Predicting Hospital Mortality in Critically Ill Cancer Patients according to Acute Kidney Injury Severity

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent complication in hospitalized patients, especially in those in intensive care units (ICU). The RIFLE classification might be a valid prognostic factor for critically ill cancer patients. The present study aims to evaluate the discriminatory capacity of RIFLE versus other general prognostic scores in predicting hospital mortality in critically ill cancer patients. Methods: This is a single-center study conducted in a cancer-specialized ICU in Brazil. All of the 288 patients hospitalized from May 2006 to June 2008 were included. RIFLE classification, APACHE II, SOFA, and SAPS II scores were calculated and the area under receiver operating characteristic (AROC) curves and logistic multiple regression were performed using hospital mortality as the outcome. Results: AKI, defined by RIFLE criteria, was observed in 156 (54.2%) patients. The distribution of patients with any degree of AKI was: risk, n = 96 (33.3%); injury, n = 30 (10.4%), and failure, n = 30 (10.4%). Mortality was 13.6% for non-AKI patients, 49% for RIFLE `R` patients, 62.3% for RIFLE `I` patients, and 86.8% for RIFLE `F` patients (p = 0.0006). Logistic regression analysis showed that RIFLE criteria, APACHE II, SOFA, and SAPS II were independent factors for mortality in this population. The discrimination of RIFLE was good (AROC 0.801, 95% CI 0.748-0.854) but inferior compared to those of APACHE II (AROC 0.940, 95% CI 0.915-0.966), SOFA (AROC 0.910, 95% CI 0.876-0.943), and SAPS II (AROC 0.869, 95% CI 0.827-0.912). Conclusion: AKI is a frequent complication in ICU patients with cancer. RIFLE was inferior to commonly used prognostic scores for predicting mortality in this cohort of patients. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel

A Comparison of the Home Range Sizes of Mainland and Island Populations of Black-Faced Lion Tamarins (Leontopithecus caissara) Using Different Spatial Analysis

The critically endangered black-faced lion tamarin, Leontopithecus caissara, has a restricted geographical distribution consisting of small mainland and island populations, each with distinct habitats in coastal southeastern Brazil. Necessary conservation management actions require an assessment of whether differences in habitats are reflected in use of space by the species. We studied two tamarin groups on the mainland at Sao Paulo state between August 2005 and March 2007, and compared the results with data from Superagui Island. Three home range estimators were used: minimum convex polygon (MCP), Kernel, and the new technique presented dissolved monthly polygons (DMP). These resulted, respectively, in home ranges of 345, 297, and 282 ha for the 12-month duration of the study. Spatial overlap of mainland groups was extensive, whereas temporal overlap was not, a pattern that indicates resource partitioning is an important strategy to avoid intraspecific competition. L. caissara large home ranges seem to be dynamic, with constant incorporation of new areas and abandonment of others through time. The main difference between mainland and island groups is the amount and variety of sleeping sites. A better understanding of the home range sizes, day range lengths, and territorial behavior of this species will aid in developing better management strategies for its protection. Additionally, the presented DMP protocol is a useful improvement over the MCP method as it results in more realistic home range sizes for wildlife species. Am. J. Primatol. 73: 1114-1126, 2011. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

HOME RANGE AND SPATIAL ORGANIZATION OF MANED WOLVES IN THE BRAZILIAN GRASSLANDS

The maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus) is the largest canid in South America, weighing up to 30 kg, and exhibits an omnivorous diet based on fruits and small vertebrates. Maned wolves are considered to live in monogamous pairs defending a common territory, with mates living a largely solitary life, but these conclusions come from few studies with small samples. We captured maned wolves in Emas National Park, central Brazil, and monitored their use of space using radiotelemetry. Home-range size and overlap of 45 adults, and interactions between members of 5 pairs, were investigated. Home-range sizes of resident adults averaged 80.18 km(2) using the fixed kernel with 95% of the locations, and averaged 13.78 km(2) with 50% of the locations. Overlap of 95% ranges between male-male, female-female, or mixed dyads was similar, approximately 0.20, whereas 50% ranges of maned wolves showed less overlap overall but more tolerance for overlap with the opposite sex. Members of a pair were located alone more often than together, and even when located simultaneously maintained a mean distance of >0.5 km apart, independent of time of day. Results are in agreement with a spatial organization based on monogamous mating pairs with little intrapair sociality, but the latter needs to be investigated in more detail.

Quasi-stationarity in populations that are subject to large-scale mortality or emigration

We shall examine a model, first studied by Brockwell et al. [Adv Appl Probab 14 (1982) 709.], which can be used to describe the longterm behaviour of populations that are subject to catastrophic mortality or emigration events. Populations can suffer dramatic declines when disease, such as an introduced virus, affects the population, or when food shortages occur, due to overgrazing or fluctuations in rainfall. However, perhaps surprisingly, such populations can survive for long periods and, although they may eventually become extinct, they can exhibit an apparently stationary regime. It is useful to be able to model this behaviour. This is particularly true of the ecological examples that motivated the present study, since, in order to properly manage these populations, it is necessary to be able to predict persistence times and to estimate the conditional probability distribution of population size. We shall see that although our model predicts eventual extinction, the time till extinction can be long and the stationary exhibited by these populations over any reasonable time scale can be explained using a quasistationary distribution. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neonatal endotoxin exposure changes neuroendocrine, cardiovascular function and mortality during polymicrobial sepsis in adult rats

