On the clustering of winter storm loss events over Germany

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series for Germany are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Two reanalysis data sets and observations from German weather stations are considered for 30 winters. Histograms of events exceeding selected return levels (1-, 2- and 5-year) are derived. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Over 4000 years of general circulation model (GCM) simulations forced with current climate conditions are analysed to provide a better assessment of historical return periods. Estimations differ between distributions, for example 40 to 65 years for the 1990 series. For such less frequent series, estimates obtained with the Poisson distribution clearly deviate from empirical data. The negative binomial distribution provides better estimates, even though a sensitivity to return level and data set is identified. The consideration of GCM data permits a strong reduction of uncertainties. The present results support the importance of considering explicitly clustering of losses for an adequate risk assessment for economical applications.

Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks

There are large uncertainties in the circulation response of the atmosphere to climate change. One manifestation of this is the substantial spread in projections for the extratropical storm tracks made by different state-of-the-art climate models. In this study we perform a series of sensitivity experiments, with the atmosphere component of a single climate model, in order to identify the causes of the differences between storm track responses in different models. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble are considered. A number of potential physical drivers of storm track change are identified and their influence on the storm tracks is assessed. The experimental design aims to perturb the different physical drivers independently, by magnitudes representative of the range of values present in the CMIP3 model runs, and this is achieved via perturbations to the sea surface temperature and the sea-ice concentration forcing fields. We ask the question: can the spread of projections for the extratropical storm tracks present in the CMIP3 models be accounted for in a simple way by any of the identified drivers? The results suggest that, whilst the changes in the upper-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference have an influence on the storm track response to climate change, the large spread of projections for the extratropical storm track present in the northern North Atlantic in particular is more strongly associated with changes in the lower-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference.

Caught in the eye of the storm: a qualitative study of views and experiences of planned drug holidays from methylphenidate in child and adolescent ADHD treatment

Background: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) can be treated with stimulant medication such as methylphenidate. Although effective, methylphenidate can cause serious side-effects, including suppressed appetite, growth retardation and sleep problems. A drug holiday is a deliberate interruption of pharmacotherapy for a defined period of time and for a specific clinical purpose, for example for appeasing side-effects. Whilst some international guidelines recommend introducing drug holidays in ADHD treatment, this is not practised routinely. Our aim was to examine the views and experiences of planned drug holidays from methylphenidate with adults who have responsibility for treatment decisions in children and adolescents with ADHD. Method: In-depth interviews were carried out. Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) practitioners (n=8), General Practitioners (n=8), teachers (n=5), and mothers of children with ADHD (n=4) were interviewed in a UK setting. Interview transcripts were analysed using grounded theory. Results: Methylphenidate eases the experience of the child amid problems at home and at school and once started is mostly continued long-term. Some families do practise short-term drug holidays at weekends and longer-term ones during school holidays. The decision to introduce drug holidays is influenced by the child’s academic progress, the parents’ ability to cope with the child, as well as medication beliefs. Trialling a drug holiday is thought to allow older children to self-assess their ability to manage without medication when they show signs of wanting to discontinue treatment prematurely. Conclusions: Planned drug holidays could address premature treatment cessation by enabling adolescents to assess repercussions under medical supervision.

Climatology, storm morphologies, and environments of tornadoes in the British Isles: 1980–2012

A climatology is developed for tornadoes during 1980–2012 in the British Isles, defined in this article as England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, Channel Islands, and the Isle of Man. The climatology includes parent storm type, interannual variability, annual and diurnal cycles, intensities, oc- currence of outbreaks (defined as three or more tornadoes in the same day), geographic distribution, and environmental conditions derived from proximity soundings of tornadoes. Tornado reports are from the Tornado and Storm Research Organization (TORRO). Over the 33 years, there were a mean of 34.3 tor- nadoes and 19.5 tornado days (number of days in which at least one tornado occurred) annually. Tornadoes and tornado outbreaks were most commonly produced from linear storms, defined as radar signatures at least 75 km long and approximately 3 times as long as wide. Most (78%) tornadoes occurred in England. The probability of a tornado within 10 km of a point was highest in the south, southeast, and west of England. On average, there were 2.5 tornado outbreaks every year. Where intensity was known, 95% of tornadoes were classified as F0 or F1 with the remainder classified as F2. There were no tornadoes rated F3 or greater during this time period. Tornadoes occurred throughout the year with a maximum from May through October. Finally, tornadoes tended to occur in low-CAPE, high-shear environments. Tornadoes in the British Isles were difficult to predict using only sounding-derived parameters because there were no clear thresholds between null, tornadic, outbreak, and significant tornado cases.

