A method for systematically pooling data in very early stage construction price forecasting

Client owners usually need an estimate or forecast of their likely building costs in advance of detailed design in order to confirm the financial feasibility of their projects. Because of their timing in the project life cycle, these early stage forecasts are characterized by the minimal amount of information available concerning the new (target) project to the point that often only its size and type are known. One approach is to use the mean contract sum of a sample, or base group, of previous projects of a similar type and size to the project for which the estimate is needed. Bernoulli’s law of large numbers implies that this base group should be as large as possible. However, increasing the size of the base group inevitably involves including projects that are less and less similar to the target project. Deciding on the optimal number of base group projects is known as the homogeneity or pooling problem. A method of solving the homogeneity problem is described involving the use of closed form equations to compare three different sampling arrangements of previous projects for their simulated forecasting ability by a cross-validation method, where a series of targets are extracted, with replacement, from the groups and compared with the mean value of the projects in the base groups. The procedure is then demonstrated with 450 Hong Kong projects (with different project types: Residential, Commercial centre, Car parking, Social community centre, School, Office, Hotel, Industrial, University and Hospital) clustered into base groups according to their type and size.

Pilot study of an individualised early post partum intervention to increase physical activity in women with previous gestational diabetes

Background: Whilst the benefits of physical activity in preventing progression from impaired glucose tolerance to overt diabetes in older adults are well recognised, it is not clear which strategies may prevent progression to overt diabetes in women with recent gestational diabetes. We sought to devise and pilot test a convenient, home based exercise program with telephone support, suited to the early post partum period. Twenty eight women with recent gestational diabetes were enrolled six weeks post partum into a 12 week randomised controlled trial of Usual Care ("UC" Controls (n= 13)) vs. Supported Care ("SC" individualised exercise program with regular telephone support (n= 15)). Findings: Baseline characteristics for the whole cohort at six weeks post partum (Mean ± SD) were Age 33 ± 4 years, Weight 80 ± 20 kg and Body Mass Index (BMI) 30.0 ± 9.7 kg / m2. The primary outcome, planned physical activity, increased by Median (Range) 60 (0-540) mins/wk in the SC group vs. 0 (0-580) mins/wk in the UC group (p = 0.234, Mann Whitney U test). The change in planned physical activity predominantly comprised planned walking. Body weight, BMI, waist circumference, % body fat (measured by bioimpedance), fasting glucose and insulin did not change significantly over time in either group. Conclusions: The intervention designed to increase physical activity in post partum women with previous gestational diabetes was feasible. However, no evidence to suggest that this type of program provides any measurable improvement in metabolic or biometric parameters over a three month post partum follow up was observed.

ACE research vignette 024 : New firm formation and job creation by type of firm an type of region.

This series of research vignettes is aimed at sharing current and interesting research findings from our team of international Entrepreneurship researchers. This vignette, written by Mr. Darren Kavanagh and Professor Per Davidsson, takes a closer look at job creation by new firms.

Paleomagnetic data support Early Permian age for the Abor Volcanics in the lower Siang Valley, NE India; significance for Gondwana-related break-up models

Confusion exists as to the age of the Abor Volcanics of NE India. Some consider the unit to have been emplaced in the Early Permian, others the Early Eocene, a difference of ∼230 million years. The divergence in opinion is significant because fundamentally different models explaining the geotectonic evolution of India depend on the age designation of the unit. Paleomagnetic data reported here from several exposures in the type locality of the formation in the lower Siang Valley indicate that steep dipping primary magnetizations (mean = 72.7 ± 6.2°, equating to a paleo-latitude of 58.1°) are recorded in the formation. These are only consistent with the unit being of Permian age, possibly Artinskian based on a magnetostratigraphic argument. Plate tectonic models for this time consistently show the NE corner of the sub-continent >50°S; in the Early Eocene it was just north of the equator, which would have resulted in the unit recording shallow directions. The mean declination is counter-clockwise rotated by ∼94°, around half of which can be related to the motion of the Indian block; the remainder is likely due local Himalayan-age thrusting in the Eastern Syntaxis. Several workers have correlated the Abor Volcanics with broadly coeval mafic volcanic suites in Oman, NE Pakistan–NW India and southern Tibet–Nepal, which developed in response to the Cimmerian block peeling-off eastern Gondwana in the Early-Middle Permian, but we believe there are problems with this model. Instead, we suggest that the Abor basalts relate to India–Antarctica/India–Australia extension that was happening at about the same time. Such an explanation best accommodates the relevant stratigraphical and structural data (present-day position within the Himalayan thrust stack), as well as the plate tectonic model for Permian eastern Gondwana.

