Risk assessment of E-Commerce projects using evidential reasoning

The purpose of this study is to develop a decision making system to evaluate the risks in E-Commerce (EC) projects. Competitive software businesses have the critical task of assessing the risk in the software system development life cycle. This can be conducted on the basis of conventional probabilities, but limited appropriate information is available and so a complete set of probabilities is not available. In such problems, where the analysis is highly subjective and related to vague, incomplete, uncertain or inexact information, the Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory of evidence offers a potential advantage. We use a direct way of reasoning in a single step (i.e., extended DS theory) to develop a decision making system to evaluate the risk in EC projects. This consists of five stages 1) establishing knowledge base and setting rule strengths, 2) collecting evidence and data, 3) determining evidence and rule strength to a mass distribution for each rule; i.e., the first half of a single step reasoning process, 4) combining prior mass and different rules; i.e., the second half of the single step reasoning process, 5) finally, evaluating the belief interval for the best support decision of EC project. We test the system by using potential risk factors associated with EC development and the results indicate that the system is promising way of assisting an EC project manager in identifying potential risk factors and the corresponding project risks.

Assessment of Self-Compacting Concrete Immersed in Acidic Solutions

Ettringite and thaumasite can be found among the deterioration products of cementitious materials exposed to sulfate and hydrochloric attack. The results of a test program to investigate the acid resistance of self-compacting concrete (SCC) and conventional concrete (CC), immersed up to 18 weeks at 20°C in sulfuric and hydrochloric acid solutions, are described. The SCC was prepared with 47% carboniferous limestone powder, as a replacement for cement, and an ordinary portland cement. The CC was prepared with portland cement only. The water-binder ratios of the SCC and CC were 0.36 and 0.46, respectively. The parameter investigated was the time, in weeks, taken to cause 10% mass loss of fully immersed concrete specimens in a 1% solution of sulfuric acid and the same amount of loss in a 1% solution of hydrochloric acid. The investigation indicated that the SCC performed better than the CC in sulfuric solution but was slightly more vulnerable to hydrochloric acid attack compared to CC. The mode of attack between the two solutions was different.

Multi-Study Assessment of Vaginal Cytokines and Microflora in the Safety Evaluation of Intravaginal Rings in Pig-Tailed Macaques

BACKGROUND: HIV microbicide trials have emphasized the need to evaluate the safety of topical microbicides and delivery platforms in an animal model prior to conducting clinical efficacy trials. An ideal delivery device should provide sustainable and sufficient concentrations of effective products to prevent HIV transmission while not increasing transmission risk by either local mucosal inflammation and/or disruption of the normal vaginal microflora.

METHODS: Safety analyses of macaque-sized elastomeric silicone and polyurethane intravaginal rings (IVRs) loaded with candidate antiretroviral (ARV) drugs were tested in four studies ranging in duration from 49 to 73 days with retention of the IVR being 28 days in each study. Macaques were assigned to 3 groups; blank IVR, ARV-loaded IVR, and naïve. In sequential studies, the same macaques were used but rotated into different groups. Mucosal and systemic levels of cytokines were measured from vaginal fluids and plasma, respectively, using multiplex technology. Changes in vaginal microflora were also monitored. Statistical analysis (Mann-Whitney test) was used to compare data between two groups of unpaired samples (with and without IVR, and IVR with and without ARV) for the groups collectively, and also for individual macaques.

RESULTS: There were few statistically significant differences in mucosal and systemic cytokine levels measured longitudinally when the ring was present or absent, with or without ARVs. Of the 8 proinflammatory cytokines assayed a significant increase (p = 0.015) was only observed for IL8 in plasma with the blank and ARV loaded IVR (median of 9.2 vs. 5.7 pg/ml in the absence of IVR). There were no significant differences in the prevalence of H2O2-producing lactobacilli or viridans streptococci, or other microorganisms indicative of healthy vaginal microflora. However, there was an increase in the number of anaerobic gram negative rods in the presence of the IVR (p= < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS: IVRs with or without ARVs neither significantly induce the majority of potentially harmful proinflammatory cytokines locally or systemically, nor alter the lactobacillus or G. vaginalis levels. The increase in anaerobic gram negative rods alone suggests minimal disruption of normal vaginal microflora. The use of IVRs as a long-term sustained delivery device for ARVs is promising and preclinical studies to demonstrate the prevention of transmission in the HIV/SHIV nonhuman primate model should continue.

