Information and communication technologies for agricultural development in Latin America: trends, barriers and policies

Includes bibliography

Integration in Latin America - Trends and Challenges

Regional trade agreements have had a significant presence in the design of international and productive policies in Latin American and Caribbean countries since the early 1950s. Fifty years later, the region has not reached the degree of economic inter-relation found, for instance, in Western Europe, but the concern with promoting regional integration has been a tradition in an impressive amount of speeches and declarations by policy makers in the last decades. The weakening of multilateral negotiations and the multiplicity of bilateral agreements with countries in other regions might affect regional trade both via trade diversion and through investment decisions, considering a larger time horizon. International capital movement might affect exchange rates and output growth, hence influencing trade. At the same time the need for new, broader negotiating agenda, from simply dealing with trade issues to taking into consideration topics not directly related to trade but rather to competition, labour standards, environmental issues and others increase the difficulties in designing integration strategies. Even more so if the group of countries that aim at integrating their economies present markedly different characteristics. This article – an extension of a presentation made at the German Development Institute Conference on Regional Economic Integration Beyond Europe held in Bonn in December, 2007 - discusses these and other aspects related to regional integration in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Trends in planktonic copepod diversity in reservoirs and lotic stretches in a large river basin in South America

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evolutionary trends in Iridaceae: new cytogenetic findings from the New World

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Holocene lake-level trends in the Rocky Mountains, USA

The availability of water shapes life in the western United States, and much of the water in the region originates in the Rocky Mountains. Few studies, however, have explicitly examined the history of water levels in the Rocky Mountains during the Holocene. Here, we examine the past levels of three lakes near the Continental Divide in Montana and Colorado to reconstruct Holocene moisture trends. Using transects of sediment cores and sub-surface geophysical profiles from each lake, we find that mid-Holocene shorelines in the small lakes (4–110 ha) were as much as ~10 m below the modern lake surfaces. Our results are consistent with existing evidence from other lakes and show that a wide range of settings in the region were much drier than today before 3000–2000 years ago. We also discuss evidence for millennial-scale moisture variation, including an abruptly-initiated and -terminated wet period in Colorado from 4400 to 3700 cal yr BP, and find only limited evidence for low-lake stands during the past millennium. The extent of low-water levels during the mid-Holocene, which were most severe and widespread ca. 7000–4500 cal yr BP, is consistent with the extent of insolation-induced aridity in previously published regional climate model simulations. Like the simulations, the lake data provide no evidence for enhanced zonal flow during the mid-Holocene, which has been invoked to explain enhanced mid-continent aridity at the time. The data, including widespread evidence for large changes on orbital time scales and for more limited changes during the last millennium, confirm the ability of large boundary-condition changes to push western water supplies beyond the range of recent natural variability.

Global interannual trends and amplitude modulations of the sea surface height anomaly from the TOPEX/Jason-1 altimeters

This study uses the global Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Jason-1 altimeters` time series to estimate the 13-yr trend in sea surface height anomaly. These trends are estimated at each grid point by two methods: one fits a straight line to the time series and the other is based on the difference between the average height between the two halves of the time series. In both cases the trend shows large regional variability, mostly where the intense western boundary currents turn. The authors hypothesize that the regional variability of the sea surface height trends leads to changes in the local geostrophic transport. This in turn affects the instability-related processes that generate mesoscale eddies and enhances the Rossby wave signals. This hypothesis is verified by estimates of the trend of the amplitude of the filtered sea surface height anomaly that contains the spectral bands associated with Rossby waves and mesoscale eddies. The authors found predominantly positive tendency in the amplitude of Rossby waves and eddies, which suggests that, on average, these events are becoming more energetic. In some regions, the variation in amplitude over 13 yr is comparable to the standard deviation of the data and is statistically significant according to both methods employed in this study. It is plausible that in this case, the energy is transferred from the mean currents to the waves and eddies through barotropic and baroclinic instability processes that are more pronounced in the western boundary current extension regions. If these heat storage patterns and trends are confirmed on longer time series, then it will be justified to argue that the warming trend of the last century provides the energy that amplifies both Rossby waves and mesoscale eddies.

Trends in South American weapons purchases at the beginning of the new millennium

In recent years, with some frequency it is heard that Latin America, especially South America, is witnessing the rise of an arms race. Frequent reports in the press and strong statements made by politicians in the region have fueled this fear. At the same time, scholars have also reached to this conclusion, as pointed out by Malamud and Garcia: "The famous arms race in Latin America, led by Venezuela, is no longer just talk."

Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

Tradition, Change and Variation : Past and Present Trends in Public Old-age Care

The general aim of this dissertation is to describe and analyse how public old-age care in Sweden has developed and changed during the last century. The study applies a provider perspective on how care has been planned and professionally carried out. A broader social policy perspective, studying old-age care at central/national as well as local/municipal level, is also developed. A special focus is directed at the large local variation in care and services for the elderly. The empirical base is comprised of official documents and other public sources, survey data from interviews with elderly recipients of public old-age care, and official statistics on publicly financed and controlled old-age care and services. Study I addresses the development of old-age care in Sweden during the twentieth century by studying an important occupation in this field – the supervisors and their professional roles, tasks and working conditions. Throughout, the roles of supervisors have followed the prevailing official policy on the proper way to provide care for elderly people in Sweden; from poor relief at the beginning of the 1900s, via a generous level of services in the 1960s and 1970s, to today’s restricted and economy-controlled mode of operation. Study II describes and compares two main forms of public old-age care in Sweden today, home help services and institutional care. The care-load found in home-based care was comparable to and sometimes even larger than in service-homes and other institutions, indicating that large care needs among elderly people in Sweden today can be met in their homes as well as in institutional settings. Studies III and IV analyse the local variation in public old-age care in Sweden. During the last decades there has been an overall decline in home help services. The coverage of home help for elderly people shows large differences between municipalities throughout this period, and the relative variation has increased. The local disparity seems to depend more on historical factors, e.g., previous coverage rates, than on the present municipal situation in levels of need or local economy and politics. In an introductory part the four papers are linked together by an outline of the demographic situation and the social policy model for old-age care in Sweden. Trends that have been apparent over time, e.g. professionalisation and market orientation, are traced and discussed. Conflicts between prevailing ideologies are analysed, in regards to for instance home-based and institution-based care, social and medical culture, and local and central levels of decision-making. ’Welfare municipality’, ‘path dependency’, and ‘decentralisation’ are suggested as a conceptual framework for describing the large and increasing local variations in old-age care. Finally, implications of the four studies with regard to old-age care policy and further research are discussed.

Efficient subsequence alignment of time series

Zeitreihen sind allgegenwärtig. Die Erfassung und Verarbeitung kontinuierlich gemessener Daten ist in allen Bereichen der Naturwissenschaften, Medizin und Finanzwelt vertreten. Das enorme Anwachsen aufgezeichneter Datenmengen, sei es durch automatisierte Monitoring-Systeme oder integrierte Sensoren, bedarf außerordentlich schneller Algorithmen in Theorie und Praxis. Infolgedessen beschäftigt sich diese Arbeit mit der effizienten Berechnung von Teilsequenzalignments. Komplexe Algorithmen wie z.B. Anomaliedetektion, Motivfabfrage oder die unüberwachte Extraktion von prototypischen Bausteinen in Zeitreihen machen exzessiven Gebrauch von diesen Alignments. Darin begründet sich der Bedarf nach schnellen Implementierungen. Diese Arbeit untergliedert sich in drei Ansätze, die sich dieser Herausforderung widmen. Das umfasst vier Alignierungsalgorithmen und ihre Parallelisierung auf CUDA-fähiger Hardware, einen Algorithmus zur Segmentierung von Datenströmen und eine einheitliche Behandlung von Liegruppen-wertigen Zeitreihen.rnrnDer erste Beitrag ist eine vollständige CUDA-Portierung der UCR-Suite, die weltführende Implementierung von Teilsequenzalignierung. Das umfasst ein neues Berechnungsschema zur Ermittlung lokaler Alignierungsgüten unter Verwendung z-normierten euklidischen Abstands, welches auf jeder parallelen Hardware mit Unterstützung für schnelle Fouriertransformation einsetzbar ist. Des Weiteren geben wir eine SIMT-verträgliche Umsetzung der Lower-Bound-Kaskade der UCR-Suite zur effizienten Berechnung lokaler Alignierungsgüten unter Dynamic Time Warping an. Beide CUDA-Implementierungen ermöglichen eine um ein bis zwei Größenordnungen schnellere Berechnung als etablierte Methoden.rnrnAls zweites untersuchen wir zwei Linearzeit-Approximierungen für das elastische Alignment von Teilsequenzen. Auf der einen Seite behandeln wir ein SIMT-verträgliches Relaxierungschema für Greedy DTW und seine effiziente CUDA-Parallelisierung. Auf der anderen Seite führen wir ein neues lokales Abstandsmaß ein, den Gliding Elastic Match (GEM), welches mit der gleichen asymptotischen Zeitkomplexität wie Greedy DTW berechnet werden kann, jedoch eine vollständige Relaxierung der Penalty-Matrix bietet. Weitere Verbesserungen umfassen Invarianz gegen Trends auf der Messachse und uniforme Skalierung auf der Zeitachse. Des Weiteren wird eine Erweiterung von GEM zur Multi-Shape-Segmentierung diskutiert und auf Bewegungsdaten evaluiert. Beide CUDA-Parallelisierung verzeichnen Laufzeitverbesserungen um bis zu zwei Größenordnungen.rnrnDie Behandlung von Zeitreihen beschränkt sich in der Literatur in der Regel auf reellwertige Messdaten. Der dritte Beitrag umfasst eine einheitliche Methode zur Behandlung von Liegruppen-wertigen Zeitreihen. Darauf aufbauend werden Distanzmaße auf der Rotationsgruppe SO(3) und auf der euklidischen Gruppe SE(3) behandelt. Des Weiteren werden speichereffiziente Darstellungen und gruppenkompatible Erweiterungen elastischer Maße diskutiert.