Our aim was to investigate whether neonatal LPS challenge may improve hormonal, cardiovascular response and mortality, this being a beneficial adaptation when adult rats are submitted to polymicrobial sepsis by cecal ligation and puncture (CLP). Fourteen days after birth, pups received an intraperitoneal injection of lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 100 mu g/kg) or saline. After 8-12 weeks, they were submitted to CLP, decapitated 4,6 or 24 h after surgery and blood was collected for vasopressin (AVP), corticosterone and nitrate measurement, while AVP contents were measured in neurohypophysis, supra-optic (SON) and paraventricular (PVN) nuclei. Moreover, rats had their mean arterial pressure (MAP) and heart rate (HR) evaluated, and mortality and bacteremia were determined at 24 h. Septic animals with neonatal LPS exposure had higher plasma AVP and corticosterone levels, and higher c-Fos expression in SON and PVN at 24 h after surgery when compared to saline treated rats. The LPS pretreated group showed increased AVP content in SON and PVN at 6 h, while we did not observe any change in neurohypophyseal AVP content. The nitrate levels were significantly reduced in plasma at 6 and 24 h after surgery, and in both hypothalamic nuclei only at 6 h. Septic animals with neonatal LPS exposure showed increase in MAP during the initial phase of sepsis, but HR was not different from the neonatal saline group. Furthermore, neonatally LPS exposed rats showed a significant decrease in mortality rate as well as in bacteremia. These data suggest that neonatal LPS challenge is able to promote beneficial effects on neuroendocrine and cardiovascular responses to polymicrobial sepsis in adulthood. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating high and moderate spatial resolution image data to estimate forest age structure

The collection of spatial information to quantify changes to the state and condition of the environment is a fundamental component of conservation or sustainable utilization of tropical and subtropical forests, Age is an important structural attribute of old-growth forests influencing biological diversity in Australia eucalypt forests. Aerial photograph interpretation has traditionally been used for mapping the age and structure of forest stands. However this method is subjective and is not able to accurately capture fine to landscape scale variation necessary for ecological studies. Identification and mapping of fine to landscape scale vegetative structural attributes will allow the compilation of information associated with Montreal Process indicators lb and ld, which seek to determine linkages between age structure and the diversity and abundance of forest fauna populations. This project integrated measurements of structural attributes derived from a canopy-height elevation model with results from a geometrical-optical/spectral mixture analysis model to map forest age structure at a landscape scale. The availability of multiple-scale data allows the transfer of high-resolution attributes to landscape scale monitoring. Multispectral image data were obtained from a DMSV (Digital Multi-Spectral Video) sensor over St Mary's State Forest in Southeast Queensland, Australia. Local scene variance levels for different forest tapes calculated from the DMSV data were used to optimize the tree density and canopy size output in a geometric-optical model applied to a Landsat Thematic Mapper (TU) data set. Airborne laser scanner data obtained over the project area were used to calibrate a digital filter to extract tree heights from a digital elevation model that was derived from scanned colour stereopairs. The modelled estimates of tree height, crown size, and tree density were used to produce a decision-tree classification of forest successional stage at a landscape scale. The results obtained (72% accuracy), were limited in validation, but demonstrate potential for using the multi-scale methodology to provide spatial information for forestry policy objectives (ie., monitoring forest age structure).

Prediction of mortality using dobutamine echocardiography

OBJECTIVES We sought to find out whether dobutamine echocardiography (DbE) could provide independent prediction of total and cardiac mortality, incremental to clinical and angiographic variables. BACKGROUND Existing outcome studies with DbE have examined composite end points, rather than death, over a relatively short follow-up. METHODS Clinical and stress data were collected in 3,156 patients (age 63 +/- 12 years, 1,801 men) undergoing DbE. Significant stenoses (>50% diameter) were identified in 70% of 1,073 patients undergoing coronary angiography. Total and cardiac mortality were identified over nine years of follow-up (mean 3.8 +/- 1.9). Cox models were used to analyze the effect of ischemia and other variables, independent of other determinants of mortality. RESULTS The dobutamine echocardiogram was abnormal in 1,575 patients (50%). Death occurred in 716 patients (23%), 259 of whom (8%) were thought to have died from cardiac causes. Patients with normal DbE had a total mortality of 8% per year and a cardiac mortality of 1% per year over the first four years of follow-up. Ischemia and the extent of abnormal wall motion were independent predictors of cardiac death, together with age and heart failure. In sequential Cox models, the predictive power of clinical data alone (model chi-square 115) was strengthened by adding the resting left ventricular function (model chi-square 138) and the results of DbE (model chi-square 181). In the subgroup undergoing coronary angiography, the power of the model was increased to a minor degree by the addition of coronary anatomy data. CONCLUSIONS Dobutamine echocardiography is an independent predictor of death, incremental to other data. While a normal dobutamine echocardiogram predicts low risk of cardiac death ton the order of 1% per year), this risk increases with the extent of abnormal wall motion at rest and stress, (J Am Coil Cardiol 2001;37:754-60) (C) 2001 by the American College of Cardiology.