida, durante a permanência nos laboratórios estudados, uma Grelha de Observação e Registo. Como variáveis dependentes seleccionaram-se três indicadores de contaminação ambiental, designadamente o valor médio das concentrações superiores a 0,3 ppm em cada laboratório, a Concentração Média Ponderada obtida para cada grupo de exposição e o Índice do Tempo de Regeneração de cada laboratório. Os indicadores foram calculados e definidos através dos dados obtidos pelos dois métodos de avaliação ambiental aplicados. Baseada no delineado pela Universidade de Queensland, foi ainda aplicada uma metodologia de avaliação do risco de cancro nasofaríngeo nas 83 actividades estudadas de modo a definir níveis semi-quantitativos de estimação do risco. Para o nível de Gravidade considerou-se a informação disponível em literatura científica que define eventos biológicos adversos, relacionados com o modo de acção do agente químico e os associa com concentrações ambientais de formaldeído. Para o nível da Probabilidade utilizou-se a informação disponibilizada pela análise (ergonómica) de trabalho que permitiu conhecer a frequência de realização de cada uma das actividades estudadas. A aplicação simultânea dos dois métodos de avaliação ambiental resultou na obtenção de resultados distintos, mas não contraditórios, no que concerne à avaliação da exposição profissional a formaldeído. Para as actividades estudadas (n=83) verificou-se que cerca de 93% dos valores são superiores ao valor limite de exposição definido para a concentração máxima (VLE-CM=0,3 ppm). O “exame macroscópico” foi a actividade mais estudada e onde se verificou a maior prevalência de resultados superiores ao valor limite (92,8%). O valor médio mais elevado da concentração máxima (2,04 ppm) verificou-se no grupo de exposição dos Técnicos de Anatomia Patológica. No entanto, a maior amplitude de resultados observou-se no grupo dos Médicos Anatomo-Patologistas (0,21 ppm a 5,02 ppm). No que respeita ao referencial da Concentração Média Ponderada, todos os valores obtidos nos 10 laboratórios estudados para os três grupos de exposição foram inferiores ao valor limite de exposição definido pela Occupational Safety and Health Administration (TLV-TWA=0,75 ppm). Verificou-se associação estatisticamente significativa entre o número médio de peças processadas por laboratório e dois dos três indicadores de contaminação ambiental utilizados, designadamente o valor médio das concentrações superiores a 0,3 ppm (p=0,009) e o Índice do Tempo de Regeneração (p=0,001). Relativamente à temperatura ambiente não se observou associação estatisticamente significativa com nenhum dos indicadores de contaminação ambiental utilizados. A humidade relativa apresentou uma associação estatisticamente significativa apenas com o indicador de contaminação ambiental da Concentração Média Ponderada de dois grupos de exposição, nomeadamente com os Médicos Anatomo-Patologistas (p=0,02) e os Técnicos de Anatomia Patológica (p=0,04). A aplicação da metodologia de avaliação do risco nas 83 actividades estudadas permitiu verificar que, em cerca de dois terços (35%), o risco foi classificado como (pelo menos) elevado e, ainda, constatar que 70% dos laboratórios apresentou pelo menos 1 actividade com a classificação de risco elevado. Da aplicação dos dois métodos de avaliação ambiental e das informações obtidas para os dois referenciais de exposição pode concluir-se que o referencial mais adequado é a Concentração Máxima por estar associado ao modo de actuação do agente químico. Acresce, ainda, que um método de avaliação ambiental, como o Método 1, que permite o estudo das concentrações de formaldeído e simultaneamente a realização do registo da actividade, disponibiliza informações pertinentes para a intervenção preventiva da exposição por permitir identificar as actividades com a exposição mais elevada, bem como as variáveis que a condicionam. As peças anatómicas apresentaram-se como a principal fonte de contaminação ambiental por formaldeído neste contexto ocupacional. Aspecto de particular interesse, na medida que a actividade desenvolvida neste contexto ocupacional e, em particular na sala de entradas, é centrada no processamento das peças anatómicas. Dado não se perspectivar a curto prazo a eliminação do formaldeído, devido ao grande número de actividades que envolvem ainda a utilização da sua solução comercial (formol), pode concluir-se que a exposição a este agente neste contexto ocupacional específico é preocupante, carecendo de uma intervenção rápida com o objectivo de minimizar a exposição e prevenir os potenciais efeitos para a saúde dos trabalhadores expostos. ---------------- ABSTRACT - Exposure to formaldehyde is recognized as one of the most important risk factors present in anatomy and pathology laboratories from hospital settings. In this occupational setting, formaldehyde is used in solution, typically diluted to 10%, and is an inexpensive product. Because of that, is used in routine work in anatomy and pathology laboratories. The solution is applied as a fixative and preservative of biological material. Regarding formaldehyde health effects, local effects appear to have a more important role compared with systemic effects, due to his reactivity and rapid metabolism in skin, gastrointestinal tract and lungs cells. Likewise, lesions location correspond mainly to areas exposed to higher doses and toxic effects development depend more on external dose intensity than exposure duration. Human body formaldehyde effect more easily detectable is the irritating action, transient and reversible on eyes and upper respiratory tract (nasal and throat) membranes, which happen in general for frequent