Non-monotone insurance contracts and their empirical consequences

The goal of this paper is to show the possibility of a non-monotone relation between coverage ans risk which has been considered in the literature of insurance models since the work of Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976). We present an insurance model where the insured agents have heterogeneity in risk aversion and in lenience (a prevention cost parameter). Risk aversion is described by a continuous parameter which is correlated with lenience and for the sake of simplicity, we assume perfect correlation. In the case of positive correlation, the more risk averse agent has higher cosr of prevention leading to a higher demand for coverage. Equivalently, the single crossing property (SCP) is valid and iplies a positive correlation between overage and risk in equilibrium. On the other hand, if the correlation between risk aversion and lenience is negative, not only may the SCP be broken, but also the monotonocity of contracts, i.e., the prediction that high (low) risk averse types choose full (partial) insurance. In both cases riskiness is monotonic in risk aversion, but in the last case there are some coverage levels associated with two different risks (low and high), which implies that the ex-ante (with respect to the risk aversion distribution) correlation between coverage and riskiness may have every sign (even though the ex-post correlation is always positive). Moreover, using another instrument (a proxy for riskiness), we give a testable implication to desentangle single crossing ans non single croosing under an ex-post zero correlation result: the monotonicity of coverage as a function os riskiness. Since by controlling for risk aversion (no asymmetric information), coverage is monotone function of riskiness, this also fives a test for asymmetric information. Finally, we relate this theoretical results to empirical tests in the recent literature, specially the Dionne, Gouruéroux and Vanasse (2001) work. In particular, they found an empirical evidence that seems to be compatible with asymmetric information and non single crossing in our framework. More generally, we build a hidden information model showing how omitted variables (asymmetric information) can bias the sign of the correlation of equilibrium variables conditioning on all observable variables. We show that this may be the case when the omitted variables have a non-monotonic relation with the observable ones. Moreover, because this non-dimensional does not capture this deature. Hence, our main results is to point out the importance of the SPC in testing predictions of the hidden information models.

Wald tests for IV regression with weak instruments

This dissertation deals with the problem of making inference when there is weak identification in models of instrumental variables regression. More specifically we are interested in one-sided hypothesis testing for the coefficient of the endogenous variable when the instruments are weak. The focus is on the conditional tests based on likelihood ratio, score and Wald statistics. Theoretical and numerical work shows that the conditional t-test based on the two-stage least square (2SLS) estimator performs well even when instruments are weakly correlated with the endogenous variable. The conditional approach correct uniformly its size and when the population F-statistic is as small as two, its power is near the power envelopes for similar and non-similar tests. This finding is surprising considering the bad performance of the two-sided conditional t-tests found in Andrews, Moreira and Stock (2007). Given this counter intuitive result, we propose novel two-sided t-tests which are approximately unbiased and can perform as well as the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test of Moreira (2003).

Non-monotone insurence contracts and their empirical consequences

The goal of t.his paper is to show the possibility of a non-monot.one relation between coverage and risk which has been considered in the literature of insurance models since the work of Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976). We present an insurance model where the insured agents have heterogeneity in risk aversion and in lenience (a prevention cost parameter). Risk aversion is described by a continuou.'l parameter which is correlated with lenience and, for the sake of simplicity, we assume perfect correlation. In the case of positive correlation, the more risk averse agent has higher cost of prevention leading to a higher demand for coverage. Equivalently, the single crossing property (SCP) is valid and implies a positive correlation between coverage and risk in equilibrium. On the other hand, if the correlation between risk aversion and lenience is negative, not only may the sep be broken, but also the monotonicity of contracts, i.e., the prediction that high (Iow) risk averse types choose full (partial) insurance. In both cases riskiness is monotonic in risk aversion, but in the last case t,here are some coverage leveIs associated with two different risks (low and high), which implies that the ex-ante (with respect to the risk aversion distribution) correlation bet,ween coverage and riskiness may have every sign (even though the ex-post correlation is always positive). Moreover, using another instrument (a proxy for riskiness), we give a testable implication to disentangle single crossing and non single crossing under an ex-post zero correlation result: the monotonicity of coverage as a function of riskiness. Since by controlling for risk aversion (no asymmetric informat, ion), coverage is a monotone function of riskiness, this also gives a test for asymmetric information. Finally, we relate this theoretical results to empirica! tests in the recent literature, specially the Dionne, Gouriéroux and Vanasse (2001) work. In particular, they found an empirical evidence that seems to be compatible with asymmetric information and non single crossing in our framework. More generally, we build a hidden information model showing how omitted variabIes (asymmetric information) can bias the sign of the correlation of equilibrium variabIes conditioning on ali observabIe variabIes. We show that this may be t,he case when the omitted variabIes have a non-monotonic reIation with t,he observable ones. Moreover, because this non-monotonic reIat,ion is deepIy reIated with the failure of the SCP in one-dimensional screening problems, the existing lit.erature on asymmetric information does not capture t,his feature. Hence, our main result is to point Out the importance of t,he SCP in testing predictions of the hidden information models.

