ASSESSING THE UNRELIABILITY OF THE MEDICAL LITERATURE: A RESPONSE TO "WHY MOST PUBLISHED RESEARCH FINDINGS ARE FALSE"

A recent article in this journal (Ioannidis JP (2005) Why most published research findings are false. PLoS Med 2: e124) argued that more than half of published research findings in the medical literature are false. In this commentary, we examine the structure of that argument, and show that it has three basic components: 1)An assumption that the prior probability of most hypotheses explored in medical research is below 50%. 2)Dichotomization of P-values at the 0.05 level and introduction of a “bias” factor (produced by significance-seeking), the combination of which severely weakens the evidence provided by every design. 3)Use of Bayes theorem to show that, in the face of weak evidence, hypotheses with low prior probabilities cannot have posterior probabilities over 50%. Thus, the claim is based on a priori assumptions that most tested hypotheses are likely to be false, and then the inferential model used makes it impossible for evidence from any study to overcome this handicap. We focus largely on step (2), explaining how the combination of dichotomization and “bias” dilutes experimental evidence, and showing how this dilution leads inevitably to the stated conclusion. We also demonstrate a fallacy in another important component of the argument –that papers in “hot” fields are more likely to produce false findings. We agree with the paper’s conclusions and recommendations that many medical research findings are less definitive than readers suspect, that P-values are widely misinterpreted, that bias of various forms is widespread, that multiple approaches are needed to prevent the literature from being systematically biased and the need for more data on the prevalence of false claims. But calculating the unreliability of the medical research literature, in whole or in part, requires more empirical evidence and different inferential models than were used. The claim that “most research findings are false for most research designs and for most fields” must be considered as yet unproven.

Validation of candidate smear microscopy quality indicators, extracted from tuberculosis laboratory registers

SETTING: Kinshasa Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. OBJECTIVE: To identify and validate register-based indicators of acid-fast bacilli (AFB) microscopy quality. DESIGN: Selection of laboratories based on reliability and variation in routine smear rechecking results. Calculation of relative sensitivity (RS) compared to recheckers and its correlation coefficient (R) with candidate indicators based on a fully probabilistic analysis incorporating vague prior information using WinBUGS. RESULTS: The proportion of positive follow-up smears correlated well (median R 0.81, 95% credibility interval [CI] 0.58-0.93), and the proportion of first smear-positive cases fairly (median R 0.70, 95% CI 0.38-0.89) with RS. The proportions of both positive suspect and low positive case smears showed poor correlations (median R 0.27 and -0.22, respectively, with ranges including zero). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of positives in follow-up smears is the most promising indicator of AFB smear sensitivity, while the proportion of positive suspects may be more indicative of accessibility and suspect selection. Both can be obtained from simple reports, and should be used for internal and external monitoring and as guidance for supervision. As proportion of low positive suspect smears and consistency within case series are more difficult to interpret, they should be used only on-site by laboratory professionals. All indicators require more research to define their optimal range in various settings.

[Positive ibopamine provocative test in normal-tension glaucoma suspects]

BACKGROUND: Ibopamine is an alpha-adrenergic agent and causes an elevation of intraocular pressure in eyes with increased outflow resistance. It has been proposed as a test substance for the detection of early ocular hydrodynamic disorders. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 64 normal-tension glaucoma suspect eyes without anti-hypertensive treatment were enrolled. A daily pressure curve was registered with measurements at 7:00 am, 8:00 am, 12:00 am, 17:00 pm using an applanation tonometer and a contour tonometer followed by instillation of ibopamine 2% in both eyes. Tonometry was performed every 15 minutes during the following hour. An IOP increase of > 2.0 mmHg was considered positive. RESULTS: The positive test group showed a significant pressure increase from 18.04 to 22.06 mmHg. Ocular pulse amplitude increased from 2.96 to 3.97 mmHg and was positively correlated with the pressure. Intraocular pressure was unchanged in the negative test group. Central corneal thickness was not significantly different in the two groups (p = 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: Ibopamine 2% eye drops have a positive pressure effect in 50% of suspected normal-tension glaucoma eyes and may differentiate between eyes with normal trabecular outflow capacity and eyes with increased resistance in the trabecular meshwork that are prone to pressure peaks and deterioration to glaucoma.