exposure to concentrations higher than 1 ppm. High doses are cytotoxic and can lead to degeneration, and also to mucous membranes and epithelia necrosis. With regard to carcinogenic effects, first assessment performed by International Agency for Research on Cancer in 1981, updated in 1982, 1987, 1995 and 2004, classified formaldehyde in Group 2A (probably carcinogenic). However, most recent evaluation in 2006, classifies formaldehyde carcinogenic (Group 1), based on evidence that exposure to this agent is likely to cause nasopharyngeal cancer in humans. This study principal objective was to characterize occupational exposure to formaldehyde in anatomy and pathology hospital laboratories, as well to describe formaldehyde environmental contamination phenomena and explore possible associations between variables. It was considered a sample of 10 hospital pathology laboratories, assessed exposure of three professional groups for comparison with two exposure metrics, and also knows ceiling concentrations in 83 activities. Were applied, simultaneously, two different environmental assessment methods: one method (Method 1) using direct reading equipment that perform measure by Photo Ionization Detection, with 11,7 eV lamps and, simultaneously, make activity description and film. This method provided data for ceiling concentrations for each activity study (TLV-C). In the other applied method (Method 2), air sampling and formaldehyde analysis were performed according to NIOSH method (2541). This method provided data average exposure concentration (TLV-TWA). Measuring and sampling strategies of each methods and exposure groups definition (Technicians, Pathologists and Assistants) was possible by information provided by activities (ergonomic) analysis. Several independent variables were studied, including temperature and relative humidity, formaldehyde solution used, ventilation conditions, and also anatomic pieces mean value processed per day in each laboratory. To register information about these variables was completed an Observation and Registration Grid. Three environmental contamination indicators were selected has dependent variables namely: mean value from concentrations exceeding 0,3 ppm in each laboratory, weighted average concentration obtained for each exposure group, as well each laboratory Time Regeneration Index. These indicators were calculated and determined through data obtained by the two environmental assessment methods. Based on Queensland University proposal, was also applied a methodology for assessing nasopharyngeal cancer risk in 83 activities studied in order to obtain risk levels (semi-quantitative estimation). For Severity level was considered available information in scientific literature that defines biological adverse events related to the chemical agent action mode, and associated with environment formaldehyde concentrations. For Probability level was used information provided by (ergonomic) work analysis that helped identifies activity frequency. Environmental assessment methods provide different results, but not contradictory, regarding formaldehyde occupational exposure evaluation. In the studied activities (n=83), about 93% of the values were above exposure limit value set for ceiling concentration in Portugal (VLE-CM = 0,3 ppm). "Macroscopic exam" was the most studied activity, and obtained the higher prevalence of results superior than 0,3 ppm (92,8%). The highest ceiling concentration mean value (2,04 ppm) was obtain in Technicians exposure group, but a result wider range was observed in Pathologists group (0,21 ppm to 5,02 ppm). Concerning Method 2, results from the three exposure groups, were all lower than limit value set by Occupational Safety and Health Administration (TLV-TWA=0,75ppm). There was a statistically significant association between anatomic pieces mean value processed by each laboratory per day, and two of the three environmental contamination indicators used, namely average concentrations exceeding 0,3 ppm (p=0,009) and Time Regeneration Index (p=0,001). Temperature was not statistically associated with any environmental contamination used indicators. Relative humidity had a statistically significant association only with one environmental contamination indicator, namely weighted average concentration, particularly with Pathologists group (p=0,02) and Technicians group (p=0,04). Risk assessment performed in the 83 studied activities showed that around two thirds (35%) were classified as (at least) high, and also noted that 70% of laboratories had at least 1 activity with high risk rating. The two environmental assessment methods application, as well information obtained from two exposure metrics, allowed to conclude that most appropriate exposure metric is ceiling concentration, because is associated with formaldehyde action mode. Moreover, an environmental method, like Method 1, which allows study formaldehyde concentrations and relates them with activity, provides relevant information for preventive information, since identifies the activity with higher exposure, as well variables that promote exposure. Anatomic pieces represent formaldehyde contamination main source in this occupational setting, and this is of particular interest because all activities are focused on anatomic pieces processing. Since there is no prospect, in short term, for formaldehyde use elimination due to large number of activities that still involve solution use, it can be concluded that exposure to this agent, in this particular occupational setting, is preoccupant, requiring an rapid intervention in order to minimize exposure and prevent potential health effects in exposed workers.

