Fertility and rural electrification in Bangladesh

We use a panel dataset from Bangladesh to examine the relationship between fertility and the adoption of electricity with the latter instrumented by infrastructure development and the quality of service delivery. We find that the adoption of electricity reduces fertility, and this impact is more pronounced when the household already has two or more children. This observation can be explained by a simple household model of time use, in which adoption of electricity affects only the optimal number of children but not necessarily current fertility behavior if the optimal number has not yet been reached.

PERFIL DA PRODUÇÃO ACADÊMICA SOBRE A REDE GLOBO DE TELEVISÃO

Este trabalho tem por objetivo traçar o perfil da produção acadêmica sobre a Rede Globo de Televisão. Para isto, utilizamos como fonte de pesquisa teses de doutorado e dissertações de mestrado defendidas em programas de pós-graduação no Brasil e repertoriadas no banco de teses da CAPES. Foram analisadas 145 publicações acadêmicas no período de 1987 a 2006. Na abordagem analítica do perfil desta produção destacam-se: ano de produção; instituição de ensino de origem; região geográfica; nível acadêmico, área de estudo e gênero dos autores.(AU)

PERFIL DA PRODUÇÃO ACADÊMICA SOBRE A REDE GLOBO DE TELEVISÃO

Este trabalho tem por objetivo traçar o perfil da produção acadêmica sobre a Rede Globo de Televisão. Para isto, utilizamos como fonte de pesquisa teses de doutorado e dissertações de mestrado defendidas em programas de pós-graduação no Brasil e repertoriadas no banco de teses da CAPES. Foram analisadas 145 publicações acadêmicas no período de 1987 a 2006. Na abordagem analítica do perfil desta produção destacam-se: ano de produção; instituição de ensino de origem; região geográfica; nível acadêmico, área de estudo e gênero dos autores.(AU)

Como estamos indo? Estudo do deslocamento ativo no Brasil

Introdução: O deslocamento ativo tem estreita relação com problemas de saúde pública da atualidade e sua promoção pode contribuir para melhorias quanto à mobilidade urbana, estado de saúde e proteção do meio ambiente. Entretanto, a maior parte das pesquisas sobre o tema tem sido desenvolvida em países de renda alta. A presente tese busca ampliar a investigação sobre o deslocamento ativo no Brasil. Objetivos: i) Descrever a frequência, a distribuição e a variação temporal de indicadores do deslocamento ativo em populações brasileiras; ii) Avaliar o impacto de mudanças no padrão de transporte da população sobre o deslocamento ativo, o tempo sedentário e desfechos de saúde em populações brasileiras. Métodos: Tese composta por sete manuscritos. O primeiro apresenta revisão sistemática de estudos com informações sobre a prática de deslocamento ativo na América Latina e Caribe; o segundo descreve estimativas representativas da população brasileira sobre a prática de deslocamento ativo para o trabalho; o terceiro e o quarto descrevem a frequência e tendência temporal do deslocamento ativo na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (ciclistas e escolares); o quinto discute a questão da mobilidade urbana e do direito à cidade em São Paulo; o sexto e o sétimo avaliam o impacto de mudanças no padrão de mobilidade da metrópole paulistana sobre a prática de deslocamento ativo, tempo não-ativo de deslocamento e tempo total de deslocamento, bem como sobre a poluição do ar e saúde da população. Resultados: A prevalência mediana de deslocamento ativo encontrada em diferentes locais do Brasil foi de 12 por cento , variando entre 5,1 por cento em Palmas (Tocantins) a 58,9 por cento em Rio Claro (São Paulo) (Manuscrito 1). Um terço dos homens e das mulheres desloca-se a pé ou de bicicleta de casa para o trabalho no país. Em ambos os sexos, esta proporção diminui com o aumento da renda e da escolaridade e é maior entre os mais jovens, entre os que residem em áreas rurais, e na região Nordeste. Em todas as regiões metropolitanas estudadas, o quinto das pessoas de menor renda apresenta uma maior frequência de deslocamento ativo (Manuscrito 2). Entre os anos de 2007 e 2012, observamos redução no número de ciclistas em São Paulo e diferenças expressivas na proporção de ciclistas entre homens e mulheres (9,7 por mil habitantes versus 1,4 por mil habitantes em 2012) (Manuscrito 3). Também verificamos uma queda na proporção de crianças que se deslocam ativamente para a escola entre os anos de 1997 e 2012 (Manuscrito 4). O cenário epidemiológico do deslocamento ativo no país é resultante da disputa pelo direito à cidade, com repercussões na transição de mobilidade humana e na saúde e qualidade de vida da população, como podemos observar no caso de São Paulo (Manuscrito 5). A construção de uma São Paulo mais inclusiva, com menores distâncias para os deslocamentos cotidianos e maior frequência de caminhada e bicicleta, levaria à substancial redução do tempo total e do tempo sedentário despendidos nos deslocamentos, sem diminuir a duração do deslocamento ativo (Manuscrito 6). Traria também ganhos à saúde da população, sobretudo pelo aumento da prática de atividade física e da redução da poluição do ar (Manuscrito 7). Conclusões: A prática de deslocamento ativo no Brasil apresenta marcadas diferenças segundo região e características sociodemográficas. De um modo geral, esta prática vem diminuindo no país, o que deve contribuir negativamente para a saúde da população. A promoção de cidades mais inclusivas e compactas, com o favorecimento a modos ativos de deslocamento, pode contribuir para reverter esta preocupante tendência.