An investigation of the C77G and C772T variations within the human protein tyrosine phosphatase receptor type C gene for association with multiple sclerosis in an Australian population

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a common cause of neurological disability in young adults. The disease generally manifests in early to middle adulthood and causes various neurological deficits. Autoreactive T lymphocytes and their associated antigens have long been presumed important features of MS pathogenesis. The Protein tyrosine phosphatase receptor type C gene (PTPRC) encodes the T-cell receptor CD45. Variations within PTPRC have been previously associated with diseases of autoimmune origin such as type 1 diabetes mellitus and Graves' disease. We set out to investigate two variants within the PTPRC gene, C77G and C772T in subjects with MS and matched healthy controls to determine whether significant differences exist in these markers in an Australian population. We employed high resolution melt analysis (HRM) and restriction length polymorphism (RFLP) techniques to determine genotypic and allelic frequencies. Our study found no significant difference between frequencies for PTPRC C77G by either genotype (Χ2 = 0.65, P = 0.72) or allele (Χ2 = 0.48, P = 0.49). Similarly, we did not find evidence to suggest an association between PTPRC C772T by genotype (Χ2 = 1.06, P = 0.59) or allele (Χ2 = 0.20, P = 0.66). Linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis showed strong linkage disequilibrium between the two tested markers (D' = 0.9970, SD = 0.0385). This study reveals no evidence to suggest that these markers are associated with MS in the tested Australian Caucasian population. Although the PTPRC gene has a significant role in regulating CD4+ and CD8+ autoreactive T-cells, interferon-beta responsiveness, and potentially other important processes, our study does not support a role for the two tested variants of this gene in MS susceptibility in the Australian population.

TLR2, but Not TLR4, is required for effective host defence against Chlamydia respiratory tract infection in early life

Chlamydia pneumoniae commonly causes respiratory tract infections in children, and epidemiological investigations strongly link infection to the pathogenesis of asthma. The immune system in early life is immature and may not respond appropriately to pathogens. Toll-like receptor (TLR)2 and 4 are regarded as the primary pattern recognition receptors that sense bacteria, however their contribution to innate and adaptive immunity in early life remains poorly defined. We investigated the role of TLR2 and 4 in the induction of immune responses to Chlamydia muridarum respiratory infection, in neonatal wild-type (Wt) or TLR2-deficient (−/−), 4−/− or 2/4−/− BALB/c mice. Wt mice had moderate disease and infection. TLR2−/− mice had more severe disease and more intense and prolonged infection compared to other groups. TLR4−/− mice were asymptomatic. TLR2/4−/− mice had severe early disease and persistent infection, which resolved thereafter consistent with the absence of symptoms in TLR4−/− mice. Wt mice mounted robust innate and adaptive responses with an influx of natural killer (NK) cells, neutrophils, myeloid (mDCs) and plasmacytoid (pDCs) dendritic cells, and activated CD4+ and CD8+ T-cells into the lungs. Wt mice also had effective production of interferon (IFN)γ in the lymph nodes and lung, and proliferation of lymph node T-cells. TLR2−/− mice had more intense and persistent innate (particularly neutrophil) and adaptive cell responses and IL-17 expression in the lung, however IFNγ responses and T-cell proliferation were reduced. TLR2/4−/− mice had reduced innate and adaptive responses. Most importantly, neutrophil phagocytosis was impaired in the absence of TLR2. Thus, TLR2 expression, particularly on neutrophils, is required for effective control of Chlamydia respiratory infection in early life. Loss of control of infection leads to enhanced but ineffective TLR4-mediated inflammatory responses that prolong disease symptoms. This indicates that TLR2 agonists may be beneficial in the treatment of early life Chlamydia infections and associated diseases.