The Presence of Asbestos-Contaminated Vermiculite Attic Insulation and/or Other Asbestos Containing Materials in Homes and the Potential for Living Space Contamination

Asbestos-contaminated vermiculite attic insulation (VAI) produced from a mine near Libby, Montana, may be present in millions of homes along with other commercial asbestos-containing materials (ACM). The primary goal of the research described here was to develop and test procedures that would allow for the safe and effective weatherization of low-income homes with asbestos. The presence of asbestos insulation was confirmed by bulk sampling of the suspect asbestos material. The homes were then tested for the presence of asbestos fibers in the living spaces. All 40 homes containing VAI revealed the presence of amphibole asbestos in bulk samples. Asbestos (primarily chrysotile) was confirmed in bulk samples of ACM collected from 18 homes. Amphibole asbestos was detected in the living space of 12 (26%) homes, while chrysotile asbestos was detected in the living space of 45 (98%) homes. These results suggest that asbestos sources in homes can contribute to living space contamination

Quality Management and Formalization in Social Service Organizations - A Survey on Home-Based Family Intervention Services

Although the effects of quality management on social work are still widely unexplored, critics suspect that it will lead to a negative standardization of working conditions, whereas supporters of quality management hope for a greater transparency and effectiveness of service delivery. This article reports on a survey of 30 managers, 261 professionals, and 435 families in 30 family intervention service organizations. It uses cluster analysis to explore the relationship between quality management and different forms of work formalization. Results showed that working conditions generally are enabling for professional practice, but differences exist between what is called here a managerialist machine bureaucracy, an atomistic professional organization, and a collegiate professional organization.

Tuberculosis caused by Mycobacterium microti in South American camelids

BACKGROUND: Infection with Mycobacterium microti can cause chronic disease in animals and threaten human health through its zoonotic potential. OBJECTIVE: To describe clinical findings, diagnostic investigations, necropsy, and epidemiology results in South American camelids (SAC) infected with M. microti, member of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex. ANIMALS: Eleven SAC with tuberculous lesions. METHODS: Description of 10 llamas and 1 alpaca, aged 4-18 years, from 6 herds with a history of wasting and weakness admitted to the Vetsuisse-Faculty of Berne over 8 years. RESULTS: Clinical signs included weight loss, recumbency, and anorexia in late stages of the disease. Respiratory problems were seen in 6 animals of 11. No consistent hematologic abnormalities were identified. Suspect animals were examined in detail by abdominal ultrasonography and thoracic radiology. Abnormal findings such as enlarged mediastinal, mesenteric, or hepatic lymph nodes were seen only in animals with advanced disease. Single comparative intradermal tuberculin test with bovine protein purified derivate (PPD) and avian PPD was negative in all animals. At necropsy, typical tuberculous lesions were found, and confirmed by bacteriological smear and culture, molecular methods, or both. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE: Infection caused by M. microti should be considered a differential diagnosis in chronic debilitating disease with or without respiratory signs in SAC. Antemortem confirmation of the diagnosis remains challenging at any stage of infection. Because cases of M. microti infection have been reported in immunocompromized human patients, the zoonotic potential of the organism should be kept in mind when dealing with this disease in SAC.

Effects of mild vitamin a deficiency on lung maturation in newborn rats: a morphometric and morphologic study

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the effects of a 60% vitamin A deficiency (VAD) on the two postnatal stages of lung development: alveolarization and microvascular maturation. Lungs from deficient rats were compared to age-matched controls. STUDY DESIGN Starting at 3 weeks before mating, female rats were maintained under a diet lacking vitamin A. Due to the slow depletion of the vitamin A liver stores the pregnant rats carried to term and delivered pups under mild VAD conditions. Mothers and offspring were then kept under the same diet what resulted in a mean reduction of vitamin A plasma concentration of about 60% vs. controls during the whole experimental period. Pups were sacrificed on days 4, 10 and 21 and their lungs fixed and analyzed by means of a combined morphologic and morphometric investigation at light and electron microscopic levels. RESULTS During the whole experiment, body weights of VAD animals were lower than controls with a significant decrease on day 10. On days 4, 10 and 21 the pulmonary structure was in a comparable gross morphologic state in both groups. Despite this morphologic normality, quantitative alterations in some functional parameters could be detected. On day 4, lung volume and the volume and surface area of air spaces were decreased, while the arithmetic mean barrier thickness and type 2 pneumocyte volume were increased in the VAD group. On day 21, some changes were again manifest mainly consisting in an augmentation of the vascularization and a decrease in interstitial volume in deficient animals. CONCLUSIONS Mild VAD causes no gross disturbances in the postnatal phases of lung development in rats. However, a body weight-related transient retardation of lung maturation was detectable in the first postnatal week. At 3 weeks, the VAD lungs showed a more mature vascular system substantiated by an increase in volume of both capillary volume and the large non-parenchymal vessels. In view of these quantitative alterations, we suspect that mild VAD deregulates the normal phases of body and lung growth, but does not induce serious functional impairments.

