A hybrid model for studying spatial aspects of infectious diseases

We consider a hybrid model, created by coupling a continuum and an agent-based model of infectious disease. The framework of the hybrid model provides a mechanism to study the spread of infection at both the individual and population levels. This approach captures the stochastic spatial heterogeneity at the individual level, which is directly related to deterministic population level properties. This facilitates the study of spatial aspects of the epidemic process. A spatial analysis, involving counting the number of infectious agents in equally sized bins, reveals when the spatial domain is nonhomogeneous.

Environmental and economic evaluation of N fertilizer rates in a maize crop in Italy : a spatial and temporal analysis using crop models

Crop simulation models have the potential to assess the risk associated with the selection of a specific N fertilizer rate, by integrating the effects of soil-crop interactions on crop growth under different pedo-climatic and management conditions. The objective of this study was to simulate the environmental and economic impact (nitrate leaching and N2O emissions) of a spatially variable N fertilizer application in an irrigated maize field in Italy. The validated SALUS model was run with 5 nitrogen rates scenarios, 50, 100, 150, 200, and 250 kg N ha−1, with the latter being the N fertilization adopted by the farmer. The long-term (25 years) simulations were performed on two previously identified spatially and temporally stable zones, a high yielding and low yielding zone. The simulation results showed that N fertilizer rate can be reduced without affecting yield and net return. The marginal net return was on average higher for the high yield zone, with values ranging from 1550 to 2650 € ha−1 for the 200 N and 1485 to 2875 € ha−1 for the 250 N. N leaching varied between 16.4 and 19.3 kg N ha−1 for the 200 N and the 250 N in the high yield zone. In the low yield zone, the 250 N had a significantly higher N leaching. N2O emissions varied between 0.28 kg N2O ha−1 for the 50 kg N ha−1 rate to a maximum of 1.41 kg N2O ha−1 for the 250 kg N ha−1 rate.

An analytical tool that quantifies cellular morphology changes from three-dimensional fluorescence images

The most common software analysis tools available for measuring fluorescence images are for two-dimensional (2D) data that rely on manual settings for inclusion and exclusion of data points, and computer-aided pattern recognition to support the interpretation and findings of the analysis. It has become increasingly important to be able to measure fluorescence images constructed from three-dimensional (3D) datasets in order to be able to capture the complexity of cellular dynamics and understand the basis of cellular plasticity within biological systems. Sophisticated microscopy instruments have permitted the visualization of 3D fluorescence images through the acquisition of multispectral fluorescence images and powerful analytical software that reconstructs the images from confocal stacks that then provide a 3D representation of the collected 2D images. Advanced design-based stereology methods have progressed from the approximation and assumptions of the original model-based stereology(1) even in complex tissue sections(2). Despite these scientific advances in microscopy, a need remains for an automated analytic method that fully exploits the intrinsic 3D data to allow for the analysis and quantification of the complex changes in cell morphology, protein localization and receptor trafficking. Current techniques available to quantify fluorescence images include Meta-Morph (Molecular Devices, Sunnyvale, CA) and Image J (NIH) which provide manual analysis. Imaris (Andor Technology, Belfast, Northern Ireland) software provides the feature MeasurementPro, which allows the manual creation of measurement points that can be placed in a volume image or drawn on a series of 2D slices to create a 3D object. This method is useful for single-click point measurements to measure a line distance between two objects or to create a polygon that encloses a region of interest, but it is difficult to apply to complex cellular network structures. Filament Tracer (Andor) allows automatic detection of the 3D neuronal filament-like however, this module has been developed to measure defined structures such as neurons, which are comprised of dendrites, axons and spines (tree-like structure). This module has been ingeniously utilized to make morphological measurements to non-neuronal cells(3), however, the output data provide information of an extended cellular network by using a software that depends on a defined cell shape rather than being an amorphous-shaped cellular model. To overcome the issue of analyzing amorphous-shaped cells and making the software more suitable to a biological application, Imaris developed Imaris Cell. This was a scientific project with the Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule, which has been developed to calculate the relationship between cells and organelles. While the software enables the detection of biological constraints, by forcing one nucleus per cell and using cell membranes to segment cells, it cannot be utilized to analyze fluorescence data that are not continuous because ideally it builds cell surface without void spaces. To our knowledge, at present no user-modifiable automated approach that provides morphometric information from 3D fluorescence images has been developed that achieves cellular spatial information of an undefined shape (Figure 1). We have developed an analytical platform using the Imaris core software module and Imaris XT interfaced to MATLAB (Mat Works, Inc.). These tools allow the 3D measurement of cells without a pre-defined shape and with inconsistent fluorescence network components. Furthermore, this method will allow researchers who have extended expertise in biological systems, but not familiarity to computer applications, to perform quantification of morphological changes in cell dynamics.

