Multiple testing in spatial epidemiology: a Bayesian approach

In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.

Comparing Different Approaches for Clustering Categorical Data

There are different ways to do cluster analysis of categorical data in the literature and the choice among them is strongly related to the aim of the researcher, if we do not take into account time and economical constraints. Main approaches for clustering are usually distinguished into model-based and distance-based methods: the former assume that objects belonging to the same class are similar in the sense that their observed values come from the same probability distribution, whose parameters are unknown and need to be estimated; the latter evaluate distances among objects by a defined dissimilarity measure and, basing on it, allocate units to the closest group. In clustering, one may be interested in the classification of similar objects into groups, and one may be interested in finding observations that come from the same true homogeneous distribution. But do both of these aims lead to the same clustering? And how good are clustering methods designed to fulfil one of these aims in terms of the other? In order to answer, two approaches, namely a latent class model (mixture of multinomial distributions) and a partition around medoids one, are evaluated and compared by Adjusted Rand Index, Average Silhouette Width and Pearson-Gamma indexes in a fairly wide simulation study. Simulation outcomes are plotted in bi-dimensional graphs via Multidimensional Scaling; size of points is proportional to the number of points that overlap and different colours are used according to the cluster membership.

Middleware for quality-based context distribution in mobile systems

The continuous advancements and enhancements of wireless systems are enabling new compelling scenarios where mobile services can adapt according to the current execution context, represented by the computational resources available at the local device, current physical location, people in physical proximity, and so forth. Such services called context-aware require the timely delivery of all relevant information describing the current context, and that introduces several unsolved complexities, spanning from low-level context data transmission up to context data storage and replication into the mobile system. In addition, to ensure correct and scalable context provisioning, it is crucial to integrate and interoperate with different wireless technologies (WiFi, Bluetooth, etc.) and modes (infrastructure-based and ad-hoc), and to use decentralized solutions to store and replicate context data on mobile devices. These challenges call for novel middleware solutions, here called Context Data Distribution Infrastructures (CDDIs), capable of delivering relevant context data to mobile devices, while hiding all the issues introduced by data distribution in heterogeneous and large-scale mobile settings. This dissertation thoroughly analyzes CDDIs for mobile systems, with the main goal of achieving a holistic approach to the design of such type of middleware solutions. We discuss the main functions needed by context data distribution in large mobile systems, and we claim the precise definition and clean respect of quality-based contracts between context consumers and CDDI to reconfigure main middleware components at runtime. We present the design and the implementation of our proposals, both in simulation-based and in real-world scenarios, along with an extensive evaluation that confirms the technical soundness of proposed CDDI solutions. Finally, we consider three highly heterogeneous scenarios, namely disaster areas, smart campuses, and smart cities, to better remark the wide technical validity of our analysis and solutions under different network deployments and quality constraints.