Sea level trends in the Mediterranean from tide gauges and satellite altimetry

Sea level variation is one of the parameters directly related to climate change. Monitoring sea level rise is an important scientific issue since many populated areas of the world and megacities are located in low-lying regions. At present, sea level is measured by means of two techniques: the tide gauges and the satellite radar altimetry. Tide gauges measure sea-level relatively to a ground benchmark, hence, their measurements are directly affected by vertical ground motions. Satellite radar altimetry measures sea-level relative to a geocentric reference and are not affected by vertical land motions. In this study, the linear relative sea level trends of 35 tide gauge stations distributed across the Mediterranean Sea have been computed over the period 1993-2014. In order to extract the real sea-level variation, the vertical land motion has been estimated using the observations of available GPS stations and removed from the tide gauges records. These GPS-corrected trends have then been compared with satellite altimetry measurements over the same time interval (AVISO data set). A further comparison has been performed, over the period 1993-2013, using the CCI satellite altimetry data set which has been generated using an updated modeling. The absolute sea level trends obtained from satellite altimetry and GPS-corrected tide gauge data are mostly consistent, meaning that GPS data have provided reliable corrections for most of the sites. The trend values range between +2.5 and +4 mm/yr almost everywhere in the Mediterranean area, the largest trends were found in the Northern Adriatic Sea and in the Aegean. These results are in agreement with estimates of the global mean sea level rise over the last two decades. Where GPS data were not available, information on the vertical land motion deduced from the differences between absolute and relative trends are in agreement with the results of other studies.

Trends in the Association Between Socioeconomic Status and Obesity in U.S. Adults: 2002-2012

Since the 1980s, the prevalence of obesity has more than doubled to over 30 percent of the adult population (Thorpe, 2004). Obesity is a key contributing factor to continually rising national healthcare costs. Addressing its negative implications is essential not only from a cost perspective, but also for the betterment of our nation¿s general health and wellbeing. Obesity is reportedly associated with a 35% increase in inpatient and outpatient spending, as well as a 77% increase in related necessary medications (Sturm, 2002). Obesity, which some have argued should be classified as a disease in itself, has roughly the same association with the development of chronic health conditions as does 20 years of aging (Sturm, 2002). Defined as ambulatory care-sensitive conditions, these obesity-related chronic health diagnoses ¿ like diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and hypertension ¿ are in turn the primary drivers of current healthcare spending, as well as future predicted health expenditures. It is well established that lower socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with higher rates of obesity and the subsequent development of aforementioned obesity-related conditions. Socioeconomic status has traditionally been defined by education, income, and occupation (Adler, 2002); however, this study found empirical evidence for education being the most fundamental of these three SES indicators in determining obesity outcomes. For both men and women, as education levels increased, the likelihood of an individual being obese decreased. However, with less education, there was increased disparity between the obesity rates for men and women. Women consistently saw higher rates of obesity and were more impacted in terms of obesity onset by belonging to a lower SES category than men. In addition, this study assessed whether the impact of one¿s socioeconomic status on obesity-related health outcomes (specifically the negative impact low-SES as measured by education level) has changed over time. Results deriving from annual data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) for all years from 2002 to 2012 indicate that the association between low-socioeconomic status and negative health outcomes has not increased in magnitude over the past decade. Instead, obesity rates have increased across the overall U.S. adult population, most likely due to a number of larger external societal factors resulting in increased caloric intake and decreased energy expenditure across every SES group. In addition, while the association between low-SES and obesity has not worsened, a consequence of the Great Recession has been a larger percentage of the U.S. population in lower-SES, which is still consistently subject to the same worse health outcomes.