Response shift in the assessment of quality of life among people attending cardiac rehabilitation

Objectives: To examine whether any response shift in quality of life assessment over the course of a cardiac rehabilitation programme could be explained by changes in individuals’ internal standards (recalibration), values (reprioritization) and/or conceptualization of quality of life and the extent to which any response shift could be explained by health locus of control, optimism and coping strategy. Design: Longitudinal survey design. Methods: The SEIQoL-DW was administered at the beginning and end of a cardiac rehabilitation programme. At the end of the programme, the SEIQoL-DW then-test was also administered to measure response shift. A total of 57 participants completed these measures and other measures to assess health locus of control, optimism and coping. Results: Response shift effects were observed in this population mainly due to recalibration. When response shift was incorporated into the analysis of QoL a larger treatment effect was observed. Active coping as a mechanism in the response shift model was found to have a significant positive correlation with response shift. Conclusion: This study showed that response shift occurs during cardiac rehabilitation. The occurrence of response shift in QoL ratings over time for this population could have implications for the estimation of the effectiveness of the intervention.

Imperfect assessment and limited information preclude optimal strategies in male-male fights in the orb-weaving spider Metellina mengei

Agonistic behaviour between male orb-web spiders Metellina mengei competing for access to female webs was examined in field experiments to test the major predictions of game theory. Winners of fights were significantly larger than losers, particularly with respect to the length of the first pair of legs, which are sexually dimorphic in this species and used extensively in agonistic encounters. The size of the winning male had no influence on contest intensity or duration, and neither did relative size. However, fight intensity and duration were both positively correlated with the size of the losing male. Resident males won significantly more contests than intruders. Winning intruders were significantly larger than winning residents and it was these winning intruders that tended to produce the longer fights. Female weight and hence reproductive value had a marked influence on fight intensity and duration of fights won by the intruder but not those won by the resident. This indicates that only the resident obtains information about the female. These data are discussed with reference to the discrepancy with theory and a failure of some contestants to obtain information on resource value and relative contestant size necessary to optimize fight strategy.

Complement Component 3: an assessment of association with AMD and analysis of gene-gene and gene-environment interactions in a Northern Irish cohort

Purpose: A non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphism ( SNP) in complement component 3 has been shown to increase the risk of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). We assess its effect on AMD risk in a Northern Irish sample, test for gene-gene and gene-environment interaction, and review a risk prediction model.

Validation of the CDC Biofilm Reactor as a Dynamic Model for Assessment of Encrustation Formation on Urological Device Materials

Contemporary medical science is reliant upon the rational selection and utilization of devices, and therefore, an increasing need has developed for in vitro systems aimed at replicating the conditions to which urological devices will be subjected to during their use in vivo. We report the development and validation of a novel continuous flow encrustation model based on the commercially available CDC biofilm reactor. Proteus mirabilis-induced encrustation formation on test biomaterial sections under varying experimental parameters was analyzed by X-ray diffraction, infrared- and Raman spectroscopy and by scanning electron microscopy. The model system produced encrusted deposits similar to those observed in archived clinical samples. Results obtained for the system are highly reproducible with encrustation being rapidly deposited on test biomaterial sections. This model will have utility in the rapid screening of encrustation behavior of biomaterials for use in urological applications. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals. Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part B: Appl Biomater 93B: 128-140, 2010

In-situ strength assessment of concrete - The European Concrete Frame Building Project (Reprinted from Non-Destructive Testing Civil Engineering, April, pg 583-592, 2000)

A full-scale seven-storey in-situ advanced reinforced concrete building frame was constructed in the Building Research Establishment's Cardington laboratory encompassing a range of different concrete mixes and construction techniques. This provided an opportunity to use in-situ non-destructive test methods, namely Lok and CAPO tests, on a systematic basis during the construction of the building. They were used in conjunction with both standard and temperature-matched cube specimens to assess their practicality and their individual capabilities under field conditions. Results have been analysed and presented to enable comparisons of the performance of the individual test methods employed.