Verifikation der Niederschlagsvorhersage für Deutschland von 2001 - 2004

Die Verifikation numerischer Modelle ist für die Verbesserung der Quantitativen Niederschlagsvorhersage (QNV) unverzichtbar. Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist die Entwicklung von neuen Methoden zur Verifikation der Niederschlagsvorhersagen aus dem regionalen Modell der MeteoSchweiz (COSMO-aLMo) und des Globalmodells des Europäischen Zentrums für Mittelfristvorhersage (engl.: ECMWF). Zu diesem Zweck wurde ein neuartiger Beobachtungsdatensatz für Deutschland mit stündlicher Auflösung erzeugt und angewandt. Für die Bewertung der Modellvorhersagen wurde das neue Qualitätsmaß „SAL“ entwickelt. Der neuartige, zeitlich und räumlich hoch-aufgelöste Beobachtungsdatensatz für Deutschland wird mit der während MAP (engl.: Mesoscale Alpine Program) entwickelten Disaggregierungsmethode erstellt. Die Idee dabei ist, die zeitlich hohe Auflösung der Radardaten (stündlich) mit der Genauigkeit der Niederschlagsmenge aus Stationsmessungen (im Rahmen der Messfehler) zu kombinieren. Dieser disaggregierte Datensatz bietet neue Möglichkeiten für die quantitative Verifikation der Niederschlagsvorhersage. Erstmalig wurde eine flächendeckende Analyse des Tagesgangs des Niederschlags durchgeführt. Dabei zeigte sich, dass im Winter kein Tagesgang existiert und dies vom COSMO-aLMo gut wiedergegeben wird. Im Sommer dagegen findet sich sowohl im disaggregierten Datensatz als auch im COSMO-aLMo ein deutlicher Tagesgang, wobei der maximale Niederschlag im COSMO-aLMo zu früh zwischen 11-14 UTC im Vergleich zu 15-20 UTC in den Beobachtungen einsetzt und deutlich um das 1.5-fache überschätzt wird. Ein neues Qualitätsmaß wurde entwickelt, da herkömmliche, gitterpunkt-basierte Fehlermaße nicht mehr der Modellentwicklung Rechnung tragen. SAL besteht aus drei unabhängigen Komponenten und basiert auf der Identifikation von Niederschlagsobjekten (schwellwertabhängig) innerhalb eines Gebietes (z.B. eines Flusseinzugsgebietes). Berechnet werden Unterschiede der Niederschlagsfelder zwischen Modell und Beobachtungen hinsichtlich Struktur (S), Amplitude (A) und Ort (L) im Gebiet. SAL wurde anhand idealisierter und realer Beispiele ausführlich getestet. SAL erkennt und bestätigt bekannte Modelldefizite wie das Tagesgang-Problem oder die Simulation zu vieler relativ schwacher Niederschlagsereignisse. Es bietet zusätzlichen Einblick in die Charakteristiken der Fehler, z.B. ob es sich mehr um Fehler in der Amplitude, der Verschiebung eines Niederschlagsfeldes oder der Struktur (z.B. stratiform oder kleinskalig konvektiv) handelt. Mit SAL wurden Tages- und Stundensummen des COSMO-aLMo und des ECMWF-Modells verifiziert. SAL zeigt im statistischen Sinne speziell für stärkere (und damit für die Gesellschaft relevante Niederschlagsereignisse) eine im Vergleich zu schwachen Niederschlägen gute Qualität der Vorhersagen des COSMO-aLMo. Im Vergleich der beiden Modelle konnte gezeigt werden, dass im Globalmodell flächigere Niederschläge und damit größere Objekte vorhergesagt werden. Das COSMO-aLMo zeigt deutlich realistischere Niederschlagsstrukturen. Diese Tatsache ist aufgrund der Auflösung der Modelle nicht überraschend, konnte allerdings nicht mit herkömmlichen Fehlermaßen gezeigt werden. Die im Rahmen dieser Arbeit entwickelten Methoden sind sehr nützlich für die Verifikation der QNV zeitlich und räumlich hoch-aufgelöster Modelle. Die Verwendung des disaggregierten Datensatzes aus Beobachtungen sowie SAL als Qualitätsmaß liefern neue Einblicke in die QNV und lassen angemessenere Aussagen über die Qualität von Niederschlagsvorhersagen zu. Zukünftige Anwendungsmöglichkeiten für SAL gibt es hinsichtlich der Verifikation der neuen Generation von numerischen Wettervorhersagemodellen, die den Lebenszyklus hochreichender konvektiver Zellen explizit simulieren.

Production of Z bosons in proton-proton collisions at root out s = 10 TeV: Expectations for early measurements at the ATLAS experiment

The production of the Z boson in proton-proton collisions at the LHC serves as a standard candle at the ATLAS experiment during early data-taking. The decay of the Z into an electron-positron pair gives a clean signature in the detector that allows for calibration and performance studies. The cross-section of ~ 1 nb allows first LHC measurements of parton density functions. In this thesis, simulations of 10 TeV collisions at the ATLAS detector are studied. The challenges for an experimental measurement of the cross-section with an integrated luminositiy of 100 pb−1 are discussed. In preparation for the cross-section determination, the single-electron efficiencies are determined via a simulation based method and in a test of a data-driven ansatz. The two methods show a very good agreement and differ by ~ 3% at most. The ingredients of an inclusive and a differential Z production cross-section measurement at ATLAS are discussed and their possible contributions to systematic uncertainties are presented. For a combined sample of signal and background the expected uncertainty on the inclusive cross-section for an integrated luminosity of 100 pb−1 is determined to 1.5% (stat) +/- 4.2% (syst) +/- 10% (lumi). The possibilities for single-differential cross-section measurements in rapidity and transverse momentum of the Z boson, which are important quantities because of the impact on parton density functions and the capability to check for non-pertubative effects in pQCD, are outlined. The issues of an efficiency correction based on electron efficiencies as function of the electron’s transverse momentum and pseudorapidity are studied. A possible alternative is demonstrated by expanding the two-dimensional efficiencies with the additional dimension of the invariant mass of the two leptons of the Z decay.

