Tide And River Runoff Interactions In The Cochin Estuary

Hydrodynamic characteristics of an estuary resulting from interaction of tide and river runoff are important since problems regarding flood, salinity intrusion, water quality, ecosystem and sedimentation are ubiquitous. The present study focuses on such hydrodynamic aspects in the Cochin estuary. Most of the estuaries that come under the influence of Indian Summer Monsoon and for which the salinity is never in a steady state at any time of the year are generally shallow and convergent, i.e. the width decreases rapidly from mouth to head. In contrast, Cochin estuary is wider towards the upstream and has no typical river mouth, where the rivers are joining the estuary along the length of its channel .Adding to the complexity it has dual inlets and the tidal range is 1 m which is lower than other Indian estuaries along west coast. These typical physical features lead to its unique hydrodynamic characteristics. Therefore the thesis objectives are: I) to study the influence of river runoff on tidal propagation using observations and a numerical model ii) to study stratification and property distributions in Cochin estuary iii) to understand salinity distributions and flushing characteristics iv) to understand the influence of saltwater barrage on tides and salinity v) To evaluate several classification schemes for the estuary

Characteristics of SST over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

Evolution of mini warm pool in the Arabian Sea just before the onset of southwest monsoon and behavior of SST in the vicinity of weather systems formed during the premonsoon, southwest monsoon and post monsoon seasons were studied using TMI SST data. The Arabian Sea mini warm pool is formed about three weeks ahead of onset of southwest monsoon. Maximum SST is found about one week ahead of monsoon onset and then the warm pool gradually dissipated. Generally, a low-pressure system is formed when the SST exceeds a certain threshold value for the formation of the system. Daily SST values are examined both in Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal to bring out the quantity of increase in SST just before the formation of the system, quantity of rapid decrease in SST during the formation of the system and the number of days required for returning to normal SST. Many cases were examined for pre-monsoon, southwest monsoon and post monsoon seasons to understand the behavior of SST pattern. It is found that the SST increases about 3° C just before the formation of the system and decreases about 4° C during the formation within 2 to 3 days and takes about 4 to 6 days to return to normal SST pattern. However, the SST pattern depends on the weather system

Study of the Oceanic Heat Budget Components over the Arabian Sea during the Formation and Evolution of Super Cyclone, Gonu

Oceans play a vital role in the global climate system. They absorb the incoming solar energy and redistribute the energy through horizontal and vertical transports. In this context it is important to investigate the variation of heat budget components during the formation of a low-pressure system. In 2007, the monsoon onset was on 28th May. A well- marked low-pressure area was formed in the eastern Arabian Sea after the onset and it further developed into a cyclone. We have analysed the heat budget components during different stages of the cyclone. The data used for the computation of heat budget components is Objectively Analyzed air-sea flux data obtained from WHOI (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) project. Its horizontal resolution is 1° × 1°. Over the low-pressure area, the latent heat flux was 180 Wm−2. It increased to a maximum value of 210 Wm−2 on 1st June 2007, on which the system was intensified into a cyclone (Gonu) with latent heat flux values ranging from 200 to 250 Wm−2. It sharply decreased after the passage of cyclone. The high value of latent heat flux is attributed to the latent heat release due to the cyclone by the formation of clouds. Long wave radiation flux is decreased sharply from 100 Wm−2 to 30 Wm−2 when the low-pressure system intensified into a cyclone. The decrease in long wave radiation flux is due to the presence of clouds. Net heat flux also decreases sharply to −200 Wm−2 on 1st June 2007. After the passage, the flux value increased to normal value (150 Wm−2) within one day. A sharp increase in the sensible heat flux value (20 Wm−2) is observed on 1st June 2007 and it decreased there- after. Short wave radiation flux decreased from 300 Wm−2 to 90 Wm−2 during the intensification on 1st June 2007. Over this region, short wave radiation flux sharply increased to higher value soon after the passage of the cyclone.

