The Great Game around Turkmenistan. OSW Point of View, August 2008

The rise of a new leader of the state of Turkmenistan – President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, who became ruler of the central Asian state after the 21-year rule of Saparmurad Niyazov, the self-proclaimed Turkmenbashi, who died on December 21, 2006 – has initiated changes in Turkmenistan’s political life. The new president has broken with the previous policy of self-isolation, and has directed the country towards openness to the outside world. Opportunities have thereby arisen for competitors in the ‘Great Game’, to gain political influence in Turkmenistan and access to hitherto unexploited Turkmen deposits of gas and oil. A new stage in the Great Game, which has been played for influence in Central Asia and control of access to its energy resources for many years, can thus be said to have been launched, and Turkmenistan has become the main setting for it. The major actors involved are Russia, the United States, China and the European Union.

Nagorno-Karabkh - conflict unfreezing. OSW Commentary No. 65, 2011-10-26

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh poses the greatest challenge to the security and stability of the Southern Caucasus. Although a ceasefire has been in place and a peace process under way since 1994, there is growing concern that the threat of the resumption of military action is growing. Proof of that is provided by, for example, the arms race dictated by Azerbaijan and its use of war rhetoric. A major factor, in addition to Azerbaijan’s increasing potential and ambitions, which is destabilising the situation concerning Karabakh seems to be the changing geopolitical situation in this region. Although the outbreak of a new war over Nagorno-Karabakh seems unlikely (as this would be risky to all the actors involved) within the next year, if the current trends continue, this will be difficult to avoid in the future. A further increase in the tension, and especially a military conflict (whatever its outcome), will lead to deep changes in the situation in the Southern Caucasus and in the policies of the countries which are active in this region.

Southern Gas Corridor managed by Azerbaijan and Turkey. OSW Commentary No. 86, 2012-07-18

The Southern Gas Corridor is a European Commission initiative with the aim of facilitating the diversification of the routes and sources of gas imported into Europe in the hope of reducing the EU’s dependence on Russia. Although the Southern Gas Corridor – alongside the EU’s flagship Nabucco project, which constitutes a part of the Corridor – was originally conceived as a means of furthering the interests of the West (officially the EU but in practice also the US), the implementation of the project has become possible almost exclusively thanks to measures taken by Azerbaijan and Turkey. Consequently, a project which the EU had hoped would protect its political interests has indirectly given Azerbaijan and Turkey considerable influence over the EU, since it is those two countries that have effectively begun to define the shape of the Southern Corridor. This became particularly clear when the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) agreement was signed on 26 June 2012. If the EU wishes to ensure that the implementation of the Southern Gas Corridor project retains at least some of its original design, Brussels has little choice but to take into account the preferences of Azerbaijan and Turkey at the expense of its own original plans.

Turkey's economy: a story of success with an uncertain future. OSW Commentary No. 120, 2013-11-05

In the decade since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power, Turkey’s economy has become synonymous with success and well-implemented reforms. Economic development has been the basis of both socio-political stability inside the country and of an ambitious foreign policy agenda pursued by the AKP. However, the risks associated with a series of unresolved issues are becoming increasingly apparent. These include the country’s current account deficit, its over-reliance on short-term external financing, and unfinished reforms, for example of the education sector. This leaves Turkey exposed to over-dependence on investors, especially from the West. Consequently, Ankara has become a hostage of its own image as an economically successful state with a stable socio-political system. Any changes to this image would cause capital flight, as exemplified by the outflow of portfolio investment1 and an increase in the cost of external debt2 that followed the nationwide protests over the proposed closure of Gezi Park last summer. In addition, Turkey remains vulnerable to potential changes in investor sentiment towards emerging markets.