Constitutive production of IL-13 promotes early-life Chlamydia respiratory infection and allergic airway disease

Deleterious responses to pathogens during infancy may contribute to infection and associated asthma. Chlamydia respiratory infections in early life are common causes of pneumonia and lead to reduced lung function and asthma. We investigated the role of interleukin-13 (IL-13) in promoting early-life Chlamydia respiratory infection, infection-induced airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR), and severe allergic airway disease (AAD). Infected infant Il13−/− mice had reduced infection, inflammation, and mucus-secreting cell hyperplasia. Surprisingly, infection of wild-type (WT) mice did not increase IL-13 production but reduced IL-13Rα2 decoy receptor levels compared with sham-inoculated controls. Infection of WT but not Il13−/− mice induced persistent AHR. Infection and associated pathology were restored in infected Il13−/− mice by reconstitution with IL-13. Stat6−/− mice were also largely protected. Neutralization of IL-13 during infection prevented subsequent infection-induced severe AAD. Thus, early-life Chlamydia respiratory infection reduces IL-13Rα2 production, which may enhance the effects of constitutive IL-13 and promote more severe infection, persistent AHR, and AAD.

Typing early Australian healthcare-associated MRSA : confirmation of major clones and emergence of ST1-MRSA-IV and novel ST2249-MRSA-III

AIMS: To investigate the evolutionary origins of Australian healthcare-associated (HCA) methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) strains from a panel of historical isolates typed using current genotyping techniques. METHODS: Nineteen MRSA isolates from 1965 to 1981 were examined and antibiotic susceptibility profiles determined. Genetic characterisation included real-time (RT) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays to identify single nucleotide polymorhpism (SNP) clonal complexes (SNP CC) and sequence type (SNP ST), multi locus sequence typing (MLST) and staphylococcal chromosomal cassette mec typing. RESULTS: All SNP CC30 isolates belonged to a novel sequence type, ST2249. All SNP CC239 isolates were confirmed as ST239-MRSA-III, except for a new single locus variant of ST239, ST2275. A further new type, ST2276, was identified. CONCLUSIONS: The earliest MRSA examined from 1965 was confirmed as ST250-MRSA-I, consistent with archaic European types. Identification of ST1-MRSA-IV in 1981 is the earliest appearance of this clinically important lineage which manifested in Australia and the United States in the 1990s. A previously unknown multi-resistant clone, ST2249-MRSA-III, was identified from 1973. Gentamicin resistance first appeared in this novel strain from 1976 and not ST239 as previously suspected. Thus, ST2249 was present in the earliest phase of the HCA MRSA epidemic in eastern Australia and was perhaps related to the emergence of the globally epidemic strain ST239.

Corneal confocal microscopy detects early nerve regeneration in diabetic neuropathy after simultaneous pancreas and kidney transplantation

Diabetic neuropathy is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. To date, limited data in subjects with impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes demonstrate nerve fiber repair after intervention. This may reflect a lack of efficacy of the interventions but may also reflect difficulty of the tests currently deployed to adequately assess nerve fiber repair, particularly in short-term studies. Corneal confocal microscopy (CCM) represents a novel noninvasive means to quantify nerve fiber damage and repair. Fifteen type 1 diabetic patients undergoing simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplantation (SPK) underwent detailed assessment of neurologic deficits, quantitative sensory testing (QST), electrophysiology, skin biopsy, corneal sensitivity, and CCM at baseline and at 6 and 12 months after successful SPK. At baseline, diabetic patients had a significant neuropathy compared with control subjects. After successful SPK there was no significant change in neurologic impairment, neurophysiology, QST, corneal sensitivity, and intraepidermal nerve fiber density (IENFD). However, CCM demonstrated significant improvements in corneal nerve fiber density, branch density, and length at 12 months. Normalization of glycemia after SPK shows no significant improvement in neuropathy assessed by the neurologic deficits, QST, electrophysiology, and IENFD. However, CCM shows a significant improvement in nerve morphology, providing a novel noninvasive means to establish early nerve repair that is missed by currently advocated assessment techniques.

2nd ESMO consensus conference on lung cancer : early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer consensus on diagnosis, treatment and follow-up

To complement the existing treatment guidelines for all tumour types, ESMO organises consensus conferences to focus on specific issues in each type of tumour. The 2nd ESMO Consensus Conference on Lung Cancer was held on 11-12 May 2013 in Lugano. A total of 35 experts met to address several questions on non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in each of four areas: pathology and molecular biomarkers, first-line/second and further lines in advanced disease, earlystage disease and locally advanced disease. For each question, recommendations were made including reference to the grade of recommendation and level of evidence. This consensus paper focuses on early-stage disease. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved.