Maintaining a cognitive map in darkness : the need to fuse boundary knowledge with path integration

Spatial navigation requires the processing of complex, disparate and often ambiguous sensory data. The neurocomputations underpinning this vital ability remain poorly understood. Controversy remains as to whether multimodal sensory information must be combined into a unified representation, consistent with Tolman's "cognitive map", or whether differential activation of independent navigation modules suffice to explain observed navigation behaviour. Here we demonstrate that key neural correlates of spatial navigation in darkness cannot be explained if the path integration system acted independently of boundary (landmark) information. In vivo recordings demonstrate that the rodent head direction (HD) system becomes unstable within three minutes without vision. In contrast, rodents maintain stable place fields and grid fields for over half an hour without vision. Using a simple HD error model, we show analytically that idiothetic path integration (iPI) alone cannot be used to maintain any stable place representation beyond two to three minutes. We then use a measure of place stability based on information theoretic principles to prove that featureless boundaries alone cannot be used to improve localization above chance level. Having shown that neither iPI nor boundaries alone are sufficient, we then address the question of whether their combination is sufficient and - we conjecture - necessary to maintain place stability for prolonged periods without vision. We addressed this question in simulations and robot experiments using a navigation model comprising of a particle filter and boundary map. The model replicates published experimental results on place field and grid field stability without vision, and makes testable predictions including place field splitting and grid field rescaling if the true arena geometry differs from the acquired boundary map. We discuss our findings in light of current theories of animal navigation and neuronal computation, and elaborate on their implications and significance for the design, analysis and interpretation of experiments.

Fast power line detection and localization using steerable filter for active UAV guidance

In this paper we present a fast power line detection and localisation algorithm as well as propose a high-level guidance architecture for active vision-based Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) guidance. The detection stage is based on steerable filters for edge ridge detection, followed by a line fitting algorithm to refine candidate power lines in images. The guidance architecture assumes an UAV with an onboard Gimbal camera. We first control the position of the Gimbal such that the power line is in the field of view of the camera. Then its pose is used to generate the appropriate control commands such that the aircraft moves and flies above the lines. We present initial experimental results for the detection stage which shows that the proposed algorithm outperforms two state-of-the-art line detection algorithms for power line detection from aerial imagery.

Airborne particle concentrations at schools measured at different spatial scales

Potential adverse effects on children health may result from school exposure to airborne particles. To address this issue, measurements in terms of particle number concentration, particle size distribution and black carbon (BC) concentrations were performed in three school buildings in Cassino (Italy) and its suburbs, outside and inside of the classrooms during normal occupancy and use. Additional time resolved information was gathered on ventilation condition, classroom activity, and traffic count data around the schools were obtained using a video camera. Across the three investigated school buildings, the outdoor and indoor particle number concentration monitored down to 4 nm and up to 3 m ranged from 2.8×104 part cm-3 to 4.7×104 part cm-3 and from 2.0×104 part cm-3 to 3.5×104 part cm-3, respectively. The total particle concentrations were usually higher outdoors than indoors, because no indoor sources were detected. I/O measured was less than 1 (varying in a relatively narrow range from 0.63 to 0.74), however one school exhibited indoor concentrations higher than outdoor during the morning rush hours. Particle size distribution at the outdoor site showed high particle concentrations in different size ranges, varying during the day; in relation to the starting and finishing of school time two modes were found. BC concentrations were 5 times higher at the urban school compared with the suburban and suburban-to-urban differences were larger than the relative differences of ultrafine particle concentrations.

Juggling information policy, rights to information and copyright licensing to enhance the accessibility and reusability of spatial data : the Australian experience

There is still no comprehensive information strategy governing access to and reuse of public sector information, applying on a nationwide basis, across all levels of government – local, state and federal - in Australia. This is the case both for public sector materials generally and for spatial data in particular. Nevertheless, the last five years have seen some significant developments in information policy and practice, the result of which has been a considerable lessening of the barriers that previously acted to impede the accessibility and reusability of a great deal of spatial and other material held by public sector agencies. Much of the impetus for change has come from the spatial community which has for many years been a proponent of the view “that government held information, and in particular spatial information, will play an absolutely critical role in increasing the innovative capacity of this nation.”1 However, the potential of government spatial data to contribute to innovation will remain unfulfilled without reform of policies on access and reuse as well as the pervasive practices of public sector data custodians who have relied on government copyright to justify the imposition of restrictive conditions on its use.

