A review of climate risk information for adaptation and development planning

Although the use of climate scenarios for impact assessment has grown steadily since the 1990s, uptake of such information for adaptation is lagging by nearly a decade in terms of scientific output. Nonetheless, integration of climate risk information in development planning is now a priority for donor agencies because of the need to prepare for climate change impacts across different sectors and countries. This urgency stems from concerns that progress made against Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) could be threatened by anthropogenic climate change beyond 2015. Up to this time the human signal, though detectable and growing, will be a relatively small component of climate variability and change. This implies the need for a twin-track approach: on the one hand, vulnerability assessments of social and economic strategies for coping with present climate extremes and variability, and, on the other hand, development of climate forecast tools and scenarios to evaluate sector-specific, incremental changes in risk over the next few decades. This review starts by describing the climate outlook for the next couple of decades and the implications for adaptation assessments. We then review ways in which climate risk information is already being used in adaptation assessments and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of three groups of techniques. Next we identify knowledge gaps and opportunities for improving the production and uptake of climate risk information for the 2020s. We assert that climate change scenarios can meet some, but not all, of the needs of adaptation planning. Even then, the choice of scenario technique must be matched to the intended application, taking into account local constraints of time, resources, human capacity and supporting infrastructure. We also show that much greater attention should be given to improving and critiquing models used for climate impact assessment, as standard practice. Finally, we highlight the over-arching need for the scientific community to provide more information and guidance on adapting to the risks of climate variability and change over nearer time horizons (i.e. the 2020s). Although the focus of the review is on information provision and uptake in developing regions, it is clear that many developed countries are facing the same challenges. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach

We explore the potential for making statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in a perfect model analysis, with a focus on the Atlantic basin. Various statistical methods (Lagged correlations, Linear Inverse Modelling and Constructed Analogue) are found to have significant skill in predicting the internal variability of Atlantic SSTs for up to a decade ahead in control integrations of two different global climate models (GCMs), namely HadCM3 and HadGEM1. Statistical methods which consider non-local information tend to perform best, but which is the most successful statistical method depends on the region considered, GCM data used and prediction lead time. However, the Constructed Analogue method tends to have the highest skill at longer lead times. Importantly, the regions of greatest prediction skill can be very different to regions identified as potentially predictable from variance explained arguments. This finding suggests that significant local decadal variability is not necessarily a prerequisite for skillful decadal predictions, and that the statistical methods are capturing some of the dynamics of low-frequency SST evolution. In particular, using data from HadGEM1, significant skill at lead times of 6–10 years is found in the tropical North Atlantic, a region with relatively little decadal variability compared to interannual variability. This skill appears to come from reconstructing the SSTs in the far north Atlantic, suggesting that the more northern latitudes are optimal for SST observations to improve predictions. We additionally explore whether adding sub-surface temperature data improves these decadal statistical predictions, and find that, again, it depends on the region, prediction lead time and GCM data used. Overall, we argue that the estimated prediction skill motivates the further development of statistical decadal predictions of SSTs as a benchmark for current and future GCM-based decadal climate predictions.

Comparing the UK Met Office climate prediction system DePreSys with idealized predictability in the HadCM3 model

The initial condition effect on climate prediction skill over a 2-year hindcast time-scale has been assessed from ensemble HadCM3 climate model runs using anomaly initialization over the period 1990–2001, and making comparisons with runs without initialization (equivalent to climatological conditions), and to anomaly persistence. It is shown that the assimilation improves the prediction skill in the first year globally, and in a number of limited areas out into the second year. Skill in hindcasting surface air temperature anomalies is most marked over ocean areas, and is coincident with areas of high sea surface temperature and ocean heat content skill. Skill improvement over land areas is much more limited but is still detectable in some cases. We found little difference in the skill of hindcasts using three different sets of ocean initial conditions, and we obtained the best results by combining these to form a grand ensemble hindcast set. Results are also compared with the idealized predictability studies of Collins (Clim. Dynam. 2002; 19: 671–692), which used the same model. The maximum lead time for which initialization gives enhanced skill over runs without initialization varies in different regions but is very similar to lead times found in the idealized studies, therefore strongly supporting the process representation in the model as well as its use for operational predictions. The limited 12-year period of the study, however, means that the regional details of model skill should probably be further assessed under a wider range of observational conditions.

Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic ocean in the mid-1990s

In the mid-1990s the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic underwent a remarkable rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures increasing by around 1C in just 2 years. This rapid warming followed a prolonged positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but also coincided with an unusually negative NAO index in the winter of 1995/96. By comparing ocean analyses and carefully designed model experiments we show that this rapid warming can be understood as a delayed response to the prolonged positive phase of the NAO, and not simply an instantaneous response to the negative NAO index of 1995/96. Furthermore, we infer that the warming was partly caused by a surge, and subsequent decline, in the Meridional Overturning Circulation and northward heat transport of the Atlantic Ocean. Our results provide persuasive evidence of significant oceanic memory on multi-annual timescales, and are therefore encouraging for the prospects of developing skillful predictions.

Well-posed two-point initial-boundary value problems with arbitrary boundary conditions

We study initial-boundary value problems for linear evolution equations of arbitrary spatial order, subject to arbitrary linear boundary conditions and posed on a rectangular 1-space, 1-time domain. We give a new characterisation of the boundary conditions that specify well-posed problems using Fokas' transform method. We also give a sufficient condition guaranteeing that the solution can be represented using a series. The relevant condition, the analyticity at infinity of certain meromorphic functions within particular sectors, is significantly more concrete and easier to test than the previous criterion, based on the existence of admissible functions.

An investigation of the expression and adhesin function of H7 flagella in the interaction of Escherichia coli O157: H7 with bovine intestinal epithelium

Enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157 : H7 is a bacterial pathogen that can cause haemorrhagic colitis and haemolytic uremic syndrome. In the primary reservoir host, cattle, the terminal rectum is the principal site of E. coli O157 colonization. In this study, bovine terminal rectal primary epithelial cells were used to examine the role of H7 flagella in epithelial adherence. Binding of a fliC(H7) mutant O157 strain to rectal epithelium was significantly reduced as was binding of the flagellated wild-type strain following incubation with H7-specific antibodies. Complementation of fliC(H7) mutant O157 strain with fliC(H7) restored the adherence to wild-type levels; however, complementation with fliC(H6) did not restore it. High-resolution ultrastructural and imunofluorescence studies demonstrated the presence of abundant flagella forming physical contact points with the rectal epithelium. Binding to terminal rectal epithelium was specific to H7 by comparison with other flagellin types tested. In-cell Western assays confirmed temporal expression of flagella during O157 interaction with epithelium, early expression was suppressed during the later stages of microcolony and attaching and effacing lesion formation. H7 flagella are expressed in vivo by individual bacteria in contact with rectal mucosa. Our data demonstrate that the H7 flagellum acts as an adhesin to bovine intestinal epithelium and its involvement in this crucial initiating step for colonization indicates that H7 flagella could be an important target in intervention strategies.

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.

Initialized decadal predictions of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s

In the mid 1990s the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) warmed rapidly, with sea surface temperatures (SST) increasing by 1°C in just a few years. By examining initialized hindcasts made with the UK Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys), it is shown that the warming could have been predicted. Conversely, hindcasts that only consider changes in radiative forcings are not able to capture the rapid warming. Heat budget analysis shows that the success of the DePreSys hindcasts is due to the initialization of anomalously strong northward ocean heat transport. Furthermore, it is found that initializing a strong Atlantic circulation, and in particular a strong Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, is key for successful predictions. Finally, we show that DePreSys is able to predict significant changes in SST and other surface climate variables related to the North Atlantic warming.

Heterogeneous surface expression of EspA translocon filaments by Escherichia coli O157:H7 is controlled at the posttranscriptional level