CEPAL Review no. 118

Special issue: 40 years of CEPAL Review

A PCR method for the identification of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) from screening swabs

Aim: The aim of this study was to assess the discriminatory power and potential turn around time ( TAT) of a PCR-based method for the detection of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) from screening swabs. Methods: Screening swabs were examined using the current laboratory protocol of direct culture on mannitol salt agar supplemented with oxacillin (MSAO-direct). The PCR method involved pre-incubation in broth for 4 hours followed by a multiplex PCR with primers directed to mecA and nuc genes of MRSA. The reference standard was determined by pre-incubation in broth for 4 hours followed by culture on MSAO (MSAO-broth). Results: A total of 256 swabs was analysed. The rates of detection of MRSA using MSAO-direct, MSAO-broth and PCR were 10.2, 13.3 and 10.2%, respectively. For PCR, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values were 66.7% (95% CI 51.9 - 83.3%), 98.6% ( 95% CI 97.1 - 100%), 84.6% ( 95% CI 76.2 - 100%) and 95.2% ( 95% CI 92.4 - 98.0%), respectively, and these results were almost identical to those obtained from MSAO-direct. The agreement between MSAO-direct and PCR was 61.5% ( 95% CI 42.8 - 80.2%) for positive results, 95.6% ( 95% CI 93.0 - 98.2%) for negative results and overall was 92.2% ( 95% CI 88.9 - 95.5%). Conclusions: ( 1) The discriminatory power of PCR and MSAO-direct is similar but the level of agreement, especially for true positive results, is low. ( 2) The potential TAT for the PCR method provides a marked advantage over conventional methods. ( 3) Further modifications to the PCR method such as increased broth incubation time, use of selective broth and adaptation to real-time PCR may lead to improvement in sensitivity and TAT.

Community-based programmes to prevent pedestrian injuries in children 0-14 years: A systematic review

Community-based models for injury prevention have become an accepted part of the overall injury control strategy. This systematic review of the scientific literature examines the evidence for their effectiveness in reducing pedestrian injury in children 0-14 years of age. A comprehensive search of the literature was performed using the following study selection criteria: community-based intervention study; target population was children under 14 years; outcome measure is either pedestrian injury rates or observed child pedestrian or vehicle driver behaviour; and use of a community control or an historical control in the study design. Quality assessment and data abstraction was guided by a standardized procedure and performed independently by two authors. Data synthesis was in tabular and text form with meta-analysis not being possible due to the discrepancy in methods and measures between the studies.

PERFIL DA PRODUÇÃO ACADÊMICA SOBRE A REDE GLOBO DE TELEVISÃO

Este trabalho tem por objetivo traçar o perfil da produção acadêmica sobre a Rede Globo de Televisão. Para isto, utilizamos como fonte de pesquisa teses de doutorado e dissertações de mestrado defendidas em programas de pós-graduação no Brasil e repertoriadas no banco de teses da CAPES. Foram analisadas 145 publicações acadêmicas no período de 1987 a 2006. Na abordagem analítica do perfil desta produção destacam-se: ano de produção; instituição de ensino de origem; região geográfica; nível acadêmico, área de estudo e gênero dos autores.(AU)

Design of an expandable manufacturing simulator through the application of object-oriented principles