The potential influence of Neoliberalism on the capacity and form of spatial adaptation

Human spatial environments must adapt to climate change. Spatial planning is central to climate change adaptation and potentially well suited to the task, however neoliberal influences and trends threaten this capacity. This paper explores the potential interaction of emerging research areas, the first of which pursues climate change adaptation through spatial planning and the second of which has observed the neoliberalisation of urban planning, The potential capacity and form of spatial adaptation within the context a planning environment influenced by neoliberal principles is evaluated. This influence relates to the themes of spatial scale, temporal scale, responsibility for action, strategies and mechanisms, accrual of benefits, negotiation of priorities and approach to uncertainty. This paper presents a conceptual framework of the influence of neoliberalism on spatial adaptation and presents examples of this approach in documents which underpin adaptation in Australia. It identifies the potential characteristics and the challenges and opportunities of spatial adaptation under a neoliberal frame. The neoliberal frame does not entirely preclude spatial adaptation but significantly influence its form. Neoliberal approaches involve individual action in response to private incentives and near term impacts while collective action, regulatory mechanisms and long term planning is approached cautiously. Challenges concern the degree to which collective action and a long term orientation are necessary, how individual adaptation relates to collective vulnerability and the prioritisation of adaptation by markets. Opportunities might involve the operability of individual and local adaptation, the existence of private incentives to adapt and the potential to align adaptation with entrepreneurial projects.

Spatial variation of particle number concentration in school microscale environment

There is significant toxicological evidence of the effects of ultrafine particles (<100nm) on human health (WHO 2005). Studies show that the number concentration of particles has been associated with adverse human health effects (Englert 2004). This work is part of a major study called ‘Ultrafine Particles form Traffic Emissions and Children’s Health’ (UPTECH), which seeks to determine the effect of the exposure to traffic related ultrafine particles on children’s health in schools (http://www.ilaqh.qut.edu.au/Misc/UPT ECH%20Home.htm). Quantification of spatial variation of particle number concentration (PNC) in a microscale environment and identification of the main affecting parameters and their contribution levels are the main aims of this analysis.

Spatial and temporal distribution of falciparum malaria in China

Background: Falciparum malaria is the most deadly among the four main types of human malaria. Although great success has been achieved since the launch of the National Malaria Control Programme in 1955, malaria remains a serious public health problem in China. This paper aimed to analyse the geographic distribution, demographic patterns and time trends of falciparum malaria in China. Methods: The annual numbers of falciparum malaria cases during 1992–2003 and the individual case reports of each clinical falciparum malaria during 2004–2005 were extracted from communicable disease information systems in China Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. The annual number of cases and the annual incidence were mapped by matching them to corresponding province- and county-level administrative units in a geographic information system. The distribution of falciparum malaria by age, gender and origin of infection was analysed. Time-series analysis was conducted to investigate the relationship between the falciparum malaria in the endemic provinces and the imported falciparum malaria in non-endemic provinces. Results: Falciparum malaria was endemic in two provinces of China during 2004–05. Imported malaria was reported in 26 non-endemic provinces. Annual incidence of falciparum malaria was mapped at county level in the two endemic provinces of China: Yunnan and Hainan. The sex ratio (male vs. female) for the number of cases in Yunnan was 1.6 in the children of 0–15 years and it reached 5.7 in the adults over 15 years of age. The number of malaria cases in Yunnan was positively correlated with the imported malaria of concurrent months in the non-endemic provinces. Conclusion: The endemic area of falciparum malaria in China has remained restricted to two provinces, Yunnan and Hainan. Stable transmission occurs in the bordering region of Yunnan and the hilly-forested south of Hainan. The age and gender distribution in the endemic area is characterized by the predominance of adult men cases. Imported falciparum malaria in the non-endemic area of China, affected mainly by the malaria transmission in Yunnan, has increased both spatially and temporally. Specific intervention measures targeted at the mobile population groups are warranted.

Optimization of human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV-16) L1 expression in plants: Comparison of the suitability of different HPV-16 L1 gene variants and different cell-compartment localization