Type I Hypersensitivity in Lambs With Coughing Syndrome

Lambs from two flocks with a chronic respiratory disease characterized by paroxysmal cough and rectal prolapses were tested for their skin reactivity to Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae (MO) and M. arginini (MA) antigens (Ags). There was a marked, immediate skin reaction to intradermal injection of MO Ag in many of the tested lambs. Some of these positive lambs also reacted to MA Ag. Phosphate buffered saline (PBS) used as a negative control gave no skin reaction in any of the tested animals. In addition, simultaneous serological tests revealed low antibody levels against MO and MA. However, both agents could be routinely isolated from nasal swabs of the affected lambs. There is reason to suspect that an immediate type hypersensitivity to MO Ag and perhaps to other allergens that develops in association with the mycoplasmal infection contributes to this coughing syndrome.

A Targeted Survey for Scrapie in Jos Plateau State, Nigeria

Scrapie, a disease of sheep and goats with a progressive course and fatal outcome, has not been identified in Nigeria. Anecdotal scrapie reports by livestock workers abound. Livestock diseases like scrapie form huddles in livestock economics of countries. For 8 months we surveyed for scrapie targeting emergency/casualty slaughter sheep and goats in Jos, Nigeria. We clinically examined 510 sheep and 608 goats of local breeds, aged from 12 months to 5 years. In total 31 (5.10%) goats and no sheep were clinically suspicious for scrapie. Caudal brainstem tissues of suspect animals collected postmortem were analyzed for the disease specific form of the prion protein, PrPSc, using Bio-Rad’s TeSeE ELISA rapid test kit. No sample was positive for scrapie. Fluorescent antibody test for rabies and H&E staining on samples were carried out for differential diagnosis. These showed no pathological lesions indicative for neurological disease. While our findings do not exclude the presence of scrapie in Jos, we demonstrate that targeted sampling of small ruminants for neuroinfectious disease is feasible in developing countries, pointing to the possibility of implementing such a monitoring scheme in Nigeria to prevent economic losses in small ruminant livestock as scrapie caveats from endemic countries have shown.

Traffic-Adaptive and Link-Quality-Aware Communication in Wireless Sensor Networks

This paper is a summary of the main contribu- tions of the PhD thesis published in [1]. The main research contributions of the thesis are driven by the research question how to design simple, yet efficient and robust run-time adaptive resource allocation schemes within the commu- nication stack of Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) nodes. The thesis addresses several problem domains with con- tributions on different layers of the WSN communication stack. The main contributions can be summarized as follows: First, a a novel run-time adaptive MAC protocol is intro- duced, which stepwise allocates the power-hungry radio interface in an on-demand manner when the encountered traffic load requires it. Second, the thesis outlines a metho- dology for robust, reliable and accurate software-based energy-estimation, which is calculated at network run- time on the sensor node itself. Third, the thesis evaluates several Forward Error Correction (FEC) strategies to adap- tively allocate the correctional power of Error Correcting Codes (ECCs) to cope with timely and spatially variable bit error rates. Fourth, in the context of TCP-based communi- cations in WSNs, the thesis evaluates distributed caching and local retransmission strategies to overcome the perfor- mance degrading effects of packet corruption and trans- mission failures when transmitting data over multiple hops. The performance of all developed protocols are eval- uated on a self-developed real-world WSN testbed and achieve superior performance over selected existing ap- proaches, especially where traffic load and channel condi- tions are suspect to rapid variations over time.

Dietary factors in the modulation of inflammatory bowel disease activity.