Variations of surface boundary layer parameters associated with Cyclone Gonu over the Arabian Sea using QuikSCAT data

This study attempted to quantify the variations of the surface marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) parameters associated with the tropical Cyclone Gonu formed over the Arabian Sea during 30 May–7 June 2007 (just after the monsoon onset). These characteristics were evaluated in terms of surface wind, drag coefficient, wind stress, horizontal divergence, and frictional velocity using 0.5◦ × 0.5◦ resolution Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) wind products. The variation of these different surface boundary layer parameters was studied for three defined cyclone life stages: prior to the formation, during, and after the cyclone passage. Drastic variations of the MABL parameters during the passage of the cyclone were observed. The wind strength increased from 12 to 22 m s−1 in association with different stages of Gonu. Frictional velocity increased from a value of 0.1–0.6 m s−1 during the formative stage of the system to a high value of 0.3–1.4 m s−1 during the mature stage. Drag coefficient varied from 1.5 × 10−3 to 2.5 × 10−3 during the occurrence of Gonu. Wind stress values varied from 0.4 to 1.1 N m−2. Wind stress curl values varied from 10 × 10−7 to 45 × 10−7 N m−3. Generally, convergent winds prevailed with the numerical value of divergence varying from 0 to –4 × 10−5 s−1. Maximum variations of the wind parameters were found in the wall cloud region of the cyclone. The parameters returned to normally observed values in 1–3 days after the cyclone passage

Long term trends of seasonal and monthly rainfall in different intensity ranges over Indian subcontinent

In general Indian summer monsoon rainfall did not show any significant trend in all Indian summer monsoon rainfall series, however, it was reported that the ISMR is subjected to spatial trends. This paper made an attempt to bring out long term trends of different intensity classes of summer monsoon rainfall in different regions of Indian subcontinent. The long term trend of seasonal and monthly rainfall were also made using the India Meteorological Department gridded daily rainfall data with a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° latitude-longitude grid for the period from 1st January, 1901 to 31st December, 2003. The summer monsoon rainfall shows an increasing trend in southeast, northwest and northeast regions, whereas decreasing trend in the central and west coastal regions. In monthly scale, July rainfall shows decreasing trend over west coastal and central Indian regions and significant increasing trend over northeast region at 0.1% significant level. During the month August, decreasing trend is observed in the west coastal stations at 10% significant level. In most of the stations, mean daily rainfall shows an increasing trend for low and very high intense rainfall. For the moderate rainfall, the trend is different for different regions. In the central and southern regions the trend of moderate and moderately high classes show increasing trend. And for the high and very high intensity classes, the trend is decreasing significantly. In the northeastern regions, above 10 mm/day rainfall shows significantly increasing trend with 0.1% significant level.

Role of sea-surface wind and transport on enhanced aerosol optical depth observed over the Arabian Sea

The objective of this study is to understand the reasons for the enhancement in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Arabian Sea observed during June, July and August. During these months, high values of AOD are found over the sea beyond 10◦ N and adjacent regions. The Arabian Sea is bounded by the lands of Asia and Africa on its three sides. So the region is influenced by transported aerosols from the surroundings as well as aerosols of local origin (marine aerosols). During the summer monsoon season in India, strong surface winds with velocities around 15 m s−1 are experienced over most parts of the Arabian Sea. These winds are capable of increasing sea spray activity, thereby enhancing the production of marine aerosols. The strong winds increase the contribution of marine aerosols over the region to about 60% of the total aerosol content. The main components of marine aerosols include sea salt and sulphate particles. The remaining part of the aerosol particles comes from the western and northern land masses around the sea, of which the main component is transported dust particles. This transport is observed at higher altitudes starting from 600 m. At low levels, the transport occurs mainly from the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea itself, indicating the predominance of marine aerosols at these levels. The major portion of the total aerosol loading was contributed by coarse-mode particles during the period of study. But in the winter season, the concentration of coarse-mode aerosols is found to be less. From the analysis, it is concluded that the increase in marine aerosols and dust particles transported from nearby deserts results in an increase in aerosol content over the Arabian Sea during June, July and August.