In analysing manufacturing systems, for either design or operational reasons, failure to account for the potentially significant dynamics could produce invalid results. There are many analysis techniques that can be used, however, simulation is unique in its ability to assess detailed, dynamic behaviour. The use of simulation to analyse manufacturing systems would therefore seem appropriate if not essential. Many simulation software products are available but their ease of use and scope of application vary greatly. This is illustrated at one extreme by simulators which offer rapid but limited application whilst at the other simulation languages which are extremely flexible but tedious to code. Given that a typical manufacturing engineer does not posses in depth programming and simulation skills then the use of simulators over simulation languages would seem a more appropriate choice. Whilst simulators offer ease of use their limited functionality may preclude their use in many applications. The construction of current simulators makes it difficult to amend or extend the functionality of the system to meet new challenges. Some simulators could even become obsolete as users, demand modelling functionality that reflects the latest manufacturing system design and operation concepts. This thesis examines the deficiencies in current simulation tools and considers whether they can be overcome by the application of object-oriented principles. Object-oriented techniques have gained in popularity in recent years and are seen as having the potential to overcome any of the problems traditionally associated with software construction. There are a number of key concepts that are exploited in the work described in this thesis: the use of object-oriented techniques to act as a framework for abstracting engineering concepts into a simulation tool and the ability to reuse and extend object-oriented software. It is argued that current object-oriented simulation tools are deficient and that in designing such tools, object -oriented techniques should be used not just for the creation of individual simulation objects but for the creation of the complete software. This results in the ability to construct an easy to use simulator that is not limited by its initial functionality. The thesis presents the design of an object-oriented data driven simulator which can be freely extended. Discussion and work is focused on discrete parts manufacture. The system developed retains the ease of use typical of data driven simulators. Whilst removing any limitation on its potential range of applications. Reference is given to additions made to the simulator by other developers not involved in the original software development. Particular emphasis is put on the requirements of the manufacturing engineer and the need for Ihe engineer to carrv out dynamic evaluations.

Essays on the Role of Government Incentives in the Private Provision of Social Goods

The economic rationale for public intervention into private markets through price mechanisms is twofold: to correct market failures and to redistribute resources. Financial incentives are one such price mechanism. In this dissertation, I specifically address the role of financial incentives in providing social goods in two separate contexts: a redistributive policy that enables low income working families to access affordable childcare in the US and an experimental pay-for-performance intervention to improve population health outcomes in rural India. In the first two papers, I investigate the effects of government incentives for providing grandchild care on grandmothers’ short- and long-term outcomes. In the third paper, coauthored with Manoj Mohanan, Grant Miller, Katherine Donato, and Marcos Vera-Hernandez, we use an experimental framework to consider the the effects of financial incentives in improving maternal and child health outcomes in the Indian state of Karnataka.

Grandmothers provide a significant amount of childcare in the US, but little is known about how this informal, and often uncompensated, time transfer impacts their economic and health outcomes. The first two chapters of this dissertation address the impact of federally funded, state-level means-tested programs that compensate grandparent-provided childcare on the retirement security of older women, an economically vulnerable group of considerable policy interest. I use the variation in the availability and generosity of childcare subsidies to model the effect of government payments for grandchild care on grandmothers’ time use, income, earnings, interfamily transfers, and health outcomes. After establishing that more generous government payments induce grandmothers to provide more hours of childcare, I find that grandmothers adjust their behavior by reducing their formal labor supply and earnings. Grandmothers make up for lost earnings by claiming Social Security earlier, increasing their reliance on Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and reducing financial transfers to their children. While the policy does not appear to negatively impact grandmothers’ immediate economic well-being, there are significant costs to the state, in terms of both up-front costs for care payments and long-term costs as a result of grandmothers’ increased reliance on social insurance.

The final paper, The Role of Non-Cognitive Traits in Response to Financial Incentives: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial of Obstetrics Care Providers in India, is coauthored with Manoj Mohanan, Grant Miller, Katherine Donato and Marcos Vera-Hernandez. We report the results from “Improving Maternal and Child Health in India: Evaluating Demand and Supply Side Strategies” (IMACHINE), a randomized controlled experiment designed to test the effectiveness of supply-side incentives for private obstetrics care providers in rural Karnataka, India. In particular, the experimental design compares two different types of incentives: (1) those based on the quality of inputs providers offer their patients (inputs contracts) and (2) those based on the reduction of incidence of four adverse maternal and neonatal health outcomes (outcomes contracts). Along with studying the relative effectiveness of the different financial incentives, we also investigate the role of provider characteristics, preferences, expectations and non-cognitive traits in mitigating the effects of incentive contracts.

