Migrant networks and migrant intentions to return

Social ties are potentially an important determinant of migrants’ intention to return to their home country, and yet this topic has not been addressed in the existing economics literature on international migration. This study examines the absolute and relative importance of migrant social networks both at destination and at origin. We base our research on experimental data from Batista and Narciso (2013)1. By defining networks according to different characteristics of their members and migrant return intentions with respect to three different time horizons, we are able to dissect the network effect into its components. After controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and reverse causality biases we find that network at home seems to be the most important determinant of the migrant’s intention to return home within five and ten years.

Introducing spin-off stocks into the NSP’s risk parity strategy

Field lab: Nova Student Portfolio

The impact of credit conditions on market liquidity – a case for European stock markets

The recent financial crisis has drawn the attention of researchers and regulators to the importance of liquidity for stock market stability and efficiency. The ability of market-makers and investors to provide liquidity is constrained by the willingness of financial institutions to supply funding capital. This paper sheds light on the liquidity linkages between the Central Bank, Monetary Financial Institutions and market-makers as crucial elements to the well-functioning of markets. Results suggest the existence of causality between credit conditions and stock market liquidity for the Eurozone between 2003 and 2015. Similar evidence is found for the UK during the post-crisis period. Keywords: stock

Microstructural changes befor macroeconomic announcements: Predictability of economic surprises in the U.S. market

Flow of new information is what produces price changes, understanding if the market is unbalanced is fundamental to know how much inventory market makers should keep during an important economic release. After identifying which economic indicators impact the S&P and 10 year Treasuries. The Volume Synchronized Probability of Information-Based Trading (VPIN) will be used as a predictability measure. The results point to some predictability power over economic surprises of the VPIN metric, mainly when calculated using the S&P. This finding appears to be supported when analysing depth imbalance before economic releases. Inferior results were achieved when using treasuries. The final aim of this study is to fill the gap between microstructural changes and macroeconomic events.

MarketOpolis: A market simulation based on investors decisions

This study aims to replicate Apple’s stock market movement by modeling major investment profiles and investors. The present model recreates a live exchange to forecast any predictability in stock price variation, knowing how investors act when it concerns investment decisions. This methodology is particularly relevant if, just by observing historical prices and knowing the tendencies in other players’ behavior, risk-adjusted profits can be made. Empirical research made in the academia shows that abnormal returns are hardly consistent without a clear idea of who is in the market in a given moment and the correspondent market shares. Therefore, even when knowing investors’ individual investment profiles, it is not clear how they affect aggregate markets.

Trading the changes of stock market index composition: Evidence from European markets

This paper studies the changes in European stock market indexes composition from 1995 to 2015. It was found that there are mixed price effects producing abnormal returns around the effective replacement of added and deleted stocks. The price pressure hypothesis seems to hold for added stocks in some indexes but not for deleted stocks as there is not a clear inversion of behaviour after the replacement. Finally, the building and back testing of a trading strategy aiming to capture some of those abnormal returns shows it yields a Sharpe Ratio of 1.4 and generates an annualised alpha of 11%.

Hybrid investment strategy active portfolio management – US stock market

This thesis aims to develop an alternative active managed portfolio strategy based on companies‟ Fundamental and Technical Analysis and analyze its finals results. There is a big distinction between the two approaches and the main objective is to understand if it is possible to take advantage of both. With this in mind a Hybrid investment strategy for the US stock market, due to its dimension and liquidity, which was able to outperform the S&P 500 index, the benchmark, during both Bear and Bull Markets between 2000 and 2015.

Return on assets in the Tobacco Industry analysis of the four main Tobacco Manufacturers

This paper studies operating profitability drivers in the Four Main Tobacco Manufacturers for the period 2004-2014. The operating profitability is analyzed as return on assets (ROA) based on the DuPont Extended Model breakdown in degree of operational risk, gross sales margin and assets turnover. The sources of ROA are market share and price strategies appraised through the drivers: firm-size, global value and strategic choices. Using consolidated data, results suggest that firm-size and global value holds a positive relationship with ROA. Also innovation through less harmful tobacco products can lead to better ROA despite no correlation between R&D and ROA.

Equity offerings, stock price crash risk, and the impact of securities regulation: international evidence

We examine whether earnings manipulation around seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) is associated with an increase in the likelihood of a stock price crash post-issue and test whether the enactment of securities regulations attenuate the relation between SEOs and crash risk. Empirical evidence documents that managerial tendency to conceal bad news increases the likelihood of a stock price crash (Jin and Myers, 2006; Hutton, Marcus, and Tehranian, 2009). We test this hypothesis using a sample of firms from 29 EU countries that enacted the Market Abuse Directive (MAD). Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that equity issuers that engage in earnings management experience a significant increase in crash risk post-SEO relative to control groups of non-issuers; this effect is stronger for equity issuers with poor information environments. In addition, our findings show a significant decline in crash risk post-issue after the enactment of MAD that is stronger for firms that actively manage earnings. This decline in post-issue crash risk is more effective in countries with high ex-ante institutional quality and enforcement. These results suggest that the implementation of MAD helps to mitigate managers’ ability to manipulate earnings around SEOs.