CONTEXT: As patients look to complementary therapies for management of their diseases, it is important that the physician know the effectiveness and/or lack of effectiveness of a variety of dietary approaches/interventions. Although the pathogenesis of the inflammatory bowel diseases (ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease) is not fully understood, many suspect that diet and various dietary factors may play a modulating role in the disease process. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: The purpose of this article is to present some of what is known about various dietary/nutritional factors in inflammatory bowel disease, with inclusion of evidence from various studies regarding their putative effect. MedLINE was searched (1965-present) using combinations of the following search terms: diet, inflammatory bowel disease, Crohn's disease, and ulcerative colitis. Additionally, references of the articles obtained were searched to identify further potential sources of information. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: While much information is available regarding various dietary interventions/supplements in regard to inflammatory bowel disease, the lack of controlled trials limits broad applicability. Probiotics are one of the few interventions with promising results and controlled trials. CONCLUSION: While there are many potential and promising dietary factors that may play a role in the modulation of inflammatory bowel disease, it is prudent to await further controlled studies before broad application/physician recommendation in the noted patient population.

Boron-Bearing Kornerupine from Fiskenaesset, West Greenland: A Reexamination of Specimens from the Type Locality

In 1884, Lorenzen proposed the formula MgAI2SiO6 for his new mineral kornerupine from Fiskenæsset and did not suspect it to contain boron. Lacroix and de Gramont (1919) reported boron in Fiskenæsset kornerupine, while Herd (1973) found none. New analyses (ion microprobe mass analyser and spectrophotometric) of kornerupine in three specimens from the type locality, including the specimens analysed by Lorenzen and Herd, indicate the presence of boron in all three, in amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.44 wt.% B203, e.g. (Li0.04 Na0.01 Ca0.01) (Mg3.49 Mn0.01 Fe0.17 Ti0.01 Al5.64)Σ9.30 (Si3.67 Al1.02 B0.31)Σ5 O21 (OH0.99 F0.01) for Lorenzen's specimen. Textures and chemical compositions suggest that kornerupine crystallized in equilibrium in the following assemblages, all with anorthite (An 92-95) and phlogopite (XFe = atomic Fe/(Fe + Mg) = 0.028-0.035): (1) kornerupine (0.045)-gedrite (0.067); (2) kornerupine (0.038-0.050)-sapphirine (0.032-0.035); and (3) kornerupine (0.050)-hornblende. Fluorine contents of kornerupine range from 0.01 to 0.06%, of phlogopite, from 0.09 to 0.10%. In the first assemblage, sapphirine (0.040) and corundum are enclosed in radiating bundles of kornerupine; additionally sapphirine, corundum, and/or gedrite occur with chlorite and pinite (cordierite?) as breakdown products of kornerupine. Kornerupine may have formed by reactions such as: gedrite + sapphirine + corundum + B203 (in solution) + H20 = kornerupine + anorthite + Na-phlogopite under conditions of the granulite facies. Boron for kornerupine formation was most likely remobilized by hydrous fluids from metasedimentary rocks occurring along the upper contact of the Fiskenæsset gabbro-anorthosite complex with amphibolite.

Polychlorinated Biphenyls in Glaciers. 2. Model Results of Deposition and Incorporation Processes

In previous work, Alpine glaciers have been identified as a secondary source of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). However, detailed understanding of the processes organic chemicals undergo in a glacial system was missing. Here, we present results from a chemical fate model describing deposition and incorporation of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) into an Alpine glacier (Fiescherhorn, Switzerland) and an Arctic glacier (Lomonosovfonna, Norway). To understand PCB fate and dynamics, we investigate the interaction of deposition, sorption to ice and particles in the atmosphere and within the glacier, revolatilization, diffusion and degradation, and discuss the effects of these processes on the fate of individual PCB congeners. The model is able to reproduce measured absolute concentrations in the two glaciers for most PCB congeners. While the model generally predicts concentration profiles peaking in the 1970s, in the measurements, this behavior can only be seen for higher-chlorinated PCB congeners on Fiescherhorn glacier. We suspect seasonal melt processes are disturbing the concentration profiles of the lower-chlorinated PCB congeners. While a lower-chlorinated PCB congener is mainly deposited by dry deposition and almost completely revolatilized after deposition, a higher-chlorinated PCB congener is predominantly transferred to the glacier surface by wet deposition and then is incorporated into the glacier ice. The incorporated amounts of PCBs are higher on the Alpine glacier than on the Arctic glacier due to the higher precipitation rate and aerosol particle concentration on the former. Future studies should include the effects of seasonal melt processes, calculate the quantities of PCBs incorporated into the entire glacier surface, and estimate the quantity of chemicals released from glaciers to determine the importance of glaciers as a secondary source of organic chemicals to remote aquatic ecosystems.