The Eurasian Economic Union – more political, less economic. OSW Commentary Number 157/20.01.2015

The Eurasian Economic Union is undoubtedly the most comprehensive form of economic integration of the post-Soviet countries since the break-up of the Soviet Union. However, the way in which the integration process has been unfolding, as well as Russia’s aggressive policy over the last year, are indications that the EEU has become primarily a political project, and the importance of its economic aspects has eroded. This has triggered a change in the way Kazakhstan and Belarus treat the EEU. Initially, the two countries viewed integration as an opportunity for the development of genuine economic co-operation. However, Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the conflict in Ukraine have revealed the real significance of the EEU project – as a tool to reinforce Russian influence in the post-Soviet area and isolate the post-Soviet countries from the West and China. While the Kremlin presents the EEU as the Eurasian equivalent of the European Union, the project is in reality an imitation of integration. The reasons for this include the nature of the political systems in the participating countries, which are authoritarian, prone to instrumentalise law, and affected by systemic corruption; the aggressive policy that Russia has been pursuing over the last year; and Russia’s dominant role in defining the shape of the EEU. The EEU appears to be based on forceful integration, and is becoming less and less economically attractive for its member countries other than Russia. Moreover, it is clearly assuming a political dimension that those other member countries perceive as dangerous. For these reasons, its functioning will depend on the power and position of Russia. In the longer term it is likely that the other member states will try to ‘sham’ and delay closer integration within the EEU. This means that if Russia becomes politically and economically weaker, the EEU may evolve into an increasingly dysfunctional organisation – a development that will be reinforced by the low standards of legal culture in its member states and their reluctance to integrate. Should Russia’s power increase, the EEU will become an effective instrument of Russian dominance in the area of the former USSR.

The Southern Gas Corridor. The Azerbaijani-Turkish project becomes part of the game between Russia and the EU. OSW POINT OF VIEW 53, 2015-08-20

The Southern Gas Corridor is a system of three complementary gas pipeline projects controlled by Azerbaijan and Turkey, each at a different stage of implementation. The crisis in EU-Russia relations over Ukraine has made the two players interested in the Southern Gas Corridor once again. Brussels views it as an opportunity for a genuine diversification of gas supplies and a way to reinforce its position against Russia. In turn, Moscow’s proposal for Turkey and Greece to join the Turkish Stream gas pipeline project changes the energy map of the regional projects, which indirectly affects the Southern Gas Corridor. This has raised concern in Azerbaijan, which has been making efforts to manoeuvre between the interests of Moscow and Brussels.

Light sheet fluorescence microscopy for in situ cell interaction analysis in mouse lymph nodes.

Reactive lymph nodes (LNs) are sites where pMHC-loaded dendritic cells (DCs) interact with rare cognate T cells, leading to their clonal expansion. While DC interactions with T cell subsets critically shape the ensuing immune response, surprisingly little is known on their spatial orchestration at physiologically T cell low precursor frequencies. Light sheet fluorescence microscopy and one of its implementations, selective plane illumination microscopy (SPIM), is a powerful method to obtain precise spatial information of entire organs of 0.5-10mm diameter, the size range of murine LNs. Yet, its usefulness for immunological research has thus far not been comprehensively explored. Here, we have tested and defined protocols that preserve fluorescent protein function during lymphoid tissue clearing required for SPIM. Reconstructions of SPIM-generated 3D data sets revealed that calibrated numbers of adoptively transferred T cells and DCs are successfully detected at a single cell level within optically cleared murine LNs. Finally, we define parameters to quantify specific interactions between antigen-specific T cells and pMHC-bearing DCs in murine LNs. In sum, our studies describe the successful application of light sheet fluorescence microscopy to immunologically relevant tissues.