Assessment of sample quality in soft clay using shear wave velocity and suction measurements

The characterisation of soils for civil engineering purposes depends on removing sufficiently high-quality samples from the ground. Accurate evaluation of sample quality is therefore important if reliable design parameters are to be determined. This paper describes the use of unconfined shear wave velocity (V _s) and suction (u _r) measurements to assess sample quality rapidly in soft clay. Samples of varying quality from three well-characterised soft clay sites are initially assessed using conventional techniques, and their results compared with V _s and u _r measurements performed on the same samples. It is observed that the quality of samples indicated by these measurements is very similar to those inferred from traditional disturbance measures, with V _s being the more reliable indicator. A tentative empirically derived criterion, based on samples tested in this project, is proposed to quantify sample disturbance combining both V _s and u _r measurements. Further work using this criterion on different materials is important so as to test its usefulness.

An Experimental Assessment of the Effects of Stator Vane Tip Clearance and Back Swept Blading on an Automotive Variable Geometry Turbocharger

Off-design performance is of key importance now in the design of automotive turbocharger turbines. Due to automotive drive cycles, a turbine that can extract more energy at high pressure ratios and lower rotational speeds is desirable. Typically a radial turbine provides peak efficiency at U/C values of 0.7, but at high pressure ratios and low rotational speeds, the U/C value will be low and the rotor will experience high values of positive incidence at the inlet. The positive incidence causes high blade loading resulting in additional tip leakage flow in the rotor as well as flow separation on the suction surface of the blade. An experimental assessment has been performed on a scaled automotive VGS (variable geometry system). Three different stator vane positions have been analyzed: minimum, 25%, and maximum flow position. The first tests were to establish whether positioning the endwall clearance on the hub or shroud side of the stator vanes produced a different impact on turbine efficiency. Following this, a back swept rotor was tested to establish the potential gains to be achieved during off-design operation. A single passage CFD model of the test rig was developed and used to provide information on the flow features affecting performance in both the stator vanes and turbine. It was seen that off-design performance was improved by implementing clearance on the hub side of the stator vanes rather than on the shroud side. Through CFD analysis and tests, it was seen that two leakage vortices form, one at the leading edge and one after the spindle of the stator vane. The vortices affect the flow angle at the inlet to the rotor, in the hub region. The flow angle is shifted to more negative values of incidence, which is beneficial at the off-design conditions but detrimental at the design point. The back swept rotor was tested with the hub side stator vane clearance configuration. The efficiency and MFR were increased at the minimum and 25% stator vane position. At the design point, the efficiency and MFR were decreased. The CFD investigation showed that the incidence angle was improved at the off-design conditions for the back swept rotor. This reduction in the positive incidence angle, along with the improvement caused by the stator vane tip leakage flow, reduced flow separation on the suction surface of the rotor. At the design point, both the tip leakage flow of the stator vanes and the back swept blade angle caused flow separation on the pressure surface of the rotor. This resulted in additional blockage at the throat of the rotor reducing MFR and efficiency.

Modelling 3D camera movement for vibration characterisation and multiple object identification with application to lighting assessment

Utilising cameras as a means to survey the surrounding environment is becoming increasingly popular in a number of different research areas and applications. Central to using camera sensors as input to a vision system, is the need to be able to manipulate and process the information captured in these images. One such application, is the use of cameras to monitor the quality of airport landing lighting at aerodromes where a camera is placed inside an aircraft and used to record images of the lighting pattern during the landing phase of a flight. The images are processed to determine a performance metric. This requires the development of custom software for the localisation and identification of luminaires within the image data. However, because of the necessity to keep airport operations functioning as efficiently as possible, it is difficult to collect enough image data to develop, test and validate any developed software. In this paper, we present a technique to model a virtual landing lighting pattern. A mathematical model is postulated which represents the glide path of the aircraft including random deviations from the expected path. A morphological method has been developed to localise and track the luminaires under different operating conditions. © 2011 IEEE.

