Scenari finanziari e portafogli ottimi: modelli di previsione e strategie per l'asset allocation tattica

Le scelte di asset allocation costituiscono un problema ricorrente per ogni investitore. Quest���ultimo �� continuamente impegnato a combinare diverse asset class per giungere ad un investimento coerente con le proprie preferenze. L���esigenza di supportare gli asset manager nello svolgimento delle proprie mansioni ha alimentato nel tempo una vasta letteratura che ha proposto numerose strategie e modelli di portfolio construction. Questa tesi tenta di fornire una rassegna di alcuni modelli innovativi di previsione e di alcune strategie nell���ambito dell���asset allocation tattica, per poi valutarne i risvolti pratici. In primis verificheremo la sussistenza di eventuali relazioni tra la dinamica di alcune variabili macroeconomiche ed i mercati finanziari. Lo scopo �� quello di individuare un modello econometrico capace di orientare le strategie dei gestori nella costruzione dei propri portafogli di investimento. L���analisi prende in considerazione il mercato americano, durante un periodo caratterizzato da rapide trasformazioni economiche e da un���elevata volatilit�� dei prezzi azionari. In secondo luogo verr�� esaminata la validit�� delle strategie di trading momentum e contrarian nei mercati futures, in particolare quelli dell���Eurozona, che ben si prestano all���implementazione delle stesse, grazie all���assenza di vincoli sulle operazioni di shorting ed ai ridotti costi di transazione. Dall���indagine emerge che entrambe le anomalie si presentano con carattere di stabilit��. I rendimenti anomali permangono anche qualora vengano utilizzati i tradizionali modelli di asset pricing, quali il CAPM, il modello di Fama e French e quello di Carhart. Infine, utilizzando l���approccio EGARCH-M, verranno formulate previsioni sulla volatilit�� dei rendimenti dei titoli appartenenti al Dow Jones. Quest���ultime saranno poi utilizzate come input per determinare le views da inserire nel modello di Black e Litterman. I risultati ottenuti, evidenziano, per diversi valori dello scalare tau, extra rendimenti medi del new combined vector superiori al vettore degli extra rendimenti di equilibrio di mercato, seppur con livelli pi�� elevati di rischio.

An Integrated Approach to Strategic Asset Management

This paper focuses on identifying and analysing the elements of Strategic Management for infrastructure and engineering assets. These elements are contended to involve an understanding of governance, corporate policy, corporate objectives, corporate strategy and interagency collaboration and will in turn, allow the ability determine a broader and more comprehensive framework for engineering asset management, ie a ���staged approach��� to understanding how assets are managed within organisations. While the assets themselves have often been the sole concern for good management practices, other social and contextual elements have come into the mix in order to promote strategic asset management. The development of an integrated approach to asset management is at the base of the research question. What are the considerations and implications for adopting and implementing an integrated strategic asset management (ISAM) framework? While operational matters have been given prominence, a subset of corporate governance, Asset Governance, details the policies and processes needed to acquire, utilise, maintain and account for an organisation���s assets. Asset governance stems from the organisation���s overarching corporate governance principles; as a result it defines the management context in which engineering asset management is implemented. This aspect will be examined to determine the appropriate relationship between organisational strategic management and strategic asset management to further the theoretical engagement with the maturity of strategy,policy and governance for infrastructure and engineered assets. Asset governance stems from the organisation���s overarching corporate governance principles; as a result it defines the management context in which engineering asset management is implemented. The research proceeds by a document analysis of corporate reports and policy recommendations in terms of infrastructure and engineered assets. The paper concludes that incorporating an integrated asset management framework can promote a more robust conceptualisation of public assets and how they combine to provide a comprehensive system of service outcomes.