Formation of anoxia and denitrification in the bottom waters of a tropical estuary, southwest coast of India

Hydrographic characteristics of the southwest coast of India and its adjoining Cochin backwaters (CBW) were studied during the summer monsoon period. Anomalous formation of anoxia and denitrification were observed in the bottom layers of CBW, which 5 have not been previously reported elsewhere in any tropical estuarine systems. The prevalent upwelling in the Arabian Sea (AS) brought cool, high saline, oxygen deficient and nutrient-rich waters towards the coastal zone and bottom layers of CBW during the high tide. High freshwater discharge in the surface layers brought high amount of nutrients and makes the CBW system highly productive. Intrusion of AS waters seems 10 to be stronger towards the upstream end ( 15 km), than had been previously reported, as a consequence of the lowering of river discharges and deepening of channels in the estuary. Time series measurements in the lower reaches of CBW indicated a low mixing zone with increased stratification, 3 h after the high tide (highest high tide) and high variation in vertical mixing during the spring and neap phases. The upwelled waters 15 (O2 40 μM) intruded into the estuary was found to lose more oxygen during the neap phase (suboxic O2 4 μM) than spring phase (hypoxic O2 10 μM). Increased stratification coupled with low ventilation and presence of high organic matter have resulted in an anoxic condition (O2 = 0), 2–6 km away from barmouth of the estuary and leads to the formation of hydrogen sulphide. The reduction of nitrate and formation of nitrite 20 within the oxygen deficient waters indicated strong denitrification intensity in the estuary. The expansion of oxygen deficient zone, denitrification and formation of hydrogen sulphide may lead to a destruction of biodiversity and an increase of green house gas emissions from this region

The role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the El Nino and Indian drought of 2002

In 2002 India experienced a severe drought, one among the five worst droughts since records began in 1871, notable for its countrywide influence. The drought was primarily due to an unprecedented break in the monsoon during July, which persisted for almost the whole month and affected most of the sub-continent. The failure of the monsoon in 2002 was not predicted and India was not prepared for the devastating impacts on, for example, agriculture. This paper documents the evolution of the 2002 Indian summer monsoon and considers the possible factors that contributed to the drought and the failure of the forecasts. The development of the 2002/2003 El Nino and the unusually high levels of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity during the monsoon season are identified as the central players. The 2002/2003 El Nino was characterised by very high sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific that developed rapidly during the monsoon season. It is suggested that the unusual character of the developing El Nino was associated with the MJO and was a consequence of the eastward extension of the West Pacific Warm Pool, brought about primarily by a series of westerly wind events (WWEs) as part of the eastward movement of the active phase of the MJO. During the boreal summer, the MJO is usually characterised by northward movement, but in 2002 the northward component of the MJO was weak and the MJO was dominated by a strong eastward component, probably driven by the abnormally high SSTs in the central Pacific. It is suggested that a positive feedback existed between the developing El Nino and the eastward component of the MJO, which weakened the active phases of the monsoon. In particular, the unprecedented monsoon break in July could be associated with the juxtaposition of strong MJO activity with a developing El Nino, both of which interfered constructively with each other to produce major perturbations to the distribution of tropical heating. Subsequently, the main impact of the developing El Nino was a modulation of the Walker circulation that led to the overall suppression of the Indian monsoon during thess latter part of the season. It is argued that the unique combination of a rapidly developing El Nino and strong MJO activity, which was timed within the seasonal cycle to have maximum impact on the Indian summer monsoon, meant that prediction of the prolonged break in July and the seasonally deficient rainfall was a challenge for both the empirical and dynamical forecasting systems. Copyright (C) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

The physical properties of the atmosphere in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). Part II: Aspects of variability and regional climate

The performance of the atmospheric component of the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) is assessed in terms of its ability to represent a selection of key aspects of variability in the Tropics and extratropics. These include midlatitude storm tracks and blocking activity, synoptic variability over Europe, and the North Atlantic Oscillation together with tropical convection, the Madden-Julian oscillation, and the Asian summer monsoon. Comparisons with the previous model, the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), demonstrate that there has been a considerable increase in the transient eddy kinetic energy (EKE), bringing HadGEM1 into closer agreement with current reanalyses. This increase in EKE results from the increased horizontal resolution and, in combination with the improved physical parameterizations, leads to improvements in the representation of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and blocking. The simulation of synoptic weather regimes over Europe is also greatly improved compared to HadCM3, again due to both increased resolution and other model developments. The variability of convection in the equatorial region is generally stronger and closer to observations than in HadCM3. There is, however, still limited convective variance coincident with several of the observed equatorial wave modes. Simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation is improved in HadGEM1: both the activity and interannual variability are increased and the eastward propagation, although slower than observed, is much better simulated. While some aspects of the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon are improved in HadGEM1, the upper-level winds are too weak and the simulation of precipitation deteriorates. The dominant modes of monsoon interannual variability are similar in the two models, although in HadCM3 this is linked to SST forcing, while in HadGEM1 internal variability dominates. Overall, analysis of the phenomena considered here indicates that HadGEM1 performs well and, in many important respects, improves upon HadCM3. Together with the improved representation of the mean climate, this improvement in the simulation of atmospheric variability suggests that HadGEM1 provides a sound basis for future studies of climate and climate change.

The meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean, and the influence of the east African highlands

This paper reviews the meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean and uses a state–of–the–art atmospheric general circulation model to investigate the influence of the East African Highlands on the climate of the Indian Ocean and its surrounding regions. The new 44–year re–analysis produced by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been used to construct a new climatology of the Western Indian Ocean. A brief overview of the seasonal cycle of the Western Indian Ocean is presented which emphasizes the importance of the geography of the Indian Ocean basin for controlling the meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean. The principal modes of inter–annual variability are described, associated with El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole or Zonal Mode, and the basic characteristics of the subseasonal weather over the Western Indian Ocean are presented, including new statistics on cyclone tracks derived from the ECMWF re–analyses. Sensitivity experiments, in which the orographic effects of East Africa are removed, have shown that the East African Highlands, although not very high, play a significant role in the climate of Africa, India and Southeast Asia, and in the heat, salinity and momentum forcing of the Western Indian Ocean. The hydrological cycle over Africa is systematically enhanced in all seasons by the presence of the East African Highlands, and during the Asian summer monsoon there is a major redistribution of the rainfall across India and Southeast Asia. The implied impact of the East African Highlands on the ocean is substantial. The East African Highlands systematically freshen the tropical Indian Ocean, and act to focus the monsoon winds along the coast, leading to greater upwelling and cooler sea–surface temperatures.

ENSO at 6ka and 21ka from ocean–atmosphere coupled model simulations

We analyze how the characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are changed in coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations of the mid-Holocene (MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) performed as part of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2). Comparison of the model results with present day observations show that most of the models reproduce the large scale features of the tropical Pacific like the SST gradient, the mean SST and the mean seasonal cycles. All models simulate the ENSO variability, although with different skill. Our analyses show that several relationships between El Niño amplitude and the mean state across the different control simulations are still valid for simulations of the MH and the LGM. Results for the MH show a consistent El Niño amplitude decrease. It can be related to the large scale atmospheric circulation changes. While the Northern Hemisphere receives more insolation during the summer time, the Asian summer monsoon system is strengthened which leads to the enhancement of the Walker circulation. Easterlies prevailing over the central eastern Pacific induce an equatorial upwelling that damps the El Niño development. Results are less conclusive for 21ka. Large scale dynamic competes with changes in local heat fluxes, so that model shows a wide range of responses, as it is the case in future climate projections.

Cross-hemispheric transport of Central African biomass burning pollutants: Implications for downwind ozone production

Pollutant plumes with enhanced concentrations of trace gases and aerosols were observed over the southern coast of West Africa during August 2006 as part of the AMMA wet season field campaign. Plumes were observed both in the mid and upper troposphere. In this study we examined the origin of these pollutant plumes, and their potential to photochemically produce ozone (O3) downwind over the Atlantic Ocean. Their possible contribution to the Atlantic O3 maximum is also discussed. Runs using the BOLAM mesoscale model including biomass burning carbon monoxide (CO) tracers were used to confirm an origin from central African biomass burning fires. The plumes measured in the mid troposphere (MT) had significantly higher pollutant concentrations over West Africa compared to the upper tropospheric (UT) plume. The mesoscale model reproduces these differences and the two different pathways for the plumes at different altitudes: transport to the north-east of the fire region, moist convective uplift and transport to West Africa for the upper tropospheric plume versus north-west transport over the Gulf of Guinea for the mid-tropospheric plume. Lower concentrations in the upper troposphere are mainly due to enhanced mixing during upward transport. Model simulations suggest that MT and UT plumes are 16 and 14 days old respectively when measured over West Africa. The ratio of tracer concentrations at 600 hPa and 250 hPa was estimated for 14–15 August in the region of the observed plumes and compares well with the same ratio derived from observed carbon dioxide (CO2) enhancements in both plumes. It is estimated that, for the period 1–15 August, the ratio of Biomass Burning (BB) tracer concentration transported in the UT to the ones transported in the MT is 0.6 over West Africa and the equatorial South Atlantic. Runs using a photochemical trajectory model, CiTTyCAT, initialized with the observations, were used to estimate in-situ net photochemical O3 production rates in these plumes during transport downwind of West Africa. The mid-troposphere plume spreads over altitude between 1.5 and 6 km over the Atlantic Ocean. Even though the plume was old, it was still very photochemically active (mean net O3 production rates over 10 days of 2.6 ppbv/day and up to 7 ppbv/day during the first days) above 3 km especially during the first few days of transport westward. It is also shown that the impact of high aerosol loads in the MT plume on photolysis rates serves to delay the peak in modelled O3 concentrations. These results suggest that a significant fraction of enhanced O3 in mid-troposphere over the Atlantic comes from BB sources during the summer monsoon period. According to simulated occurrence of such transport, BB may be the main source for O3 enhancement in the equatorial south Atlantic MT, at least in August 2006. The upper tropospheric plume was also still photochemically active, although mean net O3 production rates were slower (1.3 ppbv/day). The results suggest that, whilst the transport of BB pollutants to the UT is variable (as shown by the mesoscale model simulations), pollution from biomass burning can make an important contribution to additional photochemical production of O3 in addition to other important sources such as nitrogen oxides (NOx) from lightning.