Permian stromatolites associated with bivalve coquina beds-Angatuba, SP, Brazil (Teresina Formation, Parana Basin)

Silicified stromatolites have been described in the Permian Teresina Formation, Passa Dois Group, of the Parana Basin. These stromatolites occur as blocks in the Fazenda Monte Alegre area at the headwaters of the creek known as Corrego Catanduva in the municipality of Angatuba. These blocks originate from the Serra de Angatuba region and were recognized in a road that was cut in the midst of sandstones and siltites. The stromatolites are isolated bioherms that are domed to subspherical with a flat base in profile and a rounded to lenticular shape in plan view. The stromatolites exhibit a reddish coloration and are composed of microcrystalline quartz. Lamination is continuous, non-columnar, and anastomosed, showing parallel to divergent growth; however, divergent columns also occur, especially at the tops of the bioherms. The lamination is fine and well preserved, with alternating light and dark laminas. Microfossils of filamentous cyanobacteria are preserved and were related to the genera Microcoleus and Rivularia. Silicified bivalves occur in association with the stromatolites and are preserved in the form of coquina beds and rare isolated specimens within the bioherms. The described specimens belong to the Pinzonella illusa biozone, with representatives of the species Pinzonella illusa, Angatubia cowperesioides, and Houldausiella elongata. The formation environment of these stromatolites is associated with tidal plains of shallow, brackish, relatively calm, warm waters of good luminosity with the presence of weak currents. There was likely a low level of predation, and the environment may have been hypersaline. The coquina beds associated with the stromatolites indicate a probable proximal tempestite, i.e., they were formed near the coastline. The stromatolites were originally composed of carbonates, although these were replaced by silica during early diagenesis.

In the eye of the storm: exploring the introduction of environmental issues in the production function in Brazilian companies

This article aims to analyse the introduction of environmental issues in the context of the production function, which has been referred to as the organisational area to lead corporate environmental management. With that purpose, the theoretical references for corporate environmental management and the necessary alterations in production function have been organised to include environmental aspects, especially in terms of product and process development, quality management, and logistics. Considering that this research field still lacks empirical evidence for Brazilian companies, four case studies were conducted using companies located in the country. The environmental management maturity level of those companies tends to follow the rate with which the environmental issue is introduced in production sub-areas, especially in the product development process. However, in most cases we found that the companies had difficulties in structuring the insertion of the environmental dimension in logistics. The final notes point out the distance observed between what is recommended by international literature and the reality of Brazilian companies in the challenge of making the production function environmentally friendly.

PENNSYLVANIAN HETEROCONCHIA (MOLLUSCA, BIVALVIA) FROM THE PIAUI FORMATION, PARNAIBA BASIN, BRAZIL

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Reproductive output of the spider crab Epialtus bituberculatus (H. Milne Edwards, 1834) (Crustacea, Decapoda, Brachyura) associated with beds of the alga Sargassum cymosum (C. Agardh, 1820) on the southeastern Brazilian coast

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Tafonomia de tempestitos conchíferos amalgamados da formação Teresina em Rio Preto (Estado do Paraná, permiano médio, bacia do Paraná) e suas implicações paleoambientais

The deposits of the Permian Teresina Formation are mainly characterized by fi ne-grained siliciclastic rocks and centimetric intercalations of tempestites (bioclastic sandstones and coquinas). Despite the relevance of the bivalve-rich carbonate beds of the Teresina Formation to paleoenvironmental studies, their taphonomy is still poorly studied. The fossil concentration studied in this work was found in a quarry in the city of Irati, Rio Preto district, Parana State. The fossil concentration is located in the middle/upper portion of the unit, far from the top. The studied bed is a bioclastic, intraclastic, peloidal, grainstone/ packstone, with abundant bivalve shell fragments, pelitic and micritic intraclasts, peloids, rare ooids and oncoids, as well as permineralized of Lycophyta microphylles and fish scales. The grains of this carbonate concentration show: high degree of time-averaging, variable degree of packing (dense to disperse), no sorting and chaotic orientation. Notably, the concentration includes a mixture of elements which are indicative of: a) restrictive, low energy, carbonate environment (peloids, ooids and oncoids); b) subaerial environment surrounding the main body of water (Lycophyta microphylles) and c) quiet-water environment punctuated by storm events, where the suspension-feeding bivalves thrived. At least four depositional events caused by storm fl ows were recorded. The amalgamated nature of the bed is a result of storm events in an intracratonic basin with very low seafl oor slope and low rates of sedimentation and subsidence.