Farm-level Capital: Capital positions, structures, the dynamics of farm-level investments, capital accumulation and leverage positions. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 7, October 2011

This Factor Markets Working Paper describes and highlights the key issues of farm capital structures, the dynamics of investments and accumulation of farm capital, and the financial leverage and borrowing rates on farms in selected European countries. Data collected from the Farm Account Data Network (FADN) suggest that the European farming sector uses quite different farm business strategies, capabilities to generate capital revenues, and segmented agricultural loan market regimes. Such diverse business strategies have substantial, and perhaps more substantial than expected, implications for the financial leverage and performance of farms. Different countries adopt different approaches to evaluating agricultural assets, or the agricultural asset markets simply differ substantially depending on the country in question. This has implications for most of the financial indicators. In those countries that have seen rapidly increasing asset prices at the margin, which were revised accordingly in the accounting systems for the whole stock of assets, firm values increased significantly, even though the firms had been disinvesting. If there is an asset price bubble and it bursts, there may be serious knock-on effects for some countries.

The Impact of the ECB���s Asset Purchase Programmes on Sovereign Bond Spreads in the Euro Area. Bruges European Economic Research Papers 35/2015

This paper estimates the immediate impact of the European Central Bank���s asset purchase programmes on sovereign bond spreads in the euro area between 2008 and 2015 using a country-by-country GARCH model. The baseline estimates are rigorously diagnosed for misspecification and subjected to a wide range of sensitivity tests. Among others, changes in the dependent variable, the independent variables and the number of (G)ARCH terms are tested. Moreover, the model is applied to subsamples and dynamic conditional correlations are analyzed to estimate the effects of the asset purchases on the contagion of spread movements. Generally, it is found that the asset purchase programmes triggered an reduction of sovereign bond spreads. More specifically, the Securities Markets Programme (SMP) had the most significant immediate effects on sovereign bond spreads across the euro area. The announcements related to the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme also yielded substantial spread compression in the periphery. In contrast to that, the most recent Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) announced in January 2015 and implemented since March 2015 had no significant immediate effects on sovereign bond spreads, except for Irish spreads. Hence, immediate effects seem to be dependent upon the size of the programme, the extent to which it targets distressed sovereigns and the way in which it is communicated.

Asset prices in economic analysis /

Includes bibliography.

Strategic interventions in intellectual asset flows

The rise of the knowledge economy brings to the foreground questions of how firms might best capture the value of their intellectual assets. In this article I introduce the notion of strategic interventions in intellectual asset flows designed to influence the level and composition of intellectual asset scarcity, with implications for firm performance. I also present propositions that explain and predict how contingencies at differing levels of analysis influence the choice of strategic intervention.

The forgotten CGT events: Are asset revaluation reserve distributions by trustees of discretionary trusts capital gains?

It is the present practice that asset revaluation reserve distributions by trustees of discretionary trusts are not taxed in Australia. Are such distributions not meant to be taxed, or have relevant sections in the Income Tax Assessment Acts been overlooked? This article will review how trustees of discretionary trusts perform asset revaluation reserve distributions. It then challenges the current accepted view that they can be distributed tax-free to discretionary beneficiaries by analysing relevant CGT events, which the authors regard as forgotten events. It will be submitted that a discretionary beneficiary in receipt of an asset revaluation reserve distribution may have a capital gain which is required to be included in its assessable income. This liability for tax is regardless of the government's recent introduction of s 109XA to address the practice of asset revaluation reserve distributions bypassing the operation of Div 7A of the ITAA 1936 with such distributions.

The wealth effect of housing on aggregate consumption

This study Measures the effect of changes in net housing and financial wealth oil household consumption using Australian data over the period Q2:1988-Q1:2003. It is found a permanent one dollar rise in housing wealth leads to a six cent increase in consumption, three times the effect of financial wealth. The result speaks strongly against the notion of assets fungibility.. and Suggests that a sharp movement in house prices is potentially more disruptive than a corresponding movement ill financial asset prices.