Educational assessment policy and practice - a matter of ethics

Long-standing concerns within the field of educational assessment consider the impact of assessment policy and practice as matters of equity, inequality and social justice.Yet educational assessment policy and practice continues to have powerful social consequences for key users such as children and young people.This paper re-positions these consequences as a matter of ethics.It uses the work of Messick to frame how ethical matters extend beyond test instruments into the realm of uses and impact. A case study of the 11+ school transfer system in Northern Ireland is presented to illustrate ethical dilemmas emerging as a consequence of actions and decisions of using assessment systems for particular purposes.In looking forward to how we might attend to ethical matters in assessment policy and practice, a consideration of a children’s rights approach is outlined that may provide a moral and legal framework for action.

Robust food supply supply chains:An integrated framework for vulnerability assessment and disturbance management

The operation of supply chains (SCs) has for many years been focused on efficiency, leanness and responsiveness. This has resulted in reduced slack in operations, compressed cycle times, increased productivity and minimised inventory levels along the SC. Combined with tight tolerance settings for the realisation of logistics and production processes, this has led to SC performances that are frequently not robust. SCs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to disturbances, which can decrease the competitive power of the entire chain in the market. Moreover, in the case of food SCs non-robust performances may ultimately result in empty shelves in grocery stores and supermarkets.
The overall objective of this research is to contribute to Supply Chain Management (SCM) theory by developing a structured approach to assess SC vulnerability, so that robust performances of food SCs can be assured. We also aim to help companies in the food industry to evaluate their current state of vulnerability, and to improve their performance robustness through a better understanding of vulnerability issues. The following research questions (RQs) stem from these objectives:
RQ1: What are the main research challenges related to (food) SC robustness?
RQ2: What are the main elements that have to be considered in the design of robust SCs and what are the relationships between these elements?
RQ3: What is the relationship between the contextual factors of food SCs and the use of disturbance management principles?
RQ4: How to systematically assess the impact of disturbances in (food) SC processes on the robustness of (food) SC performances?
To answer these RQs we used different methodologies, both qualitative and quantitative. For each question, we conducted a literature survey to identify gaps in existing research and define the state of the art of knowledge on the related topics. For the second and third RQ, we conducted both exploration and testing on selected case studies. Finally, to obtain more detailed answers to the fourth question, we used simulation modelling and scenario analysis for vulnerability assessment.
Main findings are summarised as follows.
Based on an extensive literature review, we answered RQ1. The main research challenges were related to the need to define SC robustness more precisely, to identify and classify disturbances and their causes in the context of the specific characteristics of SCs and to make a systematic overview of (re)design strategies that may improve SC robustness. Also, we found that it is useful to be able to discriminate between varying degrees of SC vulnerability and to find a measure that quantifies the extent to which a company or SC shows robust performances when exposed to disturbances.
To address RQ2, we define SC robustness as the degree to which a SC shows an acceptable performance in (each of) its Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) during and after an unexpected event that caused a disturbance in one or more logistics processes. Based on the SCM literature we identified the main elements needed to achieve robust performances and structured them together to form a conceptual framework for the design of robust SCs. We then explained the logic of the framework and elaborate on each of its main elements: the SC scenario, SC disturbances, SC performance, sources of food SC vulnerability, and redesign principles and strategies.
Based on three case studies, we answered RQ3. Our major findings show that the contextual factors have a consistent relationship to Disturbance Management Principles (DMPs). The product and SC environment characteristics are contextual factors that are hard to change and these characteristics initiate the use of specific DMPs as well as constrain the use of potential response actions. The process and the SC network characteristics are contextual factors that are easier to change, and they are affected by the use of the DMPs. We also found a notable relationship between the type of DMP likely to be used and the particular combination of contextual factors present in the observed SC.
To address RQ4, we presented a new method for vulnerability assessments, the VULA method. The VULA method helps to identify how much a company is underperforming on a specific Key Performance Indicator (KPI) in the case of a disturbance, how often this would happen and how long it would last. It ultimately informs the decision maker about whether process redesign is needed and what kind of redesign strategies should be used in order to increase the SC’s robustness. The VULA method is demonstrated in the context of a meat SC using discrete-event simulation. The case findings show that performance robustness can be assessed for any KPI using the VULA method.
To sum-up the project, all findings were incorporated within an integrated framework for designing robust SCs. The integrated framework consists of the following steps: 1) Description of the SC scenario and identification of its specific contextual factors; 2) Identification of disturbances that may affect KPIs; 3) Definition of the relevant KPIs and identification of the main disturbances through assessment of the SC performance robustness (i.e. application of the VULA method); 4) Identification of the sources of vulnerability that may (strongly) affect the robustness of performances and eventually increase the vulnerability of the SC; 5) Identification of appropriate preventive or disturbance impact reductive redesign strategies; 6) Alteration of SC scenario elements as required by the selected redesign strategies and repeat VULA method for KPIs, as defined in Step 3.
Contributions of this research are listed as follows. First, we have identified emerging research areas - SC robustness, and its counterpart, vulnerability. Second, we have developed a definition of SC robustness, operationalized it, and identified and structured the relevant elements for the design of robust SCs in the form of a research framework. With this research framework, we contribute to a better understanding of the concepts of vulnerability and robustness and related issues in food SCs. Third, we identified the relationship between contextual factors of food SCs and specific DMPs used to maintain robust SC performances: characteristics of the product and the SC environment influence the selection and use of DMPs; processes and SC networks are influenced by DMPs. Fourth, we developed specific metrics for vulnerability assessments, which serve as a basis of a VULA method. The VULA method investigates different measures of the variability of both the duration of impacts from disturbances and the fluctuations in their magnitude.
With this project, we also hope to have delivered practical insights into food SC vulnerability. First, the integrated framework for the design of robust SCs can be used to guide food companies in successful disturbance management. Second, empirical findings from case studies lead to the identification of changeable characteristics of SCs that can serve as a basis for assessing where to focus efforts to manage disturbances. Third, the VULA method can help top management to get more reliable information about the “health” of the company.
The two most important research opportunities are: First, there is a need to extend and validate our findings related to the research framework and contextual factors through further case studies related to other types of (food) products and other types of SCs. Second, there is a need to further develop and test the VULA method, e.g.: to use other indicators and statistical measures for disturbance detection and SC improvement; to define the most appropriate KPI to represent the robustness of a complete SC. We hope this thesis invites other researchers to pick up these challenges and help us further improve the robustness of (food) SCs.