Non-linear time series models

The last three decades have seen quite dramatic changes the way we modeled time dependent data. Linear processes have been in the center stage in modeling time series. As far as the second order properties are concerned, the theory and the methodology are very adequate.However, there are more and more evidences that linear models are not sufficiently flexible and rich enough for modeling purposes and that failure to account for non-linearities can be very misleading and have undesired consequences.

In situ measured cross section geometry of old timber structures and its influence on structural safety

Old timber structures may show significant variation in the cross section geometry along the same element, as a result of both construction methods and deterioration. As consequence, the definition of the geometric parameters in situ may be both time consuming and costly. This work presents the results of inspections carried out in different timber structures. Based on the obtained results, different simplified geometric models are proposed in order to efficiently model the geometry variations found. Probabilistic modelling techniques are also used to define safety parameters of existing timber structures, when subjected to dead and live loads, namely self-weight and wind actions. The parameters of the models have been defined as probabilistic variables, and safety of a selected case study was assessed using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. Assuming a target reliability index, a model was defined for both the residual cross section and the time dependent deterioration evolution. As a consequence, it was possible to compute probabilities of failure and reliability indices, as well as, time evolution deterioration curves for this structure. The results obtained provide a proposal for definition of the cross section geometric parameters of existing timber structures with different levels of decay, using a simplified probabilistic geometry model and considering a remaining capacity factor for the decayed areas. This model can be used for assessing the safety of the structure at present and for predicting future performance.