Increasing competitiveness of third party logistics with RFID

Competition in the 3PL market continues to intensify as providers compete to win and retain clients. 3PL providers are required to reduce costs while offering tailored innovative logistical solutions in order to remain competitive. 3PL providers can reduce costs through the consolidation of assets and introduction of cross-docking activities. Innovative logistical services can be tailored to each client via the introduction of real-time data updates. This paper highlights that RFID enabled RTE can assist in improvements of both these areas through increased network visibility. A framework is presented where the 3PL provider focuses on asset reduction, asset utilisation, real-time data employment and RTE cycle time reduction in order to enhance competitiveness. �� 2011 IEEE.

Negotiating regional futures:the successes and failures of the West Midlands Regional Development Agency Network

The introduction of Regional Development Agencies (RDAs) in the English regions in 1999 presented a new set of collaborative challenges to existing local institutions. The key objectives of the new policy impetus emphasise increased joined-up thinking and holistic regional governance. Partners were enjoined to promote cross-sector collaboration and present a coherent regional voice. This study aims to evaluate the impact of an RDA on the partnership infrastructure of the West Midlands. The RDA network incorporates a wide spectrum of interest and organisations with diverse collaborative histories, competencies and capacities. The study has followed partners through the process over an eighteen-month period and has sought to explore the complexities and tensions of partnership working 'on the ground'. A strong qualitative methodology has been employed in generating 'thick descriptions' of the policy domain. The research has probed beyond the 'rhetoric' of partnerships and explores the sensitivities of the collaboration process. A number of theoretical frameworks have been employed, including policy network theory; partnership and collaboration theory; organisational learning; and trust and social capital. The structural components of the West Midlands RDA network are explored, including the structural configuration of the network and stocks of human and social capital assets. These combine to form the asset base of the network. Three sets of network behaviours are then explored, namely, strategy, the management of perceptions, and learning. The thesis explores how the combination of assets and behaviours affect, and in turn are affected by, each other. The findings contribute to the growing body of knowledge and understanding surrounding policy networks and collaborative governance.

Essays on the selection of securities: Decision on acquisition and issuance perspectives and decision rules

This dissertation is a discourse on the capital market and its interactive framework of acquisition and issuance of financial assets that drive the economy from both sides���investors/lenders and issuers/users of capital assets. My work consists of four essays in financial economics that offer a spectrum of revisions to this significant area of study. The first essay is a delineation of the capital market over the past half a century and major developments on capital markets on issues that pertain to the investor's opportunity set and the corporation's capital-raising availability set. This chapter should have merits on two counts: (i) a comprehensive account of capital markets and return-generating assets and (ii) a backdrop against which I present my findings in Chapters 2 through 4. ^ In Chapter 2, I rework on the Markowitz-Roy-Tobin structure of the efficient frontier and of the Separation Theorem. Starting off with a 2-asset portfolio and extending the paradigm to an n-asset portfolio, I bring out the optimal choice of assets for an investor under constrained utility maximization. In this chapter, I analyze the selection and revision-theoretic construct and bring out optimum choices. The effect of a change in perceived risk or return in the mind of an investor is ascertained on the portfolio composition. ^ Chapter 3 takes a look into corporations that issue market securities. The question of how a corporation decides what kinds of securities it should issue in the marketplace to raise funds brings out the classic value invariance proposition of Modigliani and Miller and fills the gap that existed in the literature for almost half a century. I question the general validity in the classic results of Modigliani and Miller and modify the existing literature on the celebrated value invariance proposition. ^ Chapter 4 takes the Modigliani-Miller regime to its correct prescription in the presence of corporate and personal taxes. I show that Modigliani-Miller's age-old proposition needs corrections and extensions, which I derive. ^ My dissertation overall brings all of these corrections and extensions to the existing literature as my findings, showing that capital markets are in an ever-changing state of necessary revision. ^

Essays on the impact of stakeholders' sentiment on the financial decision making process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors��� sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, ��� Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices���, a new technical trading strategy was developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results indicate that sample firms trade within a range and give signals as to when to buy or sell. In the second essay, ���Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm���, examined the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Final analysis reported that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. Changes in the cost of capital, weighted cost of average capital were found due to managerial sentiment. In the last essay, ���Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection���, analyzed how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the portfolio performance. Results suggested that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicated the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicator for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