Age and isotopes in bottom sediments from Core VER-99-1-St2, Baikal Lake

A simple, reliable, and efficient method has been elaborated for direct determination of isotopic composition of authigenic uranium in siliceous lacustrine sediments. The method is based on studying kinetics of selective extraction of authigenic uranium from sediments by weak solutions of ammonium hydrocarbonate followed by ICP-MS analysis of nuclides. To estimate contamination of authigenic uranium by terrigenous one contents of 232Th and some other clastogenic elements in the extracts were measured simultaneously. Selectivity of extraction of authigenic uranium from the sediments treated with 1% NH4HCO3 solution appeared to be no worse than 99%. The method was applied to analysis of isotopic composition of authigenic uranium at several key horizons of the earlier dated core from the Baikal Lake. Measurements directly show that 234U/238U values in Baikal water varied depending on climate, which contradicts existing hypotheses. Measured 234U/238U ratios in water of the paleo-Baikal match corresponding values reconstructed from isotopic data for total uranium in the sediments on supposition that U/Th ratio is constant in terrigenous fraction of the sediments. Direct experimental determination of total and authigenic nuclides in sediments enhances potentiality of the method for 234U-230Th dating of non-carbonate lacustrine sediments including those from the Baikal Lake within intervals corresponding to periods of glaciation, when sediments were rich in terrigenous components. Portions of terrigenous and authigenic uranium are well separated and we can study variability of sources of terrigenous matter and refine the earlier model for reconstructing climate humidity in the East Siberia.

Age model and ostracod countings from IODP Site 306-U1314

We present a detailed study of glacial/interglacial deep sea benthic ostracod assemblage variability at IODP Site U1314 (subpolar North Atlantic) in relation to the history of ice-rafting events and changes in deep ocean circulation over the past 170 ky. Our records of ostracod diversity, abundance and dissolution and sediment properties (IRD and CaCO3) show an excellent correspondence to high amplitude orbital and millennial variability observed in the climate records (d13C and d18O) from neighboring deep water sites, suggesting that the benthic meiofauna fluctuates synchronously with the prevailing oceanographic conditions (surface ocean conditions, deep ocean circulation and water temperature and food flux). Krithe (dominant), Argilloecia and Cytheropteron are the most abundant and diverse genera in association with Rockallia enigmatica. Three ostracod assemblages are recognized. The genera Pennyella, Argilloecia, Pelecocythere, Ambocythere, Pseudobosquetina, Bradleya and Nannocythere are associated with interglacials and interstadials, and possibly reflect increased flux of food to the sediments and more vigorous NADW formation. A transitional assemblage composed of species of Cytheropteron, Xestoleberis and Eucythere is restricted to climatic transitions and indicate moderate environmental conditions and seasonal productivity. A glacial/stadial assemblage is characterized by a temporal predominance of either intermediate-depth and shallow water Arctic/subarctic species (belonging to Cytheropteron, Polycope, Pedicythere, Swainocythere, Cluthia, Heterocyprideis, Elofsonella and Finmarchinella) or abyssal North Atlantic ostracods (Bythocythere, Dutoitella, Bathycythere and Bythocypris). The influx of high latitude taxa can be partially explained by ice-rafting, but may also represent a shift of the location of intermediate and deep water convection to the area south of Iceland. Therefore the combination of species characteristic of different watermasses during glacials may reflect shifts in the influence of high nutrient southern source water (e.g. AABW) vs. low nutrient GNAIW during glacials.

The European Narcolepsy Network (EU-NN) database.

Narcolepsy with cataplexy is a rare disease with an estimated prevalence of 0.02% in European populations. Narcolepsy shares many features of rare disorders, in particular the lack of awareness of the disease with serious consequences for healthcare supply. Similar to other rare diseases, only a few European countries have registered narcolepsy cases in databases of the International Classification of Diseases or in registries of the European health authorities. A promising approach to identify disease-specific adverse health effects and needs in healthcare delivery in the field of rare diseases is to establish a distributed expert network. A first and important step is to create a database that allows collection, storage and dissemination of data on narcolepsy in a comprehensive and systematic way. Here, the first prospective web-based European narcolepsy database hosted by the European Narcolepsy Network is introduced. The database structure, standardization of data acquisition and quality control procedures are described, and an overview provided of the first 1079 patients from 18 European specialized centres. Due to its standardization this continuously increasing data pool is most promising to provide a better insight into many unsolved aspects of narcolepsy and related disorders, including clear phenotype characterization of subtypes of narcolepsy, more precise epidemiological data and knowledge on the natural history of narcolepsy, expectations about treatment effects, identification of post-marketing medication side-effects, and will contribute to improve clinical trial designs and provide facilities to further develop phase III trials.