We find that both contract types input incentive contracts reduce rates of post-partum hemorrhage, the leading cause of maternal mortality in India by about 20%. We also find some evidence of multitasking as output incentive contract providers reduce the level of postnatal newborn care received by their patients. We find that patient health improvements in response to both contract types are concentrated among higher trained providers. We find improvements in patient care to be concentrated among the lower trained providers. Contrary to our expectations, we also find improvements in patient health to be concentrated among the most risk averse providers, while more patient providers respond relatively little to the incentives, and these difference are most evident in the outputs contract arm. The results are opposite for patient care outcomes; risk averse providers have significantly lower rates of patient care and more patient providers provide higher quality care in response to the outputs contract. We find evidence that overconfidence among providers about their expectations about possible improvements reduces the effectiveness of both types of incentive contracts for improving both patient outcomes and patient care. Finally, we find no heterogeneous response based on non-cognitive traits.

Functional management of ankle sprains: what volume and intensity of walking is undertaken in the first week

BACKGROUND:
Acute ankle sprains are usually managed functionally, with advice to undertake progressive weight-bearing and walking. Mechanical loading is an important modular of tissue repair; therefore, the clinical effectiveness of walking after ankle sprain may be dose dependent. The intensity, magnitude and duration of load associated with current functional treatments for ankle sprain are unclear.
AIM:
To describe physical activity (PA) in the first week after ankle sprain and to compare results with a healthy control group.
METHODS:
Participants (16-65 years) with an acute ankle sprain were randomised into two groups (standard or exercise). Both groups were advised to apply ice and compression, and walk within the limits of pain. The exercise group undertook additional therapeutic exercises. PA was measured using an activPAL accelerometer, worn for 7 days after injury. Comparisons were made with a non-injured control group.
RESULTS:
The standard group were significantly less active (1.2 ± 0.4 h activity/day; 5621 ± 2294 steps/day) than the exercise (1.7 ± 0 .7 h/day, p=0.04; 7886 ± 3075 steps/day, p=0.03) and non-injured control groups (1.7 ± 0.4 h/day, p=0.02; 8844 ± 2185 steps/day, p=0.002). Also, compared with the non-injured control group, the standard and exercise groups spent less time in moderate (38.3 ± 12.7 min/day vs 14.5 ± 11.4 min/day, p=0.001 and 22.5 ± 15.9 min/day, p=0.003) and high-intensity activity (4.1 ± 6.9 min/day vs 0.1 ± 0.1 min/day, p=0.001 and 0.62 ± 1.0 min/day p=0.005).
CONCLUSION:
PA patterns are reduced in the first week after ankle sprain, which is partly ameliorated with addition of therapeutic exercises. This study represents the first step towards developing evidence-based walking prescription after acute ankle sprain.

Aerobic endurance in HIV-positive young adults and HIV-negative controls in Malawi

Background Aerobic endurance is an important aspect of physical fitness that enables individuals living with HIV to endure in the work place as well as in agricultural operations in order to earn a living and improve their quality of life. However, despite high HIV prevalence rates, the aerobic endurance status of young Malawians living with HIV remains unknown. The objective of this study was to determine the difference in VO2max between HIV-negative and HIV-positive individuals in Blantyre, Malawi. Methods Fifty five participants (17 males and 38 females) who have HIV and were not taking antiretroviral medication and 78 HIV-negative participants (45 males and 33 females) performed the Rockport submaximal treadmill exercise test. Measures of body weight, post-exercise heart rate and time to walk one mile were obtained and used to predict VO2max. Comparisons between groups were adjusted for age differences using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). Results VO2max was significantly lower in HIV-positive subjects [31.1, 28.7 - 33.5mL.kg-1.min-1(mean, 95% CI)] compared with HIV-negative subjects [56.2, 54.3 - 58.1mL.kg-1.min-1]. Conclusion Aerobic endurance was markedly reduced in HIV-positive participants compared with HIV-negative participants. Findings of the current study implicate factors associated with the HIV infection as contributors to a decreased aerobic endurance in people living with HIV.