Biotic and Abiotic Properties Mediating Plant Diversity Effects on Soil Microbial Communities in an Experimental Grassland

Plant diversity drives changes in the soil microbial community which may result in alterations in ecosystem functions. However, the governing factors between the composition of soil microbial communities and plant diversity are not well understood. We investigated the impact of plant diversity (plant species richness and functional group richness) and plant functional group identity on soil microbial biomass and soil microbial community structure in experimental grassland ecosystems. Total microbial biomass and community structure were determined by phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis. The diversity gradient covered 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and 60 plant species and 1, 2, 3 and 4 plant functional groups (grasses, legumes, small herbs and tall herbs). In May 2007, soil samples were taken from experimental plots and from nearby fields and meadows. Beside soil texture, plant species richness was the main driver of soil microbial biomass. Structural equation modeling revealed that the positive plant diversity effect was mainly mediated by higher leaf area index resulting in higher soil moisture in the top soil layer. The fungal-to-bacterial biomass ratio was positively affected by plant functional group richness and negatively by the presence of legumes. Bacteria were more closely related to abiotic differences caused by plant diversity, while fungi were more affected by plant-derived organic matter inputs. We found diverse plant communities promoted faster transition of soil microbial communities typical for arable land towards grassland communities. Although some mechanisms underlying the plant diversity effect on soil microorganisms could be identified, future studies have to determine plant traits shaping soil microbial community structure. We suspect differences in root traits among different plant communities, such as root turnover rates and chemical composition of root exudates, to structure soil microbial communities.

Revisiting the Nd-142 deficits in the 1.48 Ga Khariar alkaline rocks, India

The 146Sm–142Nd system plays a central role in tracing the silicate differentiation of the Earth prior to 4.1 Ga. After this time, given its initial abundance, the 146Sm can be considered to be extinct. Upadhyay et al. (2009) reported unexpected negative 142Nd anomalies in 1.48 Ga rocks of the Khariar nepheline syenite complex (India) and inferred that an early enriched, low-Sm/Nd reservoir must have contributed to the mantle source rocks of the Khariar complex. As 146Sm had been effectively extinct for about 2.6 billion years before the crystallisation of the Khariar samples, this Nd signature should have remained isolated from the convective mantle for at least that long. It was thus suggested that the source rock of Khariar samples had been sequestered in the lithospheric root of the Indian craton. Using a different chemical separation method, and a different Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry (TIMS) analysis protocol, the present study attempted to replicate these negative 142Nd anomalies, but none were found. To determine which data set is correct, we investigated three possible sources of bias between them: imperfect cancellation of Faraday collector efficiencies during multidynamic TIMS analysis, rapid sample fractionation between the sequential measurement of 146Nd/144Nd and 142Nd/144Nd, and non-exponential law behaviour resulting from so-called “domain mixing.” Incomplete cancellation of collector efficiencies was found unlikely to cause resolvable biases at the estimated level of variation among collector efficiencies. Even in the case of highly variable efficiency and resolvable biases, there is no reason to suspect that they would reproducibly affect only four rocks out of 10 analysed by Upadhyay et al. (2009). Although domain mixing may explain apparent “reverse” fractionation trends observed in some TIMS analyses, it cannot be the cause of the apparent negative anomalies in the study of Upadhyay et al. (2009). It was determined that rapid mass fractionation during the course of a multidynamic TIMS analysis can bias all measured Nd ratios. After applying an approximate correction for this effect, only one rock from Upadhyay et al. (2009) retained an apparent negative 142Nd anomaly. This, in conjunction with our new, anomaly-free data set measured at fractionation rates too low to cause bias, leads to the conclusion that the anomalies reported by Upadhyay et al. (2009) are a subtle and reproducible analytical artefact. The absence of negative 142Nd anomalies in these rocks relaxes the need for a mechanism (other than crust formation) that can isolate a Nd reservoir from the convective mantle for billions of years.