Anpassung des Metamodells PerPot an den ausdauerorientierten Laufsport zur Trainings- und Wettkampfoptimierung

Schon seit einigen Jahrzehnten wird die Sportwissenschaft durch computergestützte Methoden in ihrer Arbeit unterstützt. Mit der stetigen Weiterentwicklung der Technik kann seit einigen Jahren auch zunehmend die Sportpraxis von deren Einsatz profitieren. Mathematische und informatische Modelle sowie Algorithmen werden zur Leistungsoptimierung sowohl im Mannschafts- als auch im Individualsport genutzt. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird das von Prof. Perl im Jahr 2000 entwickelte Metamodell PerPot an den ausdauerorientierten Laufsport angepasst. Die Änderungen betreffen sowohl die interne Modellstruktur als auch die Art der Ermittlung der Modellparameter. Damit das Modell in der Sportpraxis eingesetzt werden kann, wurde ein Kalibrierungs-Test entwickelt, mit dem die spezifischen Modellparameter an den jeweiligen Sportler individuell angepasst werden. Mit dem angepassten Modell ist es möglich, aus gegebenen Geschwindigkeitsprofilen die korrespondierenden Herzfrequenzverläufe abzubilden. Mit dem auf den Athleten eingestellten Modell können anschliessend Simulationen von Läufen durch die Eingabe von Geschwindigkeitsprofilen durchgeführt werden. Die Simulationen können in der Praxis zur Optimierung des Trainings und der Wettkämpfe verwendet werden. Das Training kann durch die Ermittlung einer simulativ bestimmten individuellen anaeroben Schwellenherzfrequenz optimal gesteuert werden. Die statistische Auswertung der PerPot-Schwelle zeigt signifikante Übereinstimmungen mit den in der Sportpraxis üblichen invasiv bestimmten Laktatschwellen. Die Wettkämpfe können durch die Ermittlung eines optimalen Geschwindigkeitsprofils durch verschiedene simulationsbasierte Optimierungsverfahren unterstützt werden. Bei der neuesten Methode erhält der Athlet sogar im Laufe des Wettkampfs aktuelle Prognosen, die auf den Geschwindigkeits- und Herzfrequenzdaten basieren, die während des Wettkampfs gemessen werden. Die mit PerPot optimierten Wettkampfzielzeiten für die Athleten zeigen eine hohe Prognosegüte im Vergleich zu den tatsächlich erreichten Zielzeiten.

Proteomic analysis of ocular surface components by use of HPLC based mass spectrometric strategies

In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde eine Top Down (TD) und zwei Bottom Up (BU) MALDI/ESI Massenspektrometrie/HPLC-Methoden entwickelt mit dem Ziel Augenoberfächenkomponenten, d.h. Tränenfilm und Konjunktivalzellen zu analysieren. Dabei wurde ein detaillierter Einblick in die Entwicklungsschritte gegeben und die Ansätze auf Eignung und methodische Grenzen untersucht. Während der TD Ansatz vorwiegend Eignung zur Analyse von rohen, weitgehend unbearbeiteten Zellproben fand, konnten mittels des BU Ansatzes bearbeitete konjunktivale Zellen, aber auch Tränenfilm mit hoher Sensitivität und Genauigkeit proteomisch analysiert werden. Dabei konnten mittels LC MALDI BU-Methode mehr als 200 Tränenproteine und mittels der LC ESI Methode mehr als 1000 Tränen- sowie konjunktivale Zellproteine gelistet werden. Dabei unterschieden sich ESI- and MALDI- Methoden deutlich bezüglich der Quantität und Qualität der Ergebnisse, weshalb differente proteomische Anwendungsgebiete der beiden Methoden vorgeschlagen wurden. Weiterhin konnten mittels der entwickelten LC MALDI/ESI BU Plattform, basierend auf den Vorteilen gegenüber dem TD Ansatz, therapeutische Einflüsse auf die Augenoberfläche mit Fokus auf die topische Anwendung von Taurin sowie Taflotan® sine, untersucht werden. Für Taurin konnten entzündungshemmende Effekte, belegt durch dynamische Veränderungen des Tränenfilms, dokumentiert werden. Außerdem konnten vorteilhafte, konzentrationsabhängige Wirkweisen auch in Studien an konjunktival Zellen gezeigt werden. Für die Anwendung von konservierungsmittelfreien Taflotan® sine, konnte mittels LC ESI BU Analyse eine Regenerierung der Augenoberfläche in Patienten mit Primärem Offenwinkel Glaukom (POWG), welche unter einem “Trockenem Auge“ litten nach einem therapeutischen Wechsel von Xalatan® basierend auf dynamischen Tränenproteomveränderungen gezeigt werden. Die Ergebnisse konnten mittels Microarray (MA) Analysen bestätigt werden. Sowohl in den Taurin Studien, als auch in der Taflotan® sine Studie, konnten charakteristische Proteine der Augenoberfläche dokumentiert werden, welche eine objektive Bewertung des Gesundheitszustandes der Augenoberfläche ermöglichen. Eine Kombination von Taflotan® sine und Taurin wurde als mögliche Strategie zur Therapie des Trockenen Auges bei POWG Patienten vorgeschlagen und diskutiert.