Assessment of rolling resistance models in discrete element simulations

Particulate systems are of interest in many disciplines. They are often investigated using the discrete element method because of its capability to investigate particulate systems at the individual particle scale. To model the interaction between two particles and between a particle and a boundary, conventional discrete element models use springs and dampers in both the normal and tangential directions. The significance of particle rotation has been highlighted in both numerical studies and physical experiments. Several researchers have attempted to incorporate a rotational torque to account for the rolling resistance or rolling friction by developing different models. This paper presents a review of the commonly used models for rolling resistance and proposes a more general model. These models are classified into four categories according to their key characteristics. The robustness of these models in reproducing rolling resistance effects arising from different physical situations was assessed by using several benchmarking test cases. The proposed model can be seen to be more general and suitable for modelling problems involving both dynamic and pseudo-static regimes. An example simulation of the formation of a 2D sandpile is also shown. For simplicity, all formulations and examples are presented in 2D form, though the general conclusions are also applicable to 3D systems.

Comparison of two fast strategies, SITA fast and TOP, for the assessment of visual fields in glaucoma patients

Purpose: To compare two fast threshold strategies of visual field assessment; SITA Fast (HSF) and Tendency Orientated Perimetry (TOP), in detecting visual field loss in patients with glaucoma. Methods: Seventy-six glaucoma, ocular hypertensive and normal patients had HSF and TOP performed in random order. Quantitative comparisons for the global visual field indices - mean deviation and defect (MD) for HSF and TOP, and pattern standard deviation (PSD) for HSF and loss variance (LV) for TOP - were made using correlation coefficients. Humphrey global parameters were converted to Octopus equivalents, and method comparison analysis was used to determine agreement between the two strategies. Test duration times were compared using t-test. Sensitivity and specificity for these two algorithms were determined according to predetermined criteria. Results: High correlation coefficient values were obtained for MD measurements between HSF and TOP (r=-0.89, P