Type III secretion systems of enteric bacteria enable translocation of effector proteins into host cells. Secreted proteins of verotoxigenic Escherichia coli O157 strains include components of a translocation apparatus, EspA, -B, and -D, as well as "effectors" such as the translocated intimin receptor (Tir) and the mitochondrion-associated protein (Map). This research has investigated the regulation of LEE4 translocon proteins, in particular EspA. EspA filaments could not be detected on the bacterial cell surface when E. coli O157:H7 was cultured in M9 minimal medium but were expressed from only a proportion of the bacterial population when cultured in minimal essential medium modified with 25 mM HEPES. The highest proportions of EspA-filamented bacteria were detected in late exponential phase, after which filaments were lost rapidly from the bacterial cell surface. Our previous research had shown that human and bovine E. coli O157:H7 strains exhibit marked differences in EspD secretion levels. Here it is demonstrated that the proportion of the bacterial population expressing EspA filaments was associated with the level of EspD secretion. The ability of individual bacteria to express EspA filaments was not controlled at the level of LEE1-4 operon transcription, as demonstrated by using both beta-galactosidase and green fluorescent protein (GFP) promoter fusions. All bacteria, whether expressing EspA filaments or not, showed equivalent levels of GFP expression when LEEI-4 translational fusions were used. Despite this, the LEE4-espADB mRNA was more abundant from populations with a high proportion of nonsecreting bacteria (low secretors) than from populations with a high proportion of secreting and therefore filamented bacteria (high secretors). This research demonstrates that while specific environmental conditions are required to induce LEEI-4 expression, a further checkpoint exists before EspA filaments are produced on the bacterial surface and secretion of effector proteins occurs. This checkpoint in E. coli O157:H7 translocon expression is controlled by a posttranscriptional mechanism acting on LEE4-espADB mRNA. The heterogeneity in EspA filamentation could arise from phase-variable expression of regulators that control this posttranscriptional mechanism.

Co-ordinate single-cell expression of LEE4- and LEE5-encoded proteins of Escherichia coli O157:H7

Escherichia coli O157:H7 is a zoonotic pathogen that can express a type III secretion system (TTSS) considered important for colonization and persistence in ruminants. E. coli O157:H7 strains have been shown to vary markedly in levels of protein secreted using the TTSS and this study has confirmed that a high secretion phenotype is more prevalent among isolates associated with human disease than isolates shed by healthy cattle. The variation in secretion levels is a consequence of heterogeneous expression, being dependent on the proportion of bacteria in a population that are actively engaged in protein secretion. This was demonstrated by indirect immunofluorescence and eGFP fusions that examined the expression of locus of enterocyte effacement (LEE)-encoded factors in individual bacteria. In liquid media, the expression of EspA, tir::egfp, intimin, but not map::egfp were co-ordinated in a subpopulation of bacteria. In contrast to E. coli O157:H7, expression of tir::egfp in EPEC E2348/69 was equivalent in all bacteria although the same fusion exhibited variable expression when transformed into an E. coli O157:H7 background. An E. coli O157:H7 strain deleted for the LEE demonstrated weak but variable expression of tir::egfp indicating that the elements controlling the heterogeneous expression lie outside the LEE. The research also demonstrated the rapid induction of tir::egfp and map::egfp on contact with bovine epithelial cells. This control in E. coli O157:H7 may be required to limit exposure of key surface antigens, EspA, Tir and intimin during colonization of cattle but allow their rapid production on contact with bovine gastrointestinal epithelium at the terminal rectum.

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.

Spectral theory of some non-selfadjoint linear differential operators

We give a characterisation of the spectral properties of linear differential operators with constant coefficients, acting on functions defined on a bounded interval, and determined by general linear boundary conditions. The boundary conditions may be such that the resulting operator is not selfadjoint. We associate the spectral properties of such an operator $S$ with the properties of the solution of a corresponding boundary value problem for the partial differential equation $\partial_t q \pm iSq=0$. Namely, we are able to establish an explicit correspondence between the properties of the family of eigenfunctions of the operator, and in particular whether this family is a basis, and the existence and properties of the unique solution of the associated boundary value problem. When such a unique solution exists, we consider its representation as a complex contour integral that is obtained using a transform method recently proposed by Fokas and one of the authors. The analyticity properties of the integrand in this representation are crucial for studying the spectral theory of the associated operator.

Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches

This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addresses the use of decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system. External forcing influences the predictions throughout, but their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most of the improved skill from initialization with observations vanishes after about six to nine years. Recent multi-model results suggest that there is relatively more decadal predictive skill in the North Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans than in other regions of the world oceans. Aspects of decadal variability of SSTs, like the mid-1970s shift in the Pacific, the mid-1990s shift in the northern North Atlantic and western Pacific, and the early-2000s hiatus, are better represented in initialized hindcasts compared to uninitialized simulations. There is evidence of higher skill in initialized multi-model ensemble decadal hindcasts than in single model results, with multi-model initialized predictions for near term climate showing somewhat less global warming than uninitialized simulations. Some decadal hindcasts have shown statistically reliable predictions of surface temperature over various land and ocean regions for lead times of up to 6-9 years, but this needs to be investigated in a wider set of models. As in the early days of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction, improvements to models will reduce the need for bias adjustment, and increase the reliability, and thus usefulness, of decadal climate predictions in the future.