Low cost non-intrusive home energy monitoring

This thesis presents a low cost non-intrusive home energy monitor built on top of Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) concepts and techniques. NILM solutions are already considered low cost alternatives to the big majority of existing commercial energy monitors but the goal here is to make its cost even lower by using a mini netbook as a whole in one solution. The mini netbook is installed in the homes main circuit breaker and computes power consumption by reading current and voltage from the built-in sound card. At the same time, feedback to the users is provided using the 11’’ LCD screen as well as other built-in I/O modules. Our meter is also capable of detecting changes in power and tries to find out which appliance lead to that change and it is being used as part of an eco-feedback platform that was build to study the long terms of energy eco-feedback in individuals. In this thesis the steps that were taken to come up with such a system are presented, from the basics of AC power measurements to the implementation of an event detector and classifier that was used to disaggregate the power load. In the last chapter results from some validation tests that have been performed are presented in order to validate the experiment. It is believed that such a system will not only be important as an energy monitor, but also as an open system than can be easily changed to accommodate and test new or existing nonintrusive load monitoring techniques.

Non-inclusion complexes between riboflavin and cyclodextrins

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Feeding non-preference by Spodoptera frugiperda and Spodoptera eridania on tomato genotypes

Lagartas do gênero Spodoptera spp. são altamente polífagas, podendo causar danos econômicos em diversas culturas agrícolas. em vista de sua emergente importância na cultura do tomate, principalmente o destinado à indústria, este trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar a não preferência, para alimentação, de lagartas de Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith, 1797) e Spodoptera eridania (Cramer, 1782) por genótipos de tomateiro, e classificá-los quanto aos graus de resistência. Como padrão susceptível, utilizou-se o cultivar comercial Santa Clara e, como resistente, a linhagem PI 134417, sendo avaliadas, ainda, as linhagens PI 134418, PI 126931, LA 462 e LA 716. Realizaram-se testes de não preferência, para alimentação, com e sem chance de escolha, avaliando-se a atratividade dos genótipos de tomateiro para as lagartas, em tempos pré-estabelecidos após sua liberação, além da massa foliar consumida. em geral, os genótipos LA 716 e PI 126931 foram os menos atrativos para a S. frugiperda, enquanto Santa Clara foi o mais atrativo e consumido. Quanto a S. eridania, os genótipos PI 126931, LA 462, LA 716 e PI 134418 foram os menos preferidos, para a alimentação, pelas lagartas, e Santa Clara e PI 134417 foram os mais atrativos e consumidos. Os genótipos LA e PI 126931 são moderadamente resistentes, do tipo não preferência para alimentação, para a S. frugiperda e S. eridania; PI 134418 e LA 462 são moderadamente resistentes a S. eridania; PI 134417 é susceptível a S. frugiperda e S. eridania; Santa Clara é altamente susceptível a S. frugiperda e S. eridania.

Experimental measurements of the NOx and CO concentrations operating in oscillatory and non-oscillatory burning conditions

The effects of combustion driven acoustic oscillations in carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides emission rates of a combustor operated with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) were investigated. Because the fuel does not contain nitrogen, tests were also conducted with ammonia injected in the fuel, in order to study the formation of fuel NOx. The main conclusions were: (a) the pulsating combustion process is more efficient than the non-pulsating one and (b) the pulsating combustion process generates higher rates of NOx, with and without ammonia injection, as shown by CO and NO concentrations as function of the O-2 concentration. An increase in the LPG flow rate, keeping constant the air to fuel ratio, increased the acoustic pressure amplitude and the frequency of oscillation. The injection of ammonia had no influence on either pressure amplitude or frequency. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correlation of microcrack fracture size with fatigue cycling on non-crimp fabric/RTM6 composite in the uniaxial fatigue test