Tafonomia de biválvios em calcários oolíticos da formação Teresina (Bacia do Paraná, Permiano Médio, Prudentópolis, PR)

Herein, it is presented the first detailed taphonomic study on bivalve mollusk shells preserved in the oolitic limestones of the Teresina Formation (probably Kungurian-Roadian, Lower-Middle Permian) in the eastern margin of the Parana basin. The selected beds are located in two quarries (informally named PRU 1 and PRU 2) in Prudentopolis municipality (Center-South Parana State), and positioned approximately in the middle of the formation and probably in the Pinzonella illusa Zone. The PRU 1 limestone ([approximately]30 cm thick), which is partially silicified and intercalated with predominantly pelitic rocks, is classified as a bivalve oolitic grainstone. The basal contact is erosive and the top shows symmetrical ripple marks, which are draped by shale with mud cracks. There are two fining-upwards successions characterized by dense to dispersed packing of the shells, which are usually disarticulated, randomly oriented (many nested/stacked) and mixed with some Formapelitic intraclasts. Microhummocky cross-stratification occurs a little below the top of the bed. The PRU2 bed is classified as ooidbivalve rudstone[approximately] (~5 cm thick), where all shells are disarticulated and fragmented, showing dense packing. The bivalves probably inhabited a muddy substrate and were mixed (as parautochtonous and allochthonous bioclasts) with ooids during high-energy storm events, including posterior shell displacement as a result of bioturbation. Thus, the calcareous beds represent amalgamated proximal tempestites with a complex taphonomic history, strong temporal/spatial mixing of bioclasts and limited paleoecological resolution. They are a typical example of shell beds generated in a huge epeiric sea, which was not necessarily connected to the ocean and where very low depositional-slope gradient, very slow subsidence and minimum sediment accommodation space caused frequent sediment reworking by storm related processes.

Heat transfer in packed beds: experimental evaluation of one-phase water flow

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Unusual early morning development of the equatorial anomaly in the Brazilian sector during the Halloween magnetic storm

The solar events that occurred at the end of October 2003 gave rise to very strong geomagnetic disturbances that peaked twice with Dst values reaching -345 nT around 0000 UT on 30 October and -400 nT around 2300 UT, on the same day. Disturbances in several ionospheric parameters were observed over Brazil. This work will focus on the ionospheric response to the initial westward prompt penetration electric field and on the strong intensification of the equatorial ionization anomaly that occurred because of the electric field polarity reversal that followed in the early morning hours of 29 October. The F layer peak height over the equator first decreased under the strong prompt penetration westward electric field, which was followed by significant height increase under eastward electric field. We have used Sheffield University Plasmasphere Ionosphere Model (SUPIM) with an intensified westward disturbed electric field in the presunrise hours, presumably due to prompt penetration from the magnetosphere, in order to study the effect of such a field in the ionosphere. The simulation results showed that prompt penetration of magnetospheric electric fields of westward polarity to the nightside equatorial region seems to be the most probable cause of the initial F layer height decreases. The intensification of the equatorial ionization anomaly and the unusual enhancement on F layer peak density, which was not modeled by the SUPIM, are explained as caused by the strong eastward electric field that followed the initial phase in combination with a highly variable disturbed meridional/transequatorial wind system as inferred from the F2 layer peak height variations. The highly dynamic wind pattern, with a short-term response (2-4 hours), is compatible with the predictions of some previous theoretical model calculations reported in the literature.

A STORM* environment for building multimedia presentations

This paper describes an environment for constructing multimedia applications which are used to present different multimedia database objects in accordance with spatiotemporal constraints and from different sources. The main contribution of this paper is to propose an environment which integrates both a modelling case tool and an object-oriented database system.