Self-esteem, assertiveness and resilience in adolescents institutionalized

The institutionalization of children and adolescents has been an increasingly visible problem in modern society. Unfavourable socio-economic conditions have been joining the behavior problems and school absenteeism. When the family fails in its competence for education, social security or the Court withdraws the child or adolescent to a host institution. The aim of this research was to characterize self-esteem, assertiveness and resilience of institutionalized adolescents in the northern region of Portugal and to establish associations with these dependent variables and gender, scholar level and duration of the institutionalization. For the purpose of this study a wider questionnaire was carried out, and validated with a smaller group. It was a transversal study following a predominantly quantitative methodology, with a convenience sample. The sample included 101 adolescents (55 female and 46 males) from eight institutions, aged between 11 to 21 years old (average 15.45). For self-esteem the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (Rosenberg, 1965), already validate for Portuguese adolescents, was used. For assertiveness and resilience it was applied the Global Evaluation Scale of Assertiveness and the Global Evaluation Scale of Resilience (Jardim & Pereira, 2006) we previously adapted and validated for adolescents. Collected data was introduced in a SPSS database. A descriptive analysis was done to characterize the sample concerning all the variables. To establish associations between individual factors and dependent variables t test, correlations and non-parametric test were applied. Results indicated a relatively low self-esteem (28.03), with girls having a lower value than boys, without significant differences. No correlations were found between self-esteem and the time in the institution. Assertiveness of the sample is average (23.97) and higher for girls than boys, with a positive significant correlation with the scholar grade. Also the resilience is average (25.97), having girls a little lower mean than boys and no significant differences or correlations were found.

Large Bayesian VARMAs

Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) models have many theoretical properties which should make them popular among empirical macroeconomists. However, they are rarely used in practice due to over-parameterization concerns, difficulties in ensuring identification and computational challenges. With the growing interest in multivariate time series models of high dimension, these problems with VARMAs become even more acute, accounting for the dominance of VARs in this field. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach for inference in VARMAs which surmounts these problems. It jointly ensures identification and parsimony in the context of an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We use this approach in a macroeconomic application involving up to twelve dependent variables. We find our algorithm to work successfully and provide insights beyond those provided by VARs.

Factors associated with improvement in disability-adjusted life years in patients with HIV/AIDS

Background The epidemic of HIV/AIDS and treatments that have emerged to alleviate, have brought about a shift in the burden of disease from death to quality of life/disability. The aim was to determine which factors are associated with improvements in the level of health of male and female patients with HIV/AIDS in Andalusia, in terms of disability-adjusted life years. Methods Descriptive study based on a sample group of 8800 people on the Andalusian AIDS register between 1983 and 2004. Dependent variables: Life lost due to premature mortality (YLL), years lost due to disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life years (DALY). Independent variables: vital state, sex, age at the time of diagnosis, age at the time of death, transmission category, province of residence, AIDS-indicator disease and the period of diagnosis. A bivariate analysis was carried out to find out if the health level variables changed in accordance with the independent variables. Using the independent variables which had a statistically significant link with the level of health variables, a multivariate linear regression model, disaggregated by gender, was constructed. Results Amongst the women, we found a model which explained the level of health of 64.9%: a link was found between a higher level of health (lower DALYs) and not intravenous drug use, the province of residence, being diagnosed during the HAART era and older age at the time of diagnosis. Amongst the men, we found a model which explained the level of health of 64.4%: a link was found between a higher level of health (lower DALYs) and intravenous drug use, the province of residence, being diagnosed during the HAART era and older age at the time of diagnosis. Conclusion A higher level of health (lower DALY) amongst both men and women was found to be linked to not be intravenous drug user, the province of residence, being diagnosed during the HAART era and older age at the time of diagnosis.

Broad-scale adaptive genetic variation in alpine plants is driven by temperature and precipitation.

Identifying adaptive genetic variation is a challenging task, in particular in non-model species for which genomic information is still limited or absent. Here, we studied distribution patterns of amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) in response to environmental variation, in 13 alpine plant species consistently sampled across the entire European Alps. Multiple linear regressions were performed between AFLP allele frequencies per site as dependent variables and two categories of independent variables, namely Moran's eigenvector map MEM variables (to account for spatial and unaccounted environmental variation, and historical demographic processes) and environmental variables. These associations allowed the identification of 153 loci of ecological relevance. Univariate regressions between allele frequency and each environmental factor further showed that loci of ecological relevance were mainly correlated with MEM variables. We found that precipitation and temperature were the best environmental predictors, whereas topographic factors were rarely involved in environmental associations. Climatic factors, subject to rapid variation as a result of the current global warming, are known to strongly influence the fate of alpine plants. Our study shows, for the first time for a large number of species, that the same environmental variables are drivers of plant adaptation at the scale of a whole biome, here the European Alps.