Virus-like particle-based vaccines for high-risk human papillomaviruses (HPVs) appear to have great promise; however, cell culture-derived vaccines will probably be very expensive. The optimization of expression of different codon-optimized versions of the HPV-16 L1 capsid protein gene in plants has been explored by means of transient expression from a novel suite of Agrobacterium tumefaciens binary expression vectors, which allow targeting of recombinant protein to the cytoplasm, endoplasmic reticulum (ER) or chloroplasts. A gene resynthesized to reflect human codon usage expresses better than the native gene, which expresses better than a plant-optimized gene. Moreover, chloroplast localization allows significantly higher levels of accumulation of L1 protein than does cytoplasmic localization, whilst ER retention was least successful. High levels of L1 (>17% total soluble protein) could be produced via transient expression: the protein assembled into higher-order structures visible by electron microscopy, and a concentrated extract was highly immunogenic in mice after subcutaneous injection and elicited high-titre neutralizing antibodies. Transgenic tobacco plants expressing a human codon-optimized gene linked to a chloroplast-targeting signal expressed L1 at levels up to 11% of the total soluble protein. These are the highest levels of HPV L1 expression reported for plants: these results, and the excellent immunogenicity of the product, significantly improve the prospects of making a conventional HPV vaccine by this means. © 2007 SGM.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Spatial mapping of city-wide PBDE levels using an exponential decay model

Passive air samplers (PAS) consisting of polyurethane foam (PUF) disks were deployed at 6 outdoor air monitoring stations in different land use categories (commercial, industrial, residential and semi-rural) to assess the spatial distribution of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in the Brisbane airshed. Air monitoring sites covered an area of 1143 km2 and PAS were allowed to accumulate PBDEs in the city's airshed over three consecutive seasons commencing in the winter of 2008. The average sum of five (∑5) PBDEs (BDEs 28, 47, 99, 100 and 209) levels were highest at the commercial and industrial sites (12.7 ± 5.2 ng PUF−1), which were relatively close to the city center and were a factor of 8 times higher than residential and semi-rural sites located in outer Brisbane. To estimate the magnitude of the urban ‘plume’ an empirical exponential decay model was used to fit PAS data vs. distance from the CBD, with the best correlation observed when the particulate bound BDE-209 was not included (∑5-209) (r2 = 0.99), rather than ∑5 (r2 = 0.84). At 95% confidence intervals the model predicts that regardless of site characterization, ∑5-209 concentrations in a PAS sample taken between 4–10 km from the city centre would be half that from a sample taken from the city centre and reach a baseline or plateau (0.6 to 1.3 ng PUF−1), approximately 30 km from the CBD. The observed exponential decay in ∑5-209 levels over distance corresponded with Brisbane's decreasing population density (persons/km2) from the city center. The residual error associated with the model increased significantly when including BDE-209 levels, primarily due to the highest level (11.4 ± 1.8 ng PUF−1) being consistently detected at the industrial site, indicating a potential primary source at this site. Active air samples collected alongside the PAS at the industrial air monitoring site (B) indicated BDE-209 dominated congener composition and was entirely associated with the particulate phase. This study demonstrates that PAS are effective tools for monitoring citywide regional differences however, interpretation of spatial trends for POPs which are predominantly associated with the particulate phase such as BDE-209, may be restricted to identifying ‘hotspots’ rather than broad spatial trends.

Will the application of spatial multi criteria evaluation technique enhance the quality of decision-making to resolve boundary conflicts in the Philippines?

Systematic studies that evaluate the quality of decision-making processes are relatively rare. Using the literature on decision quality, this research develops a framework to assess the quality of decision-making processes for resolving boundary conflicts in the Philippines. The evaluation framework breaks down the decision-making process into three components (the decision procedure, the decision method, and the decision unit) and is applied to two ex-post (one resolved and one unresolved) and one ex-ante cases. The evaluation results from the resolved and the unresolved cases show that the choice of decision method plays a minor role in resolving boundary conflicts whereas the choice of decision procedure is more influential. In the end, a decision unit can choose a simple method to resolve the conflict. The ex-ante case presents a follow-up intended to resolve the unresolved case for a changing decision-making process in which the associated decision unit plans to apply the spatial multi criteria evaluation (SMCE) tool as a decision method. The evaluation results from the ex-ante case confirm that the SMCE has the potential to enhance the decision quality because: a) it provides high quality as a decision method in this changing process, and b) the weaknesses associated with the decision unit and the decision procedure of the unresolved case were found to be eliminated in this process.

Spatial modelling of population health screening : the role of accessibility in predicting expected patient flows

This paper describes a generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) approach for understanding spatial patterns of participation in population health screening, in the presence of multiple screening facilities. The models presented have dual focus, namely the prediction of expected patient flows from regions to services and relative rates of participation by region- service combination, with both outputs having meaningful implications for the monitoring of current service uptake and provision. The novelty of this paper lies with the former focus, and an approach for distributing expected participation by region based on proximity to services is proposed. The modelling of relative rates of participation is achieved through the combination of different random effects, as a means of assigning excess participation to different sources. The methodology is applied to participation data collected from a government-funded mammography program in Brisbane, Australia.