Can skin cancer prevention and early detection be improved via mobile phone text messaging? a randomised, attention-control trial.

Objective. To test the impact of a theory-based, SMS (text message)-delivered behavioural intervention (Healthy Text) targeting sun protection or skin self-examination behaviours compared to attention-control. Method. Overall, 546 participants aged 18–42 years were randomised using a computer-generated number list to the skin self-examination (N = 176), sun protection (N = 187), or attention-control (N = 183) text messages group. Each group received 21 text messages about their assigned topic over 12 months (12 weekly messages for three months, then monthly messages for the next nine months). Data was collected via telephone survey at baseline, three-, and 12-months across Queensland from January 2012 to August 2013. Results. One year after baseline, the sun protection (mean change 0.12; P = 0.030) and skin self-examination groups (mean change 0.12; P = 0.035) had significantly greater improvement in their sun protection habits (SPH) index compared to the attention-control group (reference mean change 0.02). The increase in the proportion of participants who reported any skin self-examination from baseline to 12 months was significantly greater in the skin self-examination intervention group (103/163; 63%; P < 0.001) than the sun protection (83/173; 48%), or attention-control (65/165; 36%) groups. There was no significant effect of the intervention for participants who self-reported whole-body skin self-examination, sun tanning behaviour, or sunburn behaviours. Conclusion. The Healthy Text intervention was effective in inducing significant improvements in sun protection and any type of skin self-examination behaviours.

Independent distractor frequency and age-of-acquisition dffects in picture-word interference: FMRI evidence for post-lexical and lexical accounts according to distractor type

In two fMRI experiments, participants named pictures with superimposed distractors that were high or low in frequency or varied in terms of age of acquisition. Pictures superimposed with low-frequency words were named more slowly than those superimposed with high-frequency words, and late-acquired words interfered with picture naming to a greater extent than early-acquired words. The distractor frequency effect (Experiment 1) was associated with increased activity in left premotor and posterior superior temporal cortices, consistent with the operation of an articulatory response buffer and verbal selfmonitoring system. Conversely, the distractor age-of-acquisition effect (Experiment 2) was associated with increased activity in the left middle and posterior middle temporal cortex, consistent with the operation of lexical level processes such as lemma and phonological word form retrieval. The spatially dissociated patterns of activity across the two experiments indicate that distractor effects in picture-word interference may occur at lexical or postlexical levels of processing in speech production.

Surgical fusion of early onset severe scoliosis increases survival in the child with rett syndrome: A population based study

Introduction. Rett Syndrome is a rare genetic neurodevelopmental disorder usually affecting females. Scoliosis is a common comorbidity and spinal fusion may be recommended if severe. Little is known about long term outcomes. We examined the impact of spinal fusion on survival and risk of severe lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) in Rett Syndrome. Methods Data were ascertained from hospital medical records, the Australian Rett Syndrome Database, a longitudinal and population-based registry of Rett Syndrome cases established in 1993, and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare National Death Index database. An extended Cox regression model was used to estimate the effect of spinal surgery on survival in females who developed severe scoliosis (Cobb angle > 45 degrees). Generalized estimating equation modelling was used to estimate the effect of spinal surgery on the odds of developing severe LRTI. Results Severe scoliosis was identified in 140 cases (60.3%) of whom slightly fewer than half (48.6%) developed scoliosis prior to eight years of age. Scoliosis surgery was performed in 98 (69.0%) of those at a median age of 13 years 3 months (IQR 11 years 5 months – 14 years 10 months). After adjusting for mutation type and age of scoliosis onset, the rate of death was lower in the surgery group (HR 0.30, 95% CI 0.12, 0.74, P = 0.009) compared to those without surgery. Rate of death was particularly reduced for those with early onset scoliosis (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.06, 0.52, P = 0.002). Spinal fusion was not associated with reduction in the occurrence of a severe LRTI overall (OR 0.60, 95%CI 0.27, 1.33, P=0.206) but was associated with a large reduction in odds of severe LRTI among those with early onset scoliosis (OR 0.32, 95%CI 0.11, 0.93, P=0.036). Conclusion With appropriate cautions, spinal fusion confers an advantage to life expectancy in Rett syndrome.