Essays on the Impact of Stakeholders' Sentiment on the Financial Decision Making Process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors' sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices, a new technical trading strategy is developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results show that sample firms trade within a range and show signals as to when to buy or sell. The second essay, Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm, examines the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Findings show that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. The last essay, Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection, analyzes how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the performance measures. Results suggest that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicate the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicators for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

Essays on risk aversion, diversification and non -participation

My dissertation consists of three essays. The central theme of these essays is the psychological factors and biases that affect the portfolio allocation decision. The first essay entitled, ���Are women more risk-averse than men?��� examines the gender difference in risk aversion as revealed by actual investment choices. Using a sample that controls for biases in the level of education and finance knowledge, there is evidence that when individuals have the same level of education, irrespective of their knowledge of finance, women are no more risk-averse than their male counterparts. However, the gender-risk aversion relation is also a function of age, income, wealth, marital status, race/ethnicity and the number of children in the household. The second essay entitled, ���Can diversification be learned ?��� investigates if investors who have superior investment knowledge are more likely to actively seek diversification benefits and are less prone to allocation biases. Results of cross-sectional analyses suggest that knowledge of finance increases the likelihood that an investor will efficiently allocate his direct investments across the major asset classes; invest in foreign assets; and hold a diversified equity portfolio. However, there is no evidence that investors who are more financially sophisticated make superior allocation decisions in their retirement savings. The final essay entitled, ���The demographics of non-participation ���, examines the factors that affect the decision not to hold stocks. The results of probit regression models indicate that when individuals are highly educated, the decision to not participate in the stock market is less related to demographic factors. In particular, when individuals have attained at least a college degree and have advanced knowledge of finance, they are significantly more likely to invest in equities either directly or indirectly through mutual funds or their retirement savings. There is also evidence that the decision not to hold stocks is motivated by short-term market expectations and the most recent investment experience. The findings of these essays should increase the body of research that seeks to reconcile what investors actually do (positive theory) with what traditional theories of finance predict that investors should do (normative theory).

Liquidity, governance and adverse selection in asset pricing

A plethora of recent literature on asset pricing provides plenty of empirical evidence on the importance of liquidity, governance and adverse selection of equity on pricing of assets together with more traditional factors such as market beta and the Fama-French factors. However, literature has usually stressed that these factors are priced individually. In this dissertation we argue that these factors may be related to each other, hence not only individual but also joint tests of their significance is called for. ^ In the three related essays, we examine the liquidity premium in the context of the finer three-digit SIC industry classification, joint importance of liquidity and governance factors as well as governance and adverse selection. Recent studies by Core, Guay and Rusticus (2006) and Ben-Rephael, Kadan and Wohl (2010) find that governance and liquidity premiums are dwindling in the last few years. One reason could be that liquidity is very unevenly distributed across industries. This could affect the interpretation of prior liquidity studies. Thus, in the first chapter we analyze the relation of industry clustering and liquidity risk following a finer industry classification suggested by Johnson, Moorman and Sorescu (2009). In the second chapter, we examine the dwindling influence of the governance factor if taken simultaneously with liquidity. We argue that this happens since governance characteristics are potentially a proxy for information asymmetry that may be better captured by market liquidity of a company's shares. Hence, we jointly examine both the factors, namely, governance and liquidity - in a series of standard asset pricing tests. Our results reconfirm the importance of governance and liquidity in explaining stock returns thus independently corroborating the findings of Amihud (2002) and Gompers, Ishii and Metrick (2003). Moreover, governance is not subsumed by liquidity. Lastly, we analyze the relation of governance and adverse selection, and again corroborate previous findings of a priced governance factor. Furthermore, we ascertain the importance of microstructure measures in asset pricing by employing Huang and Stoll's (1997) method to extract an adverse selection variable and finding evidence for its explanatory power in four-factor regressions.^