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Carbon fiber non-crimp multi-axial reinforcement and epoxy mono-component system composite: fatigue behavior

Fiber reinforced polymer composites have been widely applied in the aeronautical field. However, composite processing, which uses unlocked molds, should be avoided in view of the tight requirements and also due to possible environmental contamination. To produce high performance structural frames meeting aeronautical reproducibility and low cost criteria, the Brazilian industry has shown interest to investigate the resin transfer molding process (RTM) considering being a closed-mold pressure injection system which allows faster gel and cure times. Due to the fibrous composite anisotropic and non homogeneity characteristics, the fatigue behavior is a complex phenomenon quite different from to metals materials crucial to be investigated considering the aeronautical application. Fatigue sub-scale specimens of intermediate modulus carbon fiber non-crimp multi-axial reinforcement and epoxy mono-component system composite were produced according to the ASTM 3039 D. Axial fatigue tests were carried out according to ASTM D 3479. A sinusoidal load of 10 Hz frequency and load ratio R = 0.1. It was observed a high fatigue interval obtained for NCF/RTM6 composites. Weibull statistical analysis was applied to describe the failure probability of materials under cyclic loads and fractures pattern was observed by scanning electron microscopy. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Reactive power dispatch and planning using a non-linear branch-and-bound algorithm

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Vibration energy harvesting using piezoelectric transducer and non-controlled rectifiers circuits

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Extrinsic compression of popliteal artery in asymptomatic athlete and non-athlete individuals - A comparative study using duplex scan (color duplex sonography)

Aim. Extrinsic compression of the popliteal artery and absence of surrounding anatomical abnormalities characterize the functional popliteal artery entrapment syndrome (PAES). The diagnosis is confirmed to individuals who have typical symptoms of popliteal entrapment and occlusion or important stenosis of the popliteal artery with color duplex sonography (CDS), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or arteriography during active plantar flexion-extension maneuvers. However, variable result findings in normal asymptomatic subjects have raised doubts as to the validity of these tests. The purpose of this study was to compare the frequency of popliteal artery compression in 2 groups of asymptomatic subjects, athletes and non-athletes.Methods. Forty-two individuals were studied. Twenty-one subjects were indoor soccer players, and 21 were sedentary individuals. Physical activity was evaluated through questionnaires, anthropometric measurements, and cardiopulmonary exercise test. Evaluation of popliteal artery compression was performed in lower limbs with CDS, ankle-brachial index (ABI) measurements and continuous wave Doppler of the posterior tibial artery.Results. The athletes studied fulfilled the criteria of high level of physical activity whereas sedentary subjects met the criteria of low level of activity. Popliteal artery compression was observed with CDS in 6 (14.2%) studied subjects; 2 of whom (4.7%) were athletes and 4 (9.5%) were non-athletes. This difference was not statistically significant (p=0.21). Doppler of the tibial arteries and ABI measurements gave good specificity and sensibility in the identification of popliteal artery compression.Conclusion. The frequency of popliteal artery compression during maneuvers in normal subjects was 14.2% irrespective of whether or not they performed regular physical activities. Both Doppler and ABI showed good agreement with CDS and should be considered in screening popliteal arteries in individuals suspected of PAES.

Identification of Staphylococcus saprophyticus isolated from patients with urinary tract infection using a simple set of biochemical tests correlating with 16S-23S interspace region molecular weight patterns

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Active surveillance of canine visceral leishmaniasis and american trypanossomiasis in rural dogs from non endemic area

A leishmaniose visceral canina (LVC) e a tripanossomíase americana são importantes zoonoses para a saúde pública que encontram no cão o principal reservatório doméstico para o homem. O trabalho procurou estimar a prevalência de anticorpos circulantes anti-Trypanosoma cruzi e anti-Leishmania spp., em amostras de cães provenientes da zona rural do município de Botucatu, SP. Durante a campanha de vacinação antirrábica canina da zona rural do município, foram coletadas 689 amostras de soro e processadas pela técnica de imunofluorescência indireta. Os testes sorológicos revelaram a ausência de anticorpos anti-Leishmania spp. e, na pesquisa dos anticorpos anti-T. cruzi, foram detectados 3 (0,4%) cães.

Biomechanical and histologic evaluation of non-washed resorbable blasting media and alumina-blasted/acid-etched surfaces

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)