Simulation of crop yields using ERA-40: Limits to skill and nonstationarity in weather-yield relationships

Reanalysis data provide an excellent test bed for impacts prediction systems. because they represent an upper limit on the skill of climate models. Indian groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) yields have been simulated using the General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA-40). The ability of ERA-40 to represent the Indian summer monsoon has been examined. The ability of GLAM. when driven with daily ERA-40 data, to model both observed yields and observed relationships between subseasonal weather and yield has been assessed. Mean yields "were simulated well across much of India. Correlations between observed and modeled yields, where these are significant. are comparable to correlations between observed yields and ERA-40 rainfall. Uncertainties due to the input planting window, crop duration, and weather data have been examined. A reduction in the root-mean-square error of simulated yields was achieved by applying bias correction techniques to the precipitation. The stability of the relationship between weather and yield over time has been examined. Weather-yield correlations vary on decadal time scales. and this has direct implications for the accuracy of yield simulations. Analysis of the skewness of both detrended yields and precipitation suggest that nonclimatic factors are partly responsible for this nonstationarity. Evidence from other studies, including data on cereal and pulse yields, indicates that this result is not particular to groundnut yield. The detection and modeling of nonstationary weather-yield relationships emerges from this study as an important part of the process of understanding and predicting the impacts of climate variability and change on crop yields.

Case studies in interannual to decadal climate predictability

The predictability of ocean and climate variables is investigated, using a perfect model-based case study approach that recognises that predictability is dependent on the initial climate state. In line with previous studies, large scale ocean variables, show predictability for several years or more; by contrast, the predictability of climate variables is generally limited to, 2 years at most. That predictability shows high sensitivity to the initial state is demonstrated by predictable climate signals, arising in different regions, variables and seasons for different initial conditions. The predictability of climate variables, in the second year is of particular interest, because this is beyond the timescale that is usually considered to be the limit, of seasonal predictability. For different initial conditions, second year predictability is found in: temperatures in southeastern, North America (winter) and western Europe (winter and summer), and precipitation in India (summer monsoon) and in the tropical, South Atlantic. Second year predictability arises either from persistence of large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) and, related ocean heat content anomalies, particularly in regions such as the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, or from mechanisms, that involve El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics.

Aspects of the large scale tropical atmospheric circulation

An account is given of a number of recent studies with idealised models whose aim is to further understanding of the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation. Initial-value integrations with a model with imposed heating are used to discuss aspects of the Asian summer monsoon, including constraints on cross-equatorial flow into the monsoon. The summer descent in the Mediterranean region and on the eastern sides of the summer subtropical anticyclones are seen to be associated with the monsoons to their east. An aqua-planet GCM is used to investigate the relationship between simple SST distributions and tropical convection and circulation. The existence of strong equatorial convection and Hadley cells is found to depend sensitively on the curvature of the meridional profile in SST. Zonally confined SST maxima produce convective maxima centred to the west and suppression of convection elsewhere. Strong equatorial zonal flow changes are found in some experiments and three mechanisms for producing these are investigated in a model with imposed heating. 1.