Budesonide and Formoterol Reduce Early Innate Anti-Viral Immune Responses In Vitro

Asthma is a chronic inflammatory airways disease in which respiratory viral infections frequently trigger exacerbations. Current treatment of asthma with combinations of inhaled corticosteroids and long acting beta2 agonists improves asthma control and reduces exacerbations but what impact this might have on innate anti-viral immunity is unclear. We investigated the in vitro effects of asthma drugs on innate anti-viral immunity. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from healthy and asthmatic donors were cultured for 24 hours with the Toll-like receptor 7 agonist, imiquimod, or rhinovirus 16 (RV16) in the presence of budesonide and/or formoterol. Production of proinflammatory cytokines and expression of anti-viral intracellular signalling molecules were measured by ELISA and RT-PCR respectively. In PBMC from healthy donors, budesonide alone inhibited IP-10 and IL-6 production induced by imiquimod in a concentration-dependent manner and the degree of inhibition was amplified when budesonide and formoterol were used in combination. Formoterol alone had little effect on these parameters, except at high concentrations (10−6 M) when IL-6 production increased. In RV16 stimulated PBMC, the combination of budesonide and formoterol inhibited IFNα and IP-10 production in asthmatic as well as healthy donors. Combination of budesonide and formoterol also inhibited RV16-stimulated expression of the type I IFN induced genes myxovirus protein A and 2′, 5′ oligoadenylate synthetise. Notably, RV16 stimulated lower levels of type Myxovirus A and oligoadenylate synthase in PBMC of asthmatics than control donors. These in vitro studies demonstrate that combinations of drugs commonly used in asthma therapy inhibit both early pro-inflammatory cytokines and key aspects of the type I IFN pathway. These findings suggest that budesonide and formoterol curtail excessive inflammation induced by rhinovirus infections in patients with asthma, but whether this inhibits viral clearance in vivo remains to be determined.

Postglacial Early Permian (late Sakmarian-early Artinskian) shallow-marine carbonate deposition along a 2000 km transect from Timor to west Australia

Late Sakmarian to early Artinskian (Early Permian) carbonate deposition was widespread in the marine intracratonic rift basins that extended into the interior of Eastern Gondwana from Timor in the north to the northern Perth Basin in the south. These basins spanned about 20° of paleolatitude (approximately 35°S to 55°S). This study describes the type section of the Maubisse Limestone in Timor-Leste, and compares this unit with carbonate sections in the Canning Basin (Nura Nura Member of the Poole Sandstone), the Southern Carnarvon Basin (Callytharra Formation) and the northern Perth Basin (Fossil Cliff Member of the Holmwood Shale). The carbonate units have no glacial influence and formed part of a major depositional cycle that, in the southern basins, overlies glacially influenced strata and lies a short distance below mudstone containing marine fossils and scattered dropstones (perhaps indicative of sea ice). In the south marine conditions became more restricted and were replaced by coal measures at the top of the depositional sequence. In the north, the carbonate deposits are possibly bryozoan–crinoidal mounds; whereas in the southern basins they form laterally continuous relatively thin beds, deposited on a very low-gradient seafloor, at the tops of shale–limestone parasequences that thicken upward in parasequence sets. All marine deposition within the sequence took place under very shallow (inner neritic) conditions, and the limestones have similar grain composition. Bryozoan and crinoidal debris dominate the grain assemblages and brachiopod shell fragments, foraminifera and ostracod valves are usually common. Tubiphytes ranged as far south as the Southern Carnarvon Basin, albeit rarely, but is more common to the north. Gastropod and bivalve shell debris, echinoid spines, solitary rugose corals and trilobite carapace elements are rare. The uniformity of the grain assemblage and the lack of tropical elements such as larger fusulinid foraminifera, colonial corals or dasycladacean algae indicate temperate marine conditions with only a small increase in temperature to the north. The depositional cycle containing the studied carbonate deposits represents a warmer phase than the preceding glacially influenced Asselian to early Sakmarian interval and the subsequent cool phase of the “mid” Artinskian that is followed by significant warming during the late Artinskian–early Kungurian. The timing of cooler and warmer intervals in the west Australian basins seems out-of-phase with the eastern Australian succession, but this may be a problem of chronostratigraphic miscorrelation due to endemic faunas and palynofloras.