The precipitous decline of the ortolan bunting Emberiza hortulana: time to build on scientific evidence to inform conservation management

In recent decades there has been a marked decline in most ortolan bunting Emberiza hortulana populations in temperate Europe, with many regional populations now extinct or on the brink of extinction. In contrast, Mediterranean and, as far as we know, eastern European popula-tions seem to have remained relatively stable. The causes of decline remain unclear but include: habitat loss and degradation, and related reduction in prey availability; climate change on the breeding grounds; altered population dynamics; illegal captures during migration; and environmental change in wintering areas. We review the current knowledge of the biology of the ortolan bunting and discuss the proposed causes of decline in relation to the different population trends in temperate and Mediterranean Europe. We suggest new avenues of research to identify the factors limiting ortolan bunting populations. The main evidence-based conservation measure that is likely to enhance habitat quality is the creation of patches of bare ground to produce sparsely vegetated foraging grounds in invertebrate-rich grassy habitats close to breeding areas.

Private Publishing in Moscow and St. Petersburg: Historical Background, Present Situation and Trends"

This research was a complex study of the economic and socio-cultural aspects of the development of Russian private publishing in the second half of the19th and early 20th centuries, during the periods of 'war communism' and the New Economic Policy of 1917 to 1930, and during the reform of book publishing in 1986-1999. Conclusions about private book publishing in Moscow and St. Petersburg were extrapolated to Russia-wide problems of the development of this field. Svichenskaya sees her main achievement as having identified the economic and legal concepts behind the development of private book publishing over the period in question in the context of state and corporate regulation of publishing. Here the state was the main influence on its development and there was a paradox in the relations between the state authorities and private publishers, in that the latter constantly suffered from repression by the former but at the same time were dependent on state support. The research identified the administrative process of the liquidation of private publishing at the end of the 1920s and showed that its present flourishing is closely linked with the establishment of a preferential mode for the development of this sector. Private publishing now represents around 80% of domestic publishing, in terms both of the number of publishing houses and of the number of volumes published, and so plays the major role in satisfying the demand for books in Russia. Svichenskaya predicts that in the coming years private publishing will see a further concentration of growth and a tendency to monopolies and also the increasing specialisation of the publishing repertoire. She outlines a suggested concept of state management in publishing and ways to optimise this. In the transitional period of adaptation to the market regulation of publishing, these include a continuing degree of state protectionism, the creation of a favourable investment climate, privatisation of the printing companies with the aim of modernising these, and the development of coordinated corporate policies.

Development of record-breaking statistics for climatological time-series analysis

The number of record-breaking events expected to occur in a strictly stationary time-series depends only on the number of values in the time-series, regardless of distribution. This holds whether the events are record-breaking highs or lows and whether we count from past to present or present to past. However, these symmetries are broken in distinct ways by trends in the mean and variance. We define indices that capture this information and use them to detect weak trends from multiple time-series. Here, we use these methods to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a variability trend among globally distributed surface temperature time-series? We find a significant decreasing variability over the past century for the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). This corresponds to about a 10% change in the standard deviation of inter-annual monthly mean temperature distributions. (2) How are record-breaking high and low surface temperatures in the United States affected by time period? We investigate the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and find that the ratio of record-breaking highs to lows in 2006 increases as the time-series extend further into the past. When we consider the ratio as it evolves with respect to a fixed start year, we find it is strongly correlated with the ensemble mean. We also compare the ratios for USHCN and GHCN (minus USHCN stations). We find the ratios grow monotonically in the GHCN data set, but not in the USHCN data set. (3) Do we detect either mean or variance trends in annual precipitation within the United States? We find that the total annual and monthly precipitation in the United States (USHCN) has increased over the past century. Evidence for a trend in variance is inconclusive.