Earnings management and stock price crashes post-crossdelisting

We test whether cross-delisted firms from the major U.S. stock exchanges experience an increase in crash risk associated with earnings management. Consistent with our prediction, we find that earnings management have a greater positive impact on stock price crash risk post-cross-delisting when compared to a sample of still cross-listed firms. Moreover, our results suggest that this effect is more pronounced for crossdelisted firms from countries with weaker investor protection and poorer quality of their information environment. We further examine whether managers’ ability to manipulate earnings increases post-cross-delisting around seasoned equity offerings. Our evidence shows that cross-delisted firms that engage in earnings management to inflate reported earnings prior to a seasoned equity offering are more likely to observe a subsequent stock price crash.

Post-operating performance of cross-delisted firms from U.S. stock exchanges

We investigate the long-term performance of cross-delisted firms from U.S. stock markets. Using a sample of foreign firms listed and delisted from U.S. stock exchange markets over 2000-2012, we examine the operating performance and the long-run stock returns performance of firms post-cross-delisting. Our results suggest that cross-delisted firms have less growth opportunities than matched cross-listed firms in the long run. Moreover, firms that cross-delist after the passage of Rule 12h-6 of 2007 exhibit a significant decline in operating performance. In contrast, before the adoption of the Rule 12h-6, cross-delisted firms seem to be affected by the cost of a U.S. listing in the precross -delisting period. In addition, we provide evidence that cross-delisted firms underperform their cross-listed peers; cross-delisted firms experience negative average abnormal returns, especially in the post-delisting period.

Improving buildings energy performance: comparison between simple payback period and life cycle costs analysis

The building sector is one of the Europeâ s main energy consumer, making buildings an important target for a wiser energy use, improving indoor comfort conditions and reducing the energy consumption. To achieve the European Union targets for energy consumption and carbon reductions it is crucial to act in new, but also in existing buildings, which constitute the majority of the building stock. In existing buildings, the significant improvement of their efficiency requires important investments. Therefore, costs are a major concern in the decision making process and the analysis of the cost effectiveness of the interventions is an important path in the guidance for the selection of the different renovation scenarios. The Portuguese thermal legislation considers the simple payback method for the calculations of the time for the return of the investment. However, this method does not take into consideration inflation, cash flows and cost of capital, as well as the future costs of energy and the building elements lifetime as it happens in a life cycle cost analysis. In order to understand the impact of the economic analysis method used in the choice of the renovation measures, a case study has been analysed using simple payback calculations and life cycle costs analysis. Overall results show that less far-reaching renovation measures are indicated when using the simple payback calculations which may be leading to solutions less cost-effective in a long run perspective.

Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns in the French stock market

Dissertação de mestrado em Finanças

The real economic effects of cross-delistingfrom the united states: evidence on post-operating performance, financial constraints and stock crash risk

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências Empresariais.

Data for the sustainable management of an emerging fishery: Age, growth and stock structure of Atlantic saury Scomberesox saurus saurus (Walbaum), in the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean

Almost half of Ireland’s commercial stocks face overexploitation. As traditional species decrease in abundance and become less profitable, the industry is increasingly turning to alternate species. Atlantic saury (Scomberesox saurus saurus (Walbaum)) has been identified as a potential species for exploitation. Very little information is available on its biology or population dynamics, especially for Irish waters. This thesis aims to obtain sound scientific data, which will help to ensure that a future Atlantic saury fishery can be sustainably managed. The research has produced valuable data, some of which contradicts previous studies. Growth of Atlantic saury measured using otolith microstructure is found to be more than twice that previously calculated from annual structures on scales and otoliths. This results in a significant reduction of the expected life span from five to about two years. Investigation of maturity stage at age indicates that Atlantic saury will reproduce for the first time at age one and will survive for one or at most two reproduction seasons. It is concluded that a future Irish fishery will target mostly fish prior to their first reproduction. Finally the thesis gives some insights into the population structure of Atlantic saury, by analysis of otolith morphometric. Significant differences are detected between Northeastern Atlantic and western Mediterranean Sea specimens of the 0+ age class (less than one year old). The implications of these results for the management of an emerging fishery are discussed.