Novel materials for direct X-ray detectors based on semiconducting organic polymers

Conventional inorganic materials for x-ray radiation sensors suffer from several drawbacks, including their inability to cover large curved areas, me- chanical sti ffness, lack of tissue-equivalence and toxicity. Semiconducting organic polymers represent an alternative and have been employed as di- rect photoconversion material in organic diodes. In contrast to inorganic detector materials, polymers allow low-cost and large area fabrication by sol- vent based methods. In addition their processing is compliant with fexible low-temperature substrates. Flexible and large-area detectors are needed for dosimetry in medical radiotherapy and security applications. The objective of my thesis is to achieve optimized organic polymer diodes for fexible, di- rect x-ray detectors. To this end polymer diodes based on two different semi- conducting polymers, polyvinylcarbazole (PVK) and poly(9,9-dioctyluorene) (PFO) have been fabricated. The diodes show state-of-the-art rectifying be- haviour and hole transport mobilities comparable to reference materials. In order to improve the X-ray stopping power, high-Z nanoparticle Bi2O3 or WO3 where added to realize a polymer-nanoparticle composite with opti- mized properities. X-ray detector characterization resulted in sensitivties of up to 14 uC/Gy/cm2 for PVK when diodes were operated in reverse. Addition of nanoparticles could further improve the performance and a maximum sensitivy of 19 uC/Gy/cm2 was obtained for the PFO diodes. Compared to the pure PFO diode this corresponds to a five-fold increase and thus highlights the potentiality of nanoparticles for polymer detector design. In- terestingly the pure polymer diodes showed an order of magnitude increase in sensitivity when operated in forward regime. The increase was attributed to a different detection mechanism based on the modulation of the diodes conductivity.

A Hybrid Multimodal Non-Rigid Registration of MR Images Based on Diffeomorphic Demons

n this paper we present a novel hybrid approach for multimodal medical image registration based on diffeomorphic demons. Diffeomorphic demons have proven to be a robust and efficient way for intensity-based image registration. A very recent extension even allows to use mutual information (MI) as a similarity measure to registration multimodal images. However, due to the intensity correspondence uncertainty existing in some anatomical parts, it is difficult for a purely intensity-based algorithm to solve the registration problem. Therefore, we propose to combine the resulting transformations from both intensity-based and landmark-based methods for multimodal non-rigid registration based on diffeomorphic demons. Several experiments on different types of MR images were conducted, for which we show that a better anatomical correspondence between the images can be obtained using the hybrid approach than using either intensity information or landmarks alone.

Influence of different professional prophylactic methods on fluorescence measurements for detection of occlusal caries

This study aimed to evaluate the influence of professional prophylactic methods on the DIAGNOdent 2095, DIAGNOdent 2190 and VistaProof performance in detecting occlusal caries. Assessments were performed in 110 permanent teeth at baseline and after bicarbonate jet or prophylactic paste and rinsing. Performance in terms of sensitivity improved after rinsing of the occlusal surfaces when the prophylactic paste was used. However, the sodium bicarbonate jet did not significantly influence the performance of the fluorescence-based methods. It can be concluded that different professional prophylactic methods can significantly influence the performance of fluorescence-based methods for occlusal caries detection.

EFFICIENT EVALUATION OF RANKING PROCEDURES WHEN THE NUMBER OF UNITS IS LARGE WITH APPLICATION TO SNP IDENTIFICATION

Simulation-based assessment is a popular and frequently necessary approach to evaluation of statistical procedures. Sometimes overlooked is the ability to take advantage of underlying mathematical relations and we focus on this aspect. We show how to take advantage of large-sample theory when conducting a simulation using the analysis of genomic data as a motivating example. The approach uses convergence results to provide an approximation to smaller-sample results, results that are available only by simulation. We consider evaluating and comparing a variety of ranking-based methods for identifying the most highly associated SNPs in a genome-wide association study, derive integral equation representations of the pre-posterior distribution of percentiles produced by three ranking methods, and provide examples comparing performance. These results are of interest in their own right and set the framework for a more extensive set of comparisons.

Performance of fluorescence methods, radiographic examination and ICDAS II on occlusal surfaces in vitro

This study compared the performance of fluorescence-based methods, radiographic examination, and International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS) II on occlusal surfaces. One hundred and nineteen permanent human molars were assessed twice by 2 experienced dentists using the laser fluorescence (LF and LFpen) and fluorescence camera (FC) devices, ICDAS II and bitewing radiographs (BW). After measuring, the teeth were histologically prepared and assessed for caries extension. The sensitivities for dentine caries detection were 0.86 (FC), 0.78 (LFpen), 0.73 (ICDAS II), 0.51 (LF) and 0.34 (BW). The specificities were 0.97 (BW), 0.89 (LF), 0.65 (ICDAS II), 0.63 (FC) and 0.56 (LFpen). BW presented the highest values of likelihood ratio (LR)+ (12.47) and LR- (0.68). Rank correlations with histology were 0.53 (LF), 0.52 (LFpen), 0.41 (FC), 0.59 (ICDAS II) and 0.57 (BW). The area under the ROC curve varied from 0.72 to 0.83. Inter- and intraexaminer intraclass correlation values were respectively 0.90 and 0.85 (LF), 0.93 and 0.87 (LFpen) and 0.85 and 0.76 (FC). The ICDAS II kappa values were 0.51 (interexaminer) and 0.61 (intraexaminer). The BW kappa values were 0.50 (interexaminer) and 0.62 (intraexaminer). The Bland and Altman limits of agreement were 46.0 and 38.2 (LF), 55.6 and 40.0 (LFpen) and 1.12 and 0.80 (FC), for intra- and interexaminer reproducibilities. The posttest probability for dentine caries detection was high for BW and LF. In conclusion, LFpen, FC and ICDAS II presented better sensitivity and LF and BW better specificity. ICDAS II combined with BW showed the best performance and is the best combination for detecting caries on occlusal surfaces.

Investigating the effect of construction management strategies on project greenhouse gas emissions using interactive simulation

The challenges posed by global climate change are motivating the investigation of strategies that can reduce the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of products and processes. While new construction materials and technologies have received significant attention, there has been limited emphasis on understanding how construction processes can be best managed to reduce GHG emissions. Unexpected disruptive events tend to adversely impact construction costs and delay project completion. They also tend to increase project GHG emissions. The objective of this paper is to investigate ways in which project GHG emissions can be reduced by appropriate management of disruptive events. First, an empirical analysis of construction data from a specific highway construction project is used to illustrate the impact of unexpected schedule delays in increasing project GHG emissions. Next, a simulation based methodology is described to assess the effectiveness of alternative project management strategies in reducing GHG emissions. The contribution of this paper is that it explicitly considers projects emissions, in addition to cost and project duration, in developing project management strategies. Practical application of the method discussed in this paper will help construction firms reduce their project emissions through strategic project management, and without significant investment in new technology. In effect, this paper lays the foundation for best practices in construction management that will optimize project cost and duration, while minimizing GHG emissions.

The art to keep in touch: The ''good use'' of Lagrange multipliers

Physically-based modeling for computer animation allows to produce more realistic motions in less time without requiring the expertise of skilled animators. But, a computer animation is not only a numerical simulation based on classical mechanics since it follows a precise story-line. One common way to define aims in an animation is to add geometric constraints. There are several methods to manage these constraints within a physically-based framework. In this paper, we present an algorithm for constraints handling based on Lagrange multipliers. After few remarks on the equations of motion that we use, we present a first algorithm proposed by Platt. We show with a simple example that this method is not reliable. Our contribution consists in improving this algorithm to provide an efficient and robust method to handle simultaneous active constraints.

Non-ignorable loss to follow-up: correcting mortality estimates based on additional outcome ascertainment

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is a common problem in many epidemiological studies. In antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), mortality estimates can be biased if the LTFU mechanism is non-ignorable, that is, mortality differs between lost and retained patients. In this setting, routine procedures for handling missing data may lead to biased estimates. To appropriately deal with non-ignorable LTFU, explicit modeling of the missing data mechanism is needed. This can be based on additional outcome ascertainment for a sample of patients LTFU, for example, through linkage to national registries or through survey-based methods. In this paper, we demonstrate how this additional information can be used to construct estimators based on inverse probability weights (IPW) or multiple imputation. We use simulations to contrast the performance of the proposed estimators with methods widely used in HIV cohort research for dealing with missing data. The practical implications of our approach are illustrated using South African ART data, which are partially linkable to South African national vital registration data. Our results demonstrate that while IPWs and proper imputation procedures can be easily constructed from additional outcome ascertainment to obtain valid overall estimates, neglecting non-ignorable LTFU can result in substantial bias. We believe the proposed estimators are readily applicable to a growing number of studies where LTFU is appreciable, but additional outcome data are available through linkage